2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[toddlj]

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

Looks like Long might get asssigned to Croatia...

[feraina]

toddlj, you beat me to it. So, Vanessa, Angela, and Courtney have been re-assigned, and Barbie Long got an assignment. I don't see these three coming off the roster to be replaced by Mariah Bell or Polina Edmunds. Possibly if three of the next four medal, then two of them will be assigned to JGP #7, and one of them will replace Vanessa. If all four of them get gold/silver (very unlikely), then maybe both Vanessa and Polina will get pulled.

I guess USFSA will wait until after the next JGP to decide JGP #7. It's Samantha Cesario & Hannah Miller up against Elena Radionova, Polina Agafonova, Hae Jin Kim, and Risa Shoji. Elena R will probably win, the other three are somewhat inconsistent. But I think chances are good that at least one, or maybe both, of Samantha and Hannah will place in the top four, and will thus be reassigned...

[Sylvia]

As I posted earlier, the U.S. entries and alternates for the 5th JGP in Bled, Slovenia (and now #6 in Zagreb, Croatia) are not considered official until they are published on USFS' International Assignments page.

The next JGP (#3) in Linz, Austria is September 12-15 so I think official assignments will have to be made for Slovenia (and maybe some for Croatia?) based on the Lake Placid results.

[Jammers]

Just how did Jiang warrant getting an assignment but Polina Edmunds doesn't? Yes Polina struggled in her last competitions but also had some good ones while Jiang hasn't been very good all summer.

[jlai]

I hope US will consider sending Wang with someone else. In my mind Lam got a break already last season
and her last three jr intls did not go as well as expected ( getting jr world ahead of Wang and then placed out of top ten, then fourth at first jgp. ETA: that, and not doing well at jgpf last year).

[skfan]

I hope US will consider sending Wang with someone else. In my mind Lam got a break already last season
and her last three jr intls did not go as well as expected ( getting jr world ahead of Wang and then placed out of top ten, then fourth at first jgp. ETA: that, and not doing well at jgpf last year).

i do not think lam should get a 2nd event ahead of edmunds or mariah bell. i think the evidence points to USFS favoring lam, but just to play devil's advocate, perhaps another factor could come into play. perhaps USFS might not want wang and hicks up against each other again?

i wish angela wang had been given a chance to go to junior worlds ahead of vanessa lam last year.

[feraina]

I love Nina, but she doesn't look ready for JGP at all -- I think she really needs to change coaches if she wants to get to the next level. She was such a precocious little star in the making, but her jumps and now general skating have stagnated for a couple years already, and 13-15 is normally a critical development period for female skaters. I really worry about her...

I think Nina was sent so that USFSA could justify sending Leah Keiser, who came one place lower than NIna at Senior Nationals. Otherwise, USFSA might have assigned the next two junior junior ladies instead: Barbie Long and Mariah Bell.

[pinky166]

toddlj, you beat me to it. So, Vanessa, Angela, and Courtney have been re-assigned, and Barbie Long got an assignment. I don't see these three coming off the roster to be replaced by Mariah Bell or Polina Edmunds. Possibly if three of the next four medal, then two of them will be assigned to JGP #7, and one of them will replace Vanessa. If all four of them get gold/silver (very unlikely), then maybe both Vanessa and Polina will get pulled.

I guess USFSA will wait until after the next JGP to decide JGP #7. It's Samantha Cesario & Hannah Miller up against Elena Radionova, Polina Agafonova, Hae Jin Kim, and Risa Shoji. Elena R will probably win, the other three are somewhat inconsistent. But I think chances are good that at least one, or maybe both, of Samantha and Hannah will place in the top four, and will thus be reassigned...

Are they still doing top 4 gets a 2nd assignment, or is it just Vanessa, and provisionally? If Hannah and Samantha both medal at the upcoming event, they should both be reassigned and one of them should replace Vanessa. No offense to Vanessa, but I don't think she should have a 2nd assignment set in stone when she placed 4th in her 1st event with a mediocre score and so many other girls have yet to compete. Plus she's assigned to JGP 5, not 6 or 7, why is that? Shouldn't they wait until the last couple events to provisionally reassign a girl whose on the bubble to get a 2nd assignment? Also on her twitter Ashley said something about only getting one JGP this season and how she needed to medal at her 1st event to get a 2nd, so assuming this is protocol, Vanessa for Slovenia could end up changing, more likely with Hannah, Samantha, or Leah, but possibly with Polina or Mariah.

One thing I will say, Barbie, Polina, and Mariah are all competing as juniors another season domestically, and without competing on the JGP they can't go to JW, so I'm glad it looks like Long is getting an assignment and I hope at least one of the other two does as well because otherwise USFS will have to pick from the likes of Lam, Cain, Cesario, Siraj, Hicks, Wang, Keiser, etc for the JW team and I'm sure at least some of them are aiming for the 4CC and/or senior world teams instead. Plus I think JW would be a better experience for younger girls who are actually juniors domestically, not the older teens who are really senior level skaters who just stay on the JGP because with the cutting of GP slots and lack of SB scores for senior Bs it's their best option for gaining international ranking points..

[Sylvia]

Based on the ISU site, USFS has provisionally assigned Simpson/Blackmer and Calalang/Sidhu to a 2nd JGP (#6 in Croatia) before they have competed in their first (#3 Austria), and ditto for Pfund/Reiss (5th in Lake Placid) to Croatia which I think they deserve. Aaron/Settlage (3rd in LP) and Denney/Frazier (4th in LP) are likely going to #7 in Germany with the 3rd pair TBD.

Are they still doing top 4 gets a 2nd assignment, or is it just Vanessa, and provisionally?

AFAIK the "top 4" JGP singles policy has not been in effect for a while now. I assume that Lam's 2nd assignment is provisional.

[feraina]

AFAIK the "top 4" JGP singles policy has not been in effect for a while now. I assume that Lam's 2nd assignment is provisional.

Who was the last 4th-place finisher in an early JGP who did NOT get re-assigned later?

[Sylvia]

Who was the last 4th-place finisher in an early JGP who did NOT get re-assigned later?

Samantha Cesario in the fall of 2010 - she competed in JGP #2, placed 4th and was not re-assigned. Angela Wang (JGP #4), Tim Dolensky and Kristiene Gong (both JGP #5) were all 4th place finishers whose 1st and only JGP assignment came later in the series that same fall.

[feraina]

Ashley Cain really lucked out last year...

[johndockley92]

Based on the ISU site, USFS has provisionally assigned Simpson/Blackmer and Calalang/Sidhu to a 2nd JGP (#6 in Croatia) before they have competed in their first (#3 Austria), and ditto for Pfund/Reiss (5th in Lake Placid) to Croatia which I think they deserve. Aaron/Settlage (3rd in LP) and Denney/Frazier (4th in LP) are likely going to #7 in Germany with the 3rd pair TBD.

I wonder who this third pair in Germany will be. I also wonder why they'd plan on sending D/F and A/S to Germany instead of Croatia? Seems like it'd make more sense for them to go to Croatia, and S/B & C/S to go to Germany.

[Stephanie]

The Germany JGP is the same weekend as SWP regionals so I can understand that Calalang/Sidhu's coaches would prefer to be back for that and thus have their team got to Croatia instead. This is purely a guess, though.

I think the third team for Germany will be De La Mora/Wilson if they do well enough in Austria and if not maybe Zaitsev/Stevens?

[Sylvia]

Replying to this question that was posted in the JGP Entries thread in Kiss and Cry:

So McNamara/Carpenter have JGP#4 and Klaber/Moore have JGP #5 in Slovenia? Am I reading that correctly?

Those were the "placeholder" names submitted by USFS by the respective entry deadlines - here are the U.S. dance results for the 1st 2 JGPs (8 dance teams are listed on the ISU site now):
Aldridge/Eaton: Lake Placid 1st (136.80 total score) & SLO [provisional - most likely will keep this assignment]
Pogrebinsky/Gudis: Lake Placid 6th (109.73)
McNamara/Carpenter: FRA 6th (108.33) & TUR [provisional]
Heritage/Fast: Lake Placid 7th (102.81)
Moore/Klaber: FRA 8th (103.04) & SLO [provisional]
Parsons/Parsons: AUT & CRO [provisional]
Miller/MacMillan: AUT & CRO [provisional]
Hawayek/Baker: TUR

Based on results, Pogrebinsky/Gudis are likely to receive a 2nd assignment, but will Moore/Klaber get to keep their provisional 2nd assignment or will it be given to Heritage/Fast who placed 1 spot higher than them in Lake Placid? I assume USFS will reserve one of the 2 TBD dance spots in the final JGP in GER for the new team of Hawayek/Baker in case they have a good debut together at #4 in Turkey.

ETA:

Usually if a dance team places in the top 6, they get a second assignment. I would expect Mc/C to get a second. Moore/Klaber would be questionable- depending how other teams place at future events and the number of teams USFS want to send out.

Although they [McNamara/Carpenter] haven't been confirmed on the USFS int'l assignment page (actually, I think they were added and then removed), they are on the ISU roster for Turkey. Last season USFS did not use all their dance spots on the JGP, it will be interesting to see how they handle it this year. While not as deep, they have some very young teams who could be around juniors internationally for the next few years.

I'm hoping that all 15 of the dance spots will be used this year.

[Twizzler]

I'm hoping that all 15 of the dance spots will be used this year.

AMEN!!! That was a huge mistake on the part of USFS last season IMHO.

[Sylvia]

Summarizing the Team USA provisional entries for Croatia (#6):
Courtney Hicks (silver medal in Lake Placid) - will she stay here or be shifted to another JGP?
Barbie Long - first time she is listed for an assignment! hope she will get her chance
Nathan Chen, Simpson/Blackmer & Calalang/Sidhu in pairs, Parsons/Parsons and Miller/MacMillan in dance - their 1st JGP is Austria next week
Lukas Kaugars - re-assigned here (WD from Lake Placid due to injury) - this would be his JGP debut
Pfund/Reiss (5th in Lake Placid pairs) - should get to keep this assignment, I assume

[jlai]

It looks more and more like Lam is going to jgp #5 as Long is getting jgp #6. I dont think they are saving jgp#5 for Bell or Edmunds. Conisdering the fact that Edmunds did well in the summer but did get defeated by Bell at a summer comp in the final, USFS may decide to send neither; then they don't have to make any painful decisions.

I am still hoping against hope they will move Courtney to #5 and give a spot in jgp #6 to whoever is next in line.

[Jammers]

Why are they wasting another spot for Lam? She hasn't skated well since early last season. Give the youngsters like Edmunds a shot.

[Sylvia]

AFAIK, Lam's 2nd assignment is still provisional, not official.