2012-13 US assignments speculation

[euterpe]

There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

[barbk]

It doesn't look like that hurt the Shibutanis at all. (Though I tend to think that their results were directly affected by the glaring height disproportion much more than their ice dance skills.)

[mineko]

There's a risk for Aldridge/Eaton remaining Junior internationally next season. All three of the top Russian teams will still be junior-eligible, and if they all stay junior (a real possibility), A/E could wind up like the Shibutanis in their last JGP season: pushed off the JW 2013 podium. Even if the top Russian team goes senior, Russia has a plethora of young talented teams that could unexpectedly "blossom" at JW.

Yes, there's always that kind of risk. On the other hand, Lichtman/Copley, the last year's Jr. US champions and JWC bronze medalists, just like A/E are this year, had a rather unremarkable senior debut season (7th finish at COC GP assignment, and the 10th finish at nationals).

You never know. I guess the only thing A/E can control is to focus on improving their skills regardless of which circuit they skate. They also have a world-class choreographer (Camerlengo) and excellent coaching team headed by Angelica Krylova at their corner.

Go Aldridge/Eaton!!

[Stephanie]

Another factor in the decision is that if they want to stay on the JGP they'd also have to stay juniors for nationals since the SDs are now different, unless they prepare two completely different SDs.

My personal opinion is that if they want any shot at the 2014 Olympics they'll have to skate senior at next year's nationals, which would mean skating senior internationally.

[euterpe]

Do A/E have any real chance at getting a berth to the 2014 Olympics? There are a great many senior teams ahead of them who aren't about to quit before 2014.

2018 would be a more realistic goal for them.

[mineko]

Do A/E have any real chance at getting a berth to the 2014 Olympics? There are a great many senior teams ahead of them who aren't about to quit before 2014.

2018 would be a more realistic goal for them.

ITA.

[Jayar]

Another factor in the decision is that if they want to stay on the JGP they'd also have to stay juniors for nationals since the SDs are now different, unless they prepare two completely different SDs.

My personal opinion is that if they want any shot at the 2014 Olympics they'll have to skate senior at next year's nationals, which would mean skating senior internationally.

They have said that they cbelieve that they could handle doing both.

[pinky166]

If Farris and Brown decided to do GP, would they be able to each get 2 assignments or only 1? I assume this would factor into their decision making, already they are ahead of Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh on the SB list, and Farris is even ahead of Rippon now and likely to stay in the top 24 after Worlds (Brown could also feasibly, but he is closer to the cutoff so there's more of a chance he gets bumped off if some ppl below him currently really deliver at Worlds, off the top of my mind I can think of Joubert, KVDP, Contesti but there might be others i'm forgetting). WS for both is somewhere in the 30s I believe. So my question is, if they stay in the top 24 for SB after Worlds and chose to do GP, are they likely to get 2 assignments or just one? I feel like they should both be able to get 2 but idk what the protocol is and now with the reduced spots and further, is there a chance skaters out of the top 24 for SB (Dornbush, Mroz, Mahbanoozadeh) get 2 assignments or no? Or even if they did, would they be behind Farris and Brown in terms of pecking order because of this?

[Sylvia]

^^^ Who knows? I think only Abbott, Rippon and Miner are looking fairly certain for 2 GP assignments at this point. There are way more deserving U.S. men than GP spots available, again.

Reposting from another thread since it's relevant to this one :

Once again, there will be quite a few U.S. ladies vying for the [15 JGP ladies] spots. I assume initial preference might go to those ladies with a solid 3F, since the flip is the required solo jump in the junior SP next season. Based on that, I think frontrunners for JGP spots would be Angela Wang (Senior 8th), Leah Keiser (Senior 12th), Ashley Cain (Junior 2nd), Hannah Miller (Junior 3rd), Barbie Long (Junior 4th), and Polina Edmunds (Junior 6th). Kiri Baga (Senior 10th) and Mariah Bell (Junior 5th) may also be considered since they have nice 3F's. Not sure about the plans of Vanessa Lam and Yasmin Siraj yet, but they're sure to be in the mix too.

Also in the mix should be Nina Jiang (S11) who has landed 3F before, McKinzie Daniels (S13, who placed ahead of Siraj at Nationals), and Courtney Hicks as long as she has recovered fully from her injury (ditto for Samantha Cesario since she has one more season of ISU Junior age eligibility left).

[barbk]

I'm just hoping that for the JGP spots that the USFSA keeps a closer eye on summer comps. Very nice that ISU junior-age skaters do well at Nationals, but the summer comps ought to influence JGP selection more than they seem to. A lot can change with a junior-level skater in six months, and relying almost solely on last January's results when assignments are made in July, August and September is not especially helpful.

[toddlj]

If Farris and Brown decided to do GP, would they be able to each get 2 assignments or only 1?

Well, unless the rules change from last year, they will be guaranteed one, depending on where they end up in the world standings or seasons best. They are 31/34 on the world standings, but are 16/19 on Seasons Best list... however they may be pushed down by men skating at worlds. If they can hold in the top 24, considering they medaled at Junior worlds, I think they'll get their 2 assignments.

Here are the rules from last year:

b) Skaters/couples with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24, will be guaranteed one (1) event if they do not otherwise meet the
criteria listed in paragraphs 2.1 or 2.2 above and the minimum score.

c) Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the
Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfil the requirements of the minimum score.

ETA: I also think they'll get two assignments especially because they are ahead of all the other US men (except Abbott/Rippon/Miner) on the SB list AND the World Standings.

[Sylvia]

Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:

Farris is ready for Senior GP.

Part of me feels that Jason Brown could stay down and do the JGP again, trying 3A in every program, knowing he could do well even if his 3A is inconsistent in competition at first?

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

[DORISPULASKI]

Has Brown decided to stay Junior or move on?

[Sylvia]

Has Brown decided to stay Junior or move on?

We don't know yet. I was just thinking aloud.

[Mayra]

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

I'd rather see Farris and Brown on the GP. Weir and Lysacek can save their posturing and play "pretend comeback" for an extra 15minutes of fame at Nationals.

[SkateFan66]

Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

Do we know for a fact that Lysacek receive two GP assignments as a "comeback skater." IIRC, based on Lysacek's ISU ranking, he would have been eligible for 1 GP assignment. He was given an assignment to TEB. The USFSA gets to select it's participants at Skate America. Therefore, Lysacek could have received his 2 GP assignments last year (TEB & SA) w/o using the 'comeback skater' rule.

[Sylvia]

Do we know for a fact that Lysacek receive two GP assignments as a "comeback skater."

I don't know for a fact.

From the 2011-12 ISU Grand Prix Announcement document:

c) “Come-Back” Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 at any previous ISU World Figure Skating Championships) and subsequently did not participate in one or more competitive seasons are allowed to re-enter the Grand Prix if they commit to participating in 2 Grand Prix events. A come-back under this clause is allowed only once for any skater. Subsequent to the come-back season, the skater will be considered only by his/her placement on the official lists (seeded or World Standing points, etc.). If the skater is no longer on the list, he/she will not be considered for a Grand Prix event.

In any case, Lysacek will have not an ISU World ranking after his 2009-10 season points are purged at the end of this season (he's ranked #28 now), and so Skate America as a host pick would appear to be his only option if he wants to compete on the Grand Prix. But considering the history of the ISU's fuzzy language in such documents, who knows?

[SkateFan66]

I don't know for a fact.

From the 2011-12 ISU Grand Prix Announcement document:

In any case, Lysacek will have not an ISU World ranking after his 2009-10 season points are purged at the end of this season (he's ranked #28 now), and so Skate America as a host pick would appear to be his only option if he wants to compete on the Grand Prix. But considering the history of the ISU's fuzzy language in such documents, who knows?

Based on my reading of the rule, Lysacek would be eligible for 2 GP assignments. He was World Champion in 2009 & Olymic Champion in 2010. He did not compete for two seasons. Lysacek was assigned 2 GP events last year; however, he did NOT compete. The rule states that "subsequent" to the comeback season, the skater will receive GP assignments based on the official list (seeding/ ranking). Since Lysacek did not compete last year, the provision of the rule applicable to GP assignments after the comeback season do not apply.

[love_skate2011]

realistically, I see the us pairs and ice dance in juniors to stay in JGP
Gold will be moving seniors like Zawadski. A good advantage for the judges to get more familiar with her for 2014

Brown can go to senior GP also as he can medal but Farris will probably stay in JGP , Farris is a bit lower compared to Brown's development , he still needs to catch up with Brown in terms of artistry and finesse and doesn't yet have the all around skating skills.

[Sylvia]

Gee, thanks for continuing to stir the pot with your Brown/Farris comments. (Close your eyes, pinky166! )