2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

**Sylvia** · 09-28-2012, 03:37 AM

Originally Posted by 2sk8

ETA: CROATIA :
Ladies - Miller, Wang; Men - Chen, Choate; Pairs - Aaron/Settlage, Calalang/Sidhu, Zaitsev/Stevens; Parson/Parsons

USFS originally posted their JGP Croatia entries (quoted above) on Sept. 18, then removed them and put them back online today: http://usfigureskating.org/Athletes.asp?id=216

**Marco** · 09-28-2012, 06:56 AM

Hurry up and confirm Cesario's second assignment already

**Sylvia** · 09-28-2012, 12:15 PM

If you want to take just my word for it, Marco, Cesario is confirmed for Germany.

**Marco** · 09-28-2012, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by Sylvia

If you want to take just my word for it, Marco, Cesario is confirmed for Germany.

In that case I am happy to cheer for Barbie Long tonight

**jlai** · 09-29-2012, 03:33 AM

I guess they'll give one of the last spots to Omori. Which leaves one left, right? I vote for Jordan Moeller as I'm all for spreading the wealth

**sammyf** · 09-29-2012, 03:44 AM

Originally Posted by jlai

I guess they'll give one of the last spots to Omori. Which leaves one left, right? I vote for Jordan Moeller as I'm all for spreading the wealth

Omori and Jay Yostanto are the two that are on the newest ISU update so that's likely the team.

**Sylvia** · 10-01-2012, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by sammyf

Omori and Jay Yostanto are the two that are on the newest ISU update so that's likely the team.

That's what I've heard unofficially.

Samantha Cesario tweeted yesterday that she is "leaving for Germany one week from tomorrow" so I think that's official confirmation.

**jlai** · 10-01-2012, 06:25 PM

I cannot help but feel that had Cesario chosen senior intl, she would have gotten a gp instead

Same for Lam.

**Jammers** · 10-01-2012, 07:09 PM

Not sure about that. To many girls ahead of her. Mirai only has one which shows how many girls are fighting for slots. She needs to stay healthy for Nationals if she wants a GP event next year. As for Lam i doubt very much she would have got one. She struggled at the end of last season and hasn't looked good this season.

**Sylvia** · 10-01-2012, 07:13 PM

Lam and Cesario were #26 and #28 in last season's ISU Season Best total scores list:
26 156.58 Vanessa LAM USA ISU JGP Austria 2011 30.09.2011
28 153.84 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Baltic Cup 2011 16.09.2011

Lam skated very well and showed many improvements, IMO, at the Hidden Valley Open club competition in July, and had she skated like that at her JGP in Courchevel, I think she could have won a silver or bronze medal.

Cesario has guaranteed herself team envelope funding for next season with her JGP bronze medal in Austria and set a good SB total score in the process, so she already has benefited by staying on the JGP.

**pinky166** · 10-01-2012, 08:32 PM

Originally Posted by jlai

I cannot help but feel that had Cesario chosen senior intl, she would have gotten a gp instead

Same for Lam.

I doubt USFS would have given the SA host spots to one of them over Gao and Flatt, and they didn't have a guarantee otherwise because for both, their SB was just outside the top 25 and their WS was well out of it, so with the reduced slots, it's unlikely either would have ended up with an assignment. Plus maybe USFS didn't want them to move up so as to increase the chances of the other girls (Agnes, Gracie, etc) getting 2 assignments and to keep the possibility of sending them to JW open. It appears that they convinced Farris, and possibly Brown too, to stay on the JGP another season for these reasons, and those two both had a senior GP event guaranteed and maybe could have even gotten 2 if their names had been submitted, so there's no saying USFS didn't play into the decision at some level.

**jlai** · 10-02-2012, 02:05 AM

I just feel bummed for both girls because the trend for the last few seasons is that the top JGP girls have to do technically harder jumps than seniors; also, pcs is lower, and there's one fewer element to garner tes, and so JGP ladies are at a disadvantage when it comes to Seasons' best and stuff, and that in turn makes it harder for these girls to get a gp.

**pinky166** · 10-02-2012, 04:57 AM

Originally Posted by jlai

I just feel bummed for both girls because the trend for the last few seasons is that the top JGP girls have to do technically harder jumps than seniors; also, pcs is lower, and there's one fewer element to garner tes, and so JGP ladies are at a disadvantage when it comes to Seasons' best and stuff, and that in turn makes it harder for these girls to get a gp.

Well based on how Vanessa skated at her JGP this season and JW last season, she likely would have rounded out the bottom of a GP field instead of placing a respectable 4th and 13th, so it may be better for her confidence anyways. Someone scoring 138-140 points in an international competition is not really deserving of a GP anyhow, and that's what Lam scored at her last 2 internationals, in fact she only scored above 150 once all last season. Mirai with a SB of 173 only managed one assignment and the depth in the US ladies is really high right now so really I'm okay with Lam being on the JGP again and getting only one assignment. As for Cesario, I just hope she stays healthy and can compete at Nationals this season, that's really the reason why she's done JGP the past two seasons.

**Sylvia** · 10-03-2012, 07:15 PM

Team USA for the final JGP in Chemnitz, Germany was officially confirmed on the USFS site yesterday: Cesario, Keiser; Omori, Yostanto (all 4 have a bye through their respective Regionals now); Simpson/Blackmer, Pfund/Reiss (2 pairs); Hawayek/Baker (1 dance team).

**johndockley92** · 10-04-2012, 11:41 AM

Interesting that they chose not to use all available slots in pairs and dance - passing over Goldberg/Dolk again and not giving De La Mora/Wilson a shot to redeem themselves after a poor short program at their last outing (Neither team has acquired a minimum TES).

Also would've way rather seen Jordan and Spencer get a shot than sending out Omori/Yostanto - though they both have a shot at a medal, neither skater has a shot at the final so sending them doesn't have much value because they already have a minimum score.

**demetriosj** · 10-04-2012, 10:44 PM

Angela Wang won the short in Croatia!! Hannah Miller in third!! Angela landed triple lutz-triple toe.

**Jammers** · 10-04-2012, 11:19 PM

Angela could surprise at Nationals. She could with a bit of luck finish in the top six which would give her a chance to make it to Sochi if the US gets three spots at Worlds.

**Mrs. P** · 10-06-2012, 07:12 PM

Congrats to Angela Wang and Hannah Miller for their gold and silver at Croatia. This pretty much seals the deal for them as far as JGPF:

Elena Radionova - 30
Angela Wang - 26 (she wins the overall score tie breaker)
Satoko Miyahara - 26 (she beats Hannah with her first place in Lake Placid)
Hannah Miller -26 (two silvers)
Hae Jin Kim - 22 (wins tiebreaker with Courtney with first place in Slovakia)
Courtney Hicks - 22

Leah Keiser is as good as in if she gets a medal. Samantha Cesario will have to finish in the top two to make it to JGPF and if she's second, she's has to hope that Leah will be the one who wins. In that scenario:

Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
Leah Keiser -30 (1st+ 1st)
Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
Samantha Cesario - 24 (2nd + 3rd)
--
Hae Jin Kim - 22 (1st + 5th)
Courtney Hicks - 22 (2nd+4th)

** If Samantha gets another bronze, she would actually be behind Hae Jin and Courtney because of their 1st and 2nd place, respectively.

** Another X factor is Anna Pogorilaya of Russia, who won bronze in Croatia. She will be fighting for a JGPF spot with Samantha and Leah. If Samantha is second, but Anna wins, then Samantha will be out because both Anna and Leah would beat her for the spots with 26 (1st and 3rd).
Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
Anna Pogorilaya -26 (1st+3rd)
Leah Keiser -26 (1st+ 3rd)
----
Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd)

** Miyabi Oba of Japan, who was 4th in Turkey could also be a spoiler if she wins (though that's unlikely, me thinks). With a win she would have 24 points. If Samantha is second, she would again be out because Miyabi would win the tiebreaker (9+ 15 for Miyabi vs 11+13 for Samantha). Leah would likely take the last spot with a medal of any color and even sneak in with a fourth place finish even if Anna Pogorilaya beats her for silver or bronze because she would win a tiebreak with her 1st place win. In that scenario here's the point breakdown

Elena Radionova -30 (1st+1st)
Angela Wang -30 (1st +3rd)
Satoko Miyahara - 26 (1st + 3rd)
Hannah Miller -26 (2nd+2nd)
Leah Keiser -24 (1st+ 4th)
Miyabi Oba -24 (1st + 4th)
---
Samantha Cesario 24 ( 2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 (if she gets bronze)
Anna Pogorilaya -24 (2nd + 3rd loses tiebreaker with silver) or 22 if she gets bronze

It would be awesome if we had 4 U.S. Ladies in the JGPF, especially with the tighter JGPF field.

**Sylvia** · 10-06-2012, 07:19 PM

Thanks for the summary, Mrs. P - for those with Kiss and Cry access, this topic is also being discussed in the JGP Final qualification thread: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=84961

**Ziggy** · 10-09-2012, 03:25 PM

It seems it was obvious to everyone but USFS that Jiang, Baga and Cain didn't really have a chance to medal.

I mean I can somehow understand Cain getting a spot given she was Junior silver medallist but the other two... My imagination could maybe stretch to Baga being deserving enough but given Jiang's summer outings... WTF!

Long could have made the final.

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