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  1. #21

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    I'm not sure if she can medal, but I think top 6 is certainly within her grasp. She's armed with two great programs this season, and I think being the U.S. champion will help boost her confidence even more.

  2. #22

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    I think she can easily make the top ten if she skates well. Top five won't easy for her. She doesn't have the same rep with judges that Alissa has and Mao, Carolina, Kiira, Akiko, even Alena will all go into the WC with a better rep than Ashley. Still, none of those skaters is the model of consistency so if Ashley skates cleanly (gets rid of the two foot landings, rotates all her jumps), then I think she has a good chance of getting into the top five. I don't think all of those skaters will skate well in Nice, which may open the door for Ashley. Still, Ashley has to be able to handle the pressure too.
    "If people are looking for guarantees, they should buy appliances at Sears and stay away from human relationships."~Prancer

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Polymer Bob View Post
    This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

    Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.
    Not for skaters like Carolina or Patrick...

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by BittyBug View Post
    Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."
    She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

    Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.

  5. #25
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    I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

    Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Polymer Bob View Post
    I have mixed feelings about sending Ashley to 4CC. Alissa was U.S. champ in 2009. She went to 4CC and got beat by 2 other Americans. Then she accomplished the exact same feat last year. If Ashley gets beat by one or both U.S. ladies, that could diminish her in the eyes of ISU judges.

    Both of Ashley's team mates have short program triple-triples. Agnes would be deadly if she skates clean, and Caroline has a mysterious ability to do better in ISU events than national events.

    has caroline really scored better at internationals than at home recently? i thought she hasn't been scored well in either places until this year's nationals.

    as for 4CC, i am happy with the ladies team (dance is another story), because if you are the USFS you want to do your best to support a big-jumper like agnes--you want her to have a chance for redemption as early as possible. ok, *i* want her to, because she looked so devastated on tv.

    i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by skfan View Post
    i doubt very much that ashley will finish behind both caroline and agnes at 4CC.
    Maybe not both, but even one could reduce her stature in the eyes of the ISU judges. The flip side of course is that if Ashley does very well, that could raise her stature.

  8. #28
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    I would be surprised if Ashley isnt the top American at 4CCs. She hasnt had a bad skate all year, Agnes hasnt had a good long program all year (heck her only good short was at Nationals), and Caroline is a ways away from beating her at this point still. It is not like the international judges think a whole lot of her thus far anyway. Things can only get better if she does another event and skates well again, espcecialy coming off her U.S title.

  9. #29
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    As Terry Gannon would say, she won't control her own destiny.

    Kostner, the 3 Russians, the 3 Japanese, Gedevanishvili, whichever of Phaneuf or Lacoste goes, Korpi, Czisny, and possibly others all have the potential to score above Wagner with a good skate. They all have equal to (much) better basic skating technique.

    Let's say HALF of the above hit. That still leaves her in seventh place with a clean or close-to-clean skate. If she two-foots like she did at Nationals, much lower.

    Wagner played her cards right at Nationals, but Worlds will require a bigger effort. IMO, she has to try for 3F+3T in the short and 3F+3T and 2A+3T in the free skate if she has any chance of top five. The math won't work any other way.

  10. #30
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    Saw a blip on Ashley interviewed about her win and plans for Worlds. She said she knows she needs a 3/3 for the SP, lose the edge call and the 2 footed landings. She knows. Hopefully, she can improve.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

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  11. #31

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    Can she really lose the double-foots in time? I wonder. You all know how I uber her, but I will admit that that double-foot has dogged her for AGES. I'm glad she's trying to fix it, but it may take more time than she's got before Worlds.
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  12. #32
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    Yes, I too think it's a lot to accomplish in a short time but at least she is headed in the right direction and is aware of the work to be done.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  13. #33
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    Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

    Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

    She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

    Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

    If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    Wagner can be as high as fifth or as low as tenth.

    Barring major disasters, Kostner, Asada, Suzuki and Czisny will beat her.

    She will pretty much have comparable PCS and GOE to Leonova, Korpi, Elene G and Murakami (i.e. low to mid 7s). Between the five of them the placements will really depend on the night.

    Polina K is rather consistent but her PCS is the lowest, being the third Russian. I am not worried about her beating Wagner. Nor do I worry about Makarova or Phanuef (or Lacoste) going clean.

    If Wagner places in the lower half of the top ten, she will need Czisny to medal in order for US to retain that spot - which isn't impossible, but difficult given how Czisny has skated so far this season.

    just to make it clear, i am pro-wagner--i want ashley on the world team because she's the american with the prettiest layback position. but you really think she's got the same PCS potential as korpi? if korpi is clean, korpi is going to get kostner level PCS. even if ashley is clean with 3f-3t in the short. if ashley has the same PCS as leonova, it'll mean polina K has taken over as russia's #1, and i'm guessing with polina's much bigger (when successful) 3f-3t vs ashley's yet-to-be-seen 3f-3t (where i'll be praying for a tech specialist not to detect a two-footed landing or UR), polina could get better PCS than ashley too.

    i only see murakami and elene G in the ashley ballpark for PCS. i want to be optimistic, really, but i'm not seeing it.

  15. #35
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    Korpi, Elene G and Leonova all beat Wagner on PCS at NHK Trophy 3 months ago. However, the scoring was pretty close.

    If Wagner could medal at 4CCs and deliver a strong performance, her PCS can definitely catch up.

  16. #36

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    Wagner's PCS scores are lower than Leonova, Korpi and Gedevanishvili. The only skater she outranked consistently in PCS this season is Murakami.

    61.82 7.64 7.50 7.79 7.75 7.96 LEONOVA Worlds 2011
    61.13 7.68 7.46 7.64 7.64 7.79 CZISNY Worlds 2011
    60.08 7.54 7.25 7.54 7.61 7.61 MAKAROVA Worlds 2011
    60.01 7.46 7.18 7.61 7.57 7.68 LEONOVA CoR
    59.94 7.61 7.32 7.50 7.46 7.57 ASADA Worlds 2011
    58.86 7.32 7.07 7.43 7.43 7.54 KORPI Euros
    58.62 7.39 7.11 7.32 7.39 7.43 KORPI CoR
    58.42 7.54 6.86 7.43 7.32 7.36 LEONOVA NHK
    58.06 7.32 6.93 7.29 7.32 7.43 KORPI Worlds 2011
    57.61 7.32 6.86 7.36 7.21 7.25 GEDEVANISHVILI Euros
    57.60 7.14 7.00 7.11 7.39 7.36 KORPI NHK
    56.62 7.14 6.89 7.11 7.04 7.21 MURAKAMI Worlds 2011
    56.33 7.32 6.75 7.07 7.00 7.07 GEDEVANISHVILI NHK
    55.71 7.04 6.57 7.11 6.96 7.14 LEONOVA Euros
    55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18 WAGNER SC
    55.32 7.04 6.61 7.04 7.00 6.89 WAGNER NHK
    54.01 6.96 6.61 6.61 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI CoC
    53.88 7.04 6.25 6.82 6.82 6.75 MURAKAMI TEB
    52.12 6.68 6.21 6.50 6.57 6.61 LEONOVA SC
    50.97 6.64 6.04 6.43 6.29 6.46 GEDEVANISHVILI Worlds 2011
    49.46 6.39 5.96 6.29 6.14 6.14 GEDEVANISHVILI SA
    Last edited by euterpe; 01-30-2012 at 06:39 AM.

  17. #37

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    The "2-foot issue" is so passe. OF COURSE, Ashley can and will score very high at Worlds. Ashley will be the first US lady to make podium at Worlds since 2006.
    Dick Button Historical Quote of the Month: "Good for you, Lucinda Ruh!"

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    She will be buried in PCS and most likely GOEs too. Unless you have won some sort of World / Euro / 4CC / GPF medal, you won't be taken seriously with just a 3/2 in the short. This is as much reputational judging as it is the fact that she just isn't in the same league as Asada, Suzuki or Czisny (or Nagasu) who do 3/2s in the short.

    Plus, her main competition for placement will come from the B list contenders (Russians, Korpi, Murakami etc) and they mostly do 3/3s in the short and have already had some sort of Euro / GPF medal. Wagner will either need to medal or skate really well at 4CCs or do a 3/3 in the short to even level with them.
    I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

    When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
    Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't . She is very beautiful.


    Quote Originally Posted by sequins View Post
    On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.
    I agree. She has the best outfits out there.

  19. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingaG View Post
    I disagree with you. Is Ashley not in the same league as Nagasu?? Im sorry, but Nagasu has very blant programs this season and does not perform well. How is Ashley out of her league? Do Nationals tell you something?

    When it comes to not being in the same league with others - I think it is a stretch (except of Mao and Carolina, maybe). All ladies have strenghts and weaknesses. Ashley has a beautiful layback, she is fast (although her basic are not great), energetic and has interesting programs this season. She also shows great attitude. And 3/3 that other ladies have?? Well, how many of them perform them clean when it really matters?? I sense that she has potential to bring the house down, if she skates clean. Antyhing can happen in ladies skating, nothing is written in the stone.
    Also, if Korpi and Czisny get the 'pretty bonus' I don't see the reason why Ashley shouldn't . She is very beautiful.
    The thing with Ashley is that she is a bit like Tonia Kwiakowski. They're both very good skaters who can easily get into the top ten but they're not extraordinary skaters who can easily make it into top five on their own. Ashley will need help from other more talented skaters to make it into the top five. Nothing about Ashley's skating (besides her attack) really stands out at the moment. Alissa has great spins, Kiira has really nice basics, Leonova has just as much attack as Ashley along with a consistent 3-3, Suzuki also has very good basics, speed and a 3-3. Even Nagasu has more speed, better spins and jumps. Now, if any of these skaters don't skate up to their best, then Wagner can beat them. I think that was the lesson learned from Nationals. Ashley was able to win because she was mostly clean in both segments while Alissa made too many mistakes. I won't even get into Nagasu's skating. I don't think the less was that Wagner is equal or better than either.
    "If people are looking for guarantees, they should buy appliances at Sears and stay away from human relationships."~Prancer

  20. #40
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    She has to skate like this again and hopefully win silver or bronze at 4CC and rep up her reputation score. She needs to score over 115+ at 4CC and go from there.

    At world who knows. Neither Mao, Suzuki or Koster are hardly running away with the grand slam score. And she needs to land all ther 7 triples and clean, and if a few of the other ladies flater, she might be lucky enough for bronze. She def have to make up the 5-7 points PCS disavantage form both SP+LP some how.

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