2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[pinky166]

AFAIK, Lam's 2nd assignment is still provisional, not official.

Yes but she likely will be sent or replaced by Hannah and/or Samantha if they finish higher than 4th. If both of them medal, one will likely replace Lam and the other will go to the last JGP along with someone else. If neither medal, Lam will probably just get sent out again. If only one of them medals, they will probably swap Lam with whoever does medal then wait to assign the last 2 girls until the results of JGP 4 are in, and then if one/both of Keiser or Jiang medals, they'd go to JGP 7 and the remaining spot (or 2 if neither medals) would probably come down to Lam, Edmunds, or Bell. So basically, the only hope for Polina and/or Mariah at this point is getting sent to the last JGP, which means they wouldn't have a shot to qualify for the final anyways, but it would allow them to go to JW in the spring.

[jlai]

Yes but she likely will be sent or replaced by Hannah and/or Samantha if they finish higher than 4th. If both of them medal, one will likely replace Lam and the other will go to the last JGP along with someone else. If neither medal, Lam will probably just get sent out again. If only one of them medals, they will probably swap Lam with whoever does medal then wait to assign the last 2 girls until the results of JGP 4 are in, and then if one/both of Keiser or Jiang medals, they'd go to JGP 7 and the remaining spot (or 2 if neither medals) would probably come down to Lam, Edmunds, or Bell. So basically, the only hope for Polina and/or Mariah at this point is getting sent to the last JGP, which means they wouldn't have a shot to qualify for the final anyways, but it would allow them to go to JW in the spring.

I find it unlikely that USFS will wait 2 more weeks to announce ladies for jgp#5. Have they done it that late before?

[leapfrogonice]

Based on the ISU site, USFS has provisionally assigned Simpson/Blackmer and Calalang/Sidhu to a 2nd JGP (#6 in Croatia) before they have competed in their first (#3 Austria), and ditto for Pfund/Reiss (5th in Lake Placid) to Croatia which I think they deserve. Aaron/Settlage (3rd in LP) and Denney/Frazier (4th in LP) are likely going to #7 in Germany with the 3rd pair TBD.


AFAIK the "top 4" JGP singles policy has not been in effect for a while now. I assume that Lam's 2nd assignment is provisional.

The far denser competitive field amongst the ladies/girls would seem to make it so much tougher to justify provisionally assigning a second event, as they are able to in pairs. Obvious statement but not sure how the "top 4" rule would realistically work across the disciplines. 4 seems arbitrary. Pair events wouldn't be able to field 2 warm up groups at any given event otherwise.

[mgobluegirl]

The far denser competitive field amongst the ladies/girls would seem to make it so much tougher to justify provisionally assigning a second event, as they are able to in pairs. Obvious statement but not sure how the "top 4" rule would realistically work across the disciplines. 4 seems arbitrary. Pair events wouldn't be able to field 2 warm up groups at any given event otherwise.

The "top 4" rule used to be in place (although I don't know if it was ever official) when there were 8 spots in the JGP final. A skater had a legitimate shot of qualifying for the final with a 4th place placement in one event. Now that the fields have been cut to 6 skaters in the final, it would be much more difficult to qualify with a 4th place showing. Pairs is different, since there are only 4 events that hold pairs competitions, so fewer placement points to go around. A team could easily qualify having placed 4th or 5th in one event. Additionally, with fewer eligible teams in the US in pairs (and dance), sending a team out a second time just for experience doesn't get in the way of giving someone else experience for the first time as much as it does in singles, especially ladies.

[sammyf]

On the US assignments page, Hicks, Long, Farris, Kaugars, Aldridge/Eaton, Pogrebinsky/Gudis are all confirmed for Slovenia.

[Sylvia]

Thanks, sammyf! I'm pretty sure Jason Brown and McNamara/Carpenter are assigned to Istanbul, Turkey (#4) even though their names have yet to be added on the International Assignments page in today's update (Sept. 7): http://www.usfsa.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

[love_skate2011]

Wang gets 2 assignments, I hope Lam doesn't get another and spread the wealth to Miller or Edmunds

[skfan]

Wang gets 2 assignments, I hope Lam doesn't get another and spread the wealth to Miller or Edmunds

i don't see wang's 2nd assignment anywhere on the official page, so... it seems to me that if the other ladies place well, wang might not get a 2nd JGP.

did someone mention that ashley cain had tweeted that she had to medal to get a 2nd JGP? maybe it's necessary but not sufficient--you have to medal *and* you have to hope that among the US ladies who medaled, you're placed among the top. it's reasonable strategy on the part of USFS, even though it would disappoint me if angela wang doesn't get a 2nd JGP.

if USFS is aiming to spread the wealth then i sure hope that mariah bell is among the recipients of said wealth.

[love_skate2011]

i don't see wang's 2nd assignment anywhere on the official page, so... it seems to me that if the other ladies place well, wang might not get a 2nd JGP.

did someone mention that ashley cain had tweeted that she had to medal to get a 2nd JGP? maybe it's necessary but not sufficient--you have to medal *and* you have to hope that among the US ladies who medaled, you're placed among the top. it's reasonable strategy on the part of USFS, even though it would disappoint me if angela wang doesn't get a 2nd JGP.

if USFS is aiming to spread the wealth then i sure hope that mariah bell is among the recipients of said wealth.

yeah this is good that you take results into consideration into getting another assignment, this is similar to Russian way where they do test skates and get feedbacks from results from their JGP if they get to compete on another or not.

[skfan]

yeah this is good that you take results into consideration into getting another assignment, this is similar to Russian way where they do test skates and get feedbacks from results from their JGP if they get to compete on another or not.

i certainly can't argue with the success of the russian system.

off topic, maybe USFSA should test skate all the way 'til worlds, just so they don't send any other injured ladies to worlds

[Sylvia]

i don't see wang's 2nd assignment anywhere on the official page, so... it seems to me that if the other ladies place well, wang might not get a 2nd JGP.

Or it could mean that the entries for #6 Croatia haven't been made official and/or finalized by USFS yet.

[feraina]

On the US assignments page, Hicks, Long, Farris, Kaugars, Aldridge/Eaton, Pogrebinsky/Gudis are all confirmed for Slovenia.

Oh, this is very good news for Long! And possibly good news for Mariah Bell, too. I'm glad that Lam is not getting a 2nd JGP yet. Her teeny jumps and bad technique put her chronically at the risk of UR's and falls. But she might still get a 2nd assignment in JGP #7, if some of Cesario, Miller, Jiang, Keiser, and Long do worse than 4th (entirely likely).

I'm guessing that Wang will still get a second JGP later in the season; she can definitely still get into the JGPF if she could just skate a clean SP. But it makes sense for USFSA to give out 1st assignments as early as possible, so that the medalists can all get a 2nd assignment (unlike Gold last year).

Given the competition at JGP #3 (Risa Shoji, Elena Radionova, Hae Jin Kim), the chance of Cesario & Miller both medaling is not that high. It's easy to guess that @ JGP #4, between Jiang and Keiser (against Satoko Miyahara, So Youn Park, Anna Shershak, Uliana Titushkina), one will probably medal and one will not (I really love Nina J, but I feel that in this very deep junior ladies' field, she is definitely one who shouldn't have gotten an initial assignment, so early anyway). So really, after #3, they will know their whole hand and can optimize the assignments for the rest of the JGP season.

[jlai]

I saw the assignments for JGP #5 yesterday, and thank you, USFSA, for doing the right thing this time.

[CoralReef]

Thanks, sammyf! I'm pretty sure Jason Brown and McNamara/Carpenter are assigned to Istanbul, Turkey (#4) even though their names have yet to be added on the International Assignments page in today's update (Sept. 7): http://www.usfsa.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

I thought I saw McNamara/Carpenter on the USFS list for Turkey before? Probably not the right spot for this question because I think it's a senior event, but wasn't US sending a dance team to Nebelhorn? Maybe I need to get my eyes checked .

[rhumba]

I thought I saw McNamara/Carpenter on the USFS list for Turkey before? Probably not the right spot for this question because I think it's a senior event, but wasn't US sending a dance team to Nebelhorn? Maybe I need to get my eyes checked .

I thought Chock/Bates were assigned Nebelhorn, not sure why not on the USFS site.

[Lanna]

i certainly can't argue with the success of the russian system.

off topic, maybe USFSA should test skate all the way 'til worlds, just so they don't send any other injured ladies to worlds

Frequent tests are a great way to ensure injuries.

[her grace]

Some quotes from Edmunds' coach after her mostly successful Challenge Skate SP

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

Edmunds, who placed sixth in juniors at the 2012 U.S. Championships, didn't gain a Junior Grand Prix event this season, but [coach] Glynn is hopeful that will change next season.

"The U.S. has a deep, talented ladies field, and it's always a battle, and that's great," he said. "Polina needs to stay consistent at all of these competitions, and she will get her turn.

"Medaling at nationals is something she has yet to do, and she really needs to do if she wants to ensure she has a spot on the Junior Grand Prix. That's something she is very well aware of and that is her goal for this year."

[Jammers]

Exactly how did Vanessa Lam get her GP events? She never came close to medaling as a Junior at Nationals.

[love_skate2011]

^
National results

Given the competition at JGP #3 (Risa Shoji, Elena Radionova, Hae Jin Kim), the chance of Cesario & Miller both medaling is not that high. It's easy to guess that @ JGP #4, between Jiang and Keiser (against Satoko Miyahara, So Youn Park, Anna Shershak, Uliana Titushkina),

I disagree JGP#3 is easier to medal than at JGP #4
look where Shoji has been last season has been struggling and she did do well in Austria, Hae Jin doesn't have that high technical arsenal yet so Miller and even both ( Miller, Cesario) can medal on contrary to JGP # 4, you have Miyahara, Shershak and even Titushkina )

[Jayar]

Exactly how did Vanessa Lam get her GP events? She never came close to medaling as a Junior at Nationals.

Last season, she was selected for the first spot based on her 7th place at Nationals. She medaled, so she got a second. This season, she was senior lady #2 in the JGP pool, so she got an assignment.