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  1. #1

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    Skaters moving up from JGP to senior GP?

    Well, some will only get to senior B's instead of GP. But anyway, who is likely to move from juniors to seniors next season internationally?

    MEN- Possibly Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, and Yan Han but not definitely. Tim Dolensky and Philip Warren are aging out. I believe Artur Dmitriev Jr., Liam Firus, and Ryuichi Kihara are also. Zhan Bush will be at Jr. Worlds but already was doing senior B's this year so I imagine he'll be on the GP series.

    LADIES- Possibly Polina Shelepen and Samantha Cesario, and maybe Julia Lipnitskaya. It's probably about time for Vanessa Lam, Risa Shoji, Zijun Li, and Polina Korobeinikova to think about moving up also. Not sure about Gracie Gold's plans, she has only done 1 JGP event so far.

    PAIRS- I haven't really been keeping track except I do know that Duarte/Grafton are aging out and Sui/Han have been doing both senior and junior. Are Davankova/Deputat and Petaikina/Kurduykov old enough for senior GP?
    Last edited by haribobo; 02-18-2012 at 04:26 PM.

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    Some of these people need to post scores high enough to be assigned to a senior grand prix.

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    I'm hoping Joshua and Jason can and will move up. US has a contingent of talented novice men that could use a JGP--Shum, Spencer Howe, and perhaps even Jimmy Ma all could use one, though USFS seldom goes down that far in the novice list. But with some US junior men aging out perhaps the kiddies have a shot.

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    Philip Warren hasn't a prayer for a GP.
    Beefcake's fancy, saccharine, artsy, drag bingo cliche effusing, bipolar, OTT fashionista manchild

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    On this subject, what's with the ISU's recent rule that discounts junior event points for senior GP selection? Are they trying to hold back young talent?

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    ^^^ Can you elaborate further or do you have a link?

    Generally speaking, it's hard for the U.S. Junior men's medalists who are JGP age-ineligible to get a Senior B -- 2011 Junior champ Max Aaron (a respectable 5th at 2011 Junior Worlds got him to #36 on the 2010-11 SB scores list) only got Nebelhorn, while 2011 U.S. silver and bronze medalists Alex Zahradnicek and Alex Aiken didn't receive an international assignment this season. The 2012 U.S. Junior men's silver and bronze medalists, Timothy Dolensky (going to Junior Worlds) and Philip Warren are currently #49 and #63, rexpectively, on the SB list.
    Last edited by Sylvia; 02-18-2012 at 07:52 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayar View Post
    Philip Warren hasn't a prayer for a GP.
    Shame he missed out on JW. If he skated like he did at nationals there, then he'd likely place well and do enough to at least get a senior B or something.

    Currently, Brown, Farris, and Yan are all in the Top 24 SB list, so that makes them eligible for GP assignments yes? Of course after Worlds they could fall off that list, but they could also post new SBs at JW that could keep them on it. I think if these three all medal at JW and stay in the top 24 SB list, they will move up to the GP, and possibly even get 2 assignments (Yan would for sure with CoC, and one of the Americans could be given SA to get a 2nd assignment if they don't already have two). Whoever doesn't medal will likely stay on the JGP for another season, and even if Jason Brown medals, if he still doesn't have his 3a ready he could benefit from another season on the JGP.

    I really hope Josh Farris delivers at JW because I really think he is ready for the senior ranks when he skates well, his 3a is solid, he's started trying 4t in competition, spins are great, and his skating is very mature and elegant for one so young. Plus the international judges love him. But he is also probably the one most likely to fall off the podium at JW of these three because he isn't always the most consistent. However, if he's clean, I think he is the clear winner, especially if he goes for the 4t in the FS. Yan is strong technically but is not as artistic or mature as Farris, or as strong in the spins. Jason is similarly artistic and a good spinner, and also has pizazz, but does not match Josh in content. Bush is a jumping machine but doesn't have much else. He can get on the podium or even win if the others make mistakes, but his PCS will make it harder for him to get to the podium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Shame he missed out on JW. If he skated like he did at nationals there, then he'd likely place well and do enough to at least get a senior B or something.
    His world ranking doesn't have any bearing on his ability to get a Senior B. He will have to skate well in summer competitions-- he is certainly on the radar with his 3rd place finish in San Jose. A Grand Prix would be a miracle-- his only shot is Skate America, and he will be late in a long list of skaters. Abbott is likely going to get an invite to SA, and if Weir is serious about a comeback, then he probably has a good shot. The third spot will go to one of Rippon, Miner, Mahbanoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere, Messing, Aaron, Brown, Dornbush, Farris, or Dolensky.
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    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    Well, some will only get to senior B's instead of GP. But anyway, who is likely to move from juniors to seniors next season internationally?

    MEN- Possibly Joshua Farris, Jason Brown, and Yan Han but not definitely. Tim Dolensky and Philip Warren are aging out. I believe Artur Dmitriev Jr., Liam Firus, and Ryuichi Kihara are also. Zhan Bush will be at Jr. Worlds but already was doing senior B's this year so I imagine he'll be on the GP series.

    LADIES- Possibly Polina Shelepen and Samantha Cesario, and maybe Julia Lipnitskaya. It's probably about time for Vanessa Lam, Risa Shoji, Zijun Li, and Polina Korobeinikova to think about moving up also. Not sure about Gracie Gold's plans, she has only done 1 JGP event so far.

    PAIRS- I haven't really been keeping track except I do know that Duarte/Grafton are aging out and Sui/Han have been doing both senior and junior. Are Davankova/Deputat and Petaikina/Kurduykov old enough for senior GP?
    Men: Tomothy Dolensky, Dimitriev, Zhan Bush are aging out for juniors
    Han Yan I believe will go to seniors next season, Brown and Farris could stay another season. I see long term potential for Brown for Farris he could turn into another Dornbush or Miner, forgettable although I would love to be proven wrong

    Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
    Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet

    Ice Dance: Sinitsina/Zhiganshin may go seniors next season

    Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
    Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp

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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011 View Post
    Men: Tomothy Dolensky, Dimitriev, Zhan Bush are aging out for juniors
    Han Yan I believe will go to seniors next season, Brown and Farris could stay another season. I see long term potential for Brown for Farris he could turn into another Dornbush or Miner, forgettable although I would love to be proven wrong

    Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
    Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet

    Ice Dance: Sinitsina/Zhiganshin may go seniors next season

    Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
    Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp
    How is Miner forgettable? He's done extremely well for himself this season, exceeding everyone's expectations by medaling at a GP, Nationals, and 4CC. Dornbush is in a bit of a rough spot now but I wouldn't call him forgettable either. I'm more worried about Brown's future than Farris's at this point to be honest, as Farris has a consistent 3a and has started trying the 4t in competition, and Brown has not done 3a in competition yet and I haven't heard anything about him even training a quad. Brown I fear could be the next Rippon, who lucked out this season and made it to Worlds, but with Miner's recent success I think the USFS will start to put him ahead of Rippon starting next season, Rippon doesn't get great marks internationally anyways and Miner is on the upswing. USFS already prefers Dornbush to Rippon Ricky just gave it away when he bombed nats. Brown has all the other qualities but it doesn't matter if he can't get a consistent 3a or a quad. Farris's issues are mostly stamina in the LP/consistency, which are more easily learned than a 3a or 4t, both of which he has already mastered with good technique. The rest of Farris's skating is strong as well.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    How is Miner forgettable? He's done extremely well for himself this season, exceeding everyone's expectations by medaling at a GP, Nationals, and 4CC. Dornbush is in a bit of a rough spot now but I wouldn't call him forgettable either. I'm more worried about Brown's future than Farris's at this point to be honest, as Farris has a consistent 3a and has started trying the 4t in competition, and Brown has not done 3a in competition yet and I haven't heard anything about him even training a quad. Brown I fear could be the next Rippon, who lucked out this season and made it to Worlds, but with Miner's recent success I think the USFS will start to put him ahead of Rippon starting next season, Rippon doesn't get great marks internationally anyways and Miner is on the upswing. USFS already prefers Dornbush to Rippon Ricky just gave it away when he bombed nats. Brown has all the other qualities but it doesn't matter if he can't get a consistent 3a or a quad. Farris's issues are mostly stamina in the LP/consistency, which are more easily learned than a 3a or 4t, both of which he has already mastered with good technique. The rest of Farris's skating is strong as well.
    Why would Jason be training for a quad since he hasn't even done a 3axel in competition yet? I think he's a better all around skater then Farris and if and when he gets the jumps he will jump up to near the top of the list of US men. Didn't Patrick Chan take awhile to get his 3xel too? Now look at him. He didn't rush to get his quad either and it worked out for him. Not saying that Jason will be as good as Chan but he alreday has better skating skills then most of the top Senior men.
    Last edited by Jammers; 02-20-2012 at 06:19 PM.

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    Brown's coach did mention that he was having trouble with the 3A; Chan won Canadian Nationals with this skate at 17, same age as Brown is now. If you asked me to wager, I'd go with Farris. Landing a 3A and a 4T puts him in good stead for next season, and ramps up the TES at world juniors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011 View Post
    Ladies: Samantha Cesario, Vanessa Lam, Polina Shelepeen, Korobeynikova,
    Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Gold if she goes ahead with seniors. Lipnitskaya can go to GP next season but not senior worlds yet
    Ok, I'm pretty confident that everyone on there except for the American ladies is a lock. The US ladies may not be. In the cases of Gold and Lam, JW is key. In the case of Cesario, it's going to take some serious summer success to prove that she merits the host pick. Otherwise, I see her going to Senior B's next fall. Honestly, I feel like she's in a bind until she makes it to Nationals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by victoriaheidi View Post
    In the case of Cesario, it's going to take some serious summer success to prove that she merits the host pick.
    A lot of us felt that she would have been a good pick for Skate America after her amazing skate at Liberty this year, but she chose to do junior events instead so Joelle had a pretty clear path to the spot. If Samantha shows up this summer in the same form as she was last summer, I don't really know why she shouldn't be considered for SA- unless of course she goes the junior route for ANOTHER year. She did medal at both her JGP's which puts her into Team Envelope C, and qualified for Nationals, so its not as if she has no accomplishments to her name. And her season's best score is pretty high up there also, so she may end up with a GP spot even if its not Skate America. I'd love to see her avoid injury for a whole season also, but this is not a skater to be ignored either way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011 View Post
    Pairs: probably Sui/Han and Bobak/Beharry
    Davankova is 14 years old now and Deputat is 19 so they can go to gp seniors next season and still compete at jgp
    Sui/Han could actually do two more years on the JGP circuit. Han's birthday is listed as August 6, 1992 on their ISU bio. Unless there are some rule changes, this team could easily earn a record as the team with the most Jr. Worlds titles. According to another forum, they are set to tie the record this year. Natalia Krestianinova/Alexei Torchinski won three years in a row (90, 91, 92). Sui/Han could conceivably earn five titles before they age out.

    Bobak/Beharry also have another year of eligibility. Beharry's birthday is listed as November 28, 1991.

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    Huh?

    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    How is Miner forgettable? He's done extremely well for himself this season, exceeding everyone's expectations by medaling at a GP, Nationals, and 4CC. Dornbush is in a bit of a rough spot now but I wouldn't call him forgettable either. I'm more worried about Brown's future than Farris's at this point to be honest, as Farris has a consistent 3a and has started trying the 4t in competition, and Brown has not done 3a in competition yet and I haven't heard anything about him even training a quad. Brown I fear could be the next Rippon, who lucked out this season and made it to Worlds, but with Miner's recent success I think the USFS will start to put him ahead of Rippon starting next season, Rippon doesn't get great marks internationally anyways and Miner is on the upswing. USFS already prefers Dornbush to Rippon Ricky just gave it away when he bombed nats. Brown has all the other qualities but it doesn't matter if he can't get a consistent 3a or a quad. Farris's issues are mostly stamina in the LP/consistency, which are more easily learned than a 3a or 4t, both of which he has already mastered with good technique. The rest of Farris's skating is strong as well.

    What does this mean?
    In addition to National Junior title and the JGP final Champ, Rippon earned 2 World Junior Champ titles, 1 Four Continents Gold, a National Senior Silver and a couple of Grand Prix medals....why is that so fearful??????
    You are much too quick to annoinmt the "next great one" like Gao and Dornbush and even quicker to dismiss others as washed up who do well like Brown and Ribbon. Makes no sense.
    How do you know who is in favor, where is your evidence? I think Brown and Farris are in good hands and will find their way in their own time not anyone elses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    A lot of us felt that she would have been a good pick for Skate America after her amazing skate at Liberty this year, but she chose to do junior events instead so Joelle had a pretty clear path to the spot. If Samantha shows up this summer in the same form as she was last summer, I don't really know why she shouldn't be considered for SA- unless of course she goes the junior route for ANOTHER year. She did medal at both her JGP's which puts her into Team Envelope C, and qualified for Nationals, so its not as if she has no accomplishments to her name. And her season's best score is pretty high up there also, so she may end up with a GP spot even if its not Skate America. I'd love to see her avoid injury for a whole season also, but this is not a skater to be ignored either way.
    Yeah, the more I read what I've written about Samantha in the past, the more I question why I seem to sound negative when I discuss her. In truth, I like her skating and her programs, but she's not my favorite US lady, and I just don't feel like she's proven herself to be as super-brilliant as a lot of FSUers think she is. I mean, people here had her in the last warm-up group at Worlds 2012, IIRC.

    Then again, I may just be anti-hype. I love Gracie Gold and I have for a very long time now, but I don't like the hype on her, either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    A lot of us felt that she would have been a good pick for Skate America after her amazing skate at Liberty this year, but she chose to do junior events instead so Joelle had a pretty clear path to the spot. If Samantha shows up this summer in the same form as she was last summer, I don't really know why she shouldn't be considered for SA- unless of course she goes the junior route for ANOTHER year. She did medal at both her JGP's which puts her into Team Envelope C, and qualified for Nationals, so its not as if she has no accomplishments to her name. And her season's best score is pretty high up there also, so she may end up with a GP spot even if its not Skate America. I'd love to see her avoid injury for a whole season also, but this is not a skater to be ignored either way.
    Samantha typically has a fantastic summer season, which is great news for her! I hope she can come back and impress the hell out of the officials at Liberty like she did last year. I would love it if she got the host pick, any other GP is doubtful. It's so, so unfortunate she's had to miss Nationals twice in a row now. I felt like last year was her year to make a big step forward. She accomplished that on the JGP, and I think she definitely could have been top six in the US if she skated like she did on the JGP. Now, I feel like this year is her absolutely last chance. She needs to make some strides now, or I fear she will be lost in the shuffle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Why would Jason be training for a quad since he hasn't even done a 3axel in competition yet? I think he's a better all around skater then Farris and if and when he gets the jumps he will jump up to near the top of the list of US men. Didn't Patrick Chan take awhile to get his 3xel too? Now look at him. He didn't rush to get his quad either and it worked out for him. Not saying that Jason will be as good as Chan but he alreday has better skating skills then most of the top Senior men.
    He is clearly struggling with 3a so learning a quad would be a good idea if 3a is never going to be a strong/consistent jump for him, which judging from the smallness of his 2a I can see being a distinct possibility. That is what Lambiel did and what Rippon seems to be trying to do now, though I will say he's consistency with 3a has gotten better, but he still majorly stalks the jump and it's always a small, tight jump with little flowout.

    The Chan comparison isn't valid because at the same age Jason is now, Chan had a 3a that was very strong when he landed it, he just didn't have great consistency on the jump. That is very different from not having attempted it once in competition like Brown. Chan won World silver at 18 don't forget. He certainly had a 3a and was attempting it in both his SP and FS at 17 and was racking up +GOE for it when he landed them, even if his success rate wasn't great.

    Farris OTOH has all the goods he needs to do well in seniors, he just needs more consistency and confidence, but already he has come leaps and bounds since last season. Of course he could turn out to be like Verner or Mirai or something and just never be very consistent despite having all the tools, but he doesn't really have any weaknesses, and IMO he is just as strong as Brown artistically, they just have different styles. Josh is very flexible and quite the strong spinner, and you can see in his SP this season that he is really an expressive skater with a graceful, lyrical style. Jason's style is more flashy and attention grabbing sure, but that doesn't really get him more points (the PCS the two receive internationally is very similar), so he doesn't really have any advantage over Josh (except consistency, but his programs are also easier), and has the major disadvantage of having no 3a or 4t. The Brown hype reminds me of the Rippon hype when Rippon won JW with no 3a. I like the styles of both Brown and Farris, but I have a hard time accepting Brown as the next big thing when he's lacking a 3a and writing off Farris as a forgettable run of the mill skater when, at barely 17, he has a consistent 3a with good technique, has started trying 4t in competition , is received well internationally, and has a host of other good qualities...

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    Remember though Adam was a bit older then Jason when Adam won his Jr World championships.

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