2012-13 Grand Prix Pre-announcement Thread

[HisWeirness]

By popular request

Feel free to discuss potential 2012-13 Grand Prix assignments, etc. here while we wait for the all powerful 2012-13 GP announcement that will hopefully

1. Be released BEFORE the assignments come out in June
2. Be an easy to understand and interpret document

In the meantime, I've collected some helpful links and some posts made around FSU on this topic.

If you'd like to specifically discuss US skaters' assignments to the GP & JGP, USFSA strategy, and/or Skate America TBA picks, there is already a thread up and going on that topic here: 2012-13 US assignments speculation

Please keep in mind the following:
The ISU has already updated the World Rankings and Season bests (Men, Ladies, Pairs, Dance) through 2012 Worlds, but they have yet to remove the 2009-10 season points from the ISU World Standings. This will likely happen in the next month (last year it was May 11). Therefore, the ISU World Standings you see today are not the World Standings that will probably be used to determine 2012-13 GP Assignments.

GP assignments were announced last year on June 27. Here is the 2011-12 GP Thread. The ISU Congress and ISU Council are meeting in Kuala Lumpur in June (June 10-17). So, it'll probably be June when the assignments will be announced.

The 2012-13 GP announcement and assignments will probably be posted on this website: ISU Grand Prix webpage
2011-12 Grand Prix Announcement (contains all of the Grand Prix assignment rules)

Current 2012-13 GP dates/locations

19 - 21 Oct Skate America TBA, USA
26 - 28 Oct Skate Canada Windsor, Ontario, Canada
2 - 4 Nov Cup of China Shanghai, China
9 - 11 Nov Rostelecom Cup 2012 Moscow, Russia
16 - 18 Nov Trophee (insert sponsor here), Paris, France
23 - 25 Nov NHK Trophy Sendai, Japan
6 - 9 Dec Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final (Combined Juniors and Seniors) Sochi, Russia

Relevant posts from previous threads:

Did this right after Worlds over 3 different threads now on page 4 of The Trash Can...just need to update ladies/pairs/dance with skaters in 24 after WR purging...

MEN

Seeded, guar. 2, poss. 3: Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu, Joubert, Amodio, Brezina

Places 7-12 at Worlds, guaranteed 2: Ten, Abbott, Fernandez, Contesti, Kozuka, Reynolds

Top 24 SB (currently), guar. 1: Plushenko, Gachinski, Oda, Song, Verner, Contesti, Miner, Han Yan*, Farris*, Rippon, Mura, Brown*

Top 24 World Rankings who aren't listed above (currently, may change), guar. 1: Machida, Majorov, Dornbush. (ETA: removed Schultheiss who is falling out of top 24)

*= junior, would need to move up to seniors internationally


LADIES

Seeded, guar. 2, poss. 3: Kostner, Leonova, Suzuki, Wagner, Murakami, Asada

Places 7-12 at Worlds, guaranteed 2: Kexin Zhang, Valentina Marchei, Ksenia Makarova, Elene Gedevanishvili, Viktoria Helgesson, Yretha Silete

Top 24 SB (currently), guar. 1: Lipnitskaia*, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, Gold*, Korpi, Biryukova, Korobeynikova, Shelepen*, Miyahara*, Shoji*, Zijun Li*

*= junior, would need to move up to seniors internationally

Top 24 World Rankings who aren't listed above (currently, may change), guar. 1: Miki Ando?, Yuna Kim?, Haruka Imai, Cynthia Phaneuf, Mae Berenice Meite (probably Joshi Helgesson, Sarah Hecken, Flatt falling out of top 24)

PAIRS

Seeded (guar. 2)- Savchenko/Szolkowy, Volosozhar/Trankov, Takahashi/Tran, Pang/Tong, Duhamel/Radford, Bazarova/Larionov

7-12 (guar. 2) - Kavaguti/Smirnov, Denney/Coughlin, Sui/Han, Marley/Brubaker, Berton/Hotarek, DubeWolfe

Top 24 SB (guar. 1) - Zhangs, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Stolbova/Klimov, Yu/Jin, Lawrence/Swiegers, Vise/Baldwin, Vartmann/Van Cleave, Davankova/Deputat, Bobak/Beharry, James/Cipres

Top 24 WR (guar. 1)- Hausch/Wende, Gerboldt/Enbert, Kemp/King, Dong/Wu


DANCE

Seeded top 6 (guar. 2)- Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat, Weaver/Poje, Ilynikh/Katsalapov, Cappellini/LaNotte

7-12 (guar 2) - Bobrova/Soloviev, Shibutani/Shibutani, Riazanova/Tkachenko, Hubbell/Donohue, Zhiganshina/Gazsi, Huang/Zheng

Top 24 SB (guar 1) - Sinitsina/Zhiganshin, Stepanova/Bukin, Yanovskaya/Mozgov, Coomes/Buckland, Carron/Jones, Aldridge/Eaton, Tobias/Stagniunas, Papadakis/Cizeron, Chock/Bates, Orford/Williams, Allesandrini/Vaturi, Zlobina/Sitnikov, Nazarova/Nikitin

Top 24 WR (guar 1)- Pushkash/Guerreiro, Monko/Khaliavin, Ralph/Hill, Gorshkova/Butikov, Reed/Reed, Paul/Islam, Hurtado/Diaz

JW & JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed of a GP spot. According to "GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(c):

"Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfill the requirements of the minimum score."

In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples (that placed) 1 - 12 (at 2012 Worlds). That's it.

One GP slot is guaranteed for those skaters:

"...with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 will be guaranteed one (1) event..." (GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(b))

Here is the "comeback" skaters provision in the 2011-12 GP Announcement:

c) “Come-Back” Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 at any previous ISU World Figure Skating Championships) and subsequently did not participate in one or more competitive seasons are allowed to re-enter the Grand Prix if they commit to participating in 2 Grand Prix events. A come-back under this clause is allowed only once for any skater. Subsequent to the come-back season, the skater will be considered only by his/her placement on the official lists (seeded or World Standing points, etc.). If the skater is no longer on the list, he/she will not be considered for a Grand Prix event.

Speculation on changes in 2012-13:

They've changed the GP rules several times. I'm wondering whether they will do so again this year.

I'm wondering if we will see a Plushenko rule for medallists at Europeans/4CC's to guarantee Evgeni 2 spots? If so, Zhang & Miner would also benefit.

So would Gachinski and Stolbova/Klimov.

Also, the 2012 ISU Congress proposals include a proposal from the ISU Council to no longer allow ISU Age 14 (Age 14 as of July 1, 2012) skaters to participate in the senior GP. Instead, skaters would have to be ISU Age 15 to participate, which is the same age required to participate in senior ISU Championships (Euros, 4CCs, Worlds).

[HisWeirness]

1 Patrick Chan CAN 4080
2 Daisuke Takahashi JPN 3476
3 Yuzuru Hanyu JPN 3088
4 Michal Brezina CZE 2751
5 Jeremy Abbott USA 2679
6 Artur Gachinski RUS 2625
7 Takahiko Kozuka JPN 2592
8 Samuel Contesti ITA 2435
9 Javier Fernandez ESP 2331
10 Florent Amodio FRA 2219
11 Adam Rippon USA 2013
12 Tomas Verner CZE 1936
13 Kevin Van Der Perren BEL 1893 (retiring?)
14 Brian Joubert FRA 1859
15 Alexander Majorov SWE 1851
16 Denis Ten KAZ 1850
17 Nobunari Oda JPN 1825
18 Ross Miner USA 1682
19 Han Yan CHN 1,667
20 Richard Dornbush USA 1,547
21 Takahito Mura JPN 1,337 1,465
22 Jason Brown USA 1,452
23 Tatsuki Machida JPN 1442
24 Nan Song CHN 1,408


25 Joshua Farris USA 1,317
26 Jorik Hendrickx BEL 1,275
27 Keiji Tanaka JPN 1,259
28 Konstantin Menshov RUS 1,257
29 Abzal Rakimgaliev KAZ 1,234
30 Kevin Reynolds CAN 1,228 or 1,229
31 Peter Liebers 1,205
32 Daisuke Murakami 1,192
33 Andrei Rogozine CAN 1,173

[jlai]

For some reason I ended up with 1465.3 for Mura that I put above Brown. I wonder what I did wrong?

ETA: I also have 1229 for Reynolds and 1204.7 for Peter Liebers.

ETA: also, Murakami 1191.7

[Sylvia]

For some reason I ended up with 1465.3 for Mura that I put above Brown. I wonder what I did wrong?

I got 1,465.3 the second time I did the math. HisWeirness, could you edit in jlai's corrections/additions when you get a chance, please?

21 Takahito Mura JPN 1,465
22 Jason Brown USA 1,452
23 Tatsuki Machida JPN 1442
24 Nan Song CHN 1,408
25 Joshua Farris USA 1,317
...
30 Kevin Reynolds CAN 1,229
31 Peter Liebers GER 1,205
32 Daisuke Murakami JPN 1,192
33 Andrei Rogozine CAN 1,173

[Sylvia]

According to my calculations... corrections welcomed!

1 Carolina Kostner ITA 4,289 ; SB 2
2 Akiko Suzuki JPN 3,414 ; SB 5
3 Alena Leonova RUS 3,244 ; SB 6
4 Alissa Czisny USA 2,650 ; SB 8
5 Kiira Korpi FIN 2,547 ; SB 14
6 Kanako Murakami JPN 2,450 ; SB 10
7 Viktoria Helgesson SWE 2,431; SB 21
8 Mao Asada JPN 2,362 ; SB 3
9 Adelina Sotnikova RUS 2,073 ; SB 13
10 Elene Gedevanishvili GEO 2,020 ; SB 16
11 Ksenia Makarova RUS 1,967 ; SB 22
12 Ashley Wagner USA 1,901 ; SB 1
13 Mirai Nagasu USA 1,804 ; SB 11
14 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS 1,694 ; SB 7
15 Mae Berenice Meité FRA 1,668 ; SB 42
16 Valentina Marchei ITA 1,659 ; SB 32
17 Joshi Helgesson SWE 1,584 ; SB 37
18 Haruka Imai JPN 1,556 ; SB 27
19 Agnes Zawadzki USA 1553 ; SB 25
20 Zijun Li CHN 1,549 ; SB 24
21 Amélie Lacoste CAN 1,537 ; SB 35
22 Miki Ando JPN 1,488 (status for 2012-13?)
23 Polina Shelepen RUS 1,382 ; SB 19
24 Sarah Hecken GER 1,377 ; SB 62
---
25 Cynthia Phaneuf CAN 1,371 ; SB 39

Season Best scores in Top 24 not listed in updated WS above:
Julia Lipnitskaia RUS SB 4 ; 1,100 WS points
Caroline Zhang USA SB 9
Gracie Gold USA SB 12
Sofia Biryukova RUS SB 15 ; 707 WS pts
Polina Korobeynikova RUS SB 17 ; 1,121 WS pts
Kexin Zhang CHN SB 18 ; 1,072 WS pts
Satoko Miyahara JPN SB 20 ; 754 WS pts
Risa Shoji JPN SB 23 ; 1,101 WS pts

USA ladies updated WS points:
Caroline Zhang 1,315 (#26?)
Christina Gao 1,098 ; SB 29
Rachael Flatt 1,011 ; SB 38
Vanessa Lam 796 ; SB 26
Gracie Gold 700
Samantha Cesario 553 ; SB 28

[jlai]

I have Li Ji Jun as having 1549.4

ETA: Anyway, I did it this way and it was fairly quick: I copied and pasted the whole ISU thing onto a spreadsheet, kept a column for sums and another for a calculated ISU ranking total. Then I copied the calculated totals to a place where I sorted by descending order. So I figured out immediately where the cutoff points are for the 24th skater, then any skater above that score is top 24.

[pinky166]

Will WTT scores count toward a season's best?

[Sylvia]

Will WTT scores count toward a season's best?

They did in 2009.

[flowerpower]

I'd appreciate it if someone could clarify the split couple rules (where a split couple has had a high placement in the past, and one member of the team returns with a new partner). Do the new partnerships go to the top of the alternate list? This would affect teams such as Gilles/Poirier, for example.

[feraina]

Also, the 2012 ISU Congress proposals include a proposal from the ISU Council to no longer allow ISU Age 14 (Age 14 as of July 1, 2012) skaters to participate in the senior GP. Instead, skaters would have to be ISU Age 15 to participate, which is the same age required to participate in senior ISU Championships (Euros, 4CCs, Worlds).

Hmm, which federation actually wants that? Maybe the smaller ones? I imagine the bigger ones with promising juniors would rather push them out early than not. For example, Russia'd surely want Julia Lipnitskaya to skate on the senior GP an extra season before Sochi?

[Libertango]

I just realized that due to P/B medalling (so used to them being 4th), V/M will probably not be at TEB! Anyway either Weaver/Poje or Iliynkh/Katsalapov will be fine for me. Wondering who they'll pick for men beteween Amodio and Joubert (I'm guessing Amodio?)

[Zemgirl]

I just realized that due to P/B medalling (so used to them being 4th), V/M will probably not be at TEB! Anyway either Weaver/Poje or Iliynkh/Katsalapov will be fine for me. Wondering who they'll pick for men beteween Amodio and Joubert (I'm guessing Amodio?)

I imagine Skate Canada will want W/P... Since I can't imagine V/M asking for three assignments, then yes, I think Tessa and Scott will be visiting Moscow this year, or perhaps Japan.

Both TEB and NHK have the same problem - two men in the same seeded pool. I would expect the federations to lean on the younger skaters (Hanyu/Amodio) to ask for a third event rather than give up on one of their top guys; I can't imagine either Takahashi or Joubert doing three GPs, and both placed higher at Worlds and are the national champions, so they kind of take precedence.

[haribobo]

Thanks to Sylvia for calculating the Ladies Top 24 World Rankings, which would allow for the following ladies to receive 1 GP based on the 11-12 rules:

Miki Ando, Haruka Imai, Mae Berenice Meite, Joshi Helgesson, Sarah Hecken, Agnes Zawadzki, Amelie Lacoste. (Flatt, Phaneuf, and Yuna Kim drop off the previous list I had above)

[allezfred]

NHK Trophy is a bit of a conundrum for the JSF because while Takahashi is the biggest crowd puller in Japan (yes bigger than Mao who is the TV ratings draw), the event this year is being hosted in Sendai which is Hanyu's home town.

[jlai]

So far the ladies guaranteed to have a spot are taking 43to 49 slots depending on whether top ladies do a third event (eta 45 to 51 if Miyahara doea gp)

And hosts will want their host picks
If rules dont change lots of ladies wont qualify for gp just because they wont have a second event

THE men so far have taken up 38 to 44 slots. Then you add in comebacks and host picks
BUT then only Brezina did a third gp last time so maybe more guys will end up with a second event

[Sylvia]

GP assignments were announced last year on June 27. ...
The ISU Congress and ISU Council are meeting in Kuala Lumpur in June (June 10-17). So, it'll probably be June when the assignments will be announced.

Phil Hersh's recent article on Gracie Gold and WTT mentioned that the Grand Prix assignments would be on made on May 19, which is a Saturday.

Can anyone else confirm this date?

[Anya]

NHK Trophy is a bit of a conundrum for the JSF because while Takahashi is the biggest crowd puller in Japan (yes bigger than Mao who is the TV ratings draw), the event this year is being hosted in Sendai which is Hanyu's home town.

If ISU keeps the option of 3 events for the medalists, here is no way to avoid having two medallists at some of the events. So NHK might as well get both Takahashi and Hanyu.

[GarrAarghHrumph]

At what point does the location for Skate America normally get announced?

[allezfred]

If ISU keeps the option of 3 events for the medalists, here is no way to avoid having two medallists at some of the events. So NHK might as well get both Takahashi and Hanyu.

I think that will only happen if Hanyu wants to do three events as I'm fairly sure that Takahashi won't (probably NHK and then one out of Skate America and Skate Canada. Europe ).

[allezfred]

At what point does the location for Skate America normally get announced?