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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I think the men and ladies are totally in the hands of the U.S skaters though in that if all 4 do what they are capable of, I cant imagine them not getting 3 spots back. If only 1 of 2 in each do, then it is dicey.
    It will be tough to get 3 spots in pairs, given the quality of the competition.

    Ice dance and men have a very good chance of getting 3 spots, barring a meltdown or an injury.

    If Ashley and Alissa can skate the way they are capable of, we could have a US lady on the podium and the other with a top 10 finish. It may still be borderline, but the ladies could get 3 spots for next year.

  2. #22
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    1. Dance - barring withdrawl of D/W or the Shibs.

    2. Men - though I don't agree that it's merely in the hands of the American men - this field is deep and broad.

    3. Ladies - Weaker field, but weaker contenders.

    4. Pairs - no.

  3. #23

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    I think the US will get three spots in Mens and Ladies.

    In Ladies, the unknowns Korpi, Elena G and Vika Helgensson.

    The medal contenders are Kostner, Asada, Suzuki, Leonova, Czizny and Elene G.

    I think both Alissa and Ashley can score higher than Makarova(which I hate to say this, cuz I really like this girl), Korpi,

    I think Alissa needs to rest her body and recover
    Are the judges going to reward Korpi for 2lutz programs; or are we going to see a SP like a Euros?

    Elena G is starting to come on strong. I think Elena G has a fabulous shot at the podium against Akiko.

    I think Alissa will definitely regroup and will finish 2nd to 6th. I think Ashley can possibly get a bronze(a strong outside chance) by should finish between 5th and 7th.
    "“My bronze feels like gold,” said the bronze medalist Carolina Kostner

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    It will be tough to get 3 spots in pairs, given the quality of the competition.

    Ice dance and men have a very good chance of getting 3 spots, barring a meltdown or an injury.

    If Ashley and Alissa can skate the way they are capable of, we could have a US lady on the podium and the other with a top 10 finish. It may still be borderline, but the ladies could get 3 spots for next year.
    The pairs are definitely not strong enough to regain 3 spots IMO. Voloszhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy, Kavaguti & Smirnov, both Chinese pairs (whichever 2 end up going), Duhamel & Radford, Barazova & Larionov, and Takahashi Tran, should all finish above both U.S teams. If one was being generous that would leave a probable placing of 9th and 10th, a total of 19, far away from 13. They would need between them 6 placings by either above teams I mentioned, in addition to over anyone else I didnt, to get 13. Not a snowballs chance this year atleast, barring some pre event injury withdrawals.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by RD View Post
    .... And there was tibiagate last year. Sometimes one gets the feeling it's just not meant to be.

    "Tibiagate" ......

  6. #26
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    Dance - absolutely three spots

    Men - chances are very good for three

    Ladies - doubtful, but anything can happen

    Pairs - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA

  7. #27

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    Dance - As close to a gimme as it gets (knock on wood!)

    Men - Maybe a 50-60 percent chance. Adam's triple axel still isn't that reliable and his quad is virtually nonexistent, so if he goes for it at Worlds he's liable to cough up a lot of points. And Jeremy is no sure thing either. Love him but even if he's "on" he's rarely mistake-free, and it'll be a dogfight. These two give us our best shot, though, I think.

    Ladies - I give it a 40 percent chance, but hopefully the break from competing will give Alissa a chance to regroup, and hopefully Ashley will gain rep and confidence from 4CCs.

    Pairs - Completely outside their reach, but that's ok. I hope M&B in particular have a really strong showing!!!
    "Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode

  8. #28

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    Dance: 99.9% yes (*knocks on wood*)

    Ladies: 75% yes ...With Ando and Kim out, the field is pretty wide open. Suzuki, Kostner and Asada have to be considered the three medal favorites, but aside from them, no one really stands out. I can see Czisny, Korobeynikova and Wagner rounding out the top 6, with Murakami and Leonova also having good chances.

    Men: 50% yes ...Rippon hasn't broken 220 points internationally yet this season. We'll see how he does at 4CC, but I see him in the 8-12 range at Worlds. That puts an awful lot of pressure on Jeremy to be 5th at worst. Not impossible by any means, but with Chan, Takahashi, Fernandez, Gachinski, Hanyu and Kozuka in the mix, it will be tough.

    Pairs: 0% ... On the "bright" side, I think both D/C and MBMB can be top 10. Here's hoping diva Mary Beth and Rockne and nab a 6-8th place spot!

  9. #29

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    I want to say that the Ladies have a 25 percent chance of getting the spot, but hey, maybe if we set our sights low, the opposite will happen. :p It seems like the last few years we always said, "THIS year is the year!" and someone had a meltdown. So maybe the secret is for us to give up hope, and then the pressure is off and we can have a pleasant surprise!

    One can dream, right?

  10. #30
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    I want to say that the Ladies have a 25 percent chance of getting the spot, but hey, maybe if we set our sights low, the opposite will happen. :p It seems like the last few years we always said, "THIS year is the year!" and someone had a meltdown. So maybe the secret is for us to give up hope, and then the pressure is off and we can have a pleasant surprise!
    Ek-freaking-xactly man!!

    That's why I've basically given up...all but lost hope...I mean, this year is as good a chance we're gonna get with several major players not a factor, but...Czisny has not been skating well and Wagner isn't really competitive with the world's best as of now.

  11. #31
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    Ice dance: almost 100%
    Ladies: 50% chance, Alissa is 5th on the SB list among the senior bound athletes and Wagner is 8th..

    Men's: 30 % Abbott is 6th and Rippon is 12ish major meltdown required
    Pairs: 1 % chance, 8th D/C, 13ish M/rockne... top teams are very strong and it is all but impossible for US teams to break into top 6

  12. #32
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    Ice Dance - duh !

    Men - very likely, there are still a lot of talent waiting to have their moment
    and Abbott maybe peaking again.

    Ladies - this one is a headcase scenario, like the current ladies figure skating in general, unpredictable, but I say. YES. Ashley and Alissa will bring it and both will finish above Top 10.

    Pairs - meh. US Pairs is very weak weaker than Canada even.
    maybe 2018 ?

  13. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by love_skate2011 View Post
    Pairs - meh. US Pairs is very weak weaker than Canada even.
    maybe 2018 ?
    I thought Canada has always been stronger than the US in pairs. They've had a couple of world champions, the Olympic Gold tie etc...Nobody has Russia's record (sorry Canadians but even you have to admit that); but Canada has historically been way more successful than us.

  14. #34
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    i think defintely dance,
    ladies has a good shot for 3 next year,

    men has to work for it.

    pairs only if they are lucky and both skate good short/longs

  15. #35

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    Now that Jerrmy pulled out of 4CCs with a hip injury, I am going to downgrade the likelihood of US men getting three spots from 50-60 percent to about 30-40 percent
    "Marge, if you're going to get mad at me every time I do something stupid, then I guess I'm just going to have to stop doing stupid things!" - Homer Simpson in the Mr. Plow episode

  16. #36

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    I'm confused, so you think Jeremy might still be injured by Worlds but try to skate and will not skate well? I sort of got the feeling that he is "resting" his hip...

    But I guess it's 100% opinion here that US Pairs are just not good enough. Sad.

  17. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheylana View Post
    Now that Jerrmy pulled out of 4CCs with a hip injury, I am going to downgrade the likelihood of US men getting three spots from 50-60 percent to about 30-40 percent
    Me too, although I did not assign any probability to my predictions.

    Ladies actually may have a better chance of finishing top 12 (total) because the ladies field is relatively weak. If Alissa and Ashley have respectable skates (5th & 6th or 7th place finishes), it's all that is needed. Other than Kostner, I don't see a sure podium bet. Asada and Suzuki are both good enough, but no guarantee if Asada's jumps don't work, and Suzuki will need two strong performances. After that, we have a lot of second tier skaters- Leonova, Makarova, Elene G., Korpii, Helgessons (2), Murakami. Both Ashley and Alissa are capable of beating all the second tier skaters.

    The mens field is strong and I was putting all my eggs in the Jeremy basket. Rippon may have found himself, but I don't see him as a medal contender (Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu, Fernandez, Kozuka, nd a healthy Abbott are likely to finish ahead of him; they all have the quad).He could be 5th or 6th. If Jeremy was healthy, it would be easy to get to 12, but with his hip injury things become muddled. What if he cannot go to worlds at all, then Ross Miner would go. I am looking at 8-10 finish for Ross, and that does not bode well.

  18. #38
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    ^Don't doom and gloom the US men and Jeremy yet. It sounds minor and he's withdrawing from 4CC's to be safe

  19. #39
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    Why does everyone think that the men are more likely to get 3 spots back than the ladies?
    Abbott could be top 4 but there is a huge list of people who could beat Rippon: Chan, the 3 Japanese boys, Fernandez, Brezina, Amodio, Song, Verner and maybe Joubert.

    For ladies, we probably need Alissa to medal or get 4th which is possible because she's always overscored.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roxanne View Post
    Why does everyone think that the men are more likely to get 3 spots back than the ladies?
    it's a total crapfest with all 4 of them, but Ashley has the least natural talent, and worst resume. We have to wait and see.

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