I'd be thrilled for Gabby to win too. I just wish she had a new/better FX.
I'd be thrilled for Gabby to win too. I just wish she had a new/better FX.
I voted for Komova, but I'd rather see Mustafina or Douglas win. It would be an amazing comeback story for Aliya, and I would be elated if Gabby could finally put it all together on the sport's biggest stage.
^I confess, you're probably right
Sorry, treat me as completely out of the water for this, but how should the women be ranked, between "contender" and "darkhorse"? (I tried to classify them; please let me know if you think I'm off or not)
From discussion, it seems that for contender, you get Komova, Mustafina, Wieber and Douglas.
Komova and Mustafina's big issue being what they'll have ready in time for the Olympics (Amanar or not) plus their injury issues, and a Q on Komova's competitive nerve.
Wieber seems to have the Amanar and competitive nerve, but her bars score will set her down somewhat.
Douglas has the Amanar and a solid bars set, but her competitive nerves are in question.
I don't really know if any of them has super-special beam or floor compared to the other, so I'd put those all as about equal and variable to how execution is on the day.
Then on the dark-horses, you have:
Iordache - big questions on what she'll have. Romanians claim she has Amanar, she apparently doesn't have a strong bars set, her beam is great, I'm not sure what her floor looks like. Untested as well.
Jinnan - the reigning AA bronze medalist. No Amanar for sure, but a good beam. Floor and bars aren't too weak, since she has added a new skill to her bars. I'm not sure if she's solid.
Huang - apparently the Chinese claim she has an Amanar too. Decent bars, and I'm not sure on floor or beam. Big question on nerve.
DLL/JYY - no clue on where they're at. DLL did win the AA at a very stingy Chinese nationals (Yao withdrew), but I don't see either coming into the picture. Very questionable Amanar for JYY (none for DLL) and the other three events are solid but not spectacular.
Grishina/Ross/Raisman - all potential darkhorses to win but will likely be ignored for the contenders above.
It really is a question on two events, it looks like. If you have both a great bars set and an Amanar, you look to be in good shape to win (because that's where the greatest variations in D-score are). I'm not sure on floor and beam, since the scores seem to bunch up much more closely than on the aforementioned two events.
I think there will be some resistance to a third consecutive U.S. AA champ, so I'm expecting the Russians to get the benefit of the doubt.
I would rate vault as my favorite event, but even so, it's discouraging that one vault like the amanar can have so much impact. I wish two vaults were (again) required, so that outstanding vaulters like Maroney were rewarded but above average vaulters like Wieber had a more tempered advantage than they do currently.
How in the world did I miss this thread?!?!
I think if everyone hits, it'll be Komova, Mustafina, Weiber but I think Komova is the most likely to suffer from nerves, so I think it may wind up Mustafina, Weiber, Komova. I really want Gabby to win though (since I don't think Aly will do the all around in prelims ). And if an American doesn't win (I'm not ashamed to admit I'm a total homer when it comes to gymnastics), then I would like Mustafina to win.At this point I do feel Jordyn has the best chance of winning, but she's going up against two extremely gifted Russian gymnasts who will not make it easy for her. IMO Aliya and Viktoria are the two most talented AAers in the world right now and I'd be happy if either of them won.
That was me.But if everyone else caves under the immense pressure, Aly will be the one to still hit. And I can't remember which person said they'd laugh if she ended up winning, but I'll be cackling with them if she does.
Roll Tide, y'all!
I dont see Wieber beating a hit Douglas anymore. Wieber's bars scores at Trials were grossly inflated, at the Games if they both hit Douglas will score atleast .8 higher on bars. Wieber wont outscore by enough on the other events to make that up.
A hit Komova should still beat both. I dont know how a hit Iordache will stack up until I see if she has an Amanar and has improved her bars to something approaching Wieber level.
Mustafina is being overrated. She doesnt have the difficulty right now to have much of a chance, and it is not like she is the best executor either.
Iordache has a great Beam routine a highly skilled Floor with a Silivas tumble. She is golden. I think she is a huge medal contender on both floor and beam and is this an amanar? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyoRV...ayer_embedded#
I also am not pessimistic about Weiber. If she was overscored on Bars then so was Douglas. I also see no way how Douglas will get those floor scores and her beam was generous too.
Douglas's beam scores were low. How was she overscored. Her floor was scored fine, it should score about the same was Wieber who has exactly the same E score. And the gap in their bars scores will be way more than it was if they both hit like they did on day 2.
Her floor was scored with just 0.700 in deductions. I'm sorry but that is never going to happen at the Olympics. Douglas's beam score for a far less than perfect Beam was 14.850. Sorry but that is too high as well.
Anyone know how the Chinese AAers are looking? Everyone's talking about the Russians and the Americans as favorites for the AA, but how about Yao Jinnan? I was really impressed with her at last year's Worlds when she got the bronze with a fall--if she hadn't fallen, she would have beat Wieber and Komova outright.
Deng Linlin seems to have a DTY, good beam routine, okay floor but has rather poor Uneven Bars form. I can't see her making it over the other two.
Quishuang has recently landed an amanar. How successful it is who knows. Having an amanar does make her a contender. She is a good gymnast with good skills everywhere. Her Uneven Bars are really good. However, she is very prone to making mistakes. But if she could somehow get it together who knows how well she could do.
Jinnan has been injured and probably injured herself attempting amanars. She upgraded her bars from Tokyo. She is good on Uneven Bars, has a great beam and very good floor. But I question how fit she is. A medal contender though.
London really is the most open AA field for a long time. If everything goes right then I expect Weiber, Douglas, Komova, Mustafina, Quishuang, Jinnan and Iordache battling for the medals.
Weiber and Douglas both have amanars. Weiber is solid and could score really well on floor and do enough on Beam and Bars to win. Douglas has maybe a better amanar than Weiber and better Uneven Bars. Beam is slightly weak for her and she is vulnerable on it. I also think she is going to find that floor routine be below or just over 15.000 rather than the obscene overscoring at US trials. (Floor as a whole was grossly overscored at US trials I actually think it is the event judges needed to be harshest on)
Komova and Mustafina may or may not have amanars. Both possess difficult and clean Uneven Bar routines. Mustafina needs the amanar more than Komova due to probable problems on Floor and lack of difficulty on beam. I have no doubt Mustafina will put her body on the line for that AA Gold. Komova is the only gymnast who I think can win Gold without an amanar. She has a huge Uneven Bars score and can perform a huge beam score. Floor is a slight worry. Maybe doesn't have the difficulty of others. But a clean floor would still score well. Komovas issues are nerves not ability.
Larissa Iordache has potentially the highest beam and floor score of any of the AAers. I consider her a favourite to win Gold on both apparatuses. Throw an amanar into the mix and she becomes a real contender. Except she is Romanian and they have poor Uneven Bars. If Romania could throw Uneven Bars routines like everyone else then they'd always be in the mix for AA and Team Golds. I just hope her Bars are near 15.000.
Yao Jinnan is rather unknown due to sitting out most of the season due to injuries. She didn't participate at Chinese nationals. Earlier in the year she increased difficulty on Bars with a unique skill. Bars for her should be over 15.000. Beam is really good, silver medalist in Tokyo. Huge difficulty and lovely clean form. Floor last year she had 6.0 difficulty. Big question is vault. She may potentially have an amanar but far more likely we'll see a DTY. That is going to harm her against others contending for medals.
Quishuang. Best event is bars. Capable of a 15+ score and has probably upgraded since Tokyo. Like all the Chinese they all possess huge beam difficulty and she has good floor difficulty as well. Potential/probable Amanar makes her a contender. Like Komova issues are nerves except she is very capable of headcasing on all four apparatus. Out of the seven listed she seems most unlikely to medal.
Raisman, Grishina and Deng Linlin are all capable of sneaking past follow countrywomen if they falter.
Raisman packs huge floor difficulty and huge beam difficulty and can perform amanars. But Uneven Bars is far too weak and she is likely way too messy to be a medal contender. Similar to Iordache perhaps.
Grishina is a headcase. Could produce an amanar I suppose but seems unlikely. Fantastic on Beam and Floor but prone to miss on both of those. Also has huge scoring potential on Uneven Bars. Capable of 15.3+ Cleanest technique of everyone as well. Her gymnastics is vastly underrated. I just find she is more unlikely to qualify simply because Mustafina and Komova possess higher bar scores. If she performed perfectly she would be in strong contention for a medal.
Deng Linlin. She won Chinese nationals. I love her. I liked her in Beijing. Has solid scores but weaker on Uneven Bars. I just find it unlikely she'll qualify over either Qiushuang or Jinnan and even if she does make it. Not a medal contender unless she produces way more difficulty than previously.
Has China named its 5th gymnast yet. Jiang Yuyuan I would think is a possible medal contender for the AA if she gets that spot, if she somehow gets to do AA for China in prelims and qualifies. She certainly would be more of a potential contender than Deng Linlin IMO, as Deng has never been close to an AA medal and is weak on bars.
I agree. I honestly felt like after worlds last year that her spot was kind of a waste given how she performed, and then we are down to 5 gymnasts this year. It has potential to be an even bigger disaster this time, and fate has not been nice to her the past two years. I would go with Jiang, because she can also do reasonable routines on the other events and while maybe not as potentially high as HKX she could also do a solid UB routine in team finals. I hope JYY gets it, I've always rooted for her awesome personality and she was the world AA silver medalist two years ago. If I were to pick the team I think its a much safer bet to take her. I haven't had a good feeling about China and the Olympics all year long, but I do love their quality gymnastics and think the potential to medal is there.
Wouldnt a hit routine by JYY score higher than a laboured, sloppy (sorry that is what she is now, even when she hits) routine with a fall from He Kexin (which is atleast 50% likely what you would get) on bars even with her huge D score. If that is true you are basically rolling the dice which will even give you a better bars score, unless you convince yourself He Kexin is "likely" to stay on after the last 2 Worlds, and JYY can help the team on any event except beam. I dont know what the Chinese will do but I definitely hope JYY gets it rather than the washed up 1 event wonder.