2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[skfan]

Well since the reserve team has been updated, Leah Keiser, Nina Jiang, Shotaro Omori, Kaitlin Hawayek & Jean-Luc Baker have all been added, so that's 99% your team for JGP Turkey since skaters are only added to the reserve team after getting an international.

wow. very impressive deductive powers! ^__^ i never would have expected jiang to get a JGP before barbie long.

when it becomes official, it'll prove that jlai is clairvoyant when it comes to USFS! jlai said jiang would likely get one because USFS won't upset the apple cart by giving keiser one without giving jiang one.

now jlai, if i may venture a question, how much will ice network cost us the 2013-14 oly season, and how much coverage can we expect?

[jlai]

when it becomes official, it'll prove that jlai is clairvoyant when it comes to USFS! jlai said jiang would likely get one because USFS won't upset the apple cart by giving keiser one without giving jiang one.

now jlai, if i may venture a question, how much will ice network cost us the 2013-14 oly season, and how much coverage can we expect?

I'm not clairvoyant. I'm a frustrated fan seeing the same thing every year.

Long and Edmunds so deserve an early assignment.

Icenetwork subscription next season is about $40 if you are not a USFS member and $20 if you are. There's a thread about that http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=84517&page=7.Don't know about Oly season

[jlai]

It's USFS tradition to send jr ladies who ranked 4th and 5th at US nationals to something, so USFS may very well send Long and Bell to the 5th JGP, leaving fewer second assignments for the pool. But that will still leave Edmunds without one.

[Sylvia]

It's USFS tradition to send jr ladies who ranked 4th and 5th at US nationals to something

Not sure what you mean about "tradition" since I can think of one 5th place finisher not that long ago who didn't get anything.

At least Barbie Long and Mariah Bell did get to compete at Gardena Spring Trophy in Italy this past April.
ETA: In retrospect, I wish USFS also could have sent Polina Edmunds - I recall they sent 3 Junior men to Gardena several years ago.

[Jenna]

The fact that Jiang has been assigned before Long, Bell, or Edmunds is, IMO, absolute bull****. Nina didn't have ONE good competition this summer, and she also bombed her FS at Nationals. So, we're assigning her to a JGP event based on one good short from January? Absurd. ABSURD.

Long and Edmunds, especially, have had incredible summer competition results, both landing 3-3 on several instances, while Jiang struggles to land 3Lz alone.

Bell has had her rough outings, but she's also had a few good ones. Nina has not.

[pinky166]

Nina at least attempted difficult content at Skate Detroit, but she had lots of falls so it doesn't mean that much. I guess that they are holding off sending Long, Bell, and Edmunds with the theory that they can always be sent next year. Senior ladies (really up to around 15th or 16th at Nationals) have generally been given priority for JGP assignments along with the 1st-3rd place finishers in junior, REGARDLESS of summer competition results. Then after that, summer comps come into consideration. This isn't really a new trend, yes it sucks and you would think after what happened with Lindsay Davis, Lauren Dinh, McKinzie Daniels, etc. and then Vanessa Lam and Gracie Gold winning golds they would reconsider, but they haven't and I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles.

[jlai]

Not sure what you mean about "tradition" since I can think of one 5th place finisher not that long ago who didn't get anything.

I guess I didn't phrase it quite right. In the past, USFS usually went with nationals ranking and in turns of JGP assignments, went down the junior ladies list and stopped usually halfway or more than halfway through the 12-14 junior ladies who competed at nationals (with some exceptions)

But now with fewer JGP and GP assignments available, who knows who will get an assignment?

ETA: Come to think of it, it's just as likely Long gets one in the 5th JGP along with a girl with a second assignment.

[skfan]

Come to think of it, it's just as likely Long gets one in the 5th JGP along with a girl with a second assignment.

by the time USFS selects for JGP#5, will they have results for both JGP1 & JGP2--or only JGP1 results-- in hand?


Sylvia, may i ask who was the recent 5th place finisher who didn't get anything? what were the circumstances that year? and will the later JGP's over lap with the dates for US regionals?

[Ziggy]

Yes, but Canada also has far fewer skaters to spread the wealth between. I'm ok with how assignments have gone so far. I hope Edmunds gets one eventually because I think her development will really benefit from it, but I'm still of the mindset that she will get one. And so far no one has been assigned who has shown that they are clearly not ready, the way Daniels looked last year going into her JGP (just as an example, not to pick on Daniels specifically. Speaking of which, where has she been this summer? Is she skating?)

I don't agree with Baga getting an assigment before Long and Edmunds.

She was 10th at US Nationals, which isn't a fantastic result and she's a skater doing 3toe/2toe in her SP whilst Long and Edmunds are both capable of landing 3lutz/3toe IIRC.

And now it looks like Jiang - whose Summer outings have been very disappointing so far - is getting an assigment as well.

[pinky166]

One thing I am thinking of is that there are now only 6 spots at the JGPF so maybe only skaters who place 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in their first events will be assigned to a 2nd, as the odds aren't great for someone placing 4th in one event to qualify. In the past, 4th place finishers were usually given a 2nd event, and last season even 5th and 6th place finishers, so this season, if they change that up, more girls could get sent meaning there would be space for Long, Edmunds, and Bell to all get assigned.

Also is it possible Nina and/or Leah might be getting assigned to a senior B? They do skate as seniors nationally, after all, and the team for Nebelhorn is usually announced around this time.

[Marco]

I don't agree with Baga getting an assigment before Long and Edmunds.

She was 10th at US Nationals, which isn't a fantastic result and she's a skater doing 3toe/2toe in her SP whilst Long and Edmunds are both capable of landing 3lutz/3toe IIRC.

How did Long and Edmunds place at Nationals last season?

[johndockley92]

I don't agree with Baga getting an assigment before Long and Edmunds.

She was 10th at US Nationals, which isn't a fantastic result and she's a skater doing 3toe/2toe in her SP whilst Long and Edmunds are both capable of landing 3lutz/3toe IIRC.

And now it looks like Jiang - whose Summer outings have been very disappointing so far - is getting an assigment as well.

I also disagree with Baga getting any assignment (she hasn't showed much promise in awhile), but I think Nina has earned her first assignment. She's done well in the past and I think would do easily better than Bell. Whether she'd do better than Long or Edmunds is questionable, but her second mark will hold up better internationally than those two.

[haribobo]

2012 Nationals

SENIOR
8 Angela Wang 158.66 16 6
9 Vanessa Lam 157.62 7 9
10 Kiri Baga 149.38 14 10
11 Nina Jiang 146.42 8 12
12 Leah Keiser 145.55 10 11
13 McKinzie Daniels 140.42 15 14
14 Joelle Forte 139.82 17 13
15 Yasmin Siraj 138.83 11 15

JUNIOR
1 Gracie Gold 178.92 1 1
2 Ashley Cain 155.48 3 2
3 Hannah Miller 149.68 2 4
4 Barbie Long 144.57 5 3
5 Mariah Bell 136.90 6 5
6 Polina Edmunds 134.06 4 6

[her grace]

I don't understand why the USFS isn't investing in younger skaters with good summer seasons such as Long and Edmunds; instead sending older skaters like Cesario and skaters with much poorer summer seasons like Baga or Jiang, just because they placed higher at Nationals, which was like 8 months ago.

The reduction of senior GP spots has contributed to this squeeze of the second tier American seniors staying on the JGP. In the past, Lam and Cesario would probably have been assigned to the GP. Now there's not room for them (or the political will to put them there: Both have higher SB scores than Gao).

Can you blame them for not wanting to do senior Bs? Senior Bs aren't the second-best place to compete. Clearly, JGPs are. Competing in a JGP gets one the all-important season best score and a better shot at world standing points since points are given below 5th place. I can't imagine Lam, Cesario, Baga, et. al., wanting to be sent to the third-best place to compete while being eligible for the second tier.

The federation also wants to reward the skaters who placed the highest at nationals. It's no wonder that the top-tier finishers get the GP, the next-best seniors get JGP and medalists from juniors get JGP. I do think USFS should deviate from strict national results after the top 3 in juniors and top 10 in seniors, but I can agree with them that performing well at the pressure-packed nationals ought to give one priority for the best internationals the next season.

The Canadian system, which is being used this year, makes much more sense.

All the skaters assigned thus far have reached the 130 score that Canada set as their required minimum score.

I also disagree with Baga getting any assignment (she hasn't showed much promise in awhile), but I think Nina has earned her first assignment. She's done well in the past . . .

For not being as "promising," Baga has beaten Jiang at nationals as a novice, junior, and senior, has better international results, and put up a higher summer score this year than Jiang. I agree that Jiang has lovely basics and components. So does Baga, and on every objective standard, Baga is more deserving of an assignment. Of course, this is neither here nor there since both have been assigned.

What I wish USFS would do, would be 1) to use summer monitoring to ensure readiness [everyone assigned thus far seems ready] 2) to use summer monitoring to re-rank athletes after the top 10 seniors and top 3 juniors, including those who were injured e.g., Hicks and Cesario and/or didn't qualify, e.g., Gold last year, and 3) to use senior Bs as a C level competition and assign the girls who get squeezed out of the JGP after re-ranking. If it was up to me, this is where I would put Jiang, Siraj, and possibly Bell. As it is, USFS barely assigns any lady to a Senior B, probably because the only athletes they consider are GP ones or ladies who've aged out.

[jlai]

ITA! A question, however:

Isn't there a new rule about skaters who have competed at seniors not being able to go back to JGPs or junior worlds? (Or did that rule pass?) If so, I can see age-eligible skaters not wanting senior Bs either if that keeps them from having JGPs further down the road.

The big federations need to pressure ISU to give incentives for JGPF and junior world medalists (e.g. Yan Han?) to move up, IMHO

[Sylvia]

At least Polina Edmunds has been added as an official JGP alternate at last! She and Jordan Moeller are the 2 new listed U.S. alternates.

JGP #4 (Istanbul, Turkey) entries were published today (ETA: link & full roster are posted in the "JGP Entries" thread in the Kiss and Cry forum) and Team USA consists of:
Nina Jiang and Leah Keiser; Jason Brown (provisional 2nd assignment) and Shotaro Omori; Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker and Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter (provisional 2nd assignment) in dance.

[Ziggy]

All the skaters assigned thus far have reached the 130 score that Canada set as their required minimum score.

That score is totally irrelevant for US Ladies, though. There is much more depth in the US.

Stealing Sylvia's list, those are the highest Summer scores of JGP eligible skaters (I am combining Senior and Junior and I don't know some of the names, some skaters might be too old):

172.30 Vanessa Lam (Hidden Valley Open) - JGP France
170.06J Polina Edmunds (Broadmoor Open combined final round scores) - JGP alternate
168.48 Hannah Miller (Skate Detroit) - JGP Austria
168.42 Leah Keiser (All Year FSC comp.) - JGP Turkey
167.36 Angela Wang (Colorado Championships, Jr.) - JGP Lake Placid
158.23 Samantha Cesario (Liberty) - JGP Austria
157.93J Barbie Long (Broadmoor Open SP Only & FS qualifying scores added together) - JGP alternate
146.25 Yasmin Siraj (Cranberry Open) - JGP alternate
145.10 Ashley Cain (Cannon Texas Open) - JGP France
144.23 Courtney Hicks (L.A. Open) - JGP Lake Placid
142.56J Maria Yang (Liberty) - not in ISP
141.80J Mariah Bell (Glacier Falls) - JGP alternate
139.24 Kiri Baga (Skate Milwaukee) - JGP Lake Placid
138.87 Haley Dunne (Liberty) - not in ISP
134.05J Selena Zhao (Glacier Falls) - not in ISP
132.83 Nina Jiang (Cannon Texas Open) - JGP Turkey
131.76 Carly Gold (Skate Milwaukee) - not in ISP

As you can see Edmunds is second on that list. She would be first if she'd have had the extra element you perform in the Senior routine.

There's over 38 points between her and Jiang's best scores and 30 between hers and Baga's.

[Lara]

Ouch, I didn't know just how much poorer Jiang had performed this summer.

Surely Edmunds will get a JGP, I just hope they don't leave her to the end as with Gracie last year.

[Ziggy]

Surely Edmunds will get a JGP, I just hope they don't leave her to the end as with Gracie last year.

Looks like it. :/

Given there's only 6 spots in the JGPF now, I really hope that USFS does not assign a lady to a second spot unless she medals in her first one.

[sammyf]

Even if they only assign ladies who medal in the first one, 9 ladies have been assigned and there are only 6 spots left. Long and Bell will probably be assigned first, I think her odds of getting one are pretty small.