Gracie will CRUSH the Russians in WJC!

[rfisher]

Fortunately, all the speculation will be moot in a couple of weeks when they can skate before the same panel of judges on the same ice. That's what will count.

[Judge Dred]

The only flaw in your reasoning that there is only a slight difference is that Gracie's JGP score is 172.69 and her Nationals winning score is only 6 points higher at 178.92. where as Julia went from 179.73 at the JGPF all the way to 191.92 at nationals that seems a bit extreme!

If you watch the programs, you will work out why. The main reason is that Gracie's skated much less well at nationals compared to the grand prix. If she had skated as she did at nationals at the grand prix, her score would have been in the mid 160's. The grand prix may have been a one off in which everything went right for her. The consistency problem will always be her main obstacle and that was the problem she came up against again at nationals (which was what happened last season). Big jumps = lack of consistency. Same thing happened to Harding, Bonaly, and most of the other big jumpers. Problem is that that is her main asset at the moment. Its not as if she can scale back for consistency and make up for it with artistry/PCS (like Kostner) as she is not that developed yet in the artistry/PCS department. Unlike the other juniors therefore, all she can do is go for the big jumps and hope for the best

[olympic]

Fortunately, all the speculation will be moot in a couple of weeks when they can skate before the same panel of judges on the same ice. That's what will count.

But, it's fun to speculate

Anyway, who are your picks to medal? Let us know, so we can all anticipate who will bomb

[rfisher]

But, it's fun to speculate

Anyway, who are your picks to medal? Let us know, so we can all anticipate who will bomb

Just for that: Gold for Gold mwhahahahahahaha.

I like all 3 of the young Russian skaters equally.

[kwanatic]

I'd love to see Adelina pull it together and skate well. She had a flawed but solid debut on the GP (3rd in both of her assignments) before winning nationals and then bombing at the YOG but finishing 2nd. It's been a good year for her medal-wise, but last year she was undefeated so it's a bit off of her standard. Her confidence seems to have taken a hit but I really hope she gets it back. She is my favorite of the Russian ladies: gorgeous lines and presentation, extension, attitude, huge jumps and that certain spark. I'm dying to see her get some better choreography though (her SP is very nice but her LP leaves a lot to be desired).

If she nails her jumps, she's pretty much unbeatable. Liza has better lutz technique but Adelina's jumps are much bigger, her spins are better, her ice coverage is better and she leaves a better overall impression on the ice. Julia's difficulty isn't as high nor are her skating skills...but in another year or two, she'd be the main challenger for Adelina (though I hope Julia ditches the Morosov choreography and finds someone else).

Just like last year, this year's jr worlds will be more entertaining than senior worlds IMO. The talent is so deep on the junior level: the Russian Triumvirate (Adelina, Liza, Julia), Zijun Li of China is wonderful (great speed, tight jumps with good ice coverage, the best spins in the field behind Julia, and a lovely lyrical style to her skating); then we have the famed Gracie Gold as well.

The competition is going to be fierce. I have no idea who will medal but I'd like to see Adelina and Zijun on the podium...no telling how it will shake out though.

[olympic]

Is there a consensus that the medal threats (in no particular order) will be - Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Gold and Li?

Any Japanese ladies a threat?

[DORISPULASKI]

I really don't keep track of the Jr Ladies, but is there really no serious Japanese contender for the podium

That hasn't happened for a while?

[love_skate2011]

I really don't keep track of the Jr Ladies, but is there really no serious Japanese contender for the podium

That hasn't happened for a while?

they have 2 girls for junior worlds I think
they have Satoko Miyahara but other than that not that much contenders
Risa Shoji has been going downhill every season she placed 6th at YOG behind
the Korean skater girl Kim Hyun.

[DORISPULASKI]

That is a sad thing :

[Sylvia]

Japan's 3 JW ladies' entries are posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry as follows: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=81745
Miu Sato (S5/J6), Satoko Miyahara (S6/J1), Risa Shoji (S7/J3/JGPF-6/YOG-6)

[kwanatic]

I don't think any of the Japanese women will challenge this year, but I say give Miyahara a couple of years...her SS are fabulous but she's so freakin' tiny, people don't really notice. She's like 12 or 13 right now. Hopefully she'll survive her growth spurt because I really think she could be something special.

[burntBREAD]

My favorite of those three is actually Sato. Hope she does well! She's very inconsistent however.

[euterpe]

If you watch the programs, you will work out why. The main reason is that Gracie's skated much less well at nationals compared to the grand prix. If she had skated as she did at nationals at the grand prix, her score would have been in the mid 160's. The grand prix may have been a one off in which everything went right for her. The consistency problem will always be her main obstacle and that was the problem she came up against again at nationals (which was what happened last season). Big jumps = lack of consistency.

No. Look at the protocols.

At JGP Estonia, Gracie skated a clean program except for popping the 3Lo:
3z+3t, 2a+3t, 1lo, 3f, 3z, 2a+2t, 3s.
At Nationals, Gracie's one mistake was a fall on the 2a:
3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 3f, 3z, 2a(fall), 3s+2t
Gracie added the 2t she normally adds to the second 2a, to the 3s.

So Gracie got less points for the 1lo (+0.5) at the JGP than she did for the 2a with a fall at Nationals, even with the -1 deduction for the fall (+1.13 overall).
Also, Gracie was credited with three L4 spins and L4 fw at Nationals, but only two L4 spins and an L2 spin and L3 fw at the JGP.

So Gracie did better at Nationals than at the JGP.

And I don't see any lack of consistency in these two performances. Both were very good.

[Ziggy]

she can do 3-3-3

She can't. She is working on it. Two different things.

She is beautiful, elegant.

No she isn't. A lot of work is needed on her posture, extensions and overall polish.

She has it all!

She doesn't. A lot of work on the PCS is needed and her current programs aren't very well choreographed.

I really think she'll be great one day

Hopefully she'll survive puberty with jumps intact and will address the PCS issues raised above.

[euterpe]

Hopefully she'll survive puberty with jumps intact and will address the PCS issues raised above.

She already did. Gracie is 16, not 14 like the Russian ladies. Gracie's major growth spurt last year affected her jumps, but she's got them all back.

[Ziggy]

She already did. Gracie is 16, not 14 like the Russian ladies. Gracie's major growth spurt last year affected her jumps, but she's got them all back.

She could theoretically still grow but I guess she probably won't any more.

Well, that's very good to know because her jumps are incredible.

[Judge Dred]

At JGP Estonia, Gracie skated a clean program except for popping the 3Lo:

Well well, I had completely forgotten about the fact that she popped the 3R at JGP Estonia. It must have got lost in all the hype. Just reinforces my point about her inconsistency even further as it means that she still hasn't put together a clean LP in a major competition this season. I'm sorry, but the hype is so misplaced.

Lets wait and see what happens. If she starts putting together some clean programs with better artistry and starts winning some major international competitions, fair enough. But to start saying that she will CRUSH (i.e. the title of this thread) the competition based upon what she has done to date (with programs that were not even clean and which highlight a lack of consistency - having to go for big jumps to make an impact as they are her only weapon, and not surprisingly failing on some of them as most of those who rely purely on jumping ability find) is well over the top.

[euterpe]

If Gold is labeled inconsistent because of one mistake in each of her two recent FSs, then I guess the Russian ladies are horribly inconsistent as well:

Sotnikova fell on 3z attempts in the SP at both Cup of China and Cup of Russia. She also popped a lutz in the FS at Cup of China and and a 3f attempt in the FS at Cup of Russia. At the Youth Olympic games FS, she URd the 3lo in her 3z+3lo combo and popped the flip and the loop. She also has a major flutz.

Tuktamisheva doubled a loop and stepped out of the 2a in the SP at the GPF. In the FS she double-footed the 3t in her 2a+3t. At the Youth Olympic Games FS, she fell on the 3f and popped the axel in her 2a+3t combo.

I never said anything about Gold "crushing" anyone. The poster who started this thread said that. But Gold's faults are being magnified beyond all recognition while the Russian ladies are held up as models of consistency and impossible to beat.

[Ziggy]

Well well, I had completely forgotten about the fact that she popped the 3R at JGP Estonia. It must have got lost in all the hype. Just reinforces my point about her inconsistency even further as it means that she still hasn't put together a clean LP in a major competition this season. I'm sorry, but the hype is so misplaced.

Yeah, missing one jumping pass out of seven = inconsistency. Right.

[Sylvia]

I think if you polled the people who have posted in this thread, an overwhelming majority of them would likely disagree with the (trollish) title of this thread.