2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[Jenna]

USFS should hold off on assigning any more spots or they could find themselves without a singles ladies JGPF qualifier because they've left themselves no room at all.

Like I said, if USFS played their cards right last year Lam, Cesario, and Gold all could have been there. Instead, they assign Gold to the 7th and final JGP, killing both Samantha and Gracie's chances.

[misskarne]

USFS should hold off on assigning any more spots or they could find themselves without a singles ladies JGPF qualifier because they've left themselves no room at all.

I don't follow the ladies closely, but I was just about to post the same thing. It seems like they're giving assignments higgeldy-piggeldy, and they may end up with no lady qualified for JGPF. That's just silly.

At least the men's assignments seem to be following a logical pattern.

[haribobo]

I don't think Long, Bell, and Edmunds will get any spots at all unless someone gets injured and needs replacing, or there's a rash of ladies performing poorly at their first event. Better luck next year!

[jlai]

I dont forsee all the girls assigned doing well in their 1st jgp so I think Long's chance should still be decent though not great. But she can only get one if more than 3 girls falter (9 girls assigned and six spots left)

[analia]

They are obviously just assigning based on nationals scores. Wang and Lam are definitely getting two. Cesario and Hicks are probably getting two as well. Then probably Edmunds and Long are getting the rest two based on summer competition results. It's quite fair, although the pairing of skaters to send to one jgp is not the smartest. Leah and Nina shouldn't go to the same one since it's very unlikely they are getting another jgp.

I have to say I really start to like Vanessa Lam. If she can get her small jumps rotated cleanly she would go somewhere. She has beautiful extensions and precision in movements. Gracie's skating looks rather raw in comparision.

[jlai]

Wang and Lam are definitely getting two. Cesario and Hicks are probably getting two as well. Then probably Edmunds and Long are getting the rest two based on summer competition results. It's quite fair, although the pairing of skaters to send to one jgp is not the smartest. Leah and Nina shouldn't go to the same one since it's very unlikely they are getting another jgp.

If any of these girls doesn't place top 4 in the first JGP, they will likely not get another one (though there were exceptions in the past). It's highly unlikely Edmunds will get one at this point. Long, maybe. More than 3 girls will have to not receive a second JGP for any more girls to get assigned, since nine girls are already assigned and there're six spots left. Nine minus six is three, so if more than 3 girls do not get a second JGP, then that means another spot is open for Long or Bell (most likely Long)

[jlai]

The short program is over, and neither Cain nor Lam is in the top 3. If neither places top 4, which can happen, then Long's chances improve.

I think it's a shame US girls don't always get to compete when they are skating well; because of the way USFS hands out assignments, really good girls sometimes have a long wait for assignments and by the time the girls get them, they may be past their technical peak, or end up competing seniors with insufficient junior experience (because they didn't get a JGP or only have one), or lose momentum. The Russian girls are much more successsful at the JGPs now, not just because they have talent and momentum (US has talent too), but I think the Russian fed. has been handling the international assignments better. ETA: USFS seems to be more hesitant re: passing less ready skaters over, and as a result, suffers some setbacks in international results.

JMHO

[feraina]

I think the Russian fed. has been handling the international assignments better.

ITA. Juniors and seniors don't develop with the same dynamics. Young skaters can improve dramatically in a few short months, or suddenly lose their jumps because of puberty or injury or whatever. USFSA should not be handing out the junior int'l assignments using the same kinds of criteria as for seniors, in particular relying on National's results 8 months earlier.

The one argument I can think of is that doing well at National's gives stronger evidence of mental fortitude under pressure, but for young prepubescent girls, mental fortitude is something they can pick up (as they are mature) or lose (as hormones kick in, or they get discouraged by some obstacles in training) relatively quickly as well.

Look how Russia so quickly built up their ladies' skating team in just a few years -- I think this is in large part due to an effective/robust JGP assignment process, which at times seemed cruel (if you are not ready just before a comp, then you lose your spot even if you medaled back at national's). The U.S. doesn't have fewer talented girls than Russia, and certainly has a much larger general base of young skaters to nurture, and yet has managed to do a really terrible job in the past few years in effectively developing young skaters. Frustrating!

[Jammers]

I'm sorry but it's time to give the younger girls their shot at the JGP. Cesario for instance is 19 years old and is taking a spot away from someone who's perhaps more promising. What is she going to do next year when she ages out? If your almost 20 and still a Junior that says a lot. While i'm not big on Barbie Long or her skating she derserves a GP event as does Polina Edmunds.

[haribobo]

I'm sorry but it's time to give the younger girls their shot at the JGP. Cesario for instance is 19 years old and is taking a spot away from someone who's perhaps more promising. What is she going to do next year when she ages out? If your almost 20 and still a Junior that says a lot. While i'm not big on Barbie Long or her skating she derserves a GP event as does Polina Edmunds.

You know what else says a lot? The fact that Cesario keeps getting injured before Nationals, which has got to be tremendously discouraging, and keeps getting back into amazing shape by the time the next Liberty Open rolls around- popping out top 5 @ Nationals-level free skates. Personally, I'd have put her in the Skate America TBA spot last season, and again this season, based on how mature her presentation is and the fact that she is old enough to be a senior. But if her team and/or the USFS is intent on her staying junior until her last year of eligibility, that's not so bad either. She clearly has been a good representative for them and has shown tenacity and overcome adversity. There's nobody stopping any of these ladies from pulling a Gracie- winning Nationals on the junior level and being so impressive that she gets to go to the GP the next season. For everyone else- yeah, you're going to be in a long line waiting for a JGP, based on your Nationals results, and maybe a stellar summer comp showing will get you a spot at the last JGP event. Barbie Long and Polina Edmunds are wonderful and I'd like to see them with assignments- but they are very young and they will have years and years to get junior spots. There are enough local comps that they still get to compete against high quality skaters and hone their craft/find out where they stand this year.

[jlai]

I wish USFS would set aside a tba spot at SA and other comps for skaterswho make dramatic improvements over the summer. That would have helped a lot re the waiting thing

Re Gold. I am curious how she will fare, esp with only three intl comps before this season. I wish she could have gotten to compete more, but perhaps she will pull an Emily Hughes and do just fine, though not everyone can be Hughes

[pinky166]

Well, results for the first JGP for ladies are in and I wouldn't assign Lam or Cain to another event considering they finished in 4th and 5th so neither has a good shot at qualifying for the JGPF, especially considering their scores, with Lam barely scraping 140 and Cain in the mid 130s. Maybe Barbie and Polina will get assignments after all, if USFS is smart, that is. Vanessa getting a 2nd event is maybe reasonable, b/c with a win she might qualify for the JGPF, and she has won events in the past, but Cain I definitely wouldn't give a 2nd event to as even with a win at her 2nd event she probably wouldn't make the cut, and I doubt she has the technical goods to win an event anyways. Impressive score for Radinova however...Russia has amazing wealth in ladies skating, incredible to see.

[Sylvia]

I think USFS should wait until after the JGP Lake Placid results are in (Wang, Hicks, Baga) before assigning the ladies for JGP #5.

ETA: I heard that Barbie Long won the Junior Ladies event at DuPage Open 2 weekends ago, scoring 152.07 total (53.67 SP, 98.40 FS) so she seems ready for the JGP if she is the alternate who is next in line to be assigned.

[smarts1]

I wish USFS would set aside a tba spot at SA and other comps for skaterswho make dramatic improvements over the summer. That would have helped a lot re the waiting thing

Re Gold. I am curious how she will fare, esp with only three intl comps before this season. I wish she could have gotten to compete more, but perhaps she will pull an Emily Hughes and do just fine, though not everyone can be Hughes

The difference between Emily and Gracie is that Emily had pretty solid nerves of steel, which can't really be said of the US ladies we have right now. Gold had to work towards controlling her competitive nerves, and she has come a long way since 2 seasons ago when she didn't qualify for Nationals. She went to see a sports psychologist to help her with her nerve issues and it worked well last season. The true test, though, will be this season and how she fares being in the spotlight.

[oleada]

Disappointing results for the US Ladies, particularly Lam. She had a big opening to skate up to silver (gold was out of the question), but failed to deliver. She didn't land a clean 3Lz in the competition; and had a couple of downgrades. I'm not sure if I'd give her another event. I agree with Sylvia, the USFS should wait and see.

Cain, of course, does not deserve a second event.

[skfan]

no 2nd event for vanessa lam. i'd rather see long and mariah bell or long and edmunds at JGP#5. mariah's jumps are no smaller than vanessa's, and vanessa is not exactly consistent. at least mariah has plenty of charisma. and with only 6 JGP finalists and 7 JGP events (all of which will have a first place finisher), i don't think it's reasonable to give a 4th place finisher another assignment. i don't see vanessa winning a JGP with those jumps and her far from stellar consistency.

USFS abided by nationals order and gave jiang a JGP despite jiang's dreadful summer outings (and this coming from a jiang fan)--so by the same token, they ought to give one to mariah ahead of edmunds! mariah had at least a couple of strong outings, unlike jiang. and edmunds hasn't been hannah miller when it comes to summer consistency, either. edmunds *will* still get hers--still 2 JGP left even if USFS assigned long and bell for JGP #5.

[Sylvia]

You know what else says a lot? The fact that Cesario keeps getting injured before Nationals, which has got to be tremendously discouraging, and keeps getting back into amazing shape by the time the next Liberty Open rolls around- popping out top 5 @ Nationals-level free skates. Personally, I'd have put her in the Skate America TBA spot last season, and again this season, based on how mature her presentation is and the fact that she is old enough to be a senior. But if her team and/or the USFS is intent on her staying junior until her last year of eligibility, that's not so bad either. She clearly has been a good representative for them and has shown tenacity and overcome adversity.

Yes, I admire Cesario's tenacity and ability to come back after injury as well. One thing to remember is that winning a JGP medal guarantees Team C envelope funding the following season. This is how Cesario and Courtney Hicks qualified for Team C envelope funding this season despite not competing at 2012 Nationals and every "penny" counts! I assume their JGP success last year also contributed to their receiving initial JGP assignments this season.

ETA: skfan, you're not wishing that Wang, Hicks, Baga, Cesario, Miller, Keiser and Jiang not medal in their respective 1st JGP assignments, right?

[oleada]

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

According to that link, Lam and Wang are provisionally assigned to the 5th event in Slovenia.

[vexlak]

I think USFS should wait until after the JGP Lake Placid results are in (Wang, Hicks, Baga) before assigning the ladies for JGP #5.

ETA: I heard that Barbie Long won the Junior Ladies event at DuPage Open 2 weekends ago, scoring 152.07 total (53.67 SP, 98.40 FS) so she seems ready for the JGP if she is the alternate who is next in line to be assigned.

The entry forms for Bled Slovenia were due no later than 8/24/2012 by 2PM EST. So the forms with the participants were already sent which means that the decision must have been made. Those "going" also know. Change is possible, however I am not sure if the USFSA will do that unless there is a documented injury for the originaly signed participant, in which case an alternate will go.

Here is the announcement:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3562

[vexlak]

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

According to that link, Lam and Wang are provisionally assigned to the 5th event in Slovenia.

Exactly.
USFSA must have sent the forms before today.