2012-13 US assignments speculation

[haribobo]

As always someone is going to tell me its too early to start this thread but we have results and that means time to speculate on what will happen with next season!

JGP

Men- Chen, Kaugars, Choate, Yostanto, Tomasello, Schetelich, and Howe to start with. I expect Brown and Farris to move up to senior GP.

Ladies- Miller, Bell, Long, Cain, Edmunds, Wang, Daniels, Siraj, Jiang, Keiser, and Gold if she doesn't do senior GP. Siraj has done several seasons already but I guess one more can't hurt, unless she goes senior internationally...this one's a bit up in the air since it depends on senior ladies comp somewhat, and the results of Junior Worlds. I can't even begin to imagine adding some of the top novices to this list, its already so full (Chen and Glenn are too young but Gelb and Vinci are old enough). I think Lam will be moving up.

Pairs- Aaron/Settlage, Simpson/Blackmer (or senior GP?), Denney/Frazier (or senior GP?), Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Zaitsev/Stevens as the 6 core teams. Others may be added depending on offseason developments and Indy results.

Dance- Aldridge/Eaton (or senior GP), McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante for starters. We may see Moore/Klaber, Miller/MacMillan, Rosinski/Jaffe, Pogrebinsky/Gudis, and Mancini/Brooks added in depending on availability and summer results.

SENIOR B- hopefully room for Dolensky, Warren, Cesario, Forte, Baga, Duarte/Grafton, and Bonacorsi/Mager, among others. A few of these could squeak on to the GP series even.

[Stephanie]

Cesario can do JGP for one more season. That being said, she's been accepted to FIT and has already deferred a year (2011-2012). I would assume you can only defer one year so it'll be interesting to see what she does and if she keeps skating. I certainly hope so and that she'll be able to make it work.

I think Courtney Hicks will be back on the JGP also.

[jlai]

Hartley also may get one depending on how far down the standings usfs will go when they assign jgp skaters. If hartley gets 1 then there will be one fewer for the novice men podium finishers
In my mind howe should get it before hartley but jmo
Also usfs is hosting a jgp in lake placid
Doesnt that mean three spots for the host?
I hope Shum may get a host pick

[Sylvia]

Ryan Hartley turns 19 in May so ages out next season.

Also usfs is hosting a jgp in lake placid
Doesnt that mean three spots for the host?

Yes.

[PDilemma]

Doesn't Gold get all the senior GP assignments, all four medals at Nats next year and will compete as two or three U.S. competitors at Worlds while the current senior ladies are being sent to learn to drive the zamboni and atone for their skating sins?

(And I am not a "hater" or an "uber" of Gold. I am, quite frankly, undecided until she actually competes as a senior--but the fan hype on this one is reaching absurd heights).

[crzesk8dad]

As always someone is going to tell me its too early to start this thread but we have results and that means time to speculate on what will happen with next season!

JGP

Men- Chen, Kaugars, Choate, Yostanto, Tomasello, Schetelich, and Howe to start with. I expect Brown and Farris to move up to senior GP.

Ladies- Miller, Bell, Long, Cain, Edmunds, Wang, Daniels, Siraj, Jiang, Keiser, and Gold if she doesn't do senior GP. Siraj has done several seasons already but I guess one more can't hurt, unless she goes senior internationally...this one's a bit up in the air since it depends on senior ladies comp somewhat, and the results of Junior Worlds. I can't even begin to imagine adding some of the top novices to this list, its already so full (Chen and Glenn are too young but Gelb and Vinci are old enough). I think Lam will be moving up.

Pairs- Aaron/Settlage, Simpson/Blackmer (or senior GP?), Denney/Frazier (or senior GP?), Calalang/Sidhu, Pfund/Reiss, Zaitsev/Stevens as the 6 core teams. Others may be added depending on offseason developments and Indy results.

Dance- Aldridge/Eaton (or senior GP), McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Heritage/Fast, Hawayek/Bramante for starters. We may see Moore/Klaber, Miller/MacMillan, Rosinski/Jaffe, Pogrebinsky/Gudis, and Mancini/Brooks added in depending on availability and summer results.

SENIOR B- hopefully room for Dolensky, Warren, Cesario, Forte, Baga, Duarte/Grafton, and Bonacorsi/Mager, among others. A few of these could squeak on to the GP series even.

Question: Is Chen age eligible for JGP?

[Sylvia]

Question: Is Chen age eligible for JGP?

Yes, Nathan Chen turns 13 in May.

[Vagabond]

Doesn't Gold get all the senior GP assignments, all four medals at Nats next year and will compete as two or three U.S. competitors at Worlds while the current senior ladies are being sent to learn to drive the zamboni and atone for their skating sins?

(And I am not a "hater" or an "uber" of Gold. I am, quite frankly, undecided until she actually competes as a senior--but the fan hype on this one is reaching absurd heights).

My impression is that whatever fan hype she is getting is nothing compared to what Caroline Zhang got when she was a prepubescent junior with a wonky lutz, flip, and axel.

Gold doesn't have the technique problems Zhang had, and, at her age, she's unlikely to go through another major growth spurt.

I think most people who are excited about Gold's prospects recognize that even if she sustains or improves her technical abilities when she moves up to seniors, she has a long way to go on the second mark. By contrast, Caroline Zhang's biggest fans seemed to equate the beautiful positions she achieved in her spins and footwork with "artistry."

If you can cite any articles, blog entries, or posts that depict Gracie Gold as a highly artistic skater, I'd be interested to see them.

[PDilemma]

My impression is that whatever fan hype she is getting is nothing compared to what Caroline Zhang got when she was a prepubescent junior with a wonky lutz, flip, and axel.

.

I don't recall anyone suggesting that Zhang be sent to senior worlds before she tested out of juniors. Gold has never skated a senior program and right here at FSU, it is being suggested that she put two together by March and represent the U.S. at senior Worlds--when she hasn't even tested for seniors. That's a bit much. Not too mention that suggesting that she does have work to do for the second mark and that moving up to seniors is no easy task results in being labeled a "hater".

And I'm not sure why I have to prove the hype by producing a blog that calls her artistic.

[haribobo]

While these are just fabulous arguments, I didn't start this thread to have another discussion about Gracie's hype. I have no idea what that has to even do with this topic. Go start a Gracie Gold thread and post all this stuff in there...

[Vagabond]

Zhang wasn't old enough to go to Worlds before she tested out of juniors.

There are still plenty of people here on FSU bemoaning the fact that she wasn't old enough to go to Worlds in 2008, when she was a senior and the bronze medalist at U.S. Nationals.

[Mayra]

Sylvia posted a link to an article in the US Nationals forum with quotes from Denney/Frazier(going senior next year) and Simpson/Blackmer(staying junior).

Not sure if that means D/F will have another go at the JGP or try for the Senior GP.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...&postcount=162

[Sylvia]

While these are just fabulous arguments, I didn't start this thread to have another discussion about Gracie's hype. I have no idea what that has to even do with this topic. Go start a Gracie Gold thread and post all this stuff in there...

I gave in and just bumped up the Gracie Gold thread in GSD : http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...13#post3448913

(Vagabond, I think you meant to type 2008 in your post above and not 2009.)

[5Ali3]

My impression is that whatever fan hype she is getting is nothing compared to what Caroline Zhang got when she was a prepubescent junior with a wonky lutz, flip, and axel.

FWIW, my impression is the opposite: Zhang received hype in the fall of 2007 after blowing away the field at an early JGP, winning by something like 50 points. However, she was a "known quantity" with a previous reputation for squeaky jumps and lovely body positions/programs. The Junior Ladies' podium in 2007 received significant hype as the "future," in part because the 2007 Senior Ladies' podium was seen as skaters "held over" from the previous quad who were not expected to still be competing in 2010. Nagasu and Zhang were hyped as leading the U.S. ladies into Vancouver, with a made-for-TV friendship/rivalry and looks/demeanor that reminded many of a young Michelle Kwan at a time when many were looking for the "next Kwan."

Five years later (wow, it's really been five years?), I think there's more acceptance of the idea that Kwan was a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon, that we shouldn't expect another athlete to dominate the world scene for 10+ years. However, I also sense some desperation that wasn't present five years ago: okay, maybe we can't build our program around a single STAR who is a household name for over a decade, but - um - can't someone step up and stop this drought? I also sense a switch from, "if she's this good at 12, imagine what she'll be like at 16!" to "yeah, she's this good at 12, but can she keep those triples/triples past puberty?"

To the best of my recollection, I cannot recall this kind of hype about a Junior skater, especially one as "unknown" as Gold before this season. Why the hype?

Gold has outstanding jump technique. Her technical understanding of a triple toe as the back-half of a combination is textbook; she is very unusual in her correct timing of the toe-loop takeoff. She relies on timing, clean body positions, and correct use of edges/toe picks to vault herself into the air. She does not rely on quick rotation in the air. She may not have her adult body yet, but she clearly has something of an adult body - and it appears that her adult body, with its muscles and post-pubescent strength - is part of what helped her improve so drastically over the past three years. Technically, she's going to be fine unless she injures herself training a triple Axel. Artistically, she has the building blocks of flow, power, edging, and musical awareness. The rest can taught if she wants to learn - and her personality suggests she's a sponge, not a diva, and will accept both feedback and coaching. Her family is supportive in the best ways.

I think the hype about Gold is much stronger (and a bit out-of-control, honestly) on the internet than in the skating world. I sense a bit of "let's hold our breath" among those who have been on this roller coaster before. That's not to suggest that Gold isn't seen as a phenom; it's to suggest that the thought process is more like "we haven't seen someone like this in two decades and oh please skategods let's not screw this up no one say out loud what we are all thinking lets pretend shes just your typical junior ladies champion."

[PDilemma]

FWIW, my impression is the opposite: Zhang received hype in the fall of 2007 after blowing away the field at an early JGP, winning by something like 50 points. However, she was a "known quantity" with a previous reputation for squeaky jumps and lovely body positions/programs. The Junior Ladies' podium in 2007 received significant hype as the "future," in part because the 2007 Senior Ladies' podium was seen as skaters "held over" from the previous quad who were not expected to still be competing in 2010. Nagasu and Zhang were hyped as leading the U.S. ladies into Vancouver, with a made-for-TV friendship/rivalry and looks/demeanor that reminded many of a young Michelle Kwan at a time when many were looking for the "next Kwan."

Five years later (wow, it's really been five years?), I think there's more acceptance of the idea that Kwan was a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon, that we shouldn't expect another athlete to dominate the world scene for 10+ years. However, I also sense some desperation that wasn't present five years ago: okay, maybe we can't build our program around a single STAR who is a household name for over a decade, but - um - can't someone step up and stop this drought? I also sense a switch from, "if she's this good at 12, imagine what she'll be like at 16!" to "yeah, she's this good at 12, but can she keep those triples/triples past puberty?"

To the best of my recollection, I cannot recall this kind of hype about a Junior skater, especially one as "unknown" as Gold before this season. Why the hype?

Gold has outstanding jump technique. Her technical understanding of a triple toe as the back-half of a combination is textbook; she is very unusual in her correct timing of the toe-loop takeoff. She relies on timing, clean body positions, and correct use of edges/toe picks to vault herself into the air. She does not rely on quick rotation in the air. She may not have her adult body yet, but she clearly has something of an adult body - and it appears that her adult body, with its muscles and post-pubescent strength - is part of what helped her improve so drastically over the past three years. Technically, she's going to be fine unless she injures herself training a triple Axel. Artistically, she has the building blocks of flow, power, edging, and musical awareness. The rest can taught if she wants to learn - and her personality suggests she's a sponge, not a diva, and will accept both feedback and coaching. Her family is supportive in the best ways.

I think the hype about Gold is much stronger (and a bit out-of-control, honestly) on the internet than in the skating world. I sense a bit of "let's hold our breath" among those who have been on this roller coaster before. That's not to suggest that Gold isn't seen as a phenom; it's to suggest that the thought process is more like "we haven't seen someone like this in two decades and oh please skategods let's not screw this up no one say out loud what we are all thinking lets pretend shes just your typical junior ladies champion."

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

Gold may have the goods. I'm not saying she doesn't. But I also think out-of-control fan hype might not be a positive influence. And I hope your impression of the skating powers' take on this is inside info, because they need to be holding their breath and not rushing her. The notion of her being sent to senior Worlds this spring is absurd.

[Sylvia]

I've excerpted part of 5Ali3's post above and cross-posted it in the Gracie Gold thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...25#post3449025

Sylvia posted a link to an article in the US Nationals forum with quotes from Denney/Frazier(going senior next year) and Simpson/Blackmer(staying junior).

Not sure if that means D/F will have another go at the JGP or try for the Senior GP.
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...&postcount=162

For those who don't have access to Kiss and Cry, this is what I posted:

This Junior Pairs FS article [at Golden Skate] mentions that Denney/Frazier "are looking forward to competing on the senior level next season" [nationally, I assume], while Simpson is quoted as saying "We [she and Blackmer] are staying junior... We already decided before coming here."

ETA: Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (5th in Junior Pairs at Easterns; 4th of 5 teams at the Youth Olympics) are also JGP age-eligible in pairs.

[Triple Butz]

My impression is that whatever fan hype she is getting is nothing compared to what Caroline Zhang got when she was a prepubescent junior with a wonky lutz, flip, and axel.

Gold doesn't have the technique problems Zhang had, and, at her age, she's unlikely to go through another major growth spurt.

I agree the CZ hype was just as over the top, but for me the comparison doesn't quite work for many reasons. 1)The ISU had not yet come up with the "e" (and later "!") marks for erroneous jump take-offs when Zhang blew away the junior field. 2)UR calls began to get more and more severe as she entered senior competitions 3)We had 3 spots and were comfortable 4)We had a recent World Champ as a team member and very few predicted she would fall so far and so quickly. 5)Zhang was younger and we figured she had two years to fix her juniorish qualities while she skated in the shadow of Meissner. (None of which happened of course )

It seems most of us US fans are DESPERATE for a star and, so far, Gold is checking all of the right boxes to score well in this current system. I'm certainly in no rush to hype her, but you can't totally ignore the prospects. I assume she'll go to Jr Worlds and let's see how she handles herself there.

[BigB08822]

I was one of the people asking if they could send her to Senior Worlds but I was only being half serious. Besides, that isn't a comment about Gold being so good that I think she can win so much as "can we please send someone to Worlds who is consistent and lands jumps so we may actually regain 3 spots!" I think a lot of her hype is just people having had enough of US ladies skating being 2nd rate and without Gold it looks like we will continue to be on the outside looking in while Japan and Russia take over.

[mysticchic]

Well Gracie's JGP score is good enough for 9th in ISU's season's best. So depending on what the criteria is for GP invitiations, and her placing at Jr Worlds (if she is picked), she could get 2 assignments for the GP next year. But let's see how the Sr ladie's do! Alissa might surpise everyone this week!

[UDelpairs2012]

If Gracie Gold medals at Jr Worlds they should send her to worlds....FSU please dont kill me