Last edited by Sylvia; 02-21-2012 at 05:04 PM.
I'm not saying Brown won't have great success as a senior, I'm a big fan of his skating and hope he continues to do well, I just didn't understand the comments comparing Farris to Miner and Dornbush that implied all three were forgettable i.e. going nowhere, nothing special, when so far they have all done really well internationally and none of them have the huge concern of not having a crucial jump in their arsenal like Brown, who the poster seemed to be promoting as the chosen one prematurely. Everyone is free to hype whoever they want, but this is a question I'd like to know, do people think that if Jason can't get a 3a or a consistent one, that he could still tear up the senior ranks? That's more the pertinent question, and skaters like Lambiel have been able to do it before. Idk if he has a quad in practice or anything but it wouldn't surprise me as his toe jumps appear much stronger than his axel jumps.
Last edited by pinky166; 02-21-2012 at 06:14 PM.
Sorry, didn't see this until now. I am going on what I read in another thread where there was discussion about JGP scores not being counted, forcing transitioning juniors to do a Senior B event before they Senior GP which is not possible for all skaters. I'm not 100% sure this is correct information, sorry.
Juniors skating as Juniors at International Bs do not earn ISU ranking points. Only Seniors get points when they finish top 5 at International Bs, so Junior skaters can earn International B points if they compete as Seniors.
JGP points do count, of course.
Ladies: 117.48 (top score: 201.34)
Men: 168.60 (top score: 280.98)
Pairs: 130.71 (top score: 217.85)
Dance: 111.15 (top score: 185.27)
Before Worlds, the top scores so far are:
Ashley Wagner: 192.41 (4C's), 60%=115.45
Patrick Chan: 273.9 (4C's), 60%=164.34
Savchenko/Szolkowy: 212.26 (GPF), 60%=127.36
Davis/White: 188.55 (GPF), 60%=113.13
Before Worlds, the following skaters' top scores are:
Farris: 207.67 (JGPF, 24 SB)
Brown: 208.41 (JGP Tallinn, 21 SB)
Han: 219.37 (JGP Lombardo, 16 SB)
Dolensky: 176.77 (JGP Volvo, 49 SB)
Warren: 166.42 (JGP Brisbane, 63 SB)
Dmitriev Jr.: 197.09 (JGP Baltic, 30 SB)
Firus: 180.00 (JGP Brisbane, 45 SB)
Kihara: 173.31 (JGP Baltic, 53 SB)
Assuming the calculation and requirements are the same for next year's GP,
Bush is the only one who doesn't have a score on the SB list and could only get a host pick. Warren would just qualify if no one scores higher than Chan's 4C's total score at Worlds. The highest score would have to be 288.85 or higher for Kihara to come short, and 294.62 for Dolensky to not qualify.
At this rate, Han Yan is likely to be guaranteed one spot (and likely get two) as Top 24 SB, if he moves to Seniors. All of this year's Top 24 Men skated Seniors. Brown has an outside shot at remaining in Top 24.
Cesario: 153.84 (JGP Baltic, 28 SB)
Lipnitskaya: 183.05 (JGP Lombardi, 5 SB)
Lam: 156.58 (JGP Austria, 26 SB)
Shoji: 157.83 (JGP Tallinn, 23 SB)
Li: 157.70 (YOG, 24 SB)
Korobeynikova: 164.13 (Euros, 17 SB)
Gold: 172.69 (JGP Tallinn, 11 SB)
All of these Ladies will easily qualify the GP minimum, and Lipnitskaya and Gold will stay Top 24 SB, and Korobeynikova likely will as well. Shoji and Li could remain Top 24 as well with their current scores.
Duarte/Grafton: 127.54 (JGP Austria, 44 SB)
Petaikina/Kurduykov: 146.17 (JGPF, 29 SB)
Duarte/Grafton would just squeak by if no one scores higher than S/S's 212.26 at GPF, but that's unlikely to hold. Would Deputat be old enough to skate seniors, even if they had a score?
It's also possible for any skater/team without a qualifying score on the SB list to qualify in one of the Fall Senior B's before GP, if they are an original host pick. (Substitutes, even for TBD, it seems from this year's behavior, don't need to qualify.)
"The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy
Andrei Deputat turned 19 in December. They will get a SB score in their international debut at Junior Worlds next week.
ETA that Polina Shelepen's current SB total score is 162.34 (JGPF, 19 SB).
Thanks for compiling all this info, kwanfan1818!
Last edited by Sylvia; 02-23-2012 at 01:48 AM.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=79281&page=24 (starting with post #467)
Of course we will have to wait for the 2012-13 ISU Grand Prix Announcement to be published to see if any changes have been made in the GP selection process for next season.
ETA: The reduction of GP singles slots from 12 to 10 definitely had a negative impact on the number of GP opportunities for skaters just up from junior. Here's a list of JGP and/or Junior Worlds competitors from the 2010-11 season that were assigned to at least 1 Senior Grand Prix event this season:
Men - Dornbush USA (2), Rogozine CAN (2), Majorov SWE (1), Ponsart FRA (1 host pick)
Ladies - Sotnikova RUS (2), Tuktamysheva RUS (2), Gao USA (2), K. Zhang CHN (1 host pick), Silete FRA (1 host pick), Q Zhu CHN (1 host pick, was on 2009 JGP)
Pairs - Sui/Han CHN (2; have done both JGP/GP for 2 years now), Takahashi/Tran JPN (2; GP only this season), Stolbova/Klimov RUS (both JGP/1 GP), Cain/Reagan USA (1), Yu/Jin CHN (1; also did JGP), Steele/Schultz CAN (1), Jones/Gaskell CAN (1), Purich/Schultz CAN (1), Kadlecova/Bidar CZE (both JGP/1 GP this season and last)
Dance - Monko/Khavalin RUS (2 but WD from both), Pushkash/Guerreiro RUS (2), Lichtman/Copely USA (1), Alessandrini/Vaturi ITA (1; had 2 last season but WD from both), Hurtado/Diaz ESP (1), Zahorski/Miart FRA (1 host pick but WD)
2011 Junior Worlds competitors that aged out of ISU Junior but were not picked for a GP this season: Messing USA (4th), Aaron USA (5th), Bush RUS (11th) in men; Cannuscio/McManus USA (7th) in dance.
Last edited by Sylvia; 02-23-2012 at 04:34 AM.
where did you hear that ? if its true hope they replace him with Kovtun.
Bush competed in B Competitions as a senior this season
but not counted as any of those for a SB ?
I'm confusing Bush with someone else. Bush is fine.
This year, the Season's Best list consists only of Junior and Senior Grand Prix's, including Finals, Championships, and Youth Olympic Games. When a Senior B serves as an Olympic qualifier, then that score can count, as well as the Olympics in Olympic seasons
This year, a skater/team could meet the GP minimum in one of the listed fall Senior B's in the GP announcement. All Senior B's on the International Competition list put out each year by the ISU for count for earning minimum TES scores for championships, which are a much lower bar than minimum GP scores.
"The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy
My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.
I made the comparison to Farris, sure he has good donut spin, beillman, balletic feminine style skating, jumps but his overall skating isn't that memorable enough, we have plenty of that from Dornbush, Rippon and even Miner. whos to say Borwn wont get his 3A. It will take time but if gets them all together, no doubt Brown has a brighter future ahead than Farris, imho
One thing Brown isn't, is forgettable.
Learning to be not forgettable is harder than learning a triple axel, if it isn't born in you. There are very, very few skaters who have learned to be memorable, IMO.
Brian Boitano comes to mind as a skater who learned to be unforgettable, having previously been forgettable except for his death drop and 3A. Right this minute I'm drawing a blank as to others. Clearly they were forgettable, because I've forgotten them
And it is possible to be athletically or artistically or personally or musically memorable. There isn't just one type of memorable.
Tonya Harding and Gracie Gold both fall in that athletically memorable bucket for me ("that's the most amazing jump I've ever seen" type memorable). It is possible to be crowd pleasingly memorable (Chris Bowman & Ryan Bradley). It is possible to be "that's just so cool" memorable (Jason Brown and Keegan Messing, in different ways, by doing movements and stuff that is different and pleasingly memorable). It's possible to become so much a part of the music that when the music plays, I see a skater skating to it-usually ice dancers )
YMMV, but I find Ricky Dornbush, Max Aaron, & Joshua Farris (well except when he was skating on a broken bone, and that's a terrible way to be memorable) all forgettable so far.
Miner reminds me a bit of a male Rachael Flatt. Consistent but forgettable and will probably never make a World Podium.
I mean, Lysacek IMHO is a bit boring, and was definitely quite boring earlier on in his career, but he won OGM. I think Dornbush has his own unique style that really comes out when he is skating well, which explains why he scores so well when he delivers. He is very theatrical and gets into character well, he is struggling now but he can bounce back and when he does I expect him to do well on the international stage. Rippon has a lovely lyrical style and if he was stronger in the jumps department he could be a World beater I bet. The only thing holding him back is his jumping ability which isn't so strong. He's like Johnny Weir. Which again brings me to Brown, who yes is fab and has a great style, but for the men, not being able to jump well/consistently hurts more than being a little boring in style, so the no 3a yet really worries me. I mean, look at Euros, Plushenko has pizazz but his skating is so.robotic, and Gatchinski is just like his 17 year old clone. Joubert managed to win a World title and all those European medals with his meat and potatoes skating. So therefore...being boring isn't as big of a setback as it might seem.
Johnny Weir is a big fan of Farris, and he usually doesn't like the boring skaters so much. All the commentators at nationals talked about how talented he is, and he really is, both in terms of jumping, spinning, and emoting. He's maybe a little bland now but he just turned 17 and if you look at his artistic progression since leaving Tom Z. just last year, it's really impressive. Plus I admire his resilience. That kid is made of tough stuff. Idk. I like his style and think he could go far. He reminds me a bit of a young Savoie. I really hope he can medal at JW next week.