Team competition at Sochi

[starryxskies]

Japan would have to make the LP to need to switch anyone at all. With no pair team and a very weak dance team, that is sort of unlikely.

If this is anything like how the WTT is, their men and ladies alone would take them to the LP. Both will be top 3. They have a pairs team - Taka/Tran (the Canadian). If he gets his visa sorted out he'll be able to compete for Japan. They're sitting out this season due to injury but they're promising.

[Sylvia]

They have a pairs team - Taka/Tran (the Canadian). If he gets his visa sorted out he'll be able to compete for Japan.

I don't think it's that simple.

See this discussion thread from earlier this year: Mervin Tran Aiming to Obtain Japanese Citizenship

[starryxskies]

I don't think it's that simple.

But you shouldn't completely rule it out. JSF is gonna fight for it with all they have, and skating is huge in Japan.

[NadineWhite]

I can't imagine splitting any event unless you either had two very evenly matched skaters/teams and wanted to lessen the burden on each one (I could see this happening with D&R and MT&M for Canada at full strength), one skater is very consistently better at the FS and the other at the SP (if the team event had existed in 2006, the US might have done this with Evan and Johnny), or the team can actually afford to throw points away.

I can't, for example, see this happening with D&W and the Shibs as of right now. The two teams are not at all evenly matched. And the US cannot afford to throw away the points they'd lose from having the shibs skate one program. In the US, I'd expect the only way it would happen is if we end up with two closely matched men or if another pair improves to the point that they regularly beat D&C in at least segments of the competition. But, the USA being the USA, they will probably just send the national champ in each discipline.

Canada will absolutely not switch out in Men. In Ladies, even if they have someone to switch out, every other lady is a bad bet right now. In dance, I'd be shocked if they left any of V&M's potential points on the table even with how strong W&P are. In pairs, it's a possibility if MT&M and D&R go back and forth during the season.

Russia will likely have only one man. Unless K&S look stronger next year, they will probably want V&T to do the whole thing although V&T may want the break. In dance, it is possible although they'll most likely be pushing B&S for a medal by then (unless things switch with I&K) so they'll be hoping the two teams aren't scoring at the same level. I could see them switching in ladies depending on who is on the team and who looks strong next year.

France really has only one option in Dance and men. Pairs is a bit of a mess. And Ladies they may have two options.

Italy has one option in Ladies, Dance, and Pairs. And the men are a mess.

I'd expect that Russia, the USA, and Italy will gain a lot of points on the other two in Ladies. It'll depend on the day who comes out the best. In men, Canada will have a huge advantage. The USA, Russia, and Canada are all sort of a question mark. And Italy is in even worse shape. In pairs, Russia should gain some points over Canada who will gain some over the USA and Italy, who will gain a bunch over France. In dance, the US and Canada will most likely gain a bunch over France and Russia who will gain a bit more over Italy.

My guess is that it will be difficult, but not impossible, for France and Italy to medal. The USA, Canada, and Russia will be the favorites to medal but the majority of team members will be fairly inconsistent.

Right now, I'm more worried about Men for the USA. A healthy D&C have a very good shot at a top 10 worlds level score. None of the US men are consistent enough to feel comfortable with what they will deliver in a team situation.

Interesting analysis, Theatregirl122

In retrospect I'm thinking France has as good a chance for the bronze medal as anyone else. IIRC they've got a strong top 5 dance team, and their pairs team is almost as good as D/C, they've already handily beaten D/S, but not C/S. And their top 2 ladies skaters' are on the rise, not as good as the USA, but better than Canada's #2 lady. And then of course there's the men, Joubert is still a top 5 skater, and Amodio not far behind, equal depending on the day.

As for Italy, I totally forgot about Carolina Kostner, she should put up a great score. And I'm not too familiar with their pairs/mens/dance, but IIRC their pairs & dance are top 10, however their leading man retired recently, the one that could do quads and was charming on the ice.

Hmmm, I really think it will be close for gold because I'm not as confident that Russia will easily win gold over Canada. Yep, they got the edge on pairs, but Canada's got the edge on both men & dance! And if Joannie Rochette comes back, or Osmond (whom has it all) keeps skating the way she has been then she'll put up a high score for ladies as well. Whereas Russia only truly has the edge in two disciplines, pairs, and mens to a lesser degree, depending on how they score Zhenya against Patrick? But that's it, dance is top 5 for them, but ladies is the biggest question mark. They are *unproven* in this regard. Even though I still prefer Adelina over Liza, each one is still young and growing, and anything can happen. That said, I would definitely have Liza skate the FS, Adelina the SP. I'll know more after 2013 Worlds, that's where I want to see how they do against Osmond.

As for the USA, we'll be lucky to get bronze, no more no less. Dance is a shoo in, but the rest is literally up in the air! I'm not as confident that Couglin is just going to come back sashaying in with no problems, big question mark there, unfortunately, because before the injury he & Caydee were on the rise, slowly but steadily riding that ladder up the international circuit, but now that's all gone. My hope is that Castelli & Schnapir keep their momentum going because I think they are just as good as D/C. It's the second pair that concerns me...


ETA: I admit how the Olympic Team Event shakes out is still unsure to me, that's why I'm most looking forward to the *first* time WORLD TEAM EVENT this coming Worlds, that should give us all a good idea of how the Olympic Team Event will go. Jmho. The one thing I'm sure of is it will be nothing like the WTT, that's more of a cheesefest, not a serious event like Worlds & the Olympics.

[starryxskies]

Hmmm, I really think it will be close for gold because I'm not as confident that Russia will easily win gold over Canada. Yep, they got the edge on pairs, but Canada's got the edge on both men & dance! And if Joannie Rochette comes back, or Osmond (whom has it all) keeps skating the way she has been then she'll put up a high score for ladies as well. Whereas Russia only truly has the edge in two disciplines, pairs, and mens to a lesser degree, depending on how they score Zhenya against Patrick? But that's it, dance is top 5 for them, but ladies is the biggest question mark. They are *unproven* in this regard. Even though I still prefer Adelina over Liza, each one is still young and growing, and anything can happen. That said, I would definitely have Liza skate the FS, Adelina the SP. I'll know more after 2013 Worlds, that's where I want to see how they do against Osmond.

I really doubt Zhenya is going to even compete in the teams event at all. He can care less about that. He's only going to Sochi to claim his Men's Singles gold medal. He can't afford to injure himself during teams or even tire himself out. It really depends on who's the bigger boss: Zhenya vs Russian Fed. If the Fed makes him skate, say goodbye to Mens gold, maybe even podium if he gets unlucky. So he better pray to the skating gods that whoever goes to 2013 Worlds gets them their second spot.

[NadineWhite]

Oh please of course he's going to skate the Team Event. End of story. Period.

***note: in fact I recall how interested he was in the first time ever 2013 Worlds Team Event***

[Sylvia]

There is no 2013 Worlds Team event.

The third World Team Trophy will be held in Japan after 2013 Worlds.

[NadineWhite]

Ay yi yi *hits self on head*, I honestly thought I read that there was going to finally be a World Team Event. Darn!

I thought I read somewhere they wanted to test it out there first before the Olympic Team Event. Silly me. I guess it's on to the Olympic then, prepared or not, first time ever!

[starryxskies]

I read somewhere they were going to test it out at the youth olympics first, but I don't remember where I read that and cannot find it either so take this with a grain of salt.

I'm sure Zhenya would want to compete for Russia because he's the skating god and Russians love him but he's definitely going to be cautious about it. I truly believe he's not competing at Worlds (last time I read) because he doesn't want to risk injury and wants to keep the mystery before facing his Japanese + Chan competition before Olympics. They all fear him and if he doesn't perform at Worlds, he'll lose that edge he has over them. I'm just saying there's a good chance he'll withdraw from the Sochi team event. Remember his goal is Sochi - Mens Singles.

[NadineWhite]

Btw, anyone that thinks a skater will pass up the opportunity to earn that once-in-a-lifetime Olympic Medal, no matter if in the Team Event is a fool. Now the skater has *2* opportunities, not just one, to earn that much coveted Olympic Medal. So if s/he earns it in the Team Event, then the individual event will be less stressful, however the opposite is true as well. In fact I think the skater will be more stressed out if s/he doesn't earn it in the the Team Event. Jmho.

Anyhow, enough, I've talked too much about it already (easy to see how much I'm looking forward to it though)!!!!

[julieann]

Btw, anyone that thinks a skater will pass up the opportunity to earn that once-in-a-lifetime Olympic Medal, no matter if in the Team Event is a fool. Now the skater has *2* opportunities, not just one, to earn that much coveted Olympic Medal. So if s/he earns it in the Team Event, then the individual event will be less stressful, however the opposite is true as well. In fact I think the skater will be more stressed out if s/he doesn't earn it in the the Team Event. Jmho.

Anyhow, enough, I've talked too much about it already (easy to see how much I'm looking forward to it though)!!!!

I agree with you, I don't know of any athlete who would give up the chance to win TWO Olympic medals. No one can rely on wining gold in an event even if they're the favorites. Illness, accidents or injuries can happen and then they would loose both?!? I doubt any skater is (or should be) that confident.

[Theatregirl1122]

If this is anything like how the WTT is, their men and ladies alone would take them to the LP. Both will be top 3. They have a pairs team - Taka/Tran (the Canadian). If he gets his visa sorted out he'll be able to compete for Japan. They're sitting out this season due to injury but they're promising.

But it's not anything like the WTT. The WTT allows two men and two ladies. Which makes a rather drastic difference for Japan. The WTT also allows Takahashi and Tran to compete. If they could compete at the Olympics, Japan would have a good shot. But right now it is highly unlikely that will happen. Sure, Japan will be competing very hard, but considering the fact that you get points for your finish rather than tabulating the total scores, I doubt even two first place finishes could make up for the fact that they will be last in pairs (if they can put anyone on the ice at all) and near the bottom in dance.


I would expect that, provided Plushenko is on the Russian Olympic team, there is a 0% chance he will not compete the team event. Please remember that, so long as the team has at least one entry in the discipline, only the members of the Olympic team in their individual events can compete in the team competition. If Plush is the sole Russian entrant in the mens field, which he very well may be, he will have no choice but to compete in the team event otherwise Russia will forfeit a team medal. If Russia has two spots in mens, he may not compete. But if they have one spot, he will have no choice.

[leafygreens]

Why can't the alternates stay in the Olympic village? They can't fit in 10-20 more people? Dumb.

[Vash01]

I'm actually looking forward to the team competition; I think it could be a great addition to the sport, if its done right.

I think it's a great addition even if it does not look right at the first attempt. Like any new thing, there will be some hiccups, some mistakes, and some outrageously silly things, but it could develop into a great event at the Olympics and worlds.

[starryxskies]

But it's not anything like the WTT. The WTT allows two men and two ladies. Which makes a rather drastic difference for Japan. The WTT also allows Takahashi and Tran to compete. If they could compete at the Olympics, Japan would have a good shot. But right now it is highly unlikely that will happen. Sure, Japan will be competing very hard, but considering the fact that you get points for your finish rather than tabulating the total scores, I doubt even two first place finishes could make up for the fact that they will be last in pairs (if they can put anyone on the ice at all) and near the bottom in dance.


I would expect that, provided Plushenko is on the Russian Olympic team, there is a 0% chance he will not compete the team event. Please remember that, so long as the team has at least one entry in the discipline, only the members of the Olympic team in their individual events can compete in the team competition. If Plush is the sole Russian entrant in the mens field, which he very well may be, he will have no choice but to compete in the team event otherwise Russia will forfeit a team medal. If Russia has two spots in mens, he may not compete. But if they have one spot, he will have no choice.

I was saying Japan will make it through to LP. You're talking about countries as a whole and 5 make it through. Please don't tell me you think Italy will make it through over Japan. Even with only 1 man and 1 lady, Japan still tops all the countries with the 2012 WTT results if we use the 2014 Sochi placement point system (1-10). Very close with Canada and the US, but they still top it nonetheless. There's tons of wiggle room for them to still be top 5. With Tran, we'll see when we see. It's controversial so I wouldn't even touch up upon it. Last time I heard, the Liberal Democratic party was supporting Tran.

Countries are allowed to participate with just 3 disciplines, not sure if you know. So they won't really be "forfeiting" so to speak, just disadvantaging themselves.
The thing is Zhenya already has an olympic gold. Competing in Sochi, he wants the mens title and men's gold. 2 olympic golds is out of the question if he participates in the team event (which is held before men's singles). He really only has the stamina to go at 100% for 1 competition at 31 years old. With how deep the Men's field is atm, he'll need his 100%. There's the possibility that he won't even podium if he exerts himself too much. That's basically what I'm trying to say and I truly believe his priority is the Men's gold. With that, I'm just not gonna be surprised if he doesn't do team event, this man won't even compete at 2013 Worlds to get that 2nd spot for Russia.

[miffy]

Can Japan put together a new pair team? Surely the jumps wouldn't be a problem, just the lifts...

[gkelly]

Can Japan put together a new pair team? Surely the jumps wouldn't be a problem, just the lifts...

And the death spiral and the pair spin and the unison on all the side-by-side elements and skating.

Double or triple twist lift is required in the short program. I'm not sure that two skaters who have never done pairs before could master a double twist in a few months.

No doubt two singles skaters could go out and skate a program together with attempts at pair elements, but the results would probably not be pretty.

[skatak]

only need to find a partner for Fumie !

[Vash01]

Can Tran get Japanese citizenship before the Olympics? That would be the easiest way. It may not be a dual citizenship, but he could do what Yuko did in reverse.

[Sylvia]

See this discussion thread from earlier this year: Mervin Tran Aiming to Obtain Japanese Citizenship