Fabulous. Absolutely fabulous. I wonder how many USFSA officials are second-guessing themselves now. If he can bring that to Nationals he can really shake it up.
The grin on his face when he lands the 4T is just awesome! He didn't just nail it either - he NAILED it. Never any doubt he would land it, it looked as natural as anything! And that 3A-3T was lovely.
A couple of the other jumps were wonky, but that's okay. And he got edge-called on the flip again. Hmm. But looking at that and the levels and so on...again, this is easily a 150+ program. Which is just...wow.
Josh totally killed the competition! WOW! So thrilled to see him attempt and wonderfully succeed 4t! He's really got the superior jumping ability.
That edge call was really dubious. I don't get this call from either his FS or SP.
The 4T was just so lovely. He looked like it was never in doubt.
As to the edge call, well...he's been borderline before. But IA the LP one was a bit harsh. Still, it seems the tech panels have set the standard and they're going to be crazy about everything.
Wow. I am going to start uber-ing this kid even more. I forget he's just 17
Josh's lip is borderline, in the past, he sometimes gets edge calls on it, and sometimes not. Lipping is a pretty common problem with male skaters, and it's not the end of the world, especially because Josh's is not that bad and not always called or even executed. This technical panel was tough, as was the one in Courchevel last week. He's probably working on making sure the edge stays more inside, and this could be why he was saying his lutzes had been giving him a bit of trouble recently, sometimes working on the jump with the opposite edge take off can result in the one you do with the right edge takeoff to suffer a bit.
In any event, I am so happy for this kid and hope he can continue to build this season and keep his confidence levels so high. Winning that silver medal at JW seems to have given him a lot of confidence which is showing through here. In the past, Josh has been a pretty consistent SP skater, but the FS has not always been his friend, not saying he's a headcase prone to bombing or anything like that, but in the past, he'd usually make a couple/few costly mistakes in most of his longs, so the fact that this one was so strong, and that he went all out when he knew he could have played it safe, this early in the season no less, is really promising. I hope he keeps it up because that was just wonderful and there's potential for him to get even better.
Also, misskarne, really, when you look at the protocols, this program can be over 150 points easily. In junior competitions, if clean 155+ and in it's senior version 160+ potentially, especially at Nationals where we see PCS inflation for skaters a lot. If Josh keeps skating well and going for ambitious content, his PCS will only get higher, and he left around 5 points on the table with doubling out on the 2nd axel, then a handful of points btwn the level 3 spin, UR 3lo with -GOE, and the edge call for the borderline flip that to me really is a flip. Further, that 4t was so beautiful too and looked effortless, that I'm sure the possibility of trying it in the SP or possibly 2 in the FS has been discussed. For now, in junior competitions, he certainly doesn't need to do that and probably shouldn't just so he doesn't wear himself out or risk injuries so early on, but looking towards the future when he makes the jump to seniors, and maybe even for Nationals this season or next, who knows.
I personally love his FS costume. The blue sparkles accentuate his eyes and the cut of the top and pants make him look very tall and broad shouldered, which is great, but I know from seeing pictures of him off the ice and considering he's only 5'8" to 5'9" (according to listings), he's actually a pretty small and slender guy. The SP costume I agree made him look older, stronger and sturdier too I would say, but I'm not sure what I think of the amount of sparkles, the orangey color of them, and the neckline of the top. But he's a good looking kid so he can pull it off well and obviously once he starts skating I'm paying attention to that.
Han Yan vs. Farris should be exciting this season now that we've seen Farris go for a land the 4t. I wonder if Yan will try 4s in competition? From practice videos I've seen, he is certainly capable of the jump. All this just makes me wonder about Jason Brown, obviously, his PCS, fabulous spins, and usual jump consistency on the jumps he does do, and back-loaded programs, will help him stay afloat, but with Yan, Farris, and Jin all capable of quads (Yan potentially 2) on top of the 3a, and skaters like Tanaka, Hino, Chen, Kovtun, etc with the 3a in their competitive arsenal, I wonder where Brown will stack up. Hopefully, he tries 3a at his next event, and with some success with that jump, I'm sure he'll be among the top or at least near it, but it sure is interesting.
Also, as for 2nd assignments, I wonder what the USFS will do. Obviously, or it at least appears so at this point, Josh has the best shot of any of the American men to beat Han Yan, or at least give him a run for his money, and after winning his 1st event in such a dominant fashion, to qualify for the JGPF he'd probably only need a 4th place finish at his 2nd event to make it, so in that sense, sending him makes sense. However, I wonder if it would be smarter for USFS to assign 2 men who don't really have chances to make it to the JGPF to that event so that Han Yan can win without it hurting the chances or reputation of any of the US men with good chances to make the JGPF. Brown has a good chance, and we'll see how Chen does next week, so we can assume neither of them will be sent to compete against Yan, but considering the pool of men this season is pretty small, you wonder if they might not send someone like Choate out again, along with maybe Kaugers or someone else that hasn't been assigned yet, potentially 2 men that haven't been assigned yet that aren't favored to make the final, just so none of our top guys have to go head-to-head with Yan before the JGPF. Thoughts? Idk if it's a good idea to send Josh to compete against Han Yan. In some ways, I think it would be very exciting, but in others, why not wait until the final and send Josh to a 2nd event where he might not feel so much pressure to deliver exceptionally again. Hmm
Last edited by pinky166; 09-01-2012 at 07:32 PM.
I thought Jason was just being fanboy when he described Josh as "popping off quad toes all over the place". Now it's obvious that Jason was just describing what he was seeing at the rink. Exciting!
I agree that this could really be a high-scoring program. He could easily put up a 230+ score this year if he keeps skating like this. That's a Senior-winning score.
I have faith in Jason. He'll get there, I'm sure of that!
I'm no longer afraid of Josh vs Han. It was so close between them last year when Josh didn't have the quad. Josh can beat him now. No disrespect to Han who is a very fine skater but Josh has him nailed on PCS.
Yan and Farris had the same PCS in the FS at JW last year though, and Yan had the highest PCS in the SP, so while Josh seems a whole lot more artistic, it isn't reflected in the marks from the judges. At least not at this point. Anyways I was more just wondering if USFS wants to put their strongest guy against Yan at the next JGP Han Yan will be at, or send two newbies who are not expected to place against him instead. I don't think it would be wise to send someone like Brown or probably Chen to compete against Yan but beyond that I don't know which approach is better.
As for Jason, I really hope you are right. I just feel for him, and seeing poor Adam Rippon struggle with the 3a for years and years now makes me apprehensive.
I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Josh has an excellent shot at being Jr. World Champ this season. If he goes into the Sochi season as Jr. World Champ, is that a better position to be in rather than just a top Sr. US guy who may have a couple of GP medals? Just curious as to how TPTB perceive Jr. World Champs heading into the Seniors.
Wikipedia has a list of all the medalists from all 37 Junior World Championships held so far. Of those 37 years of competition, only six JW champs have won senior Worlds: Fadeev, Petrenko, Eldredge, Yagudin, Plushenko, and Takahashi. (Kulik won JW and the Olympics, but never Worlds.) By the way, the only two-time winner of JWC is Adam Rippon, and, well.
The best position for any guy to be in is to be his country's number one and then go out and destroy the rest of the field on the rink.
That's why it was crucial for Josh to get some experience on the Senior GP a year before Sochi. One good thing though is besides Abbott all the other US men are very beatable.
If Josh skates well at Nationals he very well could be sent to senior worlds, and a top 10 finish there wouldn't be out of the question if he keeps skating like this. It would be like Dornbush 2 seasons ago and remember Denis Ten was 7th at Worlds and Josh beat him handily at JW where Denis skated similarly to Worlds. If Josh goes to Worlds and/or 4CC it would set him up well going into Sochi. I assume his goal is more 2018, but making the 2014 team isn't out of the question, nor is making the senior worlds or 4CC team this season. The content and performances Josh displayed in Lake Placid show he really can contend with any of the top US men right now, and considering our current number #2 and #3 (Rippon and Miner) have yet to land a quad in competition and, for Rippon, the 3a still seems to be somewhat of an issue, there's no reason Josh shouldn't aim to make the Worlds team this season. Of course, if it doesn't work out, he can always go back to JW, and a medal or win there would also set him up well going into the next season, but right now we don't have any men who are consistently doing quads in the SP and 2 in the FS with success, so Josh's current layouts with the one 4t and two 3a planned in his FS are certainly competitive, and his international PCS, despite being at junior events, are actually some of the highest American men have been receiving internationally (behind Abbott but similar to Rippon & Miner & higher than pretty much anyone else), and he has some of the best spins in the business. There is the question of Johnny and Evan and their comebacks, and Jeremy we know CAN be great and Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh seem to be on the comeback trail and Max and Brandon have the potential to be technically brilliant, but honestly, Josh's skates at JGP Lake Placid were better than anything Rippon or Miner put out internationally last season IMO, and that's really his main competition, so idk, senior Worlds and/or 4CC and making the Sochi Olympic team are real possibilities for Josh, or at least, they should be.
A couple of GP medals would have been more valuable IMO.
If he can throw the quad toe into the short program as well and skate like he did in Lake Placid Josh can win Nationals. I've never been one for beating about the bush.
The only thing I fear at Nationals is that Lysacek and Weir are going to get held up hugely by the judges. Whereas Josh has never got a favour from the Nationals judges in his life...
Blame the judges if our favourites do not score well against non-favourites.He DID? The judges were obviously a little nuts that day.
The only thing I fear at Nationals is that Lysacek and Weir are going to get held up hugely by the judges. Whereas Josh has never got a favour from the Nationals judges in his life
Josh actually has been very well respected by Nationals judges UP UNTIL the senior level. He did win 3 US titles and missed the junior title by a fraction of a point, after all, with strong PCS marks too I might add. Anyways, I tend to think that if he skates well, he will get the PCS he deserves, maybe not receive a lot of inflation like some of the other skaters do, but at least get fair marks, and judging from his international PCS, as long as its on par with that, he should be in the mix for medals with good skates. Last year, he was obviously off at Nationals, so while I think his scores were a little harsh and he got a bit hosed on PCS compared to everyone else, he didn't skate well, so the scores were justified in that it made sense they were lower than when he skated well internationally. The year before he had a broken bone and allergic reaction, torn muscle, etc so obviously things were REALLY bad so his scores are understandable. I don't think the judges at Nationals will hold Josh up if he doesn't skate well like they will probably do for some of the others, but if he DOES skate well I think he'll get the marks he deserves. Like I said, Ricky Dornbush was in a similar situation 2 seasons ago and got the marks to win silver at Nationals, and that year, the judges didn't even hold up Abbott the favorite. So I'm not too worried for the time being. I just hope he can keep this momentum up!
In the meantime, someone tell Josh and Angela that they are rubbish bloggers. No updates since Thursday? Maybe they're still recovering from the party
Evan is apparently pretty seriously injured currently so who knows if he will even be able to skate at Nationals let alone place top 2. As for Johnny, he's never been a USFS pet, actually, and is one of the skaters that doesn't seem to get Nationals inflation, rather scores similarly to what he does internationally. So I'm not too, too worried. After all, Sasha made a comeback in 2010 and the judges didn't have an issue naming Flatt and Nagasu to the Olympic team instead of her, and Abbott was left off the World team in 2012 in favor of a trio of Bradley, Dornbush, and Miner - none of whom were USFS pets at least at that time and only beat Abbott by a slim margin of points at that particular Nationals. We'll see how the likes of Weir, Rippon, Miner, Dornbush, etc. fair on the GP this season...I tend to think, if they aren't performing/scoring/placing particularly well, then Nationals should be judged pretty fairly. I see blatant favoritism and holding up happening only in the case that one/several of them is scoring well, winning lots of medals, qualifies for the GPF and is standing up on lots of quads (and for Adam, clean 3as as well), and quite frankly, I'm not convinced that will happen, although who knows.