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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I dont think he has to be clean to be guaranteed to win either. He has a good mistake margin over the field unless someone improves by a huge margin. That would also have to be a younger skater, it is unrealistic for Plushenko at his age to reach a level anywhere close to Chan right now IMO, and I say that as a Plushenko fan who doesnt even like Chan. I was thrilled to see him skate so well at Europeans, a much higher level than Vancouver. If the field stays as is presently is, he could be a contender for a medal (not gold) in Sochi.

    I should point out IMO the judges are willing to "hold up" Chan in the case he makes mistakes, even alot of them. I am factoring that into my overall analysis, not that I think he deserves as big a margin as he has.
    Chan can win even with 5-6 falls (SP & LP combined). No way he has to skate even close to clean to win. That alone takes Plushenko and everyone else out. There is no way Plushenko can be competitive 2 years from now. He has already undergone numerous surgeries. It will be minor miracle if he wins even a bronze. However, I am thrilled that he still wants to compete and I was amazed by how well he skated at the Europeans.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    Chan can win even with 5-6 falls (SP & LP combined). No way he has to skate even close to clean to win. That alone takes Plushenko and everyone else out. There is no way Plushenko can be competitive 2 years from now. He has already undergone numerous surgeries. It will be minor miracle if he wins even a bronze. However, I am thrilled that he still wants to compete and I was amazed by how well he skated at the Europeans.
    How many times have we said this about Plushenko, he is too old to compete, he is injured, yet he medals at most competition. Before the Europeans, most people at FSU thought Fernandez will win, yet Plushenko won the europeans by a considerable margin. So I think i will never write of Plushenko, ever again. If he says he will compete, i will expect he to do well, Europeans result was added bonus. He only did one quad and score very high. I think he can potentially score a lot higher.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    Chan can win even with 5-6 falls (SP & LP combined). No way he has to skate even close to clean to win.
    Very true. I just hope he skates atleast 90% as well as he did at Canadians and Worlds last year each time out, and avoids any potential controversies about his certain victories.

  4. #24
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    I am so tired of the Chan can fall five times or 2 in SP 3 in LP and still win comments.

    For the sake of the argument, Chan falls twice in SP and three times in LP while Takahashi skates clean like he did in Japanese Nationals (iirc). What do you think the TES and PCS for Chan and Takahashi will have be?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasperBoy View Post
    As a side note. Although the Duchesnays skated for France they were actually Canadians.
    They were also french. They have always had double citizenship, their mother is french and Paul was born in France.

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by walei View Post
    I am so tired of the Chan can fall five times or 2 in SP 3 in LP and still win comments.

    For the sake of the argument, Chan falls twice in SP and three times in LP while Takahashi skates clean like he did in Japanese Nationals (iirc). What do you think the TES and PCS for Chan and Takahashi will have be?
    Those comments will continue as long as he is given higher marks for flawed performances over other top skaters who skated better.

    My comment was with regard to Plushenko having a chance to win the OGM in Sochi and he does not, IMO, partly because he will be much older and even if he did skate well, the gold will go to Chan, regardless of how he skates. I think he will skate well, because he seems to improve toward the end of the season.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulee View Post

    Pairs
    1908 - Johnson/ Johnson (GBR) (2nd)
    1908 - Syers/ Syers (GBR) (3rd)
    1924 - Joly/ Brunet (FRA) (3rd)
    1932 - Loughran/ Badger (USA) (2nd)
    1936 - Herber/ Baier (GER) (1st)
    1960 - Ludington/ Ludington (USA) (3rd)
    *** interesting to note that if a Russian pair medals at next Olympics, would be the first time in over 50 years that a host team does so.
    This is an interesting observation:

    close-ish calls in recent memory would have been:

    Jessica Dube/Bryce Davison - 6th (2010)
    Kyoko Ina/John Zimmerman - 5th (2002)
    Denise Benning/Lyndon Johnston - 6th (1988)
    Kitty Carruthers/PeterCarruthers - 5th (1980)

  8. #28
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    If Russia only wins one gold in Sochi, I hope it's ladies. The only one they don't have, and to do it on home ice would be pretty awesome.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    Those comments will continue as long as he is given higher marks for flawed performances over other top skaters who skated better.
    Those comments are getting unreasonable, 5 falls and Chan would still win in a competition over a clean performance with the caliber of Takahashi? Really?

    Also, please give example of when a mistake ridden Chan unfairly won over a top skater that skated better in the same competition. Please include the marks (TES + PCS) Chan should have gotten and the competitor's mark (TES + PCS) that he should have get to win over Chan.

  10. #30
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    Wow- I am shocked it is so rare to win on home ice. Had never thought about it before. Makes me more excited for Tessa and Scott, and more upset for Michelle Kwan's 2002 disappointment.

    PS- I am sure this comment will tick off plenty of people, and I am ok with it.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by walei View Post
    Those comments are getting unreasonable, 5 falls and Chan would still win in a competition over a clean performance with the caliber of Takahashi? Really?
    The Grand Prix final shows Chan can make many more mistakes than Takahashi and beat him one program. Then add the fact there are 2 programs, and yes it quite believable what you just said would transpire. Even if that isnt the case, a clean Takahashi would score much higher than any of the other current men , so it certainly applies to everyone else with that probably being a conservative estimate, and since Takahashi almost never skates cleanly, it is safe to see Chan has atleast a 5 fall margin worth of error over both programs.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    The Grand Prix final shows Chan can make many more mistakes than Takahashi and beat him one program. Then add the fact there are 2 programs, and yes it quite believable what you just said would transpire. Even if that isnt the case, a clean Takahashi would score much higher than any of the other current men , so it certainly applies to everyone else with that probably being a conservative estimate, and since Takahashi almost never skates cleanly, it is safe to see Chan has atleast a 5 fall margin worth of error over both programs.
    Chan can fall five times total and still win provided others splat too, which was what happened to him and Taka in GPF. That is not what a "five falls margin" really means though.

  13. #33
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    EXACTLY. I mean, Chan fell twice and beat Fernandez who fell once by three points at Skate Canada. Chan falls three times, or has his second fall on an actual element - he loses.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by walei View Post
    Chan can fall five times total and still win provided others splat too, which was what happened to him and Taka in GPF. That is not what a "five falls margin" really means though.
    Chan had far more mistakes in the long program then Takahashi did and still won the LP phase. Combine that over two programs and that margin virtually doubles and is now enormous. Add to that Takahashi is certain to never skate clean, and none of the current men are at Takahashi's level (both in ability and popularity with judges) and Chan easily has a 5 fall margin.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Chan had far more mistakes in the long program then Takahashi did and still won the LP phase. Combine that over two programs and that margin virtually doubles and is now enormous. Add to that Takahashi is certain to never skate clean, and none of the current men are at Takahashi's level (both in ability and popularity with judges) and Chan easily has a 5 fall margin.
    Chan won because of his TES base mark was mad high and he was able to rotate all the points grabbing jumps. But whether Chan's "margin" is due to unfair judging or Chan's is just so much better is not the discussion here I suppose.

    Again, Chan wins even if he falls five times will only happen if his competitors splats multiple times also. I still don't think that's what a "five falls margin" means.

    Back on topic, I am also very surprised that the home team only generates a few Gold medalists! What does that mean for the "home field advantage" at the Olympics?

  16. #36
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    Poor Russia! The olys finally come to them and they most probably won't win either pairs or dance, or men either. If only Sochi had been in 06.

    I wonder how this list compares to those who bombed at home: bonaly, kostner, Eldridge, etc...

  17. #37
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    Russia probably wont win pairs? That is news to me.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Russia probably wont win pairs? That is news to me.
    Sorry, pairs have become so dreadfully dull in recent years ive stopped paying attention, but I thought it was understood that s&s had a "5 fall advantage" for gold So which Frankenstein russian pair is favored for gold then, the guy who keeps slamming that poor Japanese girl into the ice over and over again, or the one that's made up of two halves of last olys #2 and 3 pairs ripped apart and sewn back together?

  19. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulee View Post
    This thread got me investigating who has won a medal when Olympics are in their home country. According to Skatabase, here is the list:

    Pairs
    1908 - Johnson/ Johnson (GBR) (2nd)
    1908 - Syers/ Syers (GBR) (3rd)
    1924 - Joly/ Brunet (FRA) (3rd)
    1932 - Loughran/ Badger (USA) (2nd)
    1936 - Herber/ Baier (GER) (1st)
    1960 - Ludington/ Ludington (USA) (3rd)
    *** interesting to note that if a Russian pair medals at next Olympics, would be the first time in over 50 years that a host team does so.

    Ice Dance
    1988 - Wilson/McCall (CAN) (3rd)
    1992 - Duchesnay/ Duchesnay (FRA) (2nd)
    2010 - Virtue/ Moir (CAN) (1st)
    Haha, the reason no host nation has an olympics gold in pairs is mostly thanks to Russians/Soviets it self. First Winter Olympics soviets competed was at 1960, and from 1964 onwards they started dominating the pairs, russians continued the tradition until it was broken by Shen/Zhao broke the streak at 2010 games. It is worth laughing that some people using their on success to argue that russians won't win pairs gold medal.

    Same is true with ice dancing they dominated the field with only losing gold medal 3 times when they competed. Whether they will win gold medal at Sochi is anybodies guess. However it is interesting that their own success is causing people to that russians won't succeed at sochi 2014.

  20. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by berthesghost View Post
    Sorry, pairs have become so dreadfully dull in recent years ive stopped paying attention, but I thought it was understood that s&s had a "5 fall advantage" for gold So which Frankenstein russian pair is favored for gold then, the guy who keeps slamming that poor Japanese girl into the ice over and over again, or the one that's made up of two halves of last olys #2 and 3 pairs ripped apart and sewn back together?
    Somebody is still living in Jurassic age. I believe you should watch some pairs event from GP finals and world championships before you comment. Yuko and Sasha are not even Russian No.1, it is Volosozhar and Trankov. V/T came in very close second at the GP finals and World championships. I don't think S/S have a 5 fall advantage over K/S, they lost to the K/S at NHK trophy. S/S also lost to Mervin and Tran.

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