2012-13 US assignments speculation

[Sylvia]

haribobo, there were 2 rumored new teams mentioned in the U.S. Ice Dance splits thread and you've mixed up one of them.

Did Flatt earn one because of her overall ISU ranking? I thought her season's best wasn't too high.

Her ISU World Standings ranking will likely drop below top 24 after the 2009-10 points are purged and her 2010-11 points are reduced to 70%. She didn't earn any ranking points this season. She's currently #38 on the SB list.

Where can one see a SB list?

Scroll down to "Season Best Total Scores 2011/2012": http://www.isu.org/vsite/vcontent/pa...m-item,00.html

[SkateFan66]

I thought Plushenko could use his comeback skater status to gain 2 spots? Also he is guaranteed 1, surely the second could be a host pick. Same with Gachinski, Zhang, and Miner.

Since Pluschenko competed in an ISU event last season, I don't think that he could use the comeback skater rule. However, he should be ranked high on the season best list and he will almost definitely get a host pick for COR.

[smarts1]

Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, and Gold definitely would qualify for 2 GPs.

[haribobo]

haribobo, there were 2 rumored new teams mentioned in the U.S. Ice Dance splits thread and you've mixed up one of them.

Fixed, thanks!

[haribobo]

Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, and Gold definitely would qualify for 2 GPs.

Probably but its not a guarantee. It's also worth keeping in mind that of last season's guaranteed skaters, Rochette, Yuna Kim, Ando, Lepisto, and Shelepen did not compete on the senior GP, freeing up spots for other skaters to get second assignments who otherwise only would get one. I don't expect quite so many dropouts from this year's guaranteed skaters.

[b-man]

Probably but its not a guarantee. It's also worth keeping in mind that of last season's guaranteed skaters, Rochette, Yuna Kim, Ando, Lepisto, and Shelepen did not compete on the senior GP, freeing up spots for other skaters to get second assignments who otherwise only would get one. I don't expect quite so many dropouts from this year's guaranteed skaters.

I think last year US ladies got a total of 14 spots. So are you indicating we would likely get less this year? With all the depth, we could actually use more than 14.

[Sylvia]

It doesn't matter how many GP spots the U.S. received last year -- 14 spots for ladies, 14 initially for men (13 after Lysacek's TEB spot was reassigned), 8 for pairs, 11 for dance -- it will depend on which skaters/teams (not just U.S.) are eligible based on the 2012-13 GP selection criteria. At this point in time, it looks like fewer U.S. ladies and men are guaranteed GP selection (based on this season's criteria), but we will have to wait and see.

[pinky166]

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

Yes but the scores at last year's JW for the medalists were very low, about 20 points lower than the scores for the medalists this year, so maybe Majarov was not on the top 24 SB list and that is why he only got 1 assignment? He also didn't go to the JGPF last season, so he was probably gauranteed 1 event just based on his JW bronze. If Farris and Brown move up, they have JGPF medals, JW medals, and scores in the top 24 SB all qualifying them for 1 GP event, meaning the chances are good that each could get a 2nd. Armin might not be getting any GP assignments and the same is true for Mroz b/c they didn't make the top 24 SB list or top 24 WR list, Ricky will likely only get 1 because he's just 23 on the WR list, and doesn't even make the cut for the SB list.

Last year: Abbott, Rippon, Miner, Dornbush, Mahbanoozdeh, and Mroz all got 2 GPs each, and Razzano was given the host pick at NHK.

This season I assume: Abbott, Miner, Farris, Brown, Rippon, will get 2 GPs each. Dornbush will get 1 or 2, Mahbanoozadeh will maybe get 1. Host spot is open and could go to anyone.

[pinky166]

Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, and Gold definitely would qualify for 2 GPs.

Probably, but the only US lady who is gauranteed 2 events is Ashley. The rest weren't at worlds/didn't finish high enough at worlds to gain thee 2 spots. There is a chance all the ladies you mentioned would get just one spot.

[Sylvia]

The ISU World Standings rankings list will be purged of the 2009-10 data/points at the end of this season and the skaters' 2010-11 points will be reduced to 70%. If anyone feels like doing the math now...

ISU Season Best Scores (updated after 2012 Worlds; 2012 US Nationals placement added in [brackets]; officially split teams are italicized):

* = ISU Junior age-eligible in 2012-13

U.S. LADIES
1 192.41 Ashley WAGNER Four Continents Championships 2012 [S1] (WTT coming up)
8 179.15 Alissa CZISNY GP Trophee E. Bompard 2011 [S2]
9 176.18 Caroline ZHANG Four Continents Championships 2012 [S4]
11 173.22 Mirai NAGASU GP Cup of China 2011 [S7]
12 172.69 Gracie GOLD* JGP Tallinn Cup 2011 [J1] (WTT coming up)
25 157.23 Agnes ZAWADZKI* Four Continents Championships 2012 [S3]
26 156.58 Vanessa LAM* JGP Austria 2011 [S9]
28 153.84 Samantha CESARIO* JGP Baltic Cup 2011 [S-wd]
29 152.48 Christina GAO* GP Cup of China 2011 [S5]
30 151.91 Courtney HICKS* JGP Brisbane 2011 [inj.]
38 147.63 Rachael FLATT GP Rostelecom Cup 2011 [S6]
40 146.74 Hannah MILLER* JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011 [J3]
51 139.70 Joelle FORTE GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2011 [S14]
52 139.50 Katarina KULGEYKO* JGP Austria 2011 [J9]
57 135.26 Yasmin SIRAJ* JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [S15]
59 132.95 Ashley CAIN* JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [J2]
73 123.39 Jordan BAUTH* Youth Olympic Games 2012 [J-E5]
74 123.20 Lauren DINH* JGP Baltic Cup 2011 [S-dnq]
101 111.79 McKinzie DANIELS* JGP Brasov Cup 2011 [S13]

U.S. MEN
10 238.82 Jeremy ABBOTT Grand Prix Final 2011/12 [S1] (WTT coming up)
17 223.23 Ross MINER Four Continents Championships 2012 [S3]
19 221.97 Joshua FARRIS* World Junior Championships 2012 [S16]
20 221.55 Adam RIPPON Four Continents Championships 2012 [S2] (WTT coming up)
23 214.90 Jason BROWN* World Junior Championships 2012 [S9]
27 205.27 Richard DORNBUSH GP Cup of China 2011 [S13]
38 192.95 Douglas RAZZANO GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2011 [S5]
41 185.58 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH GP NHK Trophy 2011 [S4]
42 185.49 Brandon MROZ GP Rostelecom Cup 2011 [S14]
53 176.77 Timothy DOLENSKY JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [J2]
62 168.47 Shotaro OMORI* JGP Brasov Cup 2011 [J-P5]
66 166.42 Philip WARREN JGP Brisbane 2011 [J3]
67 166.38 Harrison CHOATE* JGP Brasov Cup 2011 [J4]
69 164.27 Jay YOSTANTO* JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011 [J7]
73 161.85 David WANG* JGP Baltic Cup 2011 [J11]
109 136.33 Emmanuel SAVARY* JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [J12]

U.S. PAIRS
8 185.42 Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN Four Continents Championships 2012 [S1] (WTT coming up)
11 178.89 Mary Beth MARLEY / Rockne BRUBAKER Four Continents Championships 2012 [S2]
[14 170.63 Amanda EVORA / Mark LADWIG GP Cup of China 2011 [S3] - SPLIT]
20 155.42 Tiffany VISE / Don BALDWIN GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2011 [S9]
25 150.55 Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER* World Junior Championships 2012 [J1]
26 149.02 Marissa CASTELLI / Simon SHNAPIR GP NHK Trophy 2011 [S5]
30 146.35 Britney SIMPSON / Matthew BLACKMER* Junior Grand Prix Final 2011/12 [J2]
36 139.32 Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU* JGP Tallinn Cup 2011 [J4]
[39 138.02 Ashley CAIN / Joshua REAGAN GP Rostelecom Cup 2011 [S6] - SPLIT]
43 133.93 Kylie DUARTE / Colin GRAFTON World Junior Championships 2012 [J3]
56 118.51 Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE* JGP Baltic Cup 2011 [J6]
58 118.45 Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLAN* JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [J9]
65 109.61 Caitlin BELT / Michael JOHNSON* Youth Olympic Games 2012 [J-E5]

U.S. DANCE
1 188.55 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE Grand Prix Final 2011/12 [S1] (WTT coming up)
8 160.55 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI Grand Prix Final 2011/12 [S2]
14 143.95 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE World Championships 2012 [S3]
17 141.14 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON* World Junior Championships 2012 [J1]
20 135.10 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES GP Skate Canada International 2011 [S5]
[28 129.63 Lauri BONACORSI / Travis MAGER JGP Trofeo W. Lombardi 2011 [J2] - SPLIT]
34 126.39 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT GP NHK Trophy 2011 [S4]
[52 115.22 Isabella CANNUSCIO / Ian LORELLO GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2011 [S9] - SPLIT]
53 115.12 Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Michael BRAMANTE* JGP Brasov Cup 2011 [J6]
57 114.22 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS* Youth Olympic Games 2012 [J4]
66 109.61 Charlotte LICHTMAN / Dean COPELY GP Cup of China 2011 [S10]
70 106.74 Emily SAMUELSON / Todd GILLES GP Cup of China 2011 [S8]
73 104.72 Madeline HERITAGE / Nathaniel FAST* JGP Brisbane 2011 [J5]
[74 103.49 Jessica MANCINI / Tyler BROOKS* JGP Baltic Cup 2011 [J9] - SPLIT]
84 94.78 Danielle GAMELIN / Alexander GAMELIN JGP Volvo Cup 2011 [J12]

ETA 2011-12 SENIOR B scores for the U.S. skaters (not counted by ISU as SB scores):

215.20 Stephen Carriere, Ice Challenge, 1st
207.54 Stephen Carriere, Nebelhorn Trophy, 3rd
204.17 Max Aaron, Nebelhorn, 5th
203.42 Keegan Messing, Cup of Nice, 1st
189.68 Jonathan Cassar, Ondrej Nepela, 4th
189.58 Grant Hochstein, Ondrej Nepela, 5th
189.43 Douglas Razzano, Finlandia, 2nd

167.46 Mirai Nagasu, Nebelhorn, 1st
152.72 Caroline Zhang, Ice Challenge, 1st
122.74 Joelle Forte, Nebelhorn, 7th

162.73 Caydee Denney & John Coughlin, Nebelhorn, 3rd
159.09 Mary Beth Marley & Rockne Brubaker, Cup of Nice, 3rd
154.00 Ashley Cain & Joshua Reagan, Cup of Nice, 4th - SPLIT
147.97 Marissa Castelli & Simon Shnapir, Ondrej Nepela, 4th
143.14 Andrea Poapst & Chris Knierim, Ice Challenge, 1st
132.65 Tiffany Vise & Don Baldwin, Nebelhorn, 7th

151.08 Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani, Finlandia, 2nd
139.01 Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue, Nebelhorn, 1st
138.07 Lynn Kriengkrairut & Logan Giulietti-Schmitt, Ice Challenge, 1st
136.88 Madison Chock & Evan Bates, Finlandia, 3rd
134.88 Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello, Ice Challenge, 2nd - SPLIT
119.42 Anastasia Olson & Jordan Cowan, Nebelhorn, 6th - SPLIT
109.68 Anastasia Cannuscio & Colin McManus, Ondrej Nepela, 5th

[smarts1]

I thought top 24 SB scorers pretty much get 2 spots in the GP...

[jlai]

It's going to be hard for a lot of skaters to get second spot. Because of the reduced number of entries and the fact that some federations no longer have skaters with automatic entries, skaters who formerly got a spot on their own but no longer do so will all compete for host picks, if they are from Chn/Can/etc.

[jlai]

I've just taken a quick look. Assuming the rules stay the same (big if), seems like the top 12 at worlds and top 24 seasons best skaters will take up 37 to 43 spots, depending on whether top skaters will do a third event (and Miyahara doing JGP). Then there are about 8 skaters who may still be in top 24 world ranking that don't have a spot and need one. Then second spots will probably go to girls like Sotnikova. Plus host picks. There won't be much left.

I think Gao may end up needing a host pick!

I haven't really calculated the new top 24 world ranking, and I was just adding candidates who will likely remain top 24. (So I can be wrong.)
And if more top skaters don't do a third event, then there's a bit more leeway. And then there are withdrawals, so girls like Lam and Cesario may still get one.

Anyway, having only 10 slots for GP sucks.

ETA: Men

I think there are about 44 slots taken up by men with top 12 at worlds, top 24 seasson's best or world ranking. Whether men that have one spot will get a second spot will depend on host picks and whether top men take a third slot. Last year only one man did a third event, so things look better for Rippon, Miner and Farris than the ladies ( the season's best and world ranking list also don't differ as much).

[barbk]

I really feel bad for Armin. I hope he manages to get one. And I hope the USFSA doesn't use one of the host picks to yet again prop up Dornbush unless he does fabulously well at summer comps and perhaps a Senior B.

[pinky166]

I really feel bad for Armin. I hope he manages to get one. And I hope the USFSA doesn't use one of the host picks to yet again prop up Dornbush unless he does fabulously well at summer comps and perhaps a Senior B.

Dornbush has 1 GP garaunteed whereas Armin has none, so I doubt that is likely to happen, unless Armin manages to get a GP anyways and they want to give Dornbush a 2nd. It's more likely they might give a SA to someone like Farris or Brown should they both move up and not manage to get 2 assignments off the bat (they should be able to, but again, space is tight), or to a skater with no assignment who does well in summer competitions (maybe Aaron, Messing, Carriere, Razzano, Mahbanoozadeh if he doesn't already get one, or Mroz if he gets it back together). I just hope if they move up, Farris and Brown get 2 assignments ahead of someone like Rippon or Dornbush, they deserve it more after last season honestly.

[haribobo]

Armin and SA is an interesting thing- he's already been assigned there 2 years running, so logic would dictate that its someone else's turn. But, since he *was* pewter medalist at Nationals and probably won't be getting any other GP spots, USFS might assign him for a 3rd year in a row just so he has something. Same with Razzano who went last year, finished 5th at Nationals, and isn't high enough to get any other spots. But knowing USFS, they'll assign Weir and Lysacek with someone like Abbott in hopes of selling tickets.

[sigrid]

The ISU World Standings rankings list will be purged of the 2009-10 data/points at the end of this season and the skaters' 2010-11 points will be reduced to 70%. If anyone feels like doing the math now...

I did it for the men:

1- Chan 4080
2- Takahashi 3476
3- Hanyu 3088
4- Brezina 2751
5- Abbott 2679
6- Gachinski 2625
7- Kozuka 2592
8- Contesti 2435
9- Fernandez 2331
10- Amodio 2219
11- Rippon 2013
12- Verner 1936
13- Van der Perren 1893 (retiring?)
14- Joubert 1859
15- Majorov 1851
16- Ten 1850
17- Oda 1825
18- Miner 1682
19- Machida 1442

[Sylvia]

Thanks, sigrid!

By my calculations:
19 Yan CHN 1,667
20 Dornbush USA 1,547
21 Brown USA 1,452
22 Machida JPN 1442
23 Song CHN 1,408
24 Mura JPN 1,337
25 Farris USA 1,317

Maybe it's time to start the annual "Grand Prix Pre-announcement Thread" in GSD for early speculation/discussion of all (not just U.S.) skaters?

ETA: Last year the ISU World Standings were updated for the new season around May 11.

According to a post I saw over at Golden Skate, there will be 4 U.S. ladies in the ISU World Standings top 24 after they are updated for the new season - Czisny, Wagner, Nagasu and Zawadzki; Zhang and Flatt will drop out of the top 24.

By my calculations, before (2011-12) & after (2012-13) the update:
Czisny 3,421 --> 2,650
Wagner 2,223 --> 1,901
Nagasu 2,817 --> 1,804
Zawadzki 1,833 --> 1,553
Zhang 2,193 --> 1,315
Gao 1,542 --> 1,098
Flatt 2,347 --> 1,011
Lam 871 --> 796
Gold 700 --> 700

[pinky166]

Armin and SA is an interesting thing- he's already been assigned there 2 years running, so logic would dictate that its someone else's turn. But, since he *was* pewter medalist at Nationals and probably won't be getting any other GP spots, USFS might assign him for a 3rd year in a row just so he has something. Same with Razzano who went last year, finished 5th at Nationals, and isn't high enough to get any other spots. But knowing USFS, they'll assign Weir and Lysacek with someone like Abbott in hopes of selling tickets.

Probably but hopefully not. Razzano shouldn't get SA until he upgrades his combo from 3t-3t . I sort of don't understand his huge FS score at Nationals either, I get that Aaaron, Messing, Brown, Farris, etc all kind of bombed the FS, but I didn't see how he was so much higher than Carriere and Mahbanoozadeh who skated well and are stronger components wise (or at least should be). Anyways if Armin manages to get an assignment on his own, SA will likely go to someone else, but if he doesn't get any initial assignments, I think he is the logical pick for the host spot, granted he does well over the summer. USFS owes it to him after sending Ricky Dornbush to 4CC when he clearly wasn't in a good place with his skating and finished 9 spots below Armin at Nationals (and the 13th place was generous, that FS wasn't worth 150 when Aaron, Messing, Brown, and Farris were scoring in the 130s for similar skates).

Again though, if Farris/Brown move up and don't get 2 spots on their own, the host pick should go to one of them, honestly, they are the best hope for the future and need to be getting exposure now because who know how long Jeremy will stick around for and if Lysacek and Weir will even come back convincingly or at all. Does anyone know what Farris and Brown's plans are re: GP vs JGP? Or how likely they are to get 2 assignments without a host pick should they move up?

[barbk]

Can WTT accrue any points for anyone?

(And thanks for the computation, Sigrid!)