2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[chipso1]

I hope Cain & Lam don't receive 2nd assignments. Nothing personal against them, but their chances of qualifying for the JGPF are already pretty slim. It's probably better at this point to give other girls international experience and let Ashley & Vanessa train for Nationals. It seems they both have a lot of work to do.

[Sylvia]

The entry forms for Bled Slovenia were due no later than 8/24/2012 by 2PM EST. So the forms with the participants were already sent which means that the decision must have been made. Those "going" also know. Change is possible, however I am not sure if the USFSA will do that unless there is a documented injury for the originaly signed participant, in which case an alternate will go.

USFS usually tells their JGP skaters to disregard what is published on the ISU site regarding the later JGP assignments (names are submitted as "placeholders") and that they will be officially notified when they receive an assignment to one of the later JGPs -- that's why the listing of JGP alternates is so important (and why I thought it was important for Polina Edmunds to be added, finally, as an alternate starting with JGP #4).

ETA: Jason Brown and McNamara/Carpenter were provisionally assigned to JGP #4 in Turkey on the ISU site but their names are not listed on USFS' International Assignments page now.

[skfan]

Yes, I admire Cesario's tenacity and ability to come back after injury as well. One thing to remember is that winning a JGP medal guarantees Team C envelope funding the following season. This is how Cesario and Courtney Hicks qualified for Team C envelope funding this season despite not competing at 2012 Nationals and every "penny" counts! I assume their JGP success last year also contributed to their receiving initial JGP assignments this season.

ETA: skfan, you're not wishing that Wang, Hicks, Baga, Cesario, Miller, Keiser and Jiang not medal in their respective 1st JGP assignments, right?

Sylvia, i spent the hours the ladies skated very productively, not watching any scoreboard, because i did not want to project any desired outcomes!

the skating gods have forsaken me since 1994; i do not want to get farther on their bad side. i did say i wouldn't root against any U.S. lady no matter how much i favored certain US ladies.

once i saw the results, though, i had an inevitable reaction to them.

if JGP#5 participants have already been chosen, then i think only barbie long still has a shot at a JGP. and that's sad for mariah bell and polina edmunds. maybe if USFS makes it clear that they will send U.S.Nationals SENIORS down to #12 to JGP before any USNat JUNIORs below #3, karen chen and polina and barbie all would register by september 1 to become seniors at next year's nationals. it must be hard for mariah, not only because no one will mistake her jumps for polina edmunds', but because if she were senior she would be competing with her sister for a spot at regionals and sectionals.

whatever. as long as mariah still skates, USFS will still receive my money, however vehemently i disagree with USFS' decisions (unless they try to turn her into a pairs skater... in which case, i'll go back to watching gymnastics)

[chipso1]

As previously mentioned, the JGP #5 assignments are still provisional for U.S. skaters, no matter what the ISU site says.

Also, Karen Chen is not old enough for the JGP this season.

[skfan]

As previously mentioned, the JGP #5 assignments are still provisional for U.S. skaters, no matter what the ISU site says.

Also, Karen Chen is not old enough for the JGP this season.

i'm talking about next season. i'm tired of vanessa lam and ashley cain against radionova. bring on our big gun, however tiny she might be

[pinky166]

As previously mentioned, the JGP #5 assignments are still provisional for U.S. skaters, no matter what the ISU site says.

Also, Karen Chen is not old enough for the JGP this season.

Exactly, and given the girls at JGP #1s placements, there is still a definite possibility for Barbie, Polina, and Mariah to all receive an assignment, potentially. If they do it probably will be late and there might not be time for any of them to get a 2nd event should she medal at her 1st, but it's not out of the question. In the past, 4th place has usually been the cutoff for a 2nd event, and that was when there were 8 spots in the JGPF instead of 6, but last season it was weird and Siraj with a 5th place was given a 2nd event, which she turned down so then Ashley Cain with a 6th place ended up getting a 2nd, and then Lam, Cesario, and Hicks all got 2 events as well (deservedly, all medaled at their 1st events), and even still, Gracie who was late to be added to the ISP and alternates list ended up getting to go to the last event. This season I think it makes sense to make 3rd place the cutoff, one because there are a lot of good girls in contention this season, and secondly because the stars would have to align pretty perfectly for a girl with a 4th place or lower finish in one event to qualify for the JGPF, and the way I see it, if someone is not going to qualify, why send them out again if there are other talented ladies sitting at home?

[her grace]

maybe if USFS makes it clear that they will send U.S.Nationals SENIORS down to #12 to JGP before any USNat JUNIORs below #3, karen chen and polina and barbie all would register by september 1 to become seniors at next year's nationals.

Clarity would be wonderful, wouldn't it? Every year it's different. Some years novices are assigned. Some years juniors down to sixth get to go; other years they stop at J4. I really think the only reason they went down to S12 this year is because they want Keiser on the JGP and they refuse to skip anybody in line.

Even though seniors are being favored this year, there are some advantages to staying junior. For example, one has to finish in the top 7 as a senior to earn envelope money, which is very hard to do. If you finish in the top 5 as a junior, you also earn envelope money and potentially could make the JGP as well.

[Jenna]

Reposting what I said in the US Ladies thread:

Okay, so the US ladies were a bit disappointing in Courchevel. I'm not surprised about Cain's jump struggles at all (but kudos to her for landing two nice triples after a VERY hard fall!) Ashley a very nice skater to watch. She's mature and elegant with great skating skills and beautifully long lines but she has to work on making the jumps more consistent or she'll never find herself on any podium. Verdict: No further JGP assignments this fall.

Vanessa Lam's struggles were a bit more surprising. I'm beginning to wonder if she peaked at the Hidden Valley Open this year. I like her FS a lot, but it was littered with errors this time. I'm kind of shocked because she was doing/scoring so well this summer, but it happens. It's a shame she missed that last 2A because the fall + lack of the second 2A were what cost her the bronze. If she had won the bronze I would say go ahead and reassign her, but she didn't, and so I think she should not be reassigned yet. We have to wait until our medal contenders at the next events (Hicks, Wang, Cesario, Miller, Keiser) skate before we make a decision about Lam. If the majority of them perform poorly, she could find herself with a second assignment, but if the majority of them perform well (i.e. medal) then she's out.

[skfan]

re jenna in #148

i can only accept giving vlam or any of the other already-assigned ladies a 2nd IF barbie, mariah, polina already have been assigned to one JGP each.

IMO if none of the presumed contenders skate and place well, none of them should get a second assignment. odds are some will place well and earn 2nd assignment, but why should USFS assign a 2nd to vanessa just because the other 'contenders' also fail to live up to expectations? have we run out of JGP eligible ladies already?

[jlai]

I thought the more consistent US ladies are competing at the second and third JGP, so given that, 4th and 5th aren't so shabby -- US ladies will have a much better showing next week (and likely the week after).

Lam's score was high in the summer, but the calling at club comps is usually more generous and Lam jumps are small. While I don't necessarily agree with Nina Jiang getting a JGP, I suspect Lam's and Jiang's JGP score will end up a lot closer than what club comps indicate.

[oleada]

IMO, Satoko Miyahara and Elena Radionova are the big favorites for the next two events (barring disaster, I don't see anyone beating Radionova in Austria) but after that it's wide open, so Wang, Cesario, etc are very much in competition for medals.

[modern_muslimah]

i'm talking about next season. i'm tired of vanessa lam and ashley cain against radionova. bring on our big gun, however tiny she might be

I know! I would love to see Radionova and Chen duke it out! However, I don't think our wish will be granted until the 2014-15 season (I'm going to assume that Radionova will want to do the SGP next season if she keeps competing like she did this weekend).

[skfan]

double post.

[skfan]

IMO, Satoko Miyahara and Elena Radionova are the big favorites for the next two events (barring disaster, I don't see anyone beating Radionova in Austria) but after that it's wide open, so Wang, Cesario, etc are very much in competition for medals.

i think that might be a big reason why Sylvia is advocating waiting til after JGP #2 to finalize assignments for JGP#5. i'm thinking the USFS expects a lot from hicks--the article about JGP lake placid barely mentions wang and baga (were they mentioned at all?).


i also don't see radionova finishing behind anyone in juniors this season barring disaster, but i fully expect hannah miller to finish 2nd to radionova and make the JGPF. after miller, though, i have no expectations of any U.S. lady.

[chipso1]

I think Angela Wang definitely has the goods to beat Satoko Miyahara in Lake Placid next week. Angela's jumps have improved tenfold since working with Christy Krall, as well as the quality of her skating. Angela also gets great spring on her jumps, whereas most of Satoko's always look borderline underroated.

[skfan]

I think Angela Wang definitely has the goods to beat Satoko Miyahara in Lake Placid next week. Angela's jumps have improved tenfold since working with Christy Krall, as well as the quality of her skating. Angela also gets great spring on her jumps, whereas most of Satoko's always look borderline underroated.

but the calling of borderline underrotations is... rather unpredictable, let's say.

i love angela's skating. i wish she had been the one to approximate a kwan-style transformation this season, rather than vanessa, but i have learned that the skate gods think differently. i learned that last season too when angela was only the 3rd alternate to junior worlds.

you, on the other hand, have been nothing but a gracious skating fan... so... is the correct expression 'your word to god's ear'?

even though i like miyahara and baga too... and USFS' press favors hicks...

[NMURA]

Miyahara's jumps are small though, except for last year's second JGP, she hasn't received many UR calls. Mostly one par a competition. I suspect THAT caller was specially told to prevent Miyahara from making to JGPF. There were enough reasons for the JSF to do that. They wanted to give Shoji the chance to win a JGPF medal and make a smooth transition to the senior rank. Miyahara's presence would difinitely have threatened Shoji. It is quite apparent that Miyahara is the federation's favorite of his season (and Shoji was dumped into the toughest competition). I think she can expect better treatments in this season.

[skfan]

^
sorry for being off topic, but what happened to haruna suzuki's JGP? i thought she was assigned to one but
http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

shows she's not assigned to any of them. i know haruna skated below expectations recently in a within-japan competition, but did she lose her JGP because of that? is she injured?

anyway, back on the topic of US ladies, this is the vid i've been most enamored with lately.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTzaPSRE31E

and her posture is superlative, and her jumps are nice and high. best of luck to kiri too at lake placid.

[pinky166]

Sort of disappointed with Jason Brown's showing. I mean, he won silver and will definitely get another assignment, but he didn't even ATTEMPT a 3a and as a result he got beaten by a Chinese baby. His PCS are good, but aren't going to be enough unless he starts going for the 3a in competition. Jin is a no name youngster and he didn't beat Hino by a large margin here either, and Hino is quite weak in the PCS department so that's really alarming for Jason. To make it on the senior ranks, he realistically probably needs a 3a AND a quad if we are being perfectly honest, and yet he won't even TRY the 3a in competition, even though his PCS allow him the room to make a mistake on it and still wind up with a medal. He's almost 18 now, if he doesn't at least start going for that jump soon, it makes me wonder if he really even has that jump and if he will ever even make it to the GP because without one, he's going to wind up like Cassar. Rippon has big 3a troubles and doesn't have a consistent quad either, but at least he always goes for them in competition, the same of which cannot be said for Brown.

As for Choate I assume he will get a 2nd event because the pool of men is not that big or that deep this season. Solid score and showing, but what I said for Jason is even more relevant for Harrison, he REALLY needs the 3a and fast, otherwise he might not even make it to Nationals, as the rest of his skating is fine, solid, but he doesn't standout in any areas and is still quite awkward IMO.

Really worried about Brown though. A coaching change might be needed, this is a big deal...

[Jun Y]

As for Choate I assume he will get a 2nd event because the pool of men is not that big or that deep this season. Solid score and showing, but what I said for Jason is even more relevant for Harrison, he REALLY needs the 3a and fast, otherwise he might not even make it to Nationals, as the rest of his skating is fine, solid, but he doesn't standout in any areas and is still quite awkward IMO.

Harrison Choate has long had a jump technique issue. In the air his head is not perfectly aligned to the middle axis. The arms are also a bit loose sometimes. If the technique is not fixed, there is no point going after the triple Axel.