Canadian Pairs 2012

[NorthernDancers]

A problem with the Canadian fed? No.

M-T/M made a major error in the short program at Nationals, then had a disastrous long program. I expect they will bounce back next year.

Yes, they had a very unfortunate nationals. Others had their best outing of the season. Therefore the results. That being said, I do wonder about what's going on with them and Skate Canada. It makes no sense to not send the 2 teams best positioned for success at world's. They should be going based on their season of results and International ranking. Canada would have a chance at 3 spots for 2013 at home in the pre-Olympic year. The chance of that happening right now is almost non-existent. MT/M are great ambassadors for the sport and for Canada. SC made 4CC a skate-off for the ladies. That's the very least they could do in pairs. They would have been even better to send D/R and MT/M to world's, and D/R, D/W, and L/S to 4CC. That would have been the best decision for all the skaters, their reputations long term, and potentially future world spots. So, yes, I do wonder to what's up.

[flowerpower]

Yes, they had a very unfortunate nationals. Others had their best outing of the season. Therefore the results. That being said, I do wonder about what's going on with them and Skate Canada. It makes no sense to not send the 2 teams best positioned for success at world's. They should be going based on their season of results and International ranking. Canada would have a chance at 3 spots for 2013 at home in the pre-Olympic year. The chance of that happening right now is almost non-existent. MT/M are great ambassadors for the sport and for Canada. SC made 4CC a skate-off for the ladies. That's the very least they could do in pairs. They would have been even better to send D/R and MT/M to world's, and D/R, D/W, and L/S to 4CC. That would have been the best decision for all the skaters, their reputations long term, and potentially future world spots. So, yes, I do wonder to what's up.

I don't see anything being "up" at all, because I think any other course of action on SC's part would have brought a raft of problems of its own.

Look at all of the angst over the ladies skate-off at 4CC. From the interviews it's clear Amelie was upset about it, Cynthia was upset about it; overall it was not a positive situation for skaters' morale. People within the sport can nurse resentments over that sort of thing for years, which isn't productive. So although SC was within their rights to ask for that skateoff, I think SC prefers to avoid departing from Nationals standings in choosing the Worlds team.

Since D/R and MT/M (at least on paper) would have given Canada the best shot at 3 spots for 2013, I'm sure those are the two pairs SC would ideally have wanted on the Worlds team. But when a pair (MT/M) has a disastrous nationals and places fourth, I think it's very tough to name them to the World team without creating a lot of dissension.

A skateoff (between MT/M, D/W, L/S?) at 4CC would have muddied the waters even further, unless MT/M beat the other two Canadian teams. What if L/S was the top Canadian team at 4CC, just slightly edging D/W? Plus I understand that D/R badly wanted to go to 4CC, so they would have had to be denied a spot. A huge potential mess. Not a road any fed would want to go down, IMO.

[NorthernDancers]

I don't see anything being "up" at all, because I think any other course of action on SC's part would have brought a raft of problems of its own.

Look at all of the angst over the ladies skate-off at 4CC. From the interviews it's clear Amelie was upset about it, Cynthia was upset about it; overall it was not a positive situation for skaters' morale. People within the sport can nurse resentments over that sort of thing for years, which isn't productive. So although SC was within their rights to ask for that skateoff, I think SC prefers to avoid departing from Nationals standings in choosing the Worlds team.

Since D/R and MT/M (at least on paper) would have given Canada the best shot at 3 spots for 2013, I'm sure those are the two pairs SC would ideally have wanted on the Worlds team. But when a pair (MT/M) has a disastrous nationals and places fourth, I think it's very tough to name them to the World team without creating a lot of dissension.

A skateoff (between MT/M, D/W, L/S?) at 4CC would have muddied the waters even further, unless MT/M beat the other two Canadian teams. What if L/S was the top Canadian team at 4CC, just slightly edging D/W? Plus I understand that D/R badly wanted to go to 4CC, so they would have had to be denied a spot. A huge potential mess. Not a road any fed would want to go down, IMO.

I'm not sure there would have been a big struggle if MT/M were sent to Worlds. Most reasonable people can understand that every team has a bad day at the office at some point. From a consistency perspective, MT/M have had a very good couple of years. Not always perfect, but definitely in the same league as D/R, who are also not always perfect. Both teams are on a different level than L/S and D/W. Those have been the international results. That's clear. Skate Canada is completely missing an opportunity to have 3 teams at Worlds next year, and at the same time setting up D/W for a much harder time next year internationally. Based on the 4CC results, D/W will be hard pressed to finish in the top 10 in the World. This is not a knock to D/W. They are a brand new team, he is just out of Junior, and they need some time to develop. I'm reminded of the time Cynthia Phaneuf won Canadians as a very young girl, and her coach decided to send her only to the Junior Worlds for the sake of her own development. We need some more of that thinking here. I would think that all of these teams would understand that D/R and MT/M today are best placed to earn 3 spots to Worlds, and this could benefit an additional team next year, at worlds at home. It's never guaranteed, but D/R and MT/M are the best chance right now.


And just adding for the Amelie/Cynthia situation, there was a whole lot less data to support a skate-off for these 2. Amelie has been quite consistent over the year, and it appeared like favouritism towards Cynthia. Amelie should have gotten the spot right away based on all her results of the season. For the pairs, this was a very different situation. You had a normally very consistent team that just missed the GPF, and who normally scores well above the other 2 teams, have a melt-down at Nationals. In addition, you had 2 other teams that normally do not score well internationally have very good skates. It's Nationals that is the anomoly. So the question becomes do you make decisions based only on Nationals results, or do you take into consideration the broader needs and season results. The ladies results were not an anomoly compared to the season results, but Skate Canada still couldn't decide. The pairs results were an anomoly.

[julieann]

I'm not sure there would have been a big struggle if MT/M were sent to Worlds. Most reasonable people can understand that every team has a bad day at the office at some point. From a consistency perspective, MT/M have had a very good couple of years. Not always perfect, but definitely in the same league as D/R, who are also not always perfect. Both teams are on a different level than L/S and D/W. Those have been the international results. That's clear. Skate Canada is completely missing an opportunity to have 3 teams at Worlds next year, and at the same time setting up D/W for a much harder time next year internationally. Based on the 4CC results, D/W will be hard pressed to finish in the top 10 in the World. This is not a knock to D/W. They are a brand new team, he is just out of Junior, and they need some time to develop. I'm reminded of the time Cynthia Phaneuf won Canadians as a very young girl, and her coach decided to send her only to the Junior Worlds for the sake of her own development. We need some more of that thinking here. I would think that all of these teams would understand that D/R and MT/M today are best placed to earn 3 spots to Worlds, and this could benefit an additional team next year, at worlds at home. It's never guaranteed, but D/R and MT/M are the best chance right now.


And just adding for the Amelie/Cynthia situation, there was a whole lot less data to support a skate-off for these 2. Amelie has been quite consistent over the year, and it appeared like favouritism towards Cynthia. Amelie should have gotten the spot right away based on all her results of the season. For the pairs, this was a very different situation. You had a normally very consistent team that just missed the GPF, and who normally scores well above the other 2 teams, have a melt-down at Nationals. In addition, you had 2 other teams that normally do not score well internationally have very good skates. It's Nationals that is the anomoly. So the question becomes do you make decisions based only on Nationals results, or do you take into consideration the broader needs and season results. The ladies results were not an anomoly compared to the season results, but Skate Canada still couldn't decide. The pairs results were an anomoly.

At this point I think either D/W or MT/M can do really well or implode and do bad. There is no reason not to give D/W a chance they earned when the alternates are not that much better.

[JasperBoy]

Repatriate Mervin Tran

[CanuckSk8r]

I'm a believer in using National placings to determine the World Team. If a skater or team has a disasterous Nationals, it's unfortunate, but part of sport. By juggling things around, based on who *may* have the best shot at placing, its just another way of trying to determine the competition on paper rather than on the ice.

Also, if future World/Olympic Teams are determined on a compilation of past skates, where does the line get drawn? One season? Two? An Olympic cycle? The arguments would be endless. I like that Nationals is the showdown for the next level.

[NorthernDancers]

At this point I think either D/W or MT/M can do really well or implode and do bad. There is no reason not to give D/W a chance they earned when the alternates are not that much better.

Here's the challenge: the alternative IS much better. D/W and MT/M are not the same by any stretch of the imagination. MT/M have some of the most powerful lifts in the world, and have proven their cred on the international stage. The degree of difficulty in their programs is substantially higher than D/W. The ONLY time MT/M have truly imploded to finish behind D/W or L/S is at Nationals this year. They just missed the GPF. Generally they are very consistent - not perfect, but consistent. I really like D (don't know much about him), and I really think this is a horrible decision for them to have to skate at the international level before they are ready for prime time. They just are not yet ready for prime time. They need some space and time away from the public eye to get their elements and difficulty. 4CC was not a good outing for them. Maybe next year or the year after they will be ready. But it will be an achievement to finish in the top 10 in the world this year. That would be "really well" for them. For MT/M, really well would be top 5 in the world.

I do understand that generally Nationals should determine who goes to worlds. That is usually what happens. In this case, that decision will have repercussions for next year, which is highly unfortunate. I would LOVE to see 3 Canadian teams at Worlds next year on London. We have no chance of that happening with the current candidates.

[julieann]

Here's the challenge: the alternative IS much better. D/W and MT/M are not the same by any stretch of the imagination. MT/M have some of the most powerful lifts in the world, and have proven their cred on the international stage. The degree of difficulty in their programs is substantially higher than D/W. The ONLY time MT/M have truly imploded to finish behind D/W or L/S is at Nationals this year. They just missed the GPF. Generally they are very consistent - not perfect, but consistent. I really like D (don't know much about him), and I really think this is a horrible decision for them to have to skate at the international level before they are ready for prime time. They just are not yet ready for prime time. They need some space and time away from the public eye to get their elements and difficulty. 4CC was not a good outing for them. Maybe next year or the year after they will be ready. But it will be an achievement to finish in the top 10 in the world this year. That would be "really well" for them. For MT/M, really well would be top 5 in the world. I do understand that generally Nationals should determine who goes to worlds. That is usually what happens. In this case, that decision will have repercussions for next year, which is highly unfortunate. I would LOVE to see 3 Canadian teams at Worlds next year on London. We have no chance of that happening with the current candidates.

MT/M lifts need work, there are ok but they are the same lifts not only from year to year but they are repeated in the program - absolutely no variety.

For MT/M to finish anywhere near 5th they need to be behind S/S, V/T, P/T, K/S and B/L, not to mention, beat S/H, D/R, D/C, M/B, T/T…etc…that’s a tough sell for me. Could they do really well and beat some of these teams? Yes, but so can D/W. Can both team implode and finish out of the top 10? Yes. If MT/M were sent to worlds, over D/W especially if they skated as bad as they did in China, They would have no shot at 10th or better, don’t forget last year they were only 8th.

It’s not like Stolbova and Klimov are being sent because Volosozhar and Trankov had a bad nationals, that would be silly but the Canadian teams are different, MT/M could have broke from the pack this year and really done well but they didn’t, D/W have.

This year MT/M did well by getting two bronze medals in the GPF but failed to make into the GPF and had a bad nationals. Last year they got silvers on the Grand Prix and 6th in the finals but look at all the top names that were injured or couldn't compete. They were 5th at 4CC and 8th at Worlds. They did win nationals that year but they only had two pair that could have really beat them, and for one of the pair it was only their 3rd competition.

MT/M's medals seem to be impressive until you look deeper. They really aren't as good as some make them out to be but they can get much better in time. Jessica Dube with all her pair experience earn her place against a pair who isn't any better or who don’t seem to be advancing as much as they should be.

Dube is a 3 time national champ, won 7 GP medals, 4th in the GPF, Worlds bronze medal, silver at 4CC, 6th at the Olympics...granted she is only 1/2 of the pair and he only has silver in jr nationals but he can and should get better with her quicker than two people who haven't yet achieved all she has.

You also have no guarantee that with MT/M you will have 3 teams in London anymore than you have with D/W.

[NorthernDancers]

MT/M lifts need work, there are ok but they are the same lifts not only from year to year but they are repeated in the program - absolutely no variety.

For MT/M to finish anywhere near 5th they need to be behind S/S, V/T, P/T, K/S and B/L, not to mention, beat S/H, D/R, D/C, M/B, T/T…etc…that’s a tough sell for me. Could they do really well and beat some of these teams? Yes, but so can D/W. Can both team implode and finish out of the top 10? Yes. If MT/M were sent to worlds, over D/W especially if they skated as bad as they did in China, They would have no shot at 10th or better, don’t forget last year they were only 8th.

It’s not like Stolbova and Klimov are being sent because Volosozhar and Trankov had a bad nationals, that would be silly but the Canadian teams are different, MT/M could have broke from the pack this year and really done well but they didn’t, D/W have.

This year MT/M did well by getting two bronze medals in the GPF but failed to make into the GPF and had a bad nationals. Last year they got silvers on the Grand Prix and 6th in the finals but look at all the top names that were injured or couldn't compete. They were 5th at 4CC and 8th at Worlds. They did win nationals that year but they only had two pair that could have really beat them, and for one of the pair it was only their 3rd competition.

MT/M's medals seem to be impressive until you look deeper. They really aren't as good as some make them out to be but they can get much better in time. Jessica Dube with all her pair experience earn her place against a pair who isn't any better or who don’t seem to be advancing as much as they should be.

Dube is a 3 time national champ, won 7 GP medals, 4th in the GPF, Worlds bronze medal, silver at 4CC, 6th at the Olympics...granted she is only 1/2 of the pair and he only has silver in jr nationals but he can and should get better with her quicker than two people who haven't yet achieved all she has.

You also have no guarantee that with MT/M you will have 3 teams in London anymore than you have with D/W.

I guess we agree to disagree on this, then. I think D/W are highly over rated. Dube is very good, and has great international experience, but as a team D/W are not ready for prime time. Their programs do not have the technical value. They cannot yet do the big tricks. There is no benefit to push them farther than they are ready.

MT/M have made tremendous improvements since last year. To just miss GPF with a tougher crowd is testament to that. Really, it's D/R and MT/M that could change places in podium spots on any given day. Their marks internationally have been very close. And last year they finished side by side at Worlds, just not quite high enough, unfortunately. The strength and ice coverage of the lifts are tremendous. Do we want to see something new? Sure. But the quality is certainly there. Their triple twist is very high most days. They tend to struggle on some side-by-side jumps, but have also made improvements there this year. Their programs are light years ahead of last year in terms of their choreography, stroking and steps. They have had a very solid international showing.

You are correct that there are no guarantees on the 3 spots. But we absolutely won't have 3 spots with D/W. We might have had 3 spots with MT/M. But I guess we'll never know.

[julieann]

I guess we agree to disagree on this, then. I think D/W are highly over rated. Dube is very good, and has great international experience, but as a team D/W are not ready for prime time. Their programs do not have the technical value. They cannot yet do the big tricks. There is no benefit to push them farther than they are ready.

MT/M have made tremendous improvements since last year. To just miss GPF with a tougher crowd is testament to that. Really, it's D/R and MT/M that could change places in podium spots on any given day. Their marks internationally have been very close. And last year they finished side by side at Worlds, just not quite high enough, unfortunately. The strength and ice coverage of the lifts are tremendous. Do we want to see something new? Sure. But the quality is certainly there. Their triple twist is very high most days. They tend to struggle on some side-by-side jumps, but have also made improvements there this year. Their programs are light years ahead of last year in terms of their choreography, stroking and steps. They have had a very solid international showing.

You are correct that there are no guarantees on the 3 spots. But we absolutely won't have 3 spots with D/W. We might have had 3 spots with MT/M. But I guess we'll never know.

I don't see where D/W have been over rated, they simply haven't been skating together long enough. I think they have done well at their competitions and very well at nationals when it counted. If they can't yet do the big tricks and aren't ready for "prime time" but they got silver what does that say about MT/T who got 4th?

I think saying MT/M showed tremendous improvements maybe stretching it a bit. Even though they won the bronze in China she still fell twice. They were two points behind D/R in making it to the GPF because of those mistakes.

D/W did pretty well in the early season especially for a new team but a guy just up from juniors. Certainly not as good as MT/M - medal wise - but they have been together for 3 seasons more than D/W. MT/M did poorly at nationals where D/W excelled. D/W got 8th at their very first 4CC, MT/M got 9th the first time they went.

I certainly wouldn't want to replace one team for another team who "might" have a chance at three spots. You may as well just send the team who earned the spot.

[Proustable]

Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.

[NorthernDancers]

Ehh, I think Phaneuf and Mt/M will be stronger skaters as a result of missing this chance in the end, to be honest. And since neither of them really earned it, I have a hard time falling behind giving it to either of them.

Definitely agree that they'll come out stronger. MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts. Should be interesting. And I hope they can keep working on the in between choreography. That was such a nice improvement this year.

As for Cynthia, I agree she did not earn the spot to world's at Canadians, or over the season. I hope she can find her groove back with Orser.

[yfbg722]

MT/M have only been together 2 seasons, I believe, and I'm sure they will come ready to fight for a spot. Above it was noted they are working on a quad twist and new lifts.

MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol

[NorthernDancers]

MT/M have been together 3 years. This was their third nationals. They placed 5th their first year together, 1st last year, 4th this year.

I believe the quad MT mentioned working this year on in an interview was a throw, not the twist.

Thanks to Sui/Han, maybe they'll need both lol

Wow....time does fly. I had to google to find pictures from that first season. I didn't even remember what they did then.

I love stats. So here is my analysis of international results since January last year to now, and why I think Skate Canada needs to give their heads a shake if they want even the possibility of 3 teams in London next year.

D/R:
4CC in 2011: 181.79
Worlds in 2011: 173.03

1st GP this year: 174.84 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
2nd GP this year: 176.62
GPF this year: 170.43
4CC this year: 171.76

The 4CC results seem to be an anomoly for them. If we remove that, D/R have not improved significantly season over season, based on these results. It's all within a 3 points of last year's Worlds results. If we leave in the top score, it only makes matters worse.


MT/M:
4CC in 2011: 166.22
Words in 2011: 163.17

1st GP this year: 177.43 (in US)
2nd GP this year: 172.04 (just barely missing the GPF)

Based on these results, on average, MT/M have raised the game by around 10 points, which is real improvement in my mind. I have to think these results would improve further had they gone to 4CC or Worlds. Their assignments were early in the season. They are very evenly matched with D/R.


D/W:
1st GP this year: 158.44 (in Canada, a hometown crowd)
2nd GP this year: 150.68
4CC this year: 154.79

Based on these results, and compared to the other two, regardless of the results at Nationals, I am very hard pressed to buy any argument that places this team above MT/M or D/R, or sees them as some kind of even match. Over the course of the season this year, they are about 20 points on average lower than the other teams internationally. I'm sure they will improve. But right now, this is where they are at.


L/S:
4CC last year: 171.73

GP this year: 153.96
4CC this year: 158.44

This team has always struggled with consistency. I really like their programs this year, and I find them the most innovative of the Canadian teams, and not to mention a ton of fun, but internationally they have a habit of struggling. They had a good skate at 4CC last year. But since then they are back to some rough patches. Furthermore, it was reported she had a concussion. Yikes! Right now, I think D/W and L/S are evenly matched, but significantly behind the other 2 teams.

[flowerpower]

^
So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.

[lavenderblue]

This season, M-T/M won bronze in two GP events, and lost the tiebreaker with D/R for that GPF berth by a matter of points. D/W finished 5th and 6th in their GP events. M-T/M had an abnormally disastrous outing of two difficult programs at Nationals. D/W had mostly clean outings of two less-difficult programs at Nationals, thereby benefiting from the implosion of the others. We're not comparing apples with apples here simply on a current-season basis, regardless of progress or otherwise from the previous year.

I'm not predicting what will be or what would have been, nor am I putting forward an argument for or against the skate-off notion, but it strikes me as inaccurate to characterize the results at this particularly sloppy Nationals (for teams in addition to M-T/M -- it was brutal out there) as reflecting what would likely happen the other 95% of the time.

[julieann]

Stats are fun, however.......you can't compare scores from teams, different judges, competitions and seasons (of all things) and expect to base them in any reality.

So seemingly you are arguing that we can disregard Nationals results, and choose the Worlds team (in each discipline?) based on past international scores. Which competitions would we include, and how far back would we go?

If that's the case, then the fact that Amelie edged out Cynthia at Nationals is irrelevant, and people should be happy that Cynthia was given the opportunity for a skate-off , since if we go back and compare their international histories over the years, we'd conclude that Cynthia has greater potential, based on past successes.

Maybe we should put it to a vote on FSU, we can make it a poll

[NorthernDancers]

Normally Nationals should be the decider, especially when teams or skaters marks are in close, reasonable range over the course of the season. That's why I didn't understand the skate-off for ladies. Amelie has come ahead all season, and the marks have been close for awhile. There is very little impact internationally with one vs the other going to world's. Amelie won Nationals and should go to world's.

With pairs, as the stats show, there is an average 20 point spread here. Nationals was a fluke. And there is a lot on the line for Canada numbers next year at a home world's. There are no guarantees, but your chances are much higher with MT/M. Why would you not send your best teams? I'd call this an exception to the rule for the good of future opportunities for more teams.

[Proustable]

Lets use Mt/M's scores for the entire of the 2010/2011 season.

Skate Canada: 170.92
Skate America: 175.48
GPF: 169.57
4CC: 166.22
Worlds: 163.17

AVERAGE SCORE: 169.07

This paints a far different picture. Firstly, their much vaunted improvement is closer to five points, not ten.

Secondly, they peak early and go downhill - which contradicts your conclusion that at 4CC and Worlds the scores would increase. Last season, they decreased. If their performance at Nationals was anything to go by, one might be hardpressed to demonstrate how they'd improve. Moreover, this season, using the scores you posted (and even throwing in their Nationals result, which has Nationals Inflation, as usual), we see the same downhill slide.

So, is the gamble worth it? Depends. Do you think sending Dornbush to 4CC over Armin was the right decision?

[Jenifer]

I think the situation would have been different if MT-M had finished third instead of fourth. If they had been third, it would have been justifiable to have them skate off with DW for the second worlds spot at 4CC. As fourth place finishers, MT/M did not earn the right to even compete at 4CC. To assign them there they would have had to keep L/S (who finished on the podium at 4CC last season, ahead of MT-M) at home. D/R were quite adamant about wanting to skate at 4CC. The only way to help MT-M here would be to very plainly screw over DR or LS. MT/M are a decent team, but 8th in the world/7th in GP standings isn't good/promising enough, IMO, to justify screwing over other teams with legitimate, if lesser, competition histories.