Another thought on He Kexin, I would be more in agreement with them naming her to the team if she had a real shot at winning another bars gold if she hits in finals. However she doesnt IMO. Even if she hits with her current work her E score will be so much lower than Komova and Mustafina she still with lose even with her massive D score, unless both make a major error. She literally looked as labored and heavy on bars as say Jordyn Wieber these days, only differences being doing over a point more in difficulty and being more likely to fall.
I am not saying she wont be the one named, others have way more inside information on that than me, I just hope she isnt is all.
A routine with 7.4 D score is huge, and will be the highest D score in the world as things stand now. He Kexin is more than likely to score a 8.6 E score, so a 16.00 points + routine (for a hit routine), this will put pressure on both Russia and USA. On top of that she will be a strong contender for the UB title. That is a strong incentive to select her.
The selection will depend on the hit ratio for UB from He.
She didnt even get an 8.6 E score at her own Nationals for a hit routine and you think she will get that at the Olympics, LOL!
For eg, Sui Lu got a 7.95 E score for this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP6a96lgOSY and I think E-scores have been higher internationally even if people fell off the beam.
This was He Kexin's routine at nationals: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbBZ7HGmGK0 . I would suspect it would score higher than an 8.55 internationally. (how much, I don't know)
So I would bet that He Kexin will be able to get 8.6+ as an E score if the routine is executed to about what she did at Nationals. (how often this happens, I don't know)
If that routine gets an E score any higher than 8.6 than I hope the judges are planning on giving the Russians a 9.6 E score. She muscles every kip and every cast to handstand something fierce, many of her releases are low now, and she looks laboured and heavy in all she does now.
I want Jiang Yuyuan on the team but I agree it's more likely to be He Kexin
China has Yao Jinnan and Huang Qiushuang as their man AAers but HQS is RIDICULOUSLY inconsistent and YJN seems injured.
I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the podium, and I think it'd be a mini-surprise if a Chinese makes the AA rostrum as well.
It is He Kexin on the team. I saw it announced on the couch gymnast website....the team is
Nooo, JYY She is my favorite Chinese gymnast.
I know, I was peeved about that too. I really thought she'd make the team--she is their designated team captain.
That sucks. Watch He Kexin fall on bars and them look like dopes come the Games.
Iordache with her Amanar is the favourite for me.
Beam 15.7 (scored at euros QF)
Floor 15.4 (scored at Euros QF)
Aside from her new vault, she has scored all of the above during the year at Int competitions. I can't see anyone else scoring over 61!
Wieber and Douglas will not get near 15 on floor, despite what their trials/nats score may say. I don't see Gabby scoring more than 14.7 on beam her bars will be low 15 as opposed to the high 15's that trials gave her.
Iordache/Mustafna/Komova with Wieber 4th and Jinnan 5th, Gabby rounding out the top 6. Good quality competition.
Just to add, as much as I hope Izbasa does the AA, I just can't get away for the feeling that Bulimar is going to be the surprise of these championships.
If she has an Amanar.....
59.6 - could sneak a medal.
If Iordache has an Amanar and can produce a 14.6 bars she definitely becomes the favorite. Wieber wont get much or any better than a 14.6 bars for a hit routine at the Olympics probably, an 8.2 E score is about what the quality of bars work she received an absurd 15.35 for at the trials would produce. Iordache will easily outscore Wieber on beam and floor even if she hits cold like the World AA last year. The Russians would need to bury Iordache on bars since with an Amanar she will easily outscore them everywhere else. Douglas still has a shaky and weak beam even when she stays on, and her floor is good but not outstanding, same with her Amanar.
The EF's are so bloody interesting too!!
Tweddle (oh sweet Jesus please let her medal)
Ponor/Izbasa/Bulimar (why can there only be 2!!!)
Essentially giving Romania a fck load of medals.
Really interested to see Izbasa's upgrades and if she can make floor EF over Ponor.
Would also love to see Hannah Whelan in the Beam EF and whilst it's probably way too much to ask, the FX final too
The Romanian trio of Izbasa/Ponor and Iordache could win 5 ef medals between them.
Aaarrggh with the teams gradually being announced this is getting harder and harder to predict. I LOVE Komova - bah to the haters, when she hits her gymnastics is as beautiful as you will see in this era - but I LOVE Musty for her mentality, divaness and general fabulousness despite her egg whisk twists. But then I also LOVE Gabby Douglas who has the potential to become one of the sports biggest stars if she hits in London . And then I also LOVE Iordache who reminds me so much of Nadia at times, and again, could become a huge star in London Ahhh the of it all....
Ok fanboy squealing over, this is really THE most exciting AA competition I can ever remember anticipating and I'm kind of bummed I'm on holiday in Turkey while it's on - well not too much as I can always go to a bar and watch So a breakdown as I see it:
Komova - Best form overall on all 4 events, brilliant bars and if a russian is going to turn up with an amanar in London my bet is it will be her. Beam is a massive issue but if she hits with the patterson dismount, she'll score big. Floor is my main worry but we just haven't seen enough post-injury to make a fair judgement. Potentially can go 61+ AA
Musty - If she hits UB she can go 16+, she's been drilling some really good - for her - DTY's, but I'm really scared she's going to end her career trying to land a freakin' amanar. Beam is solid and her floor is progressing well. She will bust a gut for an OGM and is so mentally solid. Despite everything you just can't rule her out. Russian cup scores indicate she's capable of a 60+ AA if she hits everything perfectly and that is with only a DTY.
Douglas - Ok amanar that seems to be improving and becoming more controlled and consistent. Won't get a 16 like trials but she could easily get 15.8 - 15.9. Brilliant flashy bars that have the potential to score high 15's, a beam that if she hits - and I'm well aware that this is a HUGE if - can go 15+ and a floor that's as camp and trashy and frankly chavvy as anything I have ever seen in the sport. Trust me, if she nails that in London it will go down an absolute storm. While the purists head for the hills she can bring the house down. It's all there for her but she HAS to hit everything!
Iordache - so she now has an amanar and it doesn't look that skary but she has to do it in competition. Bars is the question but she is proven on floor and beam so with the amanar she's definitely a contender and I do expect her to go 4 for 4 AA. A medal can be hers and it could be gold.
Now Wieber I am NOT a fan of. I find her gymnastics heavy and lumbering but you cannot deny that she is mentally a rock and will be hard to beat. If she wins, that's fine by me if she deserves it but IMO it is going to take others to faulter for her to win the OGM. I just don't see her getting the scores she has been in the US come London.
Whatever happens this should be an awesome competition!!
^Yup, the best thing about London's AA is how potentially open it could be. Beijing was always going to be a two horse race. Realistically, I think there are about 5 women who could win gold (I'm thinking two Americans, two Russians and Iordache) at least. It's almost like the old days. Almost
What also makes it exciting are all of these last minute upgrades, in Beijing and all of the other Olympic AA the routines were set in stone all year. We aren't going to fully know what some of these ladies are doing for some of the routines until they get to London. I'm super excited, the first rotation is going to be crucial for almost all of the gymnasts in contention.
(also bummed about JYY Hopefully HKX hits this time..)