2012-13 US assignments speculation

[love_skate2011]

^

lol, what ?
but I really like Brown, I have never been excited by a men's junior skater for a while, you feel his energy and just want to skate with Brown, I don't feel anything from Farris, I respect if others may like Farris style but he is not my cup of tea. As I said before Farris will become the new Ross Miner or Dornbush, once he goes seniors he will be left behind and in the shadows
Farris is just too boring and forgettable.

look at Brown he has been rewarded and judges love him even without the
harder jumps yet, just imagine if he gets them next season, Im not yet that optimistic but he can pretty much beat most seniors GP once he gets the quad and axel maybe even Chan.

[Sylvia]

Of course you're are entitled to your opinions, but I dislike the fact that you are repeating similar "trollish" comments from other threads ("Skaters moving up from JGP to senior GP?" for example) and now derailing this one.

To further clarify: If you (or anyone else) are going to gush about your favorite skaters, why not do it without tearing down others in the process?

[toddlj]

Remember that the ISU World Standings should shift around a bit after the 2009-10 results are purged (although Brown has no points to lose from that season and Farris' ranking is not likely be affected much, if at all).

Here's what I posted in the 2012 Junior Worlds forum after the Men's FS:

Last year's men's bronze medalist from Junior Worlds, Sweden's Alexander Majorov, only received 1 initial GP assignment. The U.S. men received 14 GP slots (including 2 for Lysacek as a "comeback skater") and who knows if Lysacek and/or Weir may return?

These are all great points.

I guess I'm just assuming the US will have 5-7 men who get two spots (Abbott, Rippon, Miner will be three of them) and even with the possibility of Weir and Lysacek too, I still think there will be other US guys with two assignments. I guess Dornbush is a consideration, but who would be next? Brown/Farris are high on both lists.

Anyway, I'm not saying Brown/Farris are a lock for two spots, just that the odds seem pretty good for one or both of them.

[DORISPULASKI]

My guess is that Farris will go senior, in hopes of qualifying for Sochi, and Brown will stay Junior, in hopes of getting his 3A before having to go Senior. When do Brown & Farris have to declare one way or the other, for senior or junior? August?

[pinky166]

realistically, I see the us pairs and ice dance in juniors to stay in JGP
Gold will be moving seniors like Zawadski. A good advantage for the judges to get more familiar with her for 2014

Brown can go to senior GP also as he can medal but Farris will probably stay in JGP , Farris is a bit lower compared to Brown's development , he still needs to catch up with Brown in terms of artistry and finesse and doesn't yet have the all around skating skills.

Josh has done 3 seasons on the JGP already, has won 3 golds at individual events, qualified for 2 JGPFs, medaled at one, and just won silver at JW with a score that put him above most of the top senior men (Rippon, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Mroz, Razzano) in the US on the SB list. The only way I see him staying on the JGP another season is if he is really focused on getting the 4t out in competition and doesn't want to try it at senior events where the stakes are so high and mistakes on that jump will likely cost him good finishes. But if I were him, I'd move up to the GP. If the judges are handing him scores of 221+ in junior competitions I think it means he's ready for the senior ranks, I mean, if he skates like he did at JW, there's a good chance he could be beating skaters like Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh, maybe even Miner and Rippon, at GP events next season, especially if he starts putting the 4t in his programs, and it sounds like his 4t is nearly competition ready already.

Brown can go to GP if he wants, but I highly doubt he will medal with no 3a. And actually, I think it's more likely he stays on the JGP than Farris because he has only done 2 seasons on the JGP, has only gone to one JGPF, and may want to get the 3a out in competition on the junior ranks where he can fall on it, or omit it, and still be able to medal and qualify for the final.

[Sylvia]

When do Brown & Farris have to declare one way or the other, for senior or junior? August?

Sometime in the spring, ahead of the ISU Grand Prix selection meeting (last year's meeting was held in late June; the ISU Congress meets this year in mid-June so the selection meeting could take place beforehand?).

[jlai]

I do wonder if Jason has enough motivation to keep going in junior GP. He has done two years of that and won the final already. Besides he can do well in next year's JGP without putting in a 3A (which is what he did this year).

Whichever way Jason is more motivated (sr or jr) I hope he will choose that road.

[euterpe]

Both Brown and Farris have been skating Senior domestically for the past two seasons. If Farris wants to move up to Seniors internationally, he needs to let USFS know so they can submit him for GP invitations at the meeting in June. As both a JGPF and JW medalist and #16 on the SB list, Farris has a good shot to get two GP events.

Brown is 19th on the SB list and is the JGPF champion and a JW medalist. He also might get two GP events if he wants to move up. I agree that it's probably better for him to stay JGP until he can achieve a stable 3A, but it's up to him to decide.

[Sylvia]

I do wonder if Jason has enough motivation to keep going in junior GP. He has done two years of that and won the final already. Besides he can do well in next year's JGP without putting in a 3A (which is what he did this year).

If Brown decides to return to the JGP next season, why would he NOT try to compete with a 3A?

Whichever way Jason is more motivated (sr or jr) I hope he will choose that road.

Of course, that goes without saying. Then again, maybe Brown will be motivated to visit Istanbul, Turkey, which is one of the JGP locations this fall.

[chipso1]

Thanks for cross-posting my post here, Sylvia! I completely forgot about Nina Jiang and Courtney Hicks...that makes the decisions even tougher!

I agree with those saying Farris would probably be better off on the SGP next season, as his 3A is consistent and his quad is coming along. Brown would probably be better off on the JGP again, since GP spots for U.S. senior men look to be very competitive (again).

[pinky166]

I'd rather see Farris and Brown on the GP. Weir and Lysacek can save their posturing and play "pretend comeback" for an extra 15minutes of fame at Nationals.

Farris-Brown has the potential to be a Lysacek-Weir rivalry 2.0 anyways. I'd rather Evan and Johnny watch then pretend they are actually coming back. Since JW there has been a lot of banter about Farris and Brown, who have actually been competing against each other since they were little tykes, and it really reminds me of Evan-Johnny banter. If those two keep up their success on the senior ranks, we may see something of a full-fledged Lysacek-Weir rivalry 2.0 develop. That would surely be interesting.

Anyways I think Farris should for sure stay in the top 24 after Worlds, 8 people would have to pass him for him to get bumped off and the only skaters currently below him competing at Worlds who I can really see scoring 222 points or more at Worlds are Joubert and Rippon, and maybe Ten and Contesti if he skates a great SP which he never seems to... As for Jason, only 5 have to pass him for him to be bumped off, and 215 could be feasibly broken by Contesti, KVDP, Ten, Reynolds, and Voronov, plus Joubert and Rippon. He still has a shot to stay on the list though because most of the skaters I mentioned are very inconsistent.

[icemusings]

Ladies:
Gold--with a World Junior medal and a top score for the season, she'll be eligible for Grand Prix assignments and I expect she'll go senior.
Cesario and Lam could both return to the Junior Grand Prix. Both would be unlikely to receive senior assignments (possibly a senior B) so they may elect to go this route.
Hicks was likely planning on making her Grand Prix debut this fall but coming back from the injury, the Junior Grand Prix is likely her safest best.

I would assign Hicks, Cesario, Lam, Angela Wang, Ashley Cain, Hannah Miller, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell for initial assignments. If any of these skaters decline or fail to medal, next on the list would be Nina Jiang, Leah Keiser, Yasmin Siraj, Polina Edmunds, Amanda Gelb and Madison Vinci.

Men:
If he's serious about Sochi, Brown needs to move to the Grand Prix. He's already competed at nationals as a senior for two years and won a World Junior medal and the Junior Grand Prix Final. He needs to get the triple axel consistent over the summer and put it out in competition. With a triple axel and a quad, Farris should move up as well.

I would assign Nathan Chen, Harrison Choate, Lukas Kaugars, Jay Yostanto, Troy Tomasello, Andrew Nagode, David Wang and Emmanual Savary. If any of them don't medal, next on the list would be James Schetlich, Spencer Howe and Kevin Shum and there would also be room for skaters like Shotaro Omori who competed on the JGP but didn't qualify for nationals.

Pairs:
Denney and Frazier have already said they plan to compete as seniors next year and with the US title and a respectable 4th place finish at Worlds, they seem ready to move up. Duarte and Grafton are aging out of Juniors.

I would give initial assignments to Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, de la Mora/Wilson, Oltmanns/Santillan and Goldberg/Dolkiewicz. If they move up to juniors, Zaitsev/Utah Stevens would be next on the list. This leaves plenty of room for new teams who are age eligible to land an assignment, especially later in the JGP season.

Dance:
With a World Junior medal, Aldridge and Eaton are eligible for Grand Prix assignments and having already won the US national title and qualified for the JGP Final, I believe they'll move up. Bonacorsi and Mager have aged out of juniors.

I would assign McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, Pogrebinsky/Gudis, Mancini/Brooks, Moore/Klaber and Miller/MacMillan. Next on the list would be Rosinski/Jaffe which leaves room for new teams to receive assignments as well.

[barbk]

Does Evan still qualify for "comeback" skater status since he ended up not using his entries last year after asking for them? I rather hope not -- given the smaller number of GP invites, I would find it annoying if a skater blocked a couple of them and bowed out yet again, and I can easily see this happen. These days it seems that quite a few of the Olympians have not declared pro status and several have talked about coming back to competition.

[Jammers]

Isn't Cesario almost 19 now? Also i'd much rather see Keiser, Edmunds and Jiang get JGP events next year then someone like Barbie Long. Something about her skating i just don't like and i think the other girls have more potential.

[pinky166]

Isn't Cesario almost 19 now? Also i'd much rather see Keiser, Edmunds and Jiang get JGP events next year then someone like Barbie Long. Something about her skating i just don't like and i think the other girls have more potential.

Cesario will turn 19 in August, so she misses the July 1st cutoff and is therfore eligible for one more season. Barbie will be given an initial JGP because she medaled at nationals in junior. Chances are pretty good that both Polina and Nina get assignments though, I assume Cesario will be sent to senior B(s) along with Baga, Lam will probably move up, she may be able to get one GP and then a senior B. USFS in the past has sent junior age eligible skaters that place in the top 15 or so in senior nationals to the JGP, so this means Nina and even Siraj will likely be considered. As the 6th place finisher in junior, Polina's chances are good. Gracie will probably do the senior GP, so Cain, Miller, Long are sure to be given initial assignments. Bell is being sent to Gardenia so she likely will be given an assignment as well. Angela Wang would be next in line due to her 8th place at senior nationals. Then Polina and Nina are probably the next two in line, along with Leah Keiser, for assignments, unless Lam and Cesario chose to do JGP again and Courtney Hicks is wholly healed and does really well in summer competitions. Even with her JGP experience, they would probably be sent before Yasmin Siraj due to Yasmin's performances at Nationals and then turning down her 2nd JGP this season, and only finishing 5th at her first.

I think Jason Brown's decision regarding GP vs JGP may come down to if he stays in the top 24 on the SB list after Worlds. If he does, I'd say he should go GP b/c it's quite likely he'd get 2 assignments, but if he falls out of the top 24, then there's a chance he might only get 1 assignment, in which case it would probably be smarter to do JGP where he'd basically be gauranteed of 2 spots and his odds of earning a trip to the final would be very good, and he could get his 3a out in competition without the stakes being so high. But if he's in the top 24 and can get 2 senior GP assignments? Then I say might as well move up, mediocre finishes wouldn't be looked down upon where he'd be making his senior debut, and there wouldn't be a lot of pressure on him to medal with the field being so deep.

As for Farris I see no reason for him to stay junior, unless he and coaches decide it's really the right move. But I mean considering he just matched/exceeded the scores put up by 4 of the top 5 US senior men at international competitions at JW, I think that's a sign he's ready to move up, especially if his goal is to make the World team next season and Sochi in 2014, which I assume it probably is. And again, he might as well just get the 4t out in competition, if he doesn't place great in his GPs, as a 17 year old making his senior debut, it won't really hurt his reputation or anything. Plus I'd be surprised if he falls out of the top 24 SB best list even after Worlds.

[SkateFan66]

Does Evan still qualify for "comeback" skater status since he ended up not using his entries last year after asking for them? I rather hope not -- given the smaller number of GP invites, I would find it annoying if a skater blocked a couple of them and bowed out yet again, and I can easily see this happen. These days it seems that quite a few of the Olympians have not declared pro status and several have talked about coming back to competition.

Since Lysacek did not compete last year, and thus has not had a "comeback season," it would appear that he could still qualify as a comeback skater. Moreover, Lysacek did not 'block' any skater from competing in the GP last year since replacement skaters were assigned to compete at each event. IMO, Lysacek has earned the right to compete in the 2012 GP based on his past competitive record: Olympic Champion, World Champion, 4CC Champion, & GP Final Champion. Whether you like his skating style or not, you have to acknowledge that he has proven that he is a great competitor. There are very few times since 2006, that Lysacek finished off the podium in an international competition.

[haribobo]

GP for the US skaters, using last year's criteria-

LADIES
Wagner- seeded, guaranteed 2, possibly 3.
Czisny, Zhang, Nagasu, Gold, Flatt- 1 each, possibly 2.

Zawadzki, Lam, Cesario, Gao, and Hicks (likely JGP?) are all 25-30 on SB list and could end up with a spot but currently it is not guaranteed for them. I'm hoping at least one SA spot goes to Baga or Cesario if they are in good form this summer.

MEN
Abbott- guaranteed 2
Miner, Rippon, Farris, Brown, Dornbush- guaranteed 1

Aaron, Messing, Hochstein, Dyer, Mahbanoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere, and Cassar aren't top 24 and none that high (some not on at all) on the SB list, so they can hope for SA. Weir and Lysacek? We'll see.

PAIRS
Denney/Coughlin and Marley/Brubaker guaranteed 2, Vise/Baldwin get 1.

Yankowskas/Reagan could get one as comeback skaters and we'll see if Cain or Ladwig gets a partner. Denney/Frazier and Simpson/Blackmer are 25-30 on SB list but may go back to JGP. Castelli/Shnapir are 26th so they'll likely get something. Donlan/Speroff and Poapst Knierim should both get SA IMO unless they are injured. Duarte/Grafton and Zhang/Bartholomay can do Nebelhorn and be alternates for SA maybe.

DANCE
Davis/White, Shibutanis, and Hubbell/Donohue get 2 each, 3 for D/W if desired. Aldridge/Eaton and Chock/Bates get 1 each.

K/G-S, Samuelson/Gilles, Cannuscio/McManus could be factors for the SA spots, along with new teams Olson/Hubbell and Lichtman/Cowan (I think that's right?) if they show well at Lake Placid...

[DORISPULASKI]

They've changed the GP rules several times. I'm wondering whether they will do so again this year.

I'm wondering if we will see a Plushenko rule for medallists at Europeans/4CC's to guarantee Evgeni 2 spots? If so, Zhang & Miner would also benefit.

So would Gachinski and Stolbova/Klimov.

[Jemestone]

I thought Plushenko could use his comeback skater status to gain 2 spots? Also he is guaranteed 1, surely the second could be a host pick. Same with Gachinski, Zhang, and Miner.

[jlai]

post..

Did Flatt earn one because of her overall ISU ranking? I thought her season's best wasn't too high.

US men get into this funny situation where 3 of the top 6 at US nationals don't have a great chance of getting a GP spot. This is fairly unusual.

Where can one see a SB list? Thanks.