2012-13 U.S. JGP Assignment Predictions/Speculation/Discussion

[Sylvia]

Since there is usually lively discussion on this particular topic every year here's our annual thread... It is my hope that people will be civil and constructive in their opinions here.

Here are all the JGP age-eligible skaters/teams currently listed in USFS' International Selection Pool (I've omitted those who previously have competed, or already have been assigned to, the 2012-13 Senior Grand Prix):

* denotes previous JGP experience; placements at JGP Final, 2012 US Nationals (Sr/Jr/Nov) & Junior Worlds included

LADIES (17)
*Angela Wang S8 (4th in her 2010 JGP debut in Japan)
*Vanessa Lam JGPF5/S9/JW13 (gold & bronze in 2011 JGP)
*Kiri Baga S10 (did not compete on JGP last season)
*Nina Jiang S11 (5th in her 2010 JGP debut in France)
Leah Keiser S12
*McKinzie Daniels S13 (10th in her 2011 JGP debut in Romania)
*Yasmin Siraj S15 (5th in 2011 JGP in Latvia)
*Samantha Cesario S-WD (2 bronzes in 2011 JGP)
*Courtney Hicks S-WD (gold in her 2011 JGP debut in Australia)
*Ashley Cain J2 (6th & 5th in 2011 JGP)
*Hannah Miller J3 (bronze in her 2011 JGP debut in Italy)
Barbie Long J4
Mariah Bell J5
Polina Edmunds J6
Gwendolyn Prescott J7
Jenelle Herman J8
*Katarina Kulgeyko J9 (5th in her 2011 JGP debut in Austria)

MEN (12)
*Joshua Farris JGPF3/S16/JW2
*Jason Brown JGPF1/S9/JW3
Nathan Chen J1
*Harrison Choate J4 (6th in his 2011 JGP debut in Romania)
Lukas Kaugars J5
*Jay Yostanto J7 (5th in his 2011 JGP debut in Italy)
Troy Tomasello J8
*David Wang J11 (5th in his 2011 JGP debut in Poland)
James Schetelich N2
Spencer Howe N3
Kevin Shum N4
*Shotaro Omori Pacific Sectional J5 (4th & 5th in his 2011 JGP debut season)

PAIRS (9)
*Haven Denney & Brandon Frazier J1/JW4
*Britney Simpson & Matthew Blackmer JGPF3/J2/JW10
*Jessica Noelle Calalang & Zack Sidhu JGPF-wd/J4
Jessica Pfund & AJ Reiss J5
*Madeline Aaron & Max Settlage J6
Brianna de la Mora & Taylor Wilson J8
*Olivia Oltmanns & Joshua Santillan J9
Audrey Goldberg & Joseph Dolkiewicz J10
Christina Zaitsev & Ernie Stevens N4

ICE DANCING (8)
*Alexandra Aldridge & Daniel Eaton JGPF4/J1/JW3
Lorraine McNamara & Quinn Carpenter J3
*Rachel Parsons & Michael Parsons YOG4/J4
*Madeline Heritage & Nathaniel Fast J5
Elliana Pogrebinsky & Ross Gudis J8
Holly Moore & Daniel Klaber N1
Whitney Miller & Kyle MacMillan N2
Hannah Rosinski & Jacob Jaffe N3

On paper the U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12 for pairs (U.S. has 3 entries in each discipline for the Lake Placid JGP).

[sammyf]

On paper the U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12 for pairs (U.S. has 3 entries in each discipline for the Lake Placid JGP).

They have an unlimited number of slots for pairs for JGP Lake Placid. Hopefully they send a few extra since it shouldn't cost as much as sending them abroad.

[Sylvia]

I just knew you were going to bring that detail up! The U.S. assigned 4 pairs to the 2007 JGP in Lake Placid but one team ended up withdrawing 2 weeks before the comp. and was not replaced. 3 U.S. pairs competed at the JGP in Lake Placid in 2009.

Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (4th in their international debut at the 2012 Winter Youth Olympic Games) are ISU Junior age-eligible in 2012-13 and could be added to the ISP if they monitor well this summer, along with any other new age-eligible pair or dance teams.

[vexlak]

I think the US is getting 3 ladies spots for the Lake Placid JGP. Any predictions who may be there to defend home territory?

[Jammers]

I hope youngsters like Keiser. Jiang or Wang get at least one assignment this season. Time to invest in the future.

[pinky166]

I hope youngsters like Keiser. Jiang or Wang get at least one assignment this season. Time to invest in the future.

I think it's likely all 3 get assignments. Wang will likely regardless of summer competition results, and as long and Leah and Nina skate reasonably well and attempt triple flips, I think they will likely be assigned as well. I'm really hoping Polina Edmunds finally gets assigned after being a substitute last season, she is really exciting with her 3-3s and fast, really flexible spins! Plus she has a very developed personality on the ice for being just barely 14.

Also excited for Nathan Chen! Wonder if he will be winning medals right away?

[misskarne]

I'll be interested to see what they do with the men at Lake Placid.

I mean, in this situation, you would want to show off your strongest skaters on home soil, which would mean giving both Farris and Brown Lake Placid. But in reality, the USFSA probably doesn't want these two to come up against each other prior to JGPF. I suppose theoretically it also means that one has to take GP points from the other and put the other at risk of not qualifying, although I can't imagine that neither would qualify.

If they just give it to one of them, whoever gets LP would be at a political advantage.

Or maybe they could give them both Lake Placid as a third, non point-scoring JGP? Is that allowed on JGP?

[jlai]

Good to see that every girl that should be in the ISP is already in it, even before summer comps start. (But then this year no surprises at sectionals that caused some "favorites" to miss nationals, which made the initial ISP list a little easier to compile.) I remember last year, skaters like Keiser were added during summer (going by memory here). That can still happen, but I think this list is already a good one.

With GPs harder to get, more girls are going to stay junior, and I really hate for JGP to be, for lack of better words, an alternate to Senior Bs.

With JGPs being now more saturated than ever, I hope USFSA will spread out the assignments as much as possible.

I also think some girls in the list are ready for senior assignments. Hopefully there're some senior Bs for them.

If all those girls are competing for a jgp, I really don't know how USFS should decide. I mean how do you choose between Long (4th at jr ladies) and say, Keiser or Daniels?

RE: jr men. I would love for Howe and Shum to end up with a JGP. They still have a chance though not as good a chance as I thought (I thought Farris would go senior)

[pinky166]

I'll be interested to see what they do with the men at Lake Placid.

I mean, in this situation, you would want to show off your strongest skaters on home soil, which would mean giving both Farris and Brown Lake Placid. But in reality, the USFSA probably doesn't want these two to come up against each other prior to JGPF. I suppose theoretically it also means that one has to take GP points from the other and put the other at risk of not qualifying, although I can't imagine that neither would qualify.

If they just give it to one of them, whoever gets LP would be at a political advantage.

Or maybe they could give them both Lake Placid as a third, non point-scoring JGP? Is that allowed on JGP?

My guess is Farris and Chen will go to Lake Placid. Farris because he is the reigning JW silver medalist and has the big tricks, Chen because he is the US junior champ and the one to watch for the future and I don't expect he will be in the mix for JGP golds just yet, unless he is trying the 3a by then. More likely I think he will fair like Shoma Uno and Nam Nyugen last season, in the mix for medals, but making JGPF may be a stretch, so sending to him the same event as Farris would likely not be a huge liability. But then again, USFS seems to prefer Brown to Farris so maybe Brown and Chen would go instead...

They won't want to send Farris and Brown to the same event, and likely they may even flip flop assignments around a bit to avoid having those two compete against Han Yan twice, or even once, before the JGPF, as it could hurt their chances to qualify. I guess if Chen were to win his first event though, they might not want he and Farris/Brown at the same event either, and someone like Choate could be given the spot, as unless he has a 3a in his programs by then, I don't think he has great odds on qualifying for the JGPF.

Competition for the JGPF for the men will be stiff with Yan, Farris, Brown, Tanaka, Hino, Uno, Kihara, Zhang, Kovtun, and Nyugen all staying on the JGP again, and that's before you throw in new faces like Chen!

[winterone]

What is the average spectator attendence at a JGP event anywhere? The few I attended have very few people watching the event.

[UDelpairs2012]

I love Nina Jiang she is so much potential

[AnnMJensen]

[QUOTE=jlai;3583443]...

With GPs harder to get, more girls are going to stay junior, and I really hate for JGP to be, for lack of better words, an alternate to Senior Bs.

If all those girls are competing for a jgp, I really don't know how USFS should decide. I mean how do you choose between Long (4th at jr ladies) and say, Keiser or Daniels?


Staying JR in US does not guarantee them a JGP - if they place well in Sr at Nationals and are age eligible it is more likely (traditionally) they get a JGP or Sr B A 5th in Sr. Nationals is "worth more" that a 5th in Jr. at Nationals....

[jlai]

[QUOTE=AnnMJensen;3589304]

...

With GPs harder to get, more girls are going to stay junior, and I really hate for JGP to be, for lack of better words, an alternate to Senior Bs.

If all those girls are competing for a jgp, I really don't know how USFS should decide. I mean how do you choose between Long (4th at jr ladies) and say, Keiser or Daniels?


Staying JR in US does not guarantee them a JGP - if they place well in Sr at Nationals and are age eligible it is more likely (traditionally) they get a JGP or Sr B A 5th in Sr. Nationals is "worth more" that a 5th in Jr. at Nationals....

I meant staying jr internationally

[kwanatic]

When will they post the JGP assignments? I find it strange that the senior events were posted so early even though the series doesn't start until October...doesn't the JGP start in August?

[Sylvia]

When will they post the JGP assignments? I find it strange that the senior events were posted so early even though the series doesn't start until October...doesn't the JGP start in August?

How the JGP assignments are made and announced are up to each federation (unlike GP assignment selection). In recent years, USFS hasn't been posting their entries on their International Assignments page until after the JGP rosters are published by the ISU.

From the 2012-13 JGP Announcement:

b) Entries by Names (Competitors and Judges)
Entries by names of Competitors and Judges must be made through the Members simultaneously to the Organizing Committees concerned, the ISU Secretariat, the Chair of the Sports Directorate and the ISU Event Coordinator not less than 31 days before the first draw of the respective individual event.

The seven events of the 2012-13 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating are:
1st event Courchevel, FRA 22.08.2012 – 26.08.2012 (Aug. 22-26, 2012)
2nd event (incl. Pairs) Lake Placid, USA 29.08.2012 – 02.09.2012 (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)
[one week off]
3rd event (incl. Pairs) Linz, AUT 12.09.2012 – 16.09.2012 (Sept. 12-16)
4th event Istanbul, TUR 19.09.2012 – 23.09.2012 (Sept. 19-23)
5th event Bled, SLO 26.09.2012 – 30.09.2012 (Sept. 26-30)
6th event (incl. Pairs) Zagreb, CRO 03.10.2012 – 07.10.2012 (Oct. 3-7)
7th event (incl. Pairs) Dresden, GER 10.10.2012 – 14.10.2012 (Oct. 10-14)

ETA link to the general JGP thread in GSD where skaters/teams from all countries are being discussed: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=83541

[kwanatic]

^^ Thanks for that. I've been following the JGP for the only the past two years so I'm still learning how everything works. Year before last, I only had protocols and whatever videos I could find. I'm happy that the ISU made that JGP YouTube channel; I was able to watch every competition and performance. I really hope they continue with that again this year and in the future. It makes for a much richer experience in terms of watching skaters grow and mature as the years go by.

[misskarne]

So we'll know by midway through July, pretty much.

I'm bugging at how short the off-season is as a Junior. They start nearly three months ahead of the Seniors!

[dancergrl]

how many entries does US get for each discipline for JGP's?

[Sylvia]

So we'll know by midway through July, pretty much.

The ISU should publish the entries for Courchevel (JGP #1) by late July, followed by Lake Placid 1 week later, Linz 2 weeks after that (no JGP the first week of Sept.), and so forth.

how many entries does US get for each discipline for JGP's?

The U.S. has 15 JGP slots for men, ladies, and dance teams and 12+ for pairs (U.S. can send 3 men/ladies/dance teams to Lake Placid and more than 3 pairs if they want).

[sk8ingcoach]

I hope Angela Wang gets 2... She deserves it after not being given a spot at Junior Worlds. I hope USFA doesnt favour Cain again