2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[pinky166]

The USFS might have to be tactical in regards to the men's assignments, Brown, Farris, and Chen all theoretically have good shots at qualifying for the JGPF, whereas I think the stars would need to allign for most of the other men (Yostanto, Choate, Kaugers, Wang, etc.) to qualify, so ideally, USFS probably wants to avoid having those 3 (Brown, Farris, Chen) compete against Han Yan before the JGPF, of course, one of them will have to compete against Yan at least once assuming all 3 are each assigned 2 events, but what would really be undesirable is having any one of those guys compete at the same 2 events as Yan, especially where there are now only 6 spots in the final and 2 silvers could potentially not be enough to qualify.

Of course, there are other strong men, Keiji Tanaka most notably but also his teammates Hino (strong tech) and Uno (does he have 3a now?), as well as the likes of Kovtun, Nyugen, etc. Maybe they aren't thinking about it but I think it would be pretty risky to send any guy to the same 2 events as Yan unless USFS is sure he won't qualify for the JGPF, which would be unlikely, as to get a 2nd assignment, a good placement at his 1st would probably be needed...

[jlai]

why do you think hicks and cesario won't get initial assignments?

Because there're only 8 initial spots (2 assignments per JGP plus host pick at Lake Placid--there're 15 spots, so 8 initial spots). 12 girls deserve a spot on paper, and with a handful of exceptions, most monitored fairly well to very well this summer. Who would you leave out?

ETA: COme to think of it, I don't remember if Baga did a summer event, and if so how she did.
I prefer Cesario and Edmunds having a shot at the earlier JGPs, though the way things go, I can see how some girls who are ready for senior events are doing jgp again.

ETA: WHile I'm at it, I don't remember Troy Tomasello or Kevin Shum having done a summer event either.

[sk8ingcoach]

I know Cain did well at nationals, but i dont believe she has the technical ability to match the other US Junior Ladies. Sure if she manages to skate to clean programs then she is still going to do well, but i dont see her making the final. Whereas most others all have the potential to make the final if they skate clean programs

[Jenna]

If Ashley skates all out with clean programs I not only see her making the final but probably winning her events, too. If she ever landed all of her triples in addition to her spins and artistry she would definitely be tough to beat on the junior level. Her problem is and always has been consistency.

[Impromptu]

ETA: COme to think of it, I don't remember if Baga did a summer event, and if so how she did.

She did do one - Skate Milwaukee (?). I think she finished second to Gracie Gold in the SP (and ahead of both Helegesson sisters), and won the FP (Gold only competed in the SP). Ah, found the posting. Yes second in the SP, 49.75; first in FS 90.07.

[Sylvia]

ETA: COme to think of it, I don't remember if Baga did a summer event, and if so how she did.

Kiri Baga won the Senior Ladies event at Skate Milwaukee in mid-July. Official results have not been published online -- the scores I received were 49.17 (SP), 90.07 (FS) = 139.24 (ETA: this score would be #10 among U.S. Senior ladies, if verified), but I never heard any confirmed jump details for her. Baga, Nina Jiang, and Hannah Miller are scheduled to compete in Senior Ladies at Skate Detroit this week, along with Troy Tomasello (8th in Jr. at Nationals) in Junior Men.

There are several JGP-eligible pairs competing in the Junior Pairs event at Skate Detroit -- results for the SP are posted in the event thread in Kiss and Cry: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...53#post3629453

[skfan]

Because there're only 8 initial spots (2 assignments per JGP plus host pick at Lake Placid--there're 15 spots, so 8 initial spots). 12 girls deserve a spot on paper, and with a handful of exceptions, most monitored fairly well to very well this summer. Who would you leave out?

you make very good points.

i want to say if USFS can pass over mariah bell to annoint edmunds (did you see the vaca valley results Jenna linked to?), then they can skip over jiang to send keiser if they think keiser is all that. but jiang may yet land perfect 3f's with +2 GOE at skate detroit, so my argument might have a few more holes in it by the weekend. i hope jiang does well, in fact...

there may be only 8 initial assignments, but i wouldn't expect all 8 to skate well + score well. i would only expect big scores for cain (kira korpi PCS beauty bonus) and lam (last year's JGP finalist), maybe hicks and cesario.

i wouldn't fret over edmunds just yet. i think edmunds is guaranteed 1 and will very likely get 2. she also only landed 2 triples (very unexpected) at vaca valley, so... our impressions of prospective JGP participants may fluctuate wildly through JGP season. imagine the fun if karen chen were also eligible... ^^

if you want me to pretend i'm USFS (LOL... as if i could come close to understanding their mindset)

cain
lam
hicks
cesario
wang
keiser
2 of these 3: baga, miller, edmunds. probably baga and miller.

probably enough of the initial group will falter that edmunds, long, and miller all stand a good shot at getting 2, even if they weren't among the 'initial 8.' unless USFS already decided certain skaters are guaranteed 2, in which case it hardly matters who's among the 'initial 8'. USFS should just select all the JGP's at once like for senior GP's... and announce it so we can debate the wisdom of their projections even earlier

who are the 12 deserving ladies on your list? ^__^

[pinky166]

Edmunds was fantastic at Broadmoor Open, I tend to think if she skates that well or nearly that well again at Glacier Falls she will certainly be assigned to a JGP, and hopefully an earlier one so that she has time to be assigned a 2nd should she do well. If Glacier Falls doesn't go so well she could still be assigned (I mean her 170+ at BMO alone should be enough to get her assignment as it speaks to her scoring potential), but it would probably be later on and dependent on how others do at their first events and how many of them get a 2nd.

Lam was hot and cold last season, and her PCS aren't super internationally, so I'm not sure she's a shoo-in for the final, likely she will get 2 assignments, but we'll have to see, she was only 13th at JW after all and had that meltdown in the FS at the JGPF, which she was lucky to qualify for anyways as she won her gold by like a tenth of a point.

Cain should do well if she skates well, and same goes for Jiang, and Siraj too, the thing with those three is that their jumps are often hit or miss. PCS internationally in the past have always been strong and good performances rewarded.

Bell skated well in Vail but not very well at Broadmoor Open, so I think if she skates well at her final summer comp (Glacier Falls? Skate Detroit?) that would help her get a JGP earlier, and if she doesn't skate well there, USFS might hold off and wait to see how the other girls do before sending her, and if it works out that a lot of girls aren't getting 2nd events she could still be assigned later.

As long as Keiser does reasonably well at Glacier Falls I think she will be assigned, and early on too.

Anyways the 12 girls that deserve JGPs the poster mentioned are probably:

Ashley Cain
Hannah Miller
Barbie Long
Mariah Bell
Polina Edmunds
Vanessa Lam
Angela Wang
Kiri Baga
Nina Jiang
Leah Keiser
Yasmin Siraj
Samantha Cesario
Courtney Hicks

That's actually 13..

As for who gets assigned when, I think we'll have to wait and see more summer results to get a better idea.

[Rochelle]

* denotes previous JGP experience; placements at JGP Final, 2012 US Nationals (Sr/Jr/Nov) & Junior Worlds included
...
PAIRS (9)
*Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
*Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
*Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
*Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6
Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
*Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4
...
On paper the U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12 for pairs (U.S. has 3 entries in each discipline for the Lake Placid JGP).

Have we heard any more rumblings about the pairs? With Detroit, Liberty, Broadmoor, LA Open, etc. underway... and Indy Challenge next weekend (Aug. 3-5th), I'd imagine we'd start to hear about some plans for the pairs.

Looks like these five teams have all hit past 120, via Sylvia's Score Tracker (http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/s...-pairs-scores/) and the Liberty & Skate Detroit results:
*Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
*Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
*Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
*Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6

Thus I'd imagine those teams are all going to be assigned to Jr. Grand Prix events.

And then all five of these pairs seem to be scoring in about the same range at Liberty and Detroit:
Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
*Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4
(Possible Belt/Johnson addition, if added to ISP)?)

Any news?

[UDelpairs2012]

Have we heard any more rumblings about the pairs? With Detroit, Liberty, Broadmoor, LA Open, etc. underway... and Indy Challenge next weekend (Aug. 3-5th), I'd imagine we'd start to hear about some plans for the pairs.

Looks like these five teams have all hit past 120, via Sylvia's Score Tracker (http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/s...-pairs-scores/) and the Liberty & Skate Detroit results:
*Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
*Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
*Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
*Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6

Thus I'd imagine those teams are all going to be assigned to Jr. Grand Prix events.

And then all five of these pairs seem to be scoring in about the same range at Liberty and Detroit:
Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
*Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4
(Possible Belt/Johnson addition, if added to ISP)?)

Any news?

I would imagine that more news would be available regarding the teams selected to compete on the JGP after Indy challenge this coming up week. However, I imagine that you are correct that the 5 teams who have hit past 120 points would be the 5 to get the initial assignments.

[Sylvia]

(Possible Belt/Johnson addition, if added to ISP)?)

They're not listed on the ISP page (yet), but I believe Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson are in the ISP now.

Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier mention their assignment to the Lake Placid JGP in a Skate Detroit article -- I've cross-posted the link in this post in the U.S. Pairs thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...34#post3635834

[Sylvia]

Posted today in the U.S. Team Envelopes/ISP thread in GSD:

Caitlin Belt & Michael Johnson and Kaitlin Hawayek & Jean-Luc Baker have been added to the ISP

[Sylvia]

Entries for JGP #2 in Lake Placid, NY have been published online (link is posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the 2012-14 Kiss and Cry forum) and the Team USA selections are:

Angela WANG (S8 at 2012 Nationals), Kiri BAGA (S10), Courtney HICKS (gold at 2011 JGP AUS);
Joshua FARRIS (S16/JW2), Lukas KAUGARS (J5), James SCHETELICH (N2);
Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (J1/JW4), Jessica PFUND / AJ REISS (J5), Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE (J6), Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLAN (J9);
Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON (J1/JW3), Madeline HERITAGE / Nathaniel FAST (J5), Elliana POGREBINSKY / Ross GUDIS (J8).

Alternates are (listed alphabetically):
Mariah BELL (J5), Ashley CAIN (J2; JGP FRA), Samantha CESARIO (S-wd/2 JGP bronzes last season), Nina JIANG (S11), Leah KEISER (S12), Vanessa LAM (S9; JGP FRA), Barbie LONG (J4), Hannah MILLER (J3), Yasmin SIRAJ (S15);
Jason BROWN (S9; JGP FRA), Nathan CHEN (J1), Harrison CHOATE (J4; JGP FRA), Spencer HOWE (N3), Shotaro OMORI (P-J5/2 JGPs last season), Troy TOMASELLO (J8), Jay YOSTANTO (J7);
Caitlin BELT / Michael JOHNSON (YOG4), Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU (J4), Brianna DE LA MORA / Taylor WILSON (J8), Audrey GOLDBERG / Joseph DOLKIEWICZ (J10), Britney SIMPSON / Matthew BLACKMER (J2), Christina ZAITSEV / Ernie Utah STEVENS (N4);
Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER (J3; JGP FRA), Whitney MILLER / Kyle MACMILLAN (N2), Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER (N1; JGP FRA), Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS (J4; YOG4), Hannah ROSINSKI / Jacob JAFFE (N3).

[her grace]

I love that USFS used four spots in pairs!

[demetriosj]

Keeping fingers crossed for Hannah Miller and Leah Keiser!!

[sammyf]

I was close last time, I'm guessing based on these assignments we will see the following in JGP Austria. Jessica Calalang/Zack Sidhu, Brianna De La Mora/Taylor Wilson, Britney Simpson/Matthew Blackmer, Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons, Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker, Nathan Chen, Jay Yostanto.

[crankyintheAM]

Entries for JGP #2 in Lake Placid, NY have been published online (link is posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the 2012-14 Kiss and Cry forum) and the Team USA selections are:

Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER (J1/JW4)

Thank you for the info, Sylvia!

I was sure I'd read somewhere that D/F would go Sr this season Now I wonder what pair I'm confusing them with

I hope Simpson/Blackmer get the next event.

[SamuraiK]

Can they really use FOUR spots for Pairs?? Can someone please knowledgeable about the rules confirm this, or I'll cry another "chinese extra spot" scandal in the making

[Sylvia]

I was sure I'd read somewhere that D/F would go Sr this season

Denney/Frazier are planning to compete Senior in the US this season - they just competed Senior at Skate Detroit (3rd in SP, 2nd in FS): http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...34#post3635834

Can they really use FOUR spots for Pairs??

From the 2012-13 JGP General Announcement:
"For the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairs’ event."

[crankyintheAM]

Denney/Frazier are planning to compete Senior in the US this season.

Ah! That's where my confusion came from then. Thank you!