2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[Sylvia]

JGP #3 Linz, Austria entries are up and posted in the JGP entries thread in Kiss and Cry.
Team USA:
Samantha Cesario & Hannah Miller (J3);
Nathan Chen (J1) & Jay Yostanto (J7);
Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer (J2), Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu (J4), Brianna de la Mora/Taylor Wilson (J8);
Rachel & Michael Parsons (J4), Whitney Miller & Kyle MacMillan (N2)

New sub. in dance: Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker; no new alternates listed in men, ladies or pairs.

Listed but not yet assigned:
Men - Troy Tomasello (J8; has not competed this summer yet, AFAIK), Spencer Howe (N3), Shotaro Omori (P-J5; 2 JGPs last fall)
Ladies - Nina Jiang (S11), Leah Keiser (S12), Yasmin Siraj (S15), Barbie Long (J4), Mariah Bell (J5)
Pairs - Goldberg/Dolkiewicz (J10), Zaitsev/Stevens (N4), Belt/Johnson (E-J5/YOG-4)

ETA:

I was close last time, I'm guessing based on these assignments we will see the following in JGP Austria. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu, Brianna De La Mora/Taylor Wilson, Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons, Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker, Nathan Chen, Jay Yostanto.

7 out of 9 guesses correct - impressive!

ETA #2 from the U.S. Ladies [4] thread:

Well I guess you can make an argument against giving Edmunds an assigment because whilst she's had some incredible performances, she's also had bad ones. Her consistency hasn't been great.

But she seems to have loads of potential and her jump arsenal is very impressive.

I wonder if inconsistency in summer competitions actually is a factor as to why Polina Edmunds hasn't been listed as an alternate yet or is it simply because of her placement at Nationals (J6)? There's still time for her, so let's see what happens.

[misskarne]

And here was me thinking not five minutes ago that it must be time for the next round of JGP entries.

[Ziggy]

I wonder if inconsistency in summer competitions actually is a factor as to why Polina Edmunds hasn't been listed as an alternate yet or is it simply because of her placement at Nationals (J6)? There's still time for her, so let's see what happens.

Yet skaters who were 10th up to 15th in Seniors are being considered, including Baga who has a limited jump arsenal and Jiang who's had awful summer outings so far.

It makes absolutely zero sense to me.

[Jenna]

Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.

[skfan]

Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.

edmunds has got a lot of people ahead of her. miller, like gracie last season, has been consistent. edmunds hasn't. yes, they both can score high, but one has consistently done so and one hasn't.

i think the main reason USFS has mostly gone to seniors is because USFS wants to give keiser (US Senior#12) a spot, and skipping over both baga and jiang might be a bit outside USFS' comfort zone. although a devil's advocate might ask why siraj ahead of mckinzie daniels in the international selection pool...

jiang, yes, they have some basis for going to keiser ahead of jiang. full disclosure--i am a jiang fan and prefer her to hicks, cesario, edmunds as a skater, so i'm not bashing jiang, but from the scores compiled it appears jiang has not skated well in a single summer competition thus far. baga, on the other hand, is not only ahead of keiser by 2 spots, she's also had more previous success on the JGP than jiang.

if you want to be cynical/strategic in mindset and don't consider baga a strong skater (now, i like baga's skating a *lot*--i prefer her skating to the skating/style of hicks, cesario and edmunds--but in terms of summer results, edmunds has outpaced baga)... then you can say baga might have been selected for JGP lake placid so that it will be easier for hicks to place #1 or #2, with miyahara being the other top name skater that i'm familiar with. not to say another russian baby won't come out and snag gold, though of course i'm rooting for wang . if you look at how baga has done this summer vs. miller who has been on top of her game in every competition, baga won't pose as huge a challenge to hicks as miller would. i expect miller to make the JGPF, the way she's been skating.



ETA i find it curious that everyone is so keen to make sure edmunds get assigned early--what about barbie long vs. edmunds? no one's irked that baga got assigned ahead of barbie long or hannah miller? neither long nor edmunds has been perfect, but in terms of scoring potential i think barbie long is right up there with edmunds.

i hope the US ladies place well, but odds are not all the initially assigned will place well, and edmunds will get at least 1 and probably 2 JGP spots.

[Ziggy]

skfan - Yeah obviously Barbie Long should have been considered before Baga, Jiang and Siraj as well.

Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.

Yeah and I am still feeling outraged about Gold only getting one JGP last season.

[pinky166]

Gracie Gold was consistently scoring near, at, or above 100 points in her FS last summer and USFS only assigned her to the 7th and final event. Polina has had some astronomical numbers this summer (114+) but also some low ones (74+). I think that could be a factor in why she's not listed as an alternate as well.

This is also important to note as Gracie was NOT listed as an alternate early on, maybe added to the sub list in the 5th or 6th event, but I think she was only added to the ISP in like September or something, and she did end up getting assigned.

At this point, I would say Polina is definitely behind Barbie in terms of being assigned, but after that, it's hard to say. Mariah placed 1 spot ahead of her at Nationals and like Polina has competed a lot this summer with mixed results, however her best results were nowhere close to as good as Polina's while her bad results were just as bad. Leah Keiser skated very well in the 1 or 2 summer events she competed in, but having skated senior in Nationals, it's hard to tell where she fits in, because she placed behind Nina Jiang there, so even though Nina has not been skating very well this summer, they could potentially assign Nina before Leah. And then in terms of Mariah & Polina vs. Leah & Nina it's hard to say who will go first of those 4.

I tend to think the next 2 girls assigned will be Barbie and Leah. Then after that, I don't know what will happen. I think Polina and Mariah both have a good shot to be assigned, and the odds for Nina and Yasmin aren't as good, but whether this actually happens and if they will be assigned before the 6th or 7th event I do not know.

Logical entries for JGP 5 would be Polina and Mariah, but I don't know if they'd already be reassigning other girls at that point should they medal at their first events.

[Sylvia]

Re-posting from the U.S. Team Envelope/ISP thread in GSD...

Jordan Moeller -- 2011 Novice Men's silver medalist who placed 5th in Junior at Midwestern Sectionals last season and placed 3rd in Junior (161.02 total) at the Glacier Falls competition earlier this month -- was added to the ISP as of August 14.

Off to watch his programs at Glacier Falls on IN... will report back later.

ETA: Moeller skated very well in both programs and has a nice flow across the ice - jump notes:
SP ("A Day in the Life" - Jeff Beck): 3Lz+3T, 2A, 3F;
FS ("The Exogenesis Symphonies" by Muse - he skated a version with different cuts last season and changed it to resemble Jeremy Abbott's version which I liked much more): 3Lz+2T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3F fall, 3S, 'tano 2A off-balance.

BTW, Gracie Gold and Leah Keiser were added to the ISP last summer in late July after their stellar performances at 2011 Skate Detroit and Liberty, respectively (also added were Jay Yostanto, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell). However, neither showed up as listed JGP alternates until #6 in Milan.

I think it's likely that USFS will wait for the results of JGP #1 in Courchevel before making skater assignments for JGP #5, and this could make the assignments for #4 all the more intriguing...

[jlai]

I watched Jordan Moeller last weekend thinking he must have liked Jeremy's programs.

[skfan]

Re-posting from the U.S. Team Envelope/ISP thread in GSD...

Jordan Moeller -- 2011 Novice Men's silver medalist who placed 5th in Junior at Midwestern Sectionals last season and placed 3rd in Junior (161.02 total) at the Glacier Falls competition earlier this month -- was added to the ISP as of August 14.

Off to watch his programs at Glacier Falls on IN... will report back later.

ETA: Moeller skated very well in both programs and has a nice flow across the ice - jump notes:
SP ("A Day in the Life" - Jeff Beck): 3Lz+3T, 2A, 3F;
FS ("The Exogenesis Symphonies" by Muse - he skated a version with different cuts last season and changed it to resemble Jeremy Abbott's version which I liked much more): 3Lz+2T, 2A+3T, 3F, 3Lo, 3Lz, 3F fall, 3S, 'tano 2A off-balance.

BTW, Gracie Gold and Leah Keiser were added to the ISP last summer in late July after their stellar performances at 2011 Skate Detroit and Liberty, respectively (also added were Jay Yostanto, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell). However, neither showed up as listed JGP alternates until #6 in Milan.

I think it's likely that USFS will wait for the results of JGP #1 in Courchevel before making skater assignments for JGP #5, and this could make the assignments for #4 all the more intriguing...

thank you for the info.

do you think that similarly, USFS won't pick JGP#6 until after results from #2 come in? there's 2 weeks between #2 and #3, IIRC, so will #7 be selected before the results of #3 come in?

in past years, has assignments to JGP #1 been given to the skaters whom USFS expects the best results from?

re: moeller, i like his skating, i like his music (both programs), and i think it's gutsy to skate to a cut so similar to jeremy's--the very year after jeremy skated his stellar program.

[Jun Y]

Moeller is hardly the first junior skater to copy Abbott's Muse FS last season. I saw another junior skater at Liberty who also used the same music. Moeller is clearly and intentionally imitating Abbott's movements, down to the entry to his 2A jump and a lot of the arms and expression. Although "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery," I personally find such detailed and vivid imitation slightly disturbing and would rather see younger skaters try on their own styles that are appropriate for their age.

[Sylvia]

Spencer Howe (N3) has replaced Lukas Kaugars (J5) at the JGP in Lake Placid (ETA: I've cross-posted this update in the JGP Entries thread in Kiss and Cry). I'm told Kaugars is dealing with an injury (likely the main factor in his subpar performances at Glacier Falls) and I assume he should be able to get a later assignment once he is fully healed.

Howe's highest competition total score this summer was at L.A. Open in July -- 158.42 (109.67 FS) and he finished 4th in Junior Men at Glacier Falls earlier this month.

[oleada]

I don't understand why the USFS isn't investing in younger skaters with good summer seasons such as Long and Edmund; instead sending older skaters like Cesario and skaters with much poorer summer seasons like Baga or Jiang, just because they placed higher at Nationals, which was like 8 months ago. I know this conversation happens every year, but it's still so

IMO, the Senior B circuit would be a good place for skaters like Lam or Cesario, and letting young promising skaters like Long, Miller, Edmunds etccompete in the JGP.

[jlai]

The only way I can see skaters like Edmunds in the early JGPs is 1) if USFS decides at some point to put a cap on how many JGP seasons an age-eligible skater can do or 2) USFS somehow manages to lobby ISU into giving senior Bs more weight (like counting seasons best)

None of that will happen this season of course (but perhaps for the next Olympic cycle?). But if nothing is done, the JGP crowding will get worse and worse each season because the GPs are harder to land and no JGP-eligible skaters want senior Bs .

OF course, USFS can also put all these skaters into one summer comp and let the results determine JGP assignments, but I don't see that happening any time soon either.

On a different topic, Spencer Howe (Bummer for Lucas)

[skfan]

I don't understand why the USFS isn't investing in younger skaters with good summer seasons such as Long and Edmund; instead sending older skaters like Cesario and skaters with much poorer summer seasons like Baga or Jiang, just because they placed higher at Nationals, which was like 8 months ago. I know this conversation happens every year, but it's still so

IMO, the Senior B circuit would be a good place for skaters like Lam or Cesario, and letting young promising skaters like Long, Miller, Edmunds etccompete in the JGP.

they haven't assigned jiang yet. i'm saving my indignation for a fitting occasion

ooh... or maybe... just to forestall anger over a) jiang being skipped over for keiser, or b) jiang being assigned ahead of barbie long, USFS will assign barbie long and mariah bell to the next JGP? bell at least beat edmunds in glacier falls Jr ladies final! this way they can avoid the ire of the people who might be up in arms over jiang vs. keiser. although the edmunds folks will be at their door with the pitchforks

[Ziggy]

I don't understand why the USFS isn't investing in younger skaters with good summer seasons such as Long and Edmund; instead sending older skaters like Cesario and skaters with much poorer summer seasons like Baga or Jiang, just because they placed higher at Nationals, which was like 8 months ago. I know this conversation happens every year, but it's still so

The Canadian system, which is being used this year, makes much more sense.

[mgobluegirl]

The Canadian system, which is being used this year, makes much more sense.

Yes, but Canada also has far fewer skaters to spread the wealth between. I'm ok with how assignments have gone so far. I hope Edmunds gets one eventually because I think her development will really benefit from it, but I'm still of the mindset that she will get one. And so far no one has been assigned who has shown that they are clearly not ready, the way Daniels looked last year going into her JGP (just as an example, not to pick on Daniels specifically. Speaking of which, where has she been this summer? Is she skating?)

[Sylvia]

Last I heard, McKinzie Daniels has left Colorado Springs and returned home to Springfield, IL. I don't know what her plans are. She hasn't competed yet this summer, which is likely why Yasmin Siraj, who placed behind Daniels at Nationals and already has competed this summer, is listed as a JGP alternate ahead of Daniels (in response to skfan's question above).

[skfan]

^ thank you Sylvia. it all makes sense now.

there's a lot i like about mckinzie daniels' skating, so i would be happy if she continued, but whatever path she chooses, best of luck to her.

[sammyf]

Well since the reserve team has been updated, Leah Keiser, Nina Jiang, Shotaro Omori, Kaitlin Hawayek & Jean-Luc Baker have all been added, so that's 99% your team for JGP Turkey since skaters are only added to the reserve team after getting an international.