Gracie will CRUSH the Russians in WJC!

[Macassar88]

Right now, Gracie and the 3 Russians are probably the medal threats at JW's. She is the only Junior lady that can keep up with them.

Gracie might have a slight edge on Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya on TES, but their gap over her in PCS will probably be the winning factor

I think that Zijun Li could sneak onto the podium.

[pinky166]

Has Gao ever gone clean in a competition?

She skated a clean FS at the 2009 JGPF to pull up from 5th to 3rd and she also had a clean FS at the 2010 JGP Austria where she scored 109.XX (though she didn't do 3f-3t in that program).

[Vash01]

Did I understand correctly that Liza won't go to Junior worlds because she is too tired? In that case I guess it would be Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya and a third Russian lady (Shelepen may be?) at the Jr. worlds. The first two have a chance to win a medal, but hard to say if it will be a gold. Isn't Sotnikova also tired from competing throughout this season? I believe she competed in as many events as Liza.

[Domshabfan]

Did I understand correctly that Liza won't go to Junior worlds because she is too tired? In that case I guess it would be Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya and a third Russian lady (Shelepen may be?) at the Jr. worlds. The first two have a chance to win a medal, but hard to say if it will be a gold. Isn't Sotnikova also tired from competing throughout this season? I believe she competed in as many events as Liza.

Liza competed more events internationally and Started of with Japan Open, Skate Canada, TEB (France), GPF (Canada) and Youth Olympics (Austria), domestically Russian Nationals. Adelina did cup of china, Cup of russia, Zagreb (golden spin), Youth olympics, nationals may be a cup of russia. Unlike Liza, adelina's most evens where in europe so lot less travelling.

I agree with Macassar88 that Zijin Li can clearly challenge the russians for the medal.

[Mayra]

Why so bitchy?

Umm...I wasn't being serious. :

[Karpenko]

Something tells me that very, VERY soon we are all going to be reminiscing over the not-so-bad-afterall Kwan vs Slutskaya rivalry. Hopefully none of them take the bait reporters will be throwing at them..

[PashaFan]

Umm...I wasn't being serious. :

You never know on these pages !

[Macassar88]

I agree with Macassar88 that Zijin Li can clearly challenge the russians for the medal.

She's been skating pretty consistently, and she has a good 3f 3t as well as a 2a 3t
so if she can get her choreography and transitions up, she could definitely be a factor in the future. Also, she almost beat Sotnikova at YOG, and she probably would have had she done the 3F 3t instead of a 3f 2t

[kwanatic]

Thread titles like this are a turn off for me. It's natural to be excited about a talented skater, but for the last several months Gracie has been put on such a pedestal that it's creating negative vibes. The girl has talent, no doubt, but she has not won anything on the senior circuit, and she has already been compared with Midori Ito, Tonya Harding, and supposed to 'crush' the Russians? On what basis? Just because she can jump? She appears coltish, when it comes to presentation, like other girls of her age. We don't know if she can handle pressure. I also feel it's a bit unfair to other talented young ladies who are being totally ignored. I had no idea how good Angela Wang is until I saw her at the most recent US nationals.

This is not limited to US ladies though. Since last year I have been hearing that Adelina or Liza would win the OGM in 2014. They have won more than Gracie at this point, but they too have a long way to go before becoming OGM contenders. A little moderation in assessing the young skaters may be a good thing to do.

ITA. I'm getting a little sick of the Gracie-hype already. The girl is talented; no doubt. But she will be one of the most inexperienced skaters at jr. worlds this year. Both Adelina and Liza are defending Jr. world medalists and Julia is the JGPF champ...all of them have more international experience than Gracie. I think Gracie's big jumps make her a contender (obviously) and her speed is nice but not remarkable given her competition. The point is she is completely untested when it comes to big-time international pressure. I'm proud of her for pulling off the win at jr nationals, but it's not like she was facing any kind of challenge there. No one was on her level. She could have had multiple mistakes and still won. Gracie's never faced off against anyone who was on her level. That's a different kind of pressure. It's probably easier to skate when you know you have room for an error or two, but how will she hold up under the pressure of knowing one mistake could knock her off the podium? It's a completely different situation and next year, if she jumps to seniors, that will be an entirely different situation yet again...she's got a lot left to prove to live up to the hype people are constantly pouring on her.

I hope she does well, mainly b/c I can't imagine how badly she'll be torn apart if she doesn't. If everyone skates their best, I say she'd end up 4th. If Adelina's clean, she wins. Her speed is awesome, her jumps are explosive and ginormous, her presentation is wonderful and her spins and other elements are better than last year. Liza's got a solid 3-3 and lots of performance ability which will score her high, plus she's got rep points b/c of her performance on the GP this year. Julia has had a magnificent year. Her jump content isn't as difficult but she can make up a lot of points in spins and presentation.

Gracie will need to be clean and will probably need others to make mistakes in order to win. She can go toe-to-toe with them in terms of jumps, but her presentation isn't as strong as the others and her spins are pretty mediocre. She has a good shot at medaling, but she'll need to be on her "A" game if the Russians are on theirs.

[Judge Dred]

They have just had Russian Junior Nationals. Had Russian and American junior nationals been one competition, then Gracie would not have even made the podium as these were the scores:-

1. Julia Lipnitskaya - 191.92
2. Polina Shelepen - 182.54
3. Elena Radionova - 178.94
4. Gracie Gold - 178.92

Notice that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Korobeynikova did not even compete at Russian juniors. Had they done, then Gold would probably have ended finishing 7th.

As I understand it, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya will all be going to junior worlds. Hence, can't see Gold coming away with a medal.

[euterpe]

They have just had Russian Junior Nationals. Had Russian and American junior nationals been one competition, then Gracie would not have even made the podium as these were the scores:-

1. Julia Lipnitskaya - 191.92
2. Polina Shelepen - 182.54
3. Elena Radionova - 178.94
4. Gracie Gold - 178.92

Notice that Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Korobeynikova did not even compete at Russian juniors. Had they done, then Gold would probably have ended finishing 7th.

As I understand it, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya will all be going to junior worlds. Hence, can't see Gold coming away with a medal.

Those are all inflated Nationals scores. If you use ISU Seasons Best scores, Gold doesn't drop off the medals:

183.05 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011
182.89 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee E. Bompard 2011
172.69 Gracie GOLD USA ISU JGP Tallinn Cup 2011
169.75 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2011

And those are all Seasons BEST scores (except for Gold, who won the only JGP she entered). Here are some others:

172.51 LIPNITSKAYA, JGP Poland
159.95 SOTNIKOVA, Cup of China
157.61 SHELEPEN, JGP Roumania
153.40 SHELEPEN, JGP Latvia
149.87 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Roumania
139.62 KOROBEYNIKOVA, JGP Australia

The Russian girls are human beings just like anyone else.

[Sylvia]

A few more junior international scores from this season...

Top 4 ladies at JGP Final in December 2011:
1 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS 179.73 1 1
2 Polina SHELEPEN RUS 162.34 2 2
3 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS 151.18 5 3
4 Zijun LI CHN 146.53 6 4

Top 3 ladies at Youth Olympic Games (January 2012):
1 TUKTAMISHEVA Elizaveta RUS 173.10 1 1
2 SOTNIKOVA Adelina RUS 159.08 2 3
3 LI Zijun CHN 157.70 3 2

Did I understand correctly that Liza won't go to Junior worlds because she is too tired?

Russia named their Junior World team ladies as of February 8: Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva, and Julia Lipnitskaia. I assume Polina Shelepen is the first alternate and will be ready to go, if needed.

[Judge Dred]

Those are all inflated Nationals scores

They may not be ISU scores, but the fact of the matter is they are their most recent competitions, they are their home nationals, and they are therefore comparable. Gracie would therefore not have medalled. Looking at Gracie's LP from nationals, it certainly would not have won her medal at Russian juniors. The fact that she has a lower score only goes to support that.

[love_skate2011]

the russian national scoring system is different and don't they have sort of bonus. If Gracie competed there she would have finished second if she skated clean above the 183. mark ahead of Shelepen.

[Sylvia]

Well I for one am looking forward to see these all talented young ladies compete in the same competition in Minsk later this month! Let's hope it will be as exciting as we fans are anticipating!

ETA: I don't believe the Russian nationals scoring system gives out bonus points for certain technical elements (such as triple-triples by the ladies) any more.

[UDelpairs2012]

Both Liza and Adelina essentially bombed in the long at the Youth Olympics. Wich is a testament to how good Liza is compared to Jr girls...she bombed and still won!

[Judge Dred]

the russian national scoring system is different and don't they have sort of bonus. If Gracie competed there she would have finished second if she skated clean above the 183. mark ahead of Shelepen.

As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

[love_skate2011]

As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

Gracie was not clean on her LP at Nationals but if you compare I know all nationals inflate their scores but if she skated clean in the US scoring she would have reached above the 180 mark and if you compare that in russian results she may have finished 2nd or maybe 3rd.

[Badams]

I (example, John Kennedy would never have been elected with the name Mortimer Snerd)

That was the name of my very first cat. Mortimer Snerd.

[UDelpairs2012]

As far as I know, they are no different. Precisely in what way are they different and what bonus are you referring to? Each countries nationals are the same and the only difference between them and ISU comp's is that the scoring tends to be a little higher.

Gracie was not clean at nationals and that is her problem. Like all those who rely upon big jumping, she is prone to making mistakes. The price they pay for attempting such big jumps is lack of consistency. She reminds me Tonya Harding and the longer Harding kept on competing, the more inconsistent she became. To say that if she skated clean is therefore big if!

The only flaw in your reasoning that there is only a slight difference is that Gracie's JGP score is 172.69 and her Nationals winning score is only 6 points higher at 178.92. where as Julia went from 179.73 at the JGPF all the way to 191.92 at nationals that seems a bit extreme!