1998 Olympics Ladies FS Under COP

[Coco]

I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.

When I've done this in the past , I figure out their average value per jumping pass and multiply by 7. The tricky question is whether or not MK's 3 loop 2t series counts as a series or as two jumping passes. Obviously, she wouldn't have wasted a jumping pass on a 2t, and if she'd repeated a 3loop w/o doing it in combo/series, it would have been devalued by .2 anyway.

Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

I don't think there was anything wrong with ladies scoring in '98. I think of it as the day the sport became, well, a sport. If those skates had been performed anytime prior, Kwan would have won, but not since.

I think they would have been even after the SP, because Tara's 1.50 advantage from doing a 3f would have been balanced by less GOE on jumps.

It's kind of pointless/unfair to compare spins and steps as skaters basically do what they have to under any system.

[leafygreens]

Please don't speak for me or others.

I speak for fairness.

[Coco]

and melodrama!

[fenway2]

and melodrama!

[Louis]

Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

The big loser would be Lu Chen, where almost every jump would be < or <<.

I wonder if bronze would be Slutskaya or Butyrskaya. Hard to say.

[casken]

Kwan would have had a huge lead after the SP, much larger than just being 1st in the 6.0 "control your own destiny" scenario. I think she might have come in 2nd in the LP by less than her lead in the SP, therefore winning in a Scott Hamiliton sort of way . . . but this is just the same old debate in a new form.

Would Butyrskaya have fared better in the sp under COP than uder 6.0? She was the only one with a clean lutz on the correct edge, and did it in combo with a double loop, which puts her ahead of Kwan and Lipinski. She also did a more difficult solo jump compared to Kwan, and a higher quality solo jump compared to Lipinski.

I tend to think Slutskaya would have medaled overall. She had two mistakes between the sp and lp, but would have gained GOE points back for the spins, the arm over the head variation on the double axel and excellent solo triple loop right out of the three turns in the sp, and well as doing a triple/triple combo in the lp past the halfway mark.

I think Chen Lu would have done way worse considering all her lutzes would probably be called UR and many of the other jumps, as well as spins, were a bit below par.

[bardtoob]

^ I see the PCS and lead building opportunity as the biggest factor. It does so much for even skaters that fall. Presentation marks were neither as helpful nor as forgive under the 6.0 system.

It is true that the TES is very debatable and Kwan did not have the highest in Nagano. A lot of factors would've been removed if Kwan had done the 3F preceded by steps, as she did at Nationals and was capable of doing since 1995 Worlds. Actually, it still irritates me that she didn't because I'm inclined to believe that it would have helped her under either system, removing doubt of her dominance ... same old stinking debate.

BTW, Bonaly would have done much better under the IJS because she actual "skated" proper quite well in the SP and the TES base value of a 3T/3T is higher in the COPs than 3Lz/2T although everybody in Nagano was claiming it was a lesser combination and the same can be said for her 3S preceded by steps vs 3T preceded steps ... Everybody was saying it was easier but the COPs says otherwise. I actual think this performance of Caravan was her undisputed best performance ever.

[BmcC102]

Just jumps wise:

Tara had 6 jumping passes.

Michelle had 8 jumping passes.

If COP were around, undoubtedly they'd both have seven passes, so this whole discussion is kindof moot.

Tara looses points for edge calls on both lutzes (but again, if COP were around, she'd probably had done two flips instead). I think her 3-3 was good. Her flip was a true flip and the only well-landed 3 flip in the final group that night. Her axel was small (but Carolina and Julia Lip. also have similar technique on axel and they never get -GEO for it...).

Michelle probably looses points for edge calls on her lutzes or her flip, or maybe even both the lutzes and flip (like Nagasu, as Louis said). She probably would have turned her 3 loop-turn-2 toe sequence into a true combination. (Note: She often did this turn in between jumps earlier in her career.) One wonky landing on the flip and maybe an underrotated 3 loop?

Either way, they are the top two skaters!

[briancoogaert]

Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

Uber ? No. But I don't understand what you say. Her Flip is a flip (on the CBS video, it's clearly an inside edge), and her second Lutz is not questionnable, IMO. The first one would have had a e or a !.
Anyway, for sure, all Tara's lutzes would have been e, without any doubt.
Michelle's second Loop is complete for me, but without slomo, I can't say. The same for Tara's second Loop.
So, I don't see how Tara's jumps are cleaner, when Tara has two e, and maybe a <, against Michelle's ! and maybe <. Plus, Michelle clean jumps were fabulous (Salchow, Toe, Loop, Axel), bigger than Tara's jumps.

[millyskate]

Not sure the PCS would have gone all Kwan's way either... Tara was on fire and I still think of that performance as one of the best in the history of women's figure skating. Tara would also have had some "late in the program" jump bonuses.
I clearly think of Tara as the better spinner, under COP it's all about getting the levels - not being elegant!

[taf2002]

Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

Under current rules, those jumps (a sequence, not a combo) would not have received all those points. I'm not sure about the 3t but the 3s was horribly UR.

[fsfan22]

Lipinski did a 3 flip and kwan did a 3 toe solo jump in the short- We are all forgetting the horrid edge call on Lipinski's lutz edge and she had 3 between both programs.

Just for another perspective, I would've given Kwan an "e" on both lutzes and her triple flip (the way Nagasu often gets). Plus, at minimum a < and probably a << on the second triple loop. So, from my perspective, Lipinski's jumps were actually cleaner both in terms of edge and rotation. Let the ubers disagree.....

Michelle's Lutz was definitely a 'flutz' too ... although not as obvious as Tara's. Louis is also right in that Michelle's Flip was also a 'lip'. I think she corrected the Flip after time, but it was definitely a 'lip' at the 98 Olympics.

[gkelly]

Under current rules, those jumps (a sequence, not a combo) would not have received all those points.

Under 2012 rules it's a three-jump combo: 3T+1Lo+3S
Are you still thinking 2004-2010 rules?

I'm not sure about the 3t but the 3s was horribly UR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pKT4e9sjYI&t=4m01s

I'd prefer a clearer video with slow motion, but it looks OK to me -- not 90 degrees UR, much less "horribly."

[Dilng]

I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.

When I've done this in the past , I figure out their average value per jumping pass and multiply by 7. The tricky question is whether or not MK's 3 loop 2t series counts as a series or as two jumping passes. Obviously, she wouldn't have wasted a jumping pass on a 2t, and if she'd repeated a 3loop w/o doing it in combo/series, it would have been devalued by .2 anyway.

Under current rules, Tara's final 3t-1/2loop-3sal would have been treated as a 3 jump combo: 8.8+ .88 = 9.68

I don't think there was anything wrong with ladies scoring in '98. I think of it as the day the sport became, well, a sport. If those skates had been performed anytime prior, Kwan would have won, but not since.

I think they would have been even after the SP, because Tara's 1.50 advantage from doing a 3f would have been balanced by less GOE on jumps.

It's kind of pointless/unfair to compare spins and steps as skaters basically do what they have to under any system.

ITA!!!

[alchemy void]

I think Lipinski clearly wins over Kwan.

What's fascinating for me, is just below that.

Butyrskaya had a great SP that would have put her right in the mix with MK and TL. However, the LP was a different story. 5 shaky triples, no combinations, two jumping passes of 2toe. Definitely 5th in the freeskate, for me, behind Slutskaya and Gusmeroli.

Slutskaya had a great COP friendly LP. 5 strong triples, superior spins, a triple triple after the halfway point, decent transitions into some of the jumps. Even with a double lutz in the SP I think she easily wins bronze as that SP was one of her best stylistically and filled with content: footwork into the loop, tano axel, spins, good transitons, etc.

Gusmeroli's LP was definitely 4th for me. Her popped lutz in the SP keeps her below Butyrskaya overall though. But that LP is an overlooked masterpiece: great theme, elements, choreography, and tons of trnasitions.

So I'd guess something like this in the SP
Kwan, Lipinski, Butyrskaya all relatively close

Gap

4. Bonaly
5. Slutskaya
6. Malinina (great TES, terrible PCS) or Lu (great PCS, terrible TES)
8. Gusmeroli

LP
1. Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Gusmeroli
5. Butyrskaya
6. Chen Lu or Malinina
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly, Lavrrnchuk, etc

Overall
1.Lipinski
2. Kwan
3. Slutskaya
4. Butyrskaya
5. Gusmeroli
6. Malinina
7. Lu (i think her TES would be so low)
8. Sokolova
9. Bonaly

[gkelly]

We could get a more accurate result for the short program than for the long, since the minimum requirements are pretty much the same now. No worries about maximum number of jumps or spins.

Count all the spiral sequences as transitions or as Choreo spiral sequence? Either way, it'll be more fair than trying to impose 2004-2010 spiral sequence level rules on 1998 spiral sequences.

I expect all the step sequences to be level 1 (so GOE will prevail), and

We could have an FSU judging game and find out how we would call and judge those short programs.

That still doesn't tell us how a panel of 1998-trained judges or 2012-trained judges would have judged it, or how the skaters would have designed their programs with their 1998 skills if they'd known they'd be judged by 2012 rules.

But if we trust the FSU volunteer tech panel, we can get a good sense of how the base marks would have worked out.

After that, will the GOEs and PCS come down to how many Kwan fans or Lipinski fans or Butyrskaya fans etc. volunteer to judge? Or can we get enough posters to try to judge impartially even if their favorite skater is involved?

[Aussie Willy]

BTW, Bonaly would have done much better under the IJS because she actual "skated" proper quite well in the SP and the TES base value of a 3T/3T is higher in the COPs than 3Lz/2T although everybody in Nagano was claiming it was a lesser combination and the same can be said for her 3S preceded by steps vs 3T preceded steps ... Everybody was saying it was easier but the COPs says otherwise. I actual think this performance of Caravan was her undisputed best performance ever.

She still did not have quality skating skills and whilst that program might have been one of her best ones, she really didn't have any finese or great quality to her movement.

[attyfan]

I don't think her spin in 2 directions would have been recognized as 1 spin featuring both directions under COP.
...

I'm not all that knowledgeable about the details of the CoP, so I am curious as to why you think this is so. Is there a particular requirement of the CoP that would prevent her spin from being recognized?

[gkelly]

I'm not all that knowledgeable about the details of the CoP, so I am curious as to why you think this is so. Is there a particular requirement of the CoP that would prevent her spin from being recognized?

Yes. There's no reward under IJS just for doing a spin in the opposite direction from the skater's usual spin direction. The reward is to spin in both directions in the same spin. That's one feature toward a higher level for that spin -- if there's also one other feature, the spin would earn level 2; if there are three or four features in total it would earn level 3 or 4.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AVOsh2Y5FE&t=2m40s
Kwan does a layback counterclockwise, then a crossover before stepping into a camel clockwise, and then toe turns before stepping into a sit/upright combination counterclockwise. So it's three separate spins and they would all be level 1.

She would need to step directly from one spinning foot to the other to change direction, without too large a break in the spinning action or too large a distance between the spinning centers on each foot.
(More recently, Rachael Flatt often used the reverse direction feature under IJS and sometimes had the two parts of the spins called as separate spins because of a too-large gap.)

If Kwan had done reverse camel directly into the combination it could have been level 2 if the Y position as she executed it is considered a difficult variation. There were no other possible features in that sequence of spins under 2012 rules even if all three spins had been combined into a single combination.

Then there's the issue of 2012 rules allowing a maximum of three spins total and requiring that one of them have a flying entrance. By doing four, five, or six shorter spins separately, as was not unusual at the time, several of them would not count at all under today's rules.

The rules were different then. If Kwan had known then what the rules are now, she probably could have designed a spin to use the change of direction feature without significant need to develop new skills. The same, of course, is true of most of the other skaters in that event.

[Sasha'sSpins]

Please don't speak for me or others.

Nor me.

I speak for fairness.

Right.

and melodrama!

Tara may have had faster spins, but Michelle spun in BOTH directions... Tara had one hard jumping pass but likely would have had edge calls. Michelle had one wonky landing but fully rotated. The quality and basics of MK's skating were so above and beyond Tara's, and that's where she should have won IMO. It's pretty obvious MK had bad luck because of the skate order. In IJS the SP would have counted towards MK's total score, but under 6.0 she basically went into the FS starting over and tied with Tara, so the SP has to be judged as well to use IJS. It's the same debate over and over, but we all know who the real winner is. Like everybody said at MK's induction ceremony, "She would have won in any Olympics BUT that one" -- Also Scott saying "These would have been 6.0s had she been the last skater" -- I think that tells everyone that something was wrong with the ladies' scoring in 98.

"WE all know'? Like fenway2 said, please don't speak for me either.

My opinions on the Lipinksi/Kwan Olympic showdown aren't formed by biased sentimental speeches spoken at induction ceremonies. Also, please do not assume that I would ever think everything Scott Hamilton has to say is Bible. The man all but said during the men's 2002 FS that Timothy Goebbel actually had a chance at beating Alexei Yagudin after the Russian's FS. During Yagudin's skate he said Alexei was being 'conservative' although he qualified his comments after by admitting Yagudin had just competed 2 quads in his program. The man is a clown.

Speaking for MYSELF, on the night I gave Tara the Olympic title over Michelle. She just seemed to sparkle out there while nailing her jumps including 2 difficult jump combos that Kwan did not have. Michelle seemed to skate not to lose while Tara seemed to skate just for the joy of it-and to win.

Back OT under COP likely Kwan would have the edge based on Lipinski's low jumps, URs and wrong edges on several of her jumps. Likely she would have outscored Lipinski PCS as well. On the other hand...

Not sure the PCS would have gone all Kwan's way either... Tara was on fire and I still think of that performance as one of the best in the history of women's figure skating. Tara would also have had some "late in the program" jump bonuses.

I clearly think of Tara as the better spinner, under COP it's all about getting the levels - not being elegant!

^^^^^
...THIS!