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  1. #1
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    Can Ashley actually score well at Worlds?

    Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.

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    Which is why it is smart to send her to 4CCs for further exposure, some PCS and ISU points accumulation, and hopefully an ISU championship medal.

    At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

    If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her.
    Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."
    "I miss footwork that has any kind of a discernible pattern. The goal of a step sequence should not be for a skater to show the same ice coverage as a Zamboni and take about as much time as an ice resurface. " ~ Zemgirl, reflecting on a pre-IJS straight line sequence

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    At Worlds, I don't expect her to beat Asada, Suzuki and Kostner. As for the rest, Czisny, the Russians and Korpi have been up and down, so Wagner can certainly contend for a top 5. But she has to be absolutely spot on and bring out the big tricks. A 3flip2toe in the short program will bury her. She is no Asada.

    If all goes well for her, she should expect mid 7s for PCS as maximum.
    Here's what Ashley scored in her bronze-medal winning FS at SC:
    110.98 56.50 55.48 7.04 6.32 7.32 6.82 7.18

    1.8 points wouldn't necessarily bury her, but it could be enough to leave her out of the final group for FS.

    However, Ashley hasn't been trying any 3/3s this season. If she's still double-footing her jumps, I'd be concerned that 3/3 attempts would result in URs, downgrades or even falls. She already is getting dinged for flutzing.
    Last edited by euterpe; 01-30-2012 at 12:19 AM.

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    I think if she puts two clean skates together she could possibly make the top five. I hope that winning the national title will give her the confidence to do that.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

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    International judges dont really like her up to now to be honest. Even her good results ae with mediocre scores and others performing poorly. However up until this year she was frequently underrated by National judges even when she skated fairly well, and that changed this year. Hopefully as U.S Champ she has a whole new street cred and if she can back it up with performance will be rewarded.

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    Ladies at Worlds can be a splatfest. I don't think you can say that anyone who has medaled on the GP is truly out of the top five range. Anything can happen. Crossing my fingers that Ashley and Alissa skate as cleanly as possible, and score well enough to earn three spots.

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    I still believe Alissa can definitely medal if she skates cleanly. Heck she beat a good Kostner at Skate America with falls and majors errors, although that was probably only due it being in the U.S.

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    Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable View Post
    Depends. Can she skate well at Worlds?
    I meant assuming that she skates either her best or really well, will that get her somewhere? Will the judges reward her for skating well?

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    She will if she follows her plan to:

    1. Add a triple/triple to her SP
    2. Not get any edge calls
    3. Land her triples cleanly on one foot.
    4. Not fall

    In the past number 3 has been the biggest challenge. Even at the 2010 Nationals where she pulled up from 12th to third, she landed most of her jumps with her feet still crossed. This year I only noticed that one jump where she scraped her foot checking out.

    As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters. I thought her choreography was a little off in the long. In the middle right where the music swells to it's most dramatic crescendo it appears she takes a rest break.

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    Quote Originally Posted by krenseby View Post
    Do you guys think it's possible for Ashley to get good scores at this year's Worlds? It would be sad if she would skate brilliantly and yet be scored poorly! I don't think she deserves to be treated as damaged goods, as someone unworthy of contending for a top 5 finish.
    Seriously, the excuses and "wuz robbed" claims have stared already, and she hasn't even bought her plane ticket yet.

    I'm off to marinate my hat, as I'll be eating it should Ashley "skates brilliantly" at worlds. sorry, but nothing in her 5 years of pretty consistant skating has shown anything of kind will happen.

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    I think she can. And I think that if she does, she'll get good marks - she's never finished lower than 5th at any GP, which is more than a lot of the ladiezz can say. Nobody's been consistent this year; Asada, Suzuki, and Koster look good for the podium, but a recharged Alissa or Leonova could be a spoiler. As for the other ladies, Korpi, Gedevanishvili, Korobeinykova or even Makarova could keep her out the top five. Or not. she really needs to go out there and hit everything.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

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    i'm rooting for her. I think her spiral is the highlight of her black swan lp. her layback is pretty. i think the ending was anticlimactic though
    Last edited by iarispiralllyof; 01-30-2012 at 03:25 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aliceanne View Post
    As to whether she will medal will depend on how some of the others skate. There are better jumpers and better artistic skaters.
    Better spinners too. Better basic skaters. I like Ashley and was thrilled she won Nationals but she really isnt good enough to control her own destiny vs the Worlds best even if she were more liked by the judges. She isnt one of the very best if they all have their best day. She isnt a Czisny or Nagasu really. Hopefully she can have one of her best days, and capatilize if some of the better skaters dont.

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    I thought Ashley's Black Swan was supposed to be "edgy". Didn't she say that about her LP earlier in the season? I don't find the current program to be memorable at all. And of course Ashley did the dreaded circling-in-one-place-on-the-toepicks move that every Swan Lake program has.

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    Well, she better than Leonova in my book, so if she beats Leonova, I'm going to be perfectly happy.

  18. #18
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    I think that if she takes care of the 2-footing issue and skates clean, I see no reason why she wouldn't make top 5. With some help from the big guns she could medal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BittyBug View Post
    Why? 3T-3T = 8.2 points in base value. 3F-2T = 6.6 points in base value. I hardly think a gap of 1.8 points will "bury her."
    This is an excellent point that we need to understand. The penalty for a fall is one point? Nonsense. If Jeremy had fallen 3 times, would his score be just 3 points lower? No. Well landed jumps have a psychological effect on the judges that we don't fully comprehend. When a skater lands clean, hard jumps, the spirals look prettier, the spins look faster, all other elements just look nicer.

    Trust me, it's not just 1.8 points.

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    I like Ashley, she seems like a a sweetheart and was happy for her this weekend. I think with the women anything can happen. If she skates well I don't see why she wouldn't place well and if she skates well that's really all that matters and I think she'd be happy with that regardless of the judges. On a shallow note I always like her outfits, she'd had some real pretty dresses over the years.

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