2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[oleada]

I think Angela Wang definitely has the goods to beat Satoko Miyahara in Lake Placid next week. Angela's jumps have improved tenfold since working with Christy Krall, as well as the quality of her skating. Angela also gets great spring on her jumps, whereas most of Satoko's always look borderline underroated.

I think Angela can contend with Satoko, but I'm going off last season's results, where Satoko had a wonderful Junior Worlds. Satoko also has wonderful speed and flow. I'm not sure if this is a valid observation or if I'm making it up, but isn't Angela quite inconsistent?

[smarts1]

^ Satoko is very inconsistent as well. She tends to be either hot or cold in competitions and there is rarely anything in between for her performances.

[misskarne]

Sort of disappointed with Jason Brown's showing. I mean, he won silver and will definitely get another assignment, but he didn't even ATTEMPT a 3a and as a result he got beaten by a Chinese baby. His PCS are good, but aren't going to be enough unless he starts going for the 3a in competition. Jin is a no name youngster and he didn't beat Hino by a large margin here either, and Hino is quite weak in the PCS department so that's really alarming for Jason. To make it on the senior ranks, he realistically probably needs a 3a AND a quad if we are being perfectly honest, and yet he won't even TRY the 3a in competition, even though his PCS allow him the room to make a mistake on it and still wind up with a medal. He's almost 18 now, if he doesn't at least start going for that jump soon, it makes me wonder if he really even has that jump and if he will ever even make it to the GP because without one, he's going to wind up like Cassar. Rippon has big 3a troubles and doesn't have a consistent quad either, but at least he always goes for them in competition, the same of which cannot be said for Brown.

<snip, sorry Choate>

Really worried about Brown though. A coaching change might be needed, this is a big deal...

Disagree.

Where Jason lost this one was the uncharacteristic spin errors in the SP, and his other jumps. Nothing to do with the 3A. He got four underrotations in the LP (3Lo, 3S which I notice was not done out of his usual entry, and the two toes in the three jump combo). He also totalled three edge calls on his Lutz across both programs. That's the sort of thing that whittles you to death no matter how good your PCS.

I fully admit that Jason has issues with his flutzing that have been ongoing for a long while now and I admit to surprise that it's taken this long for someone to stick the dreaded "e" next to it, but it seems the tech panel was really, really harsh in Courchevel. For the 3Lz-2T in the LP, one of the judges gave him -3! I don't even begin to understand how that happened.

While I agree he's gotta try it, and grind my teeth in frustration every time he doesn't, everything was so out of whack at Courchevel that I'm glad he didn't. He never looked settled the whole event. I don't know what went wrong, but you can bet he and his team will be working to fix it.

Jin was quite - ahem - generously marked in PCS here. Jason's seemed quite low compared to his usual standard.

I loathe how people are quick to squeal "coaching change!". Changing coaches is a huge deal. Especially in this case where we're talking about a partnership that's been in existence since Jason was five years old. A complete coaching change is not neccessary IMO, but he might consider working with a jumps specialist at some point. He goes to California in the summer, why not pay a visit to Kulik? He spends a load of time in Colorado Springs - we know there are coaches there whose students reel off 3As like they're breakfast.

At any rate, it's the first international of the season. Not time to panic yet. We know he tried it at his first competition of the year - twice. We know he got < on one which he landed and fell off the one he got full credit for. So he must have it somewhere.

I'm not a fan of what they've done with his Liebestraume program. It looks like they've choreographed it for Senior and then cut it down to Junior. As a result the Junior version looks a bit disconnected and confused in places. It's still beautiful and still , but it is a bit odd.

[jlai]

^ Satoko is very inconsistent as well. She tends to be either hot or cold in competitions and there is rarely anything in between for her performances.

Miyahara lost the short program to Hwi Choi earlier this month in a comp in Taiwan (doubled the flip) but won overall with a 148.21.

ETA: While we're discussing assignments, do you think Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER should get another JGP? Going by 2012 US nationals, looks like they will likely get one (as the ice dancing field isn't deep like ladies, right?). Not that I follow US ice dancing enough to know

[Twizzler]

Miyahara lost the short program to Hwi Choi earlier this month in a comp in Taiwan (doubled the flip) but won overall with a 148.21.

ETA: While we're discussing assignments, do you think Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER should get another JGP? Going by 2012 US nationals, looks like they will likely get one (as the ice dancing field isn't deep like ladies, right?). Not that I follow US ice dancing enough to know

Usually if a dance team places in the top 6, they get a second assignment. I would expect Mc/C to get a second. Moore/Klaber would be questionable- depending how other teams place at future events and the number of teams USFS want to send out.

[aftershocks]

Thanks for your thoughts, misskarne, re Jason's showing in Courchevel. In his IN blog, Jason said he learned a lot, so hopefully he will go home and work on the areas where he needs to improve. I agree that he does not need to change coaches, but that it might be helpful for Jason to seek out additional help training his jumps in order to perfect 3-axel and begin working on quads.

[Tammi]

ETA: While we're discussing assignments, do you think Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER should get another JGP? Going by 2012 US nationals, looks like they will likely get one (as the ice dancing field isn't deep like ladies, right?). Not that I follow US ice dancing enough to know

Although they haven't been confirmed on the USFS int'l assignment page (actually, I think they were added and then removed), they are on the ISU roster for Turkey. Last season USFS did not use all their dance spots on the JGP, it will be interesting to see how they handle it this year. While not as deep, they have some very young teams who could be around juniors internationally for the next few years.

[Sylvia]

These are the provisional, or placeholder, U.S. entries and alternates for the 5th JGP in Bled, Slovenia, that were published on the ISU site yesterday.

As of 8/25/12 (some of these entries may be provisional):

MEN
28 Harrison CHOATE USA 24 [4th in Courchevel last week]
29 Joshua FARRIS USA 24 [competing in Lake Placid this week]
Jason BROWN USA 24 S
Nathan CHEN USA 24 S
Spencer HOWE USA 24 S
Lukas KAUGARS USA 24 S
Shotaro OMORI USA 24 S
James SCHETELICH USA 24 S
Troy TOMASELLO USA 24 S
Jay YOSTANTO USA 24 S

LADIES
32 Vanessa LAM USA 28 [4th in Courchevel last week]
33 Angela WANG USA 28 [competing in Lake Placid this week]
Kiri BAGA USA 28 S
Mariah BELL USA 28 S
Ashley CAIN USA 28 S
Samantha CESARIO USA 28 S
Polina EDMUNDS USA 28 S
Courtney HICKS USA 28 S
Nina JIANG USA 28 S
Leah KEISER USA 28 S
Barbie LONG USA 28 S
Hannah MILLER USA 28 S
Yasmin SIRAJ USA 28 S

DANCE
17 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 14 [competing in Lake Placid this week]
18 Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER USA 14 [8th in Courchevel last week]
Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER USA 14 S
Madeline HERITAGE / Nathaniel FAST USA 14 S
Whitney MILLER / Kyle MACMILLAN USA 14 S
Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS USA 14 S
Elliana POGREBINSKY / Ross GUDIS USA 14 S

They are not considered official until they are published on USFS' International Assignments page.

[Sylvia]

@USFigureSkating just tweeted from Lake Placid:

Spencer Howe has withdrawn so Team USA will have two men. #JGPUSA

I think that U.S. men's spot must be "cursed" since Howe replaced Lukas Kaugars who was originally assigned but WD due to injury. The only listed LP alternate left who does not have an assignment is Troy Tomasello, and I believe he has been recovering from an injury himself.

[jlai]

Given the way the short program turned out in Lake Placid, it's going to be tough for Angela Wang to medal. If Wang doesn't then USFS should just send Long and Bell (or Edmunds) to the 5th JGP.

Somewhat disappointing results for the American ladies today, considering the talent displayed during summer. Hope they skate better tomorrow.

[SamuraiK]

I would wait until after the 3rd JGP to give the final spots. There ares still 6 assigned girls with hopes of a medal and only 6 spots left. However, if Hicks and Baga fail tomorrow to grab a medal then I wouldnt mind Bell and Long getting the 5th JGP event right now.

[pinky166]

I would wait until after the 3rd JGP to give the final spots. There ares still 6 assigned girls with hopes of a medal and only 6 spots left. However, if Hicks and Baga fail tomorrow to grab a medal then I wouldnt mind Bell and Long getting the 5th JGP event right now.

I think Edmunds should be assigned before Bell personally, she's been a lot more impressive this summer. But honestly, I think all 3 of them should be sent. Angela is 10 points back of the leaders and we know she has the potential to score really well, so I think she could still easily medal, especially because Miyahara can sometimes get dinged with URs and Park and Gerasimnova are sort of unknowns at this point. I can see 2 girls medaling here, but also the possibility that none do. I think Angela's odds are better than Kiri's actually, points wise she's just a few points behind and her planned content is probably a lot harder. Hicks will probably medal but she's not in the top 3 currently so who knows what could happen. I think only girls who medal should be given a 2nd event though, like for instance I think Barbie, Polina, and Mariah deserve a first assignment before someone like Vanessa Lam, who was 4th at her 1st event, deserves a 2nd. If an American lady is 4th here, I would also say hold off on reassigning her, although if no American girls end up medaling here I bet we'll probably see 4th place finishers get a 2nd event.

[jlai]

I am not sure there's enough time to wait until the third JGP because of potential paperwork issues. There're people here who are more familiar about this, but I think the one week gap between the second and third JGP is what allows USFS to have time to think about sending other ladies. After the third jgp, I don't think there's such a gap

[skfan]

re pinky166's message #172

if the judges didn't see miyahara's under-rotations today, i'm thinking they won't see them tomorrow either. i love miyahara's skating--she has that suguri-esque flow i adore, but... eh... i think i've seen this movie before


angela... well... she just... she kills me.

still love her skating. i think she continued to present the character of the program despite the errors. it's a more vivid characterization of the movie than her much more TES successful program at 2012 nationals. crossing my fingers that angela will skate a long program she can be happy with tomorrow.


oh, and i don't think the US ladies will be shut out of the medals--hicks is certainly in prime position. i wouldn't take gerasimova lightly, though--the russian federation has no shortage of talented JGP ladies and she got assigned 2 JGP's off the bat--unlike shershak who only got 1

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm


hopefully mariah bell, barbie long and polina edmunds, possibly yasmin siraj as well, will all be assigned to one JGP each before any non-medaling US lady receives two, though the logistics jlai mentioned will likely enter into it.

[feraina]

Based on the results at JGP #2 today, I'm guessing that for JPG #5, USFSA will replace Vanessa Lam with Courtney Hicks, and Angela Wang will be kept on the roster. Or will they keep the JGP #5 assignments, and send Angela Wang to JGP #6? Given a silver, a bronze, a fourth, and two fifths so far, the chances of Mariah Bell, Barbie Long, and Polina Edmunds getting anything are getting dimmer. Not that it's bad that the girls assigned so far are doing well (and all of them acquitted themselves at least passably). I guess it's a matter of having too much depth among the U.S. ladies. Not even Russia and Japan can claim such depth (though the young starlets they do have are astonishingly good).

I would just really have liked to see Mariah Bell and Polina Edmunds being sent to JGP's. They are both precious!

[Stephanie]

I think both Hicks and Wang should go to Slovenia. It's a relatively weak field and will allow room/time for second assignments for all four girls that have yet to compete (Miller, Cesario, Jiang, and Keiser). If Jiang skates like she has so far this summer, there could still be room for at least Long to get one assignment.

[skfan]

i love both mariah and angela. actually, i love baga, keiser, jiang as well. and many others i'm forgetting...

at this moment i am so happy for angela that i can only mourn a bit for mariah. i prefer not to root against anybody, and i'm also a nervous wreck, so instead of watching live i enjoyed a documentary on sushi and just now peeked at the results. i'm over the moon for angela. so beautiful to watch her flow over the ice

[feraina]

I think both Hicks and Wang should go to Slovenia. It's a relatively weak field and will allow room/time for second assignments for all four girls that have yet to compete (Miller, Cesario, Jiang, and Keiser). If Jiang skates like she has so far this summer, there could still be room for at least Long to get one assignment.

I agree with you. But given last year they gave Ashley Cain a second assignment when she came in only 6th at the first JGP, I think they might keep the assignment for Vanessa Lam, and might even re-assign Ashley Cain and Kiri Baga as well.

[skfan]

I agree with you. But given last year they gave Ashley Cain a second assignment when she came in only 6th at the first JGP, I think they might keep the assignment for Vanessa Lam, and might even re-assign Ashley Cain and Kiri Baga as well.

weren't there injuries and declined assignments last year that led to 2nd assignments for skaters who didn't place well? this year we have so many young ladies who would like a JGP--it's very different from last year. aside from deserving a JGP, these young skaters also deserve a chance to earn the ISU required minimums to appear at junior worlds, IMO.

i hope USFS won't re-assign non-medalists this year, but i wouldn't be surprised if feraina's prediction came true.

[pinky166]

I think Courtney and Angela should get 2nd assignments and any further reassignments should be reserved for girls who medal at their first event, if any. Vanessa was 4th in her 1st event, but Kiri who was 5th in hers actually scored higher, and further, the 4th place finisher here, Gerasimova, had a higher score than Lam at the 1st event, so in terms of qualifying for the JGPF, Lam's odds are not great. I would replace Lam with Hicks on the roster then wait to see how the other girls hold up before assigning the last 2 spots. I don't think it's wise to send Lam out again because then there is only 1 spot left, and what if Hannah/Samantha/Leah medals or wins her 1st event? Not all could get a 2nd event and that wouldn't be very wise because USFS should want as many girls as possible to qualify for the final.

Angela was really good in the FS, but in some ways, idk, I think maybe USFS should wait until after the next event before making more assignments, because if say the next 2 girls come home with a gold and a silver, they should get 2nd assignments before Wang with a bronze. Wang would likely still get a 2nd event, but it would be the last event. Idk. It's tricky because the assignments are made before the results come in.