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  1. #21
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    No lets not burn out this poor girl before she's even had a chance to skate a year in the Senior ranks.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by UDelpairs2012 View Post
    If Gracie Gold medals at Jr Worlds they should send her to worlds....FSU please dont kill me
    If you repost this in the Gracie Gold thread in GSD I will reply to you there : http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=81717

    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    As always someone is going to tell me its too early to start this thread but we have results and that means time to speculate on what will happen with next season!
    haribobo, this is what you get when you start a speculation thread for next season too early!

  3. #23
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    [ However, I also sense some desperation that wasn't present five years ago I also sense a switch from, "if she's this good at 12, imagine what she'll be like at 16!" to "yeah, she's this good at 12, but can she keep those triples/triples past puberty?"



    Yes. Used to be the attitude was you were considered "over-the-hill" if you were a new senior at age 16. Media types like Christine Brennan were searching for the 13 year olds............

  4. #24

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    Speculations

    Pairs
    This is easy (before they all break up): Denney, H./Frazier, Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, and Zaitsev/Stevens. Even though Denney/Frazier plan to move up to senior domestically, I see no advantage to moving up to senior internationally. Their world ranking and season best is quite low and they haven't had any junior international success to speak of. Simpson/Blackmer have stated they plan to remain junior domestically, so it follows that they'll stay junior internationally even with their medal at the JGP Final this year.

    Ice Dance
    Aldridge/Eaton, McNamara/Carpenter (so excited for them to be old enough!), Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, and whoever does well at Lake Placid.

    Men
    It will be interesting to find out what Brown and Farris want to do. Brown's already won the JGP Final, but without a triple axel, he won't be competitive as a senior. Farris has the skills to compete with the senior men, but isn't all that consistent. If they do well at junior worlds, I think it's more likely that they'll move up. If not, we shall see. Other men who should be considered for JGP spots: Chen, Choate, Kaugars, Yostanto, Scheltiech, Howe, and Shum.

    Ladies
    I expect Gold and Lam to move up to seniors next season. Probably Cesario will, too. So I would give assignments to Cain, Miller, Long, Bell, Wang, Baga, Jiang, and Keiser. If Hicks is recovered in time, she could displace one of the above girls after summer monitoring. I wouldn't consider any of the novices since the top two are too young and there's enough depth in the higher, harder divisions to handily fill out a JGP roster.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by her grace View Post
    Speculations

    Pairs
    This is easy (before they all break up): Denney, H./Frazier, Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, and Zaitsev/Stevens. Even though Denney/Frazier plan to move up to senior domestically, I see no advantage to moving up to senior internationally. Their world ranking and season best is quite low and they haven't had any junior international success to speak of. Simpson/Blackmer have stated they plan to remain junior domestically, so it follows that they'll stay junior internationally even with their medal at the JGP Final this year.

    Ice Dance
    Aldridge/Eaton, McNamara/Carpenter (so excited for them to be old enough!), Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, and whoever does well at Lake Placid.

    Men
    It will be interesting to find out what Brown and Farris want to do. Brown's already won the JGP Final, but without a triple axel, he won't be competitive as a senior. Farris has the skills to compete with the senior men, but isn't all that consistent. If they do well at junior worlds, I think it's more likely that they'll move up. If not, we shall see. Other men who should be considered for JGP spots: Chen, Choate, Kaugars, Yostanto, Scheltiech, Howe, and Shum.

    Ladies
    I expect Gold and Lam to move up to seniors next season. Probably Cesario will, too. So I would give assignments to Cain, Miller, Long, Bell, Wang, Baga, Jiang, and Keiser. If Hicks is recovered in time, she could displace one of the above girls after summer monitoring. I wouldn't consider any of the novices since the top two are too young and there's enough depth in the higher, harder divisions to handily fill out a JGP roster.
    Does Warren age out of juniors after this season? If not I assume he'd do JGP again as he isn't going to JW and therefore won't have another shot to boost his SB. Maybe he can get a senior B or two though.

    Baga has already done 2 seasons on the JGP, and that doesn't include this season, I assume she'll move up to seniors and likely get a senior B or two, or maybe if she continues to skate well she could get the host spot at SA.

    Also do Duarte/Grafton age out of juniors after this season? I feel like they might. In any event, they probably should move up to seniors, if they can get a decent SB at JW, then they might be able to get 1 GP and if not, they will be in the mix for senior Bs and maybe the SA host spot if they continue to skate well.

  6. #26

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    Warren and Duarte/Grafton age out of ISU Junior after this season (ETA: as well as Dolensky, Bonacorsi/Mager and the Gamelin twins in dance among the JGP competitors this season).

    BTW, it's pretty rare for a skater to get a "senior B or two" with the limited number of Senior B slots these days. 7 men, 3 ladies, 6 pairs, and 7 dance teams were assigned this season, for example, and only Carriere received 2 this season and he didn't have a GP (ETA: ditto for 4 of the men and 1 of the dance teams).

    AFAIK the ISP skaters (JGP age-eligible ones) usually are asked if they prefer to compete junior or senior (i.e., Cesario this season), but there is no guarantee that they will receive an assignment.

    ETA: I'm hoping Shotaro Omori will be considered for the ISP.
    Last edited by Sylvia; 01-31-2012 at 04:43 PM.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by her grace View Post
    Speculations

    Pairs
    This is easy (before they all break up): Denney, H./Frazier, Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage, and Zaitsev/Stevens. Even though Denney/Frazier plan to move up to senior domestically, I see no advantage to moving up to senior internationally. Their world ranking and season best is quite low and they haven't had any junior international success to speak of. Simpson/Blackmer have stated they plan to remain junior domestically, so it follows that they'll stay junior internationally even with their medal at the JGP Final this year.

    Ice Dance
    Aldridge/Eaton, McNamara/Carpenter (so excited for them to be old enough!), Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante, and whoever does well at Lake Placid.

    Men
    It will be interesting to find out what Brown and Farris want to do. Brown's already won the JGP Final, but without a triple axel, he won't be competitive as a senior. Farris has the skills to compete with the senior men, but isn't all that consistent. If they do well at junior worlds, I think it's more likely that they'll move up. If not, we shall see. Other men who should be considered for JGP spots: Chen, Choate, Kaugars, Yostanto, Scheltiech, Howe, and Shum.

    Ladies
    I expect Gold and Lam to move up to seniors next season. Probably Cesario will, too. So I would give assignments to Cain, Miller, Long, Bell, Wang, Baga, Jiang, and Keiser. If Hicks is recovered in time, she could displace one of the above girls after summer monitoring. I wouldn't consider any of the novices since the top two are too young and there's enough depth in the higher, harder divisions to handily fill out a JGP roster.
    I can't see Jason Brown staying a Junior for another year. I'm sure he'll be doing his triple sxel next season. He was going to at least one at Nats but hurt his ankle.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I can't see Jason Brown staying a Junior for another year. I'm sure he'll be doing his triple sxel next season. He was going to at least one at Nats but hurt his ankle.
    I think Jason and Josh's decisions regarding JGP vs. GP will depend on how both boys do at JW. If they can medal (which IMO they both have a good shot at), I tend to think both will move up, if they don't fair as well, then it's probably more up in the air. Either boy could potentially even win, though Han Yan is very strong.

  9. #29
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    Also isn't there going to be a new senior B next season? (Glacier Falls, or Thornhill? Maybe both?). For the men senior B spots always seem to be limited but I think it's feasible that pairs and ladies could be assigned to two, I mean the USFS didn't even send any ladies to Finlandia this season...

  10. #30

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    Thanks for reminding me that USFS is planning to host a new Senior B in late summer or fall of this year -- thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=82267

  11. #31
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    Zaitsev/Stevens might not move up to Junior level for the next season -- no one will know until early summer.

    They were first year Novice's this year, and a bit young compared to the other medalists (12 and he just turned 18 a couple weeks ago). They had some easier throws and SBS jumps compared to the other Novice medalists. They could gain the more difficult jumps needed in junior by summer, or may need an extra season. Since they're coached by S. Zaitsev, I would expect them to follow a similar path that Andrews/Anderson followed (2 years at Novice -- finishing in the middle of the pack the first year, and won their second year), before moving on to Juniors. Give "Divette & Utah" some time, if they need it.

  12. #32
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    I know this is an old thread, but both US jr nationals and JWC have just concluded. We now know the number of JGP slots the US receive, so I figured that this might be a good time to revive this thread.

    Incidentally, if my math is correct, US will receive the maximum slots allowed to each discipline, and the highest number of JGP slots because of the outstanding results our young representatives produced (Yes, we get more than Russia, Japan & China!) Well done, guys!

    First the number of available JGP slots for the US jr skaters based on the JWC results (Men - silver & bronze; Ladies - silver; Ice Dance - bronze; Pairs - 4th):

    Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
    Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
    Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event);
    Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

    * I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.

    Since I follow ice dancing the closest, I will start with that particular discipline, and perhaps posters interested in other disciplines can fill out singles and pairs slots.

    Ice Dance:

    1. Loraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter,
    2. the Parsons siblings,
    3. Madeline Heritage/Nathaniel Fast, and
    4. Kaitlin Hawayek/Michael Bramante (3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th at nationals)
    are very likely to receive at least one assignment each. They are also all finishing up the first season as juniors. The highest finish at this season's JGP among this group were the 4th (H/B), and 5th (H/F), so they all have room for improving their international standings.

    Banacorsi/Mager, and Gamelins are aged out as it was stated previously. Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).

    5. The Novice national champtions, Holly Moore (16)/Daniel Klaber (18) are very likely to move up to junior and will receive a JGP assignment.
    6. The Novice silver medalists, Whitney Miller (13) /Kyle McMillan (14) are an interesting case. They are still quite young, and the USFSA in general is disinclined to send very young stakers for oversea competitions. However, in spite of their age, M/M finished only 1.4 point behind the champions (109.53 vs. 108.13). Therefore, if M/M choose to move up to jr, they have a very good chance to receive an assignment.

    I am also hoping that the US sends more ice dance teams to JGP competitions for the upcoming season than the current season. That is, although USFSA in 2011-2012 season was allowed to send the maximum of 14 teams, USFSA used up only 10 slots (a total of 7 teams with the top three finishing teams, Aldridge/Eaton, Banacorsi/Mager, and Hawayek/Bramante being assigned twice.)

    I understand the rational for sending only those teams that have chance to earn the JGPF entry to be sent twice, presumably due to economic considerations. Given the depth and breadth of US ice dancing field, I would really like to see more teams with international exposure, especially since we are hosting one event this year with lesser cost for travelling.

    P.S.: The number of slots the US receive depends on the assumption that ISU does not change rules over the summer, which, as we know, is no certain matter.
    Last edited by mineko; 03-05-2012 at 10:44 AM.

  13. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by mineko View Post
    Men: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
    Ladies: 15 slots (2 skaters per event and 3 skaters for the host country event);
    Ice Dance: 15 slots (2 couples per event and 3 couples for the host country event);
    Pairs: 12 slots* (3 pairs per event) - Pairs are contested only among four out of seven JGP events.

    * I am assuming the maximum pair slots we can get is 12, rather than 13 pairs, since the ISU rules for the host country is 3 slots even if the US sponsor a pair event.
    The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pair’s event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.

    Aldridge/Eason, though technically they are eligible to be in junior one more year, I am not certain if they wish, given that they pracitically achieved all off their season's goals (medalling both JGP events, skating at JGPF; us champions, and medalling at JWR).
    My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.

    ETA: Two more age-eligible teams in Junior from 2012 Nationals are Pogrebinsky/Gudis (J8) who were included in the ISP this season, and Mancini/Brooks (J9) who had 1 JGP. The male partners in the Junior teams of Bertsch/Kaplun (J7) and Howe/Jahnke (J10) have turned 21 so have aged out.
    Last edited by Sylvia; 03-05-2012 at 04:16 PM.

  14. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.
    Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    The current rule (published in the 2010-11 JGP Announcement) says that "Concerning the Organizing Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pair’s event." However, I assume USFS' budget for the Lake Placid JGP as well as the number of pairs they feel are "JGP worthy" will determine if more than 3 pairs are sent.
    Thank you for clarifying the tricky part of ISU rules. I wondered about this part as you see from the "*" I had placed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.
    That's interesting. For sure we'll know soon.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    My guess is that Aldridge/Eaton may want to compete a final season on the JGP to gain valuable ISU World ranking points, etc. before going senior internationally. We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tammi View Post
    Definitely wise to wait and see what changes (if any) there will be to GP selections this upcoming season. I didn't have time to look before responding here, but I'm fairly certain that JW and JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed a GP spot. With the ISU dropping the number of dance teams at GP's, they would probably need to rely on being a host pick for SA or getting a Senior B. Might be risky giving the depth of senior dance right now for the US. I can definitely see them being strong enough to compete junior internationally and senior at nationals.
    I always learn so much from FSU. Initially I was not certain just how valuable ISU World ranking points were. Now I have much better ides. After the GP eligibility change that occurred during the current season, Tammi, you are absolutely right. JW & JGP medalists are no longer guaranteed of a GP spot. According to "GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(c):

    "Medallists from the ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2011 and the medallists from the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final 2010/11 will be included in the selection process. Skaters/couples who have stated their intention to skate as Senior in 2011/12 might be included in the Grand Prix event(s) if they fulfill the requirements of the minimum score."

    In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples whose world rankings are from 1 - 12. That's it.

    One GP slot is guaranteed for those skaters:

    "...with an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 (after season 2010/11) and skaters/couples with seasonal best scores in the top 24 (for season 2010/11) who do not hold an ISU World Standing placement of 1 – 24 will be guaranteed one (1) event..." (GP General Announcement 2011_2012 2.2.(b))

    Aldridge/Eaton's current World Standing is 33, and their seasonal best scores is the 15th. Their rankings surely will slide downward once the 2012 Senior WC scores are tallied. Given A/E's current standings, it certainly makes better sense to at least wait their decision whether to move up to senior cercuit.

    P.S: Thanks, I've corrected Eaton's spelling.
    Last edited by mineko; 03-05-2012 at 08:31 PM.

  17. #37
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    For the record, because I've seen it spelled a bunch of different ways in this thread, the team is Alexandra Aldridge and Daniel Eaton.

  18. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by mineko View Post
    In other words, the rules dictate that the only skaters/couples guaranteed for two GP slots are the skaters/couples whose world rankings are from 1 - 12. That's it.
    No, it's the skaters/teams placing 1-12 at Worlds (according to the 2011-12 GP Announcement).

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    No, it's the skaters/teams placing 1-12 at Worlds (according to the 2011-12 GP Announcement).
    Ok, you are right.

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    delete
    Last edited by rhumba; 03-05-2012 at 11:09 PM. Reason: delete

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