Gymnastics: Who will win the WAG Team Event at London 2012?

[Maofan7]

Well, with Iordache and Komova producing Amanars in time for the Olympics, and Izbasa a 6.5 Cheng, things are starting to get very interesting.

Who will win the WAG Team Event?

EDIT

Some people have been getting error messages when voting. However, don't worry, as Floskate (who is an adminsitrator/moderator and who has looked into the issue) has pointed out in post 4 below, the votes are still counting. Its just that a gremlin in the system is bringing up the error message.

[Buzz]

The country I think will win is different from the one i want to win.

[gingercrush]

Hmm I can't seem to use the poll.

Keep getting this:

gingercrush, you do not have permission to access this page.

Anyway I do think the US will win or at the least have the best chance to win. Obviously three amanars is huge no matter how you look at it. Combine that with steady high 14 or over 15 Beam routines and two low-mid 15s on bars and one high 14 or just over 15 bar set and they're looking good. Whilst I think the judges at US Trials did a terrible job judging floor I do think Raisman and Weiber are very capable of scoring 15+ floor routines. I am unsure about Douglas but she or Maroney could post at the least a high 14 floor routine.

I'd love Russia to win. On their side is two high 15 to over 16 UB routines and a low-mid 15 UB routine from Grishina. Vault could well be two or more amanars. At the least whatever they do on Vault against the US, they can make up with their UB routines. Hence it comes down to beam and floor. On Beam the Russians are better but they're prone to falter and thus US have an advantage here. On floor they're looking weaker than the US. Russia are capable on floor I just think the Americans have more difficulty and at this stage more likely to not falter.

I'd also love Romania to win. They have the potential for three high scoring beam routines and follow that with at least two high scoring floor routines (depending on how Izbasa is) and one high 14 or even 15 floor routine from Ponor. On vault they may well have an amanar and Ponor has a good DTY, Izbasa also has a good vault. But their Uneven Bars is a huge weakness. Iordache looks to have a mid 14 UB routine but the other two routines could be low 14s or even into the 13s and no matter how good Romania may be on Floor and Beam and what they could throw on Vault. You can't win Gold when you're at such a disadvantage from everyone else. Their UB is so bad. They could even be last amongst who make the final. Good for a medal though.

China is a mystery. They can throw great Beam routines, good scoring UB routines and difficult floor scores. At the least they'll carry high scoring DTYs. They have the ability to medal and win but every member of the team are vulnerable to make mistakes. I don't think they can afford to make mistakes and expect to win. I'm not even sure they can medal with how Romania are looking everywhere besides UB.

This is likely for the US from what we've seen of US trials.

US
Beam 14.8, 14.8, 15.0
Floor 15.2, 15.1, 14.9
Vault 16.1, 15.8, 15.7
UB 15.5, 15.3, 15.0

This what Romania can do from we've seen so far

Beam 15.4, 15.3, 14.9
Floor 15.2, 15.0, 14.7 (Going off Bullimar not what Izbasa could do)
UB 14.6, 14.1, 14.0
Vault 15.1, 15.0, 14.9 (Not counting upgrades)

Russia

UB 16.0, 15.8, 15.3
Vault 15.1, 15.0, 15.0

I just don't know what to do with their floor and beam scores at this stage but if they were clean
Beam 15.2, 15.0, 14.8
Floor 15.1, 14.9, 14.8

China

UB 15.5, 15.3, 14.9 (assumes Xexin and she goes clean)
Beam 15.3, 15.1, 14.8
Floor 15.1, 14.9, 14.7
Vault 15.0, 14.9, 14.8

[floskate]

Hmmmm wierd. You can vote and the votes are being counted but for some reason it's linking to a thread in the archives after voting which will be why you're getting that message as you have to be a subscriber to access archived threads. Wierd

[Maofan7]

Hmmmm wierd. You can vote and the votes are being counted but for some reason it's linking to a thread in the archives after voting which will be why you're getting that message as you have to be a subscriber to access archived threads. Wierd

Thanks for looking into the problem, Floskate.

[Loves_Shizuka]

Yea, I voted and was taken to a thread about the Euros being on Canadian TV Randomness.

This is the USA's to lose. And on this one occasion, I wouldn't mind them getting it

Still, if Russia somehow managed to nab it, I'd be over the moon.

Or China. But now i'm probably being ridiculous.

[cris_c]

I got this message: you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:

Your user account may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else's post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation.

[ilovesalchows]

I got that message too.

I must be missing something somewhere about all these vault upgrades. I saw the Iordache training one that looked okay, but the VIka one has me ??? I actually watched the video a couple times to see if I was missing something. I can't see her land because she is blocked by the horses. I guess we will see if Romania is competing harder vaults on a competition surface this weekend. I actually think Romania might be the ones to spoil the US party, they always manage to spoil at the Olympics.

If everyone has Amanars all around it will just be who can hit 12 for 12.

[Rob]

Yea, I voted and was taken to a thread about the Euros being on Canadian TV Randomness..

Same here.

[judgejudy27]

It is the U.S's to lose. They picked the perfect team and they have no weakness really.

[Aceon6]

Assuming everyone's clean, the US has a good shot. Problem is with 3 up 3 count. One has to expect one or more teams to have a fall on beam or UB.

[poths]

I think it's a straight up USA vs Romania battle.

The Russians are possibly the more naturally talented team, but they are a bunch of nut jobs.

Romania will get 13.9, 14.0 14.5 on bars which you;d think will kill them.

But Then, I don't see more than 14.6, 14.9 15.3 for the US bars.... that's a difference of 2.4 points! One would assume that would be enough but if the vault gap is closed to only .5....then the 3 points between them will be steadily eaten in Beam and Floor where Romania will probably gain a point on both. Ergo........all it's going to take is one fall from bars/beam/botched pass on floor for ROM to take it.
Can't believe I'm considering ROM as the Team champs after the past 4 years of tripe!
It's going to a nail biter!

[chipso1]

But Then, I don't see more than 14.6, 14.9 15.3 for the US bars....

Kyla Ross hasn't scored below a 15 on bars all year. What makes you think she'll be in the 14's in London?

[Spareoom]

We all know that scores will be lower at the Olympics than they were at Nats/Trials, but I wouldn't take off more than 3-4 tenths. Even that is a lot. I just have a hard time seeing identical routines scoring a whole half point lower, even though we all know Nats/Trials scores are crazy inflated, lol! But who am I; what do I know. :p

I think that if the USA is going to win an Olympic TF any time soon, it's going to be in London. We all know Beijing would be China's if they had a good comp (and they did) and 2004 was just unlucky with injuries. If they can keep it together, it would be hard to deny them the gold in London.

BUT. Stranger things have happened! At this point I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst, i.e. Aly falling on beam and floor, Gabby missing bars, Kyla falling off beam and McKayla crashing her Amanar. :p

Either way, London TF is going to take about ten years off my life. :p

[Karpenko]

^ I know me too. I want the US team to win and think they are the best based on what we've seen this year, but they are still so so young. That makes me nervous, but they have quite a few very good routines. 96 Team Finals I was just as nervous (and had barely been a gymnastics fan long at all ) as this.

Maroney on vault is a big standout like Liukin on UB in 08 for the team, but all other routines are potentially very stable and high scoring too. I hope they stay strong and give us all a great show. I'm especially nervous for Kyla Ross and Gabby Douglas, I think that gymnasts like Aly Raisman and McKayla Maroney are going to thrive and attack now that they know they can officially call themselves Olympians. Just getting there was the hard part for them, now that Kyla and especially Gabby are there and being looked at as they are with all of this expectation and pressure.. I really wish them the best. I hope so so much we don't see anybody go down and get hurt, get burned out, bad negative energy or anything like that. Can we please for once in a blue moon not have some kind of massive blow to the team before the competition even starts this time?

I also really hope Russia gets it together in time, I think they add so much to this competition and will be especially crushed if they have a repeat of Beijing again this time.

Romania is going to be right there, and probably wont miss many routines at all. I think they will win the silver, but if both US and Russia hit I think they will be 3rd.

China I have no freaking clue. Like at all. Maybe 2nd, maybe 4th? I think taking HKX could be a big gamble that'll either propel them in either direction. I hope that Yao Jinnan looks on form and is a contender like in Tokyo, she showed an amazing amount of potential at that competition.

[judgejudy27]

China is the biggest X factor in this competition. There have been various Chinese gymnast sightings this year, few of those positive unfortunately, but still nobody really knows what they are capable of. It is obvious by this poll (0 votes to win) that expectations arent high, but they might shock the heck out of people in the end, and atleast find their way to some color medal.

[Scintillation]

I think the US will finally take it. I just have a good feeling about these girls...they know how to go out there and crush it.

[caseyedwards]

I think it's a straight up USA vs Romania battle.

The Russians are possibly the more naturally talented team, but they are a bunch of nut jobs.

:

I'd rather see the term head cases than nut jobs!

[bek]

I think the US will finally take it. I just have a good feeling about these girls...they know how to go out there and crush it.

I don't know. They may take it. But some of the arogance leaves me hope. Komova and Paseka both landed Amanars at an internal competition in Russia....I think funnily enough if they have two Amanars really it would be Russias to lose.

[gingercrush]

I don't know. They may take it. But some of the arogance leaves me hope. Komova and Paseka both landed Amanars at an internal competition in Russia....I think funnily enough if they have two Amanars really it would be Russias to lose.

I think Amanars are the least of Russians problem and their UB scores make up for possible lack of amanars anyway. The big worry for Russia for me is what happens on Beam and Floor. The US I don't think have the highest scoring Beam routines though I've probably been pessimistic at what their beam scores will be. But I don't see Russia doing much better on beam and of course I'd worry far more the Russians will fall on beam than I do the US. I really think the US have an advantage on floor though. Weiber and Raisman pack so much difficulty that even despite what deductions their floor routines may have I can see both going over 15.1. Douglas isn't far behind either.

Komova is shaky on floor, Mustafina I think will struggle on floor. Afanasyeva is great on floor and very capable of 15.2+ and Grishina if she could hit on floor would be great too. But I really only see one 15+ routine from the Russians.