2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[Sylvia]

Of this year's US JGP skaters, who will be competing as a Senior at Nationals?

LADIES: Barbie Long is currently the only one with an assignment who is staying Junior in the US
MEN: Brown, Farris, Choate
PAIRS: Denney/Frazier
DANCE: none -- all are Junior this season

All the JGP singles skaters and teams will have to qualify for Nationals (ETA: Regionals in Oct. for singles skaters, Sectionals in Nov. for singles, pairs, dance) if they don't make the JGP Final.

[smarts1]

She's not listed on the overall ladies page, which was updated more recently then that Germany one. http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

Then why do Ashley Cain and Kiri Baga still have 4"S" entries, even though they did worse than Vanessa (placements wise)?

[Stephanie]

Croatia entries are up: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

Ladies: Miller, Wang
Men: Chen, Choate
Pairs: Aaron/Settlage, Denney/Frazier, Zaitsev/Stevens
Dance: Parsons/Parsons

[kwanatic]

JGP Austria Ladies Review

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/

[Sylvia]

Croatia entries are up: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

Ladies: Miller, Wang
Men: Chen, Choate
Pairs: Aaron/Settlage, Denney/Frazier, Zaitsev/Stevens
Dance: Parsons/Parsons

I'm happy that "Divette" & Utah will make their JGP and international debut in Croatia but wish we were sending a 2nd dance team for extra experience as well (ETA: it looks like 6th place & higher in dance gets a 2nd JGP).

I assume Cesario is slotted into #7 Chemnitz, Germany and that the 3 pairs will be Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, and Pfund/Reiss.

[skfan]

FWIW, Christina Zaitsev/Ernie Utah Stevens have the highest summer competition total score (113 at Indy Challenge) of the age-eligible pairs yet to be assigned to a JGP.

Vanessa Lam is listed as a 'S' in the current ladies' roster for Chemnitz, Germany on the ISU site (but not in the Ladies' points standings table).

Polina Edmunds competed in the invitational U.S. Challenge Skate this past weekend and finished 2nd in Junior Ladies to Selena Zhao. Edmunds scored 47.54 (SP), 80.14 (FS), 127.68 total, and was credited with just 1 clean triple in her FS even though her overall performance came across very well to me on video. Her jumps in the FS detailed protocol were:
3Lz+3T<, 3F<+3T<, 2A, 3Lo<<+2T+2Lo<<, 3F<, 2A, 3S<.

Mariah Bell was scheduled to compete in the Colorado Springs Invitational club comp. this past weekend but the official results haven't been published online yet.

ETA:
Yasmin Siraj won the Senior Ladies event at Middle Atlantics club competition 2 weekends ago with a total score of 146.63. She reportedly skated a clean SP (56.00) with 3T+2T, 3F, 2A, and she rotated both 3Lz in her FS (90.63) - turned out of the 1st and hand down on the 2nd - landing 4 triples and two 2A.


The official results haven't been published online so I don't know whether or not he competed there.

thank you for all the news, especially the news on yasmin and mariah.

[feraina]

Polina Edmunds was referred to in the IN article about the US Challenge Skate as not receiving a JGP assignment this year, but hoping to do well at US Nationals so as to get something next year. Mariah Bell is only in a slightly better boat. If both Leah and Nina bomb (lower than 4th) next weekend, maybe USFSA will send Vanessa and and Mariah to the last JGP. Otherwise, if at least one of them places 4th or higher, I think Mariah will not get an assignment. At this point, I think it unlikely of the USFSA to forego a second chance for a 4th-place finisher to give Mariah one JGP. If she skates well at US Nationals, though, and she really should given how many are moving up to seniors and how solid her jumps have become this season, then I think she should be in a good position to receive assignments next year. It's really too bad though that someone as talented as her has to wait until she turns 17 before getting sent to a JGP...

Next year will be another terribly competitive year for US ladies on the JGP, with no seniors or juniors likely to retire. I have a feeling though that Mariah Bell and Karen Chen will end up replacing Nina Jiang, with her inconsistent jumping, and Barbie Long, with her low PCS. Maybe also Vanessa Lam, her bad jumping/skating technique doesn't look likely to survive any more growth.

At least Russia's super-talented junior lady pool is finally looking to dry up a little bit. Elena is likely to move up go GP's next year (final year for a 14-year-old to skate in GP's, right?), and none of the upcoming Russian juniors look nearly as intimidating as Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, and Radionova, when they were 10, 11, 12. Nobody coming up in Russia is like that now. US junior ladies should be doing better in the next quadrennium.

[toddlj]

Actually, I think Mariah and Polina are out of luck, sorry to say. Cesario will get one of the assignments, and either Keiser (if she's better than 4th) or Vanessa will probably get the other. (Or Jiang, if she does better than expected.)

[Marco]

If one of Keiser, Jiang or Long gets a medal, they will get a second assignment. If two or three of them medal... then bronze medalists may not be good enough...

I can't rest well until Cesario's second assignment is confirmed.

[toddlj]

I can't rest well until Cesario's second assignment is confirmed.

At this point, Cesario I would think is a pretty safe bet. I don't think they can wait to confirm event #7 (Germany) much longer, they probably will have to confirm entries before event #5 (Slovenia) takes place. (This means that Long probably wont get a second event no matter how well she does on her first.) The Germany entries will probably be Cesario, and one of Keiser, Jiang or Lam.

[Sylvia]

Croatia entries are up: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

For some reason all the Croatia entries have disappeared as of the 9/18 update...

[oleada]

At least Russia's super-talented junior lady pool is finally looking to dry up a little bit. Elena is likely to move up go GP's next year (final year for a 14-year-old to skate in GP's, right?), and none of the upcoming Russian juniors look nearly as intimidating as Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, and Radionova, when they were 10, 11, 12. Nobody coming up in Russia is like that now. US junior ladies should be doing better in the next quadrennium.

I they don't have too many girls this year but next year Medveedeva, Sahanovich, Ogoreltseva, Kayoumova are all eligible, and they are quite strong, if not adelina/Julia etc level. All have 3+3 or 2a+3t

[feraina]

Oh, right. I forgot about Cesario. I'm guessing JGP #7 will be Cesario & Keiser, unless Keiser bombs (but she's been skating well in summer comps).

[Marco]

At this point, Cesario I would think is a pretty safe bet. I don't think they can wait to confirm event #7 (Germany) much longer, they probably will have to confirm entries before event #5 (Slovenia) takes place. (This means that Long probably wont get a second event no matter how well she does on her first.) The Germany entries will probably be Cesario, and one of Keiser, Jiang or Lam.

Well yeah. If Wang the bronze medalist gets a second assignment, I guess it's only fair that Cesario, also a bronze medalist, gets a second assignment. UNLESS Keiser and Jiang get gold and silver at JGP #4 in which case they both get to go to the final JGP and Cesario stays home.

[hanca]

At least Russia's super-talented junior lady pool is finally looking to dry up a little bit. Elena is likely to move up go GP's next year (final year for a 14-year-old to skate in GP's, right?), and none of the upcoming Russian juniors look nearly as intimidating as Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, and Radionova, when they were 10, 11, 12. Nobody coming up in Russia is like that now. US junior ladies should be doing better in the next quadrennium.

That's wishful thinking! Sahanovitch....Medvedeva...Ogoreltseva...
Actually I think this year is relatively weaker, having there 'only' Radionova (the rest is a bit weaker). Next year will be much stronger, I think.


ETA: Ups, just noticed Oleada's post. Same names!

[Stephanie]

For some reason all the Croatia entries have disappeared as of the 9/18 update...

The entries on the ISU site were updated today with the roster originally posted on the USFS site (Wang, Miller, Choate, etc.), so I think the deletion must just have been an error.

[Sylvia]

Calalang/Sidhu are going to Croatia now in place of Denney/Frazier who were originally listed with Aaron/Settlage and Zaitsev/Stevens. That's the only change.

[skaters]

So will Denney/Frazier go to Germany with Simpson/Blackmer?

[pinky166]

Well yeah. If Wang the bronze medalist gets a second assignment, I guess it's only fair that Cesario, also a bronze medalist, gets a second assignment. UNLESS Keiser and Jiang get gold and silver at JGP #4 in which case they both get to go to the final JGP and Cesario stays home.

Wang and Cesario have not been confirmed for second assignments yet, but I'm fairly certain they will and USFS is just waiting for the results of JGP #4 to be finalized before confirming them. And Cesario would be ahead of Wang to get confirmed anyways where her total score was around 8 points higher. Nina winning silver would mean making up for like 10 points so I don't see that happening. I wish if Leah doesn't medal though, that they'd just send Mariah and Polina, along with Angela and Samantha, to fill the last 4 spots so they could at least be considered for JW this season. I fear Barbie won't be given a 2nd event regardless of results because I agree they will probably finalize assignments before then. I guess if they aren't going to send Polina and Mariah though, and Leah doesn't medal, the question becomes who would they send to fill the last 2 spots? Lam and Keiser if she's 4th? Wait for the Croatia results to come in and send Long?

[Sylvia]

AFAIK, both Angela Wang and Hannah Miller already are confirmed for Croatia - see this news article on Miller which says that "on Monday evening [9/17], she found out that out she had been invited to another Junior Grand Prix in Zagreb, Croatia October 3-7, 2012": http://www.fox47news.com/news/topstories/170374926.html

Like others have mentioned, I think it's safe to assume that there really is just one U.S. ladies' spot left since Cesario is most likely slotted into Germany already.

ETA:

So will Denney/Frazier go to Germany with Simpson/Blackmer?

It currently looks that way and I think Pfund/Reiss may be the 3rd U.S. pair.