Team competition at Sochi

[kwanfan1818]

Exactly. Neither or both might be equally unwanted, but could be USFS's decision. There's no official guarantee for the team event, unless the discipline has only one participant, and USFS doesn't skip that discipline. (Since the US is in the medal hunt, it's not likely that they'd skip one.)

[NadineWhite]

one thing's for sure the team event is going to be the most interesting, first time ever held, bound to be some glitches here & there....

[Maofan7]

New article in USA Today entitled 'U.S. Figure Skating seeks to win new Olympic event'. It reads:-

Raith said Friday that he expected the USA to win the team gold because of the Americans' depth. However, Russia and Japan might disagree.

There will be plenty of strategy involved as well, Raith said, as skaters can declare an interest in doing the short program or the long or both.

"I view it as an opportunity to get another medal," Raith said. "To start the Olympics with a medal, hopefully gold, I don't think there is any better way, to have a medal in your pocket before you even get to your event."

[IceIceBaby]

There is no point expect gold in such a competition as a team event in FIGURE SKATING. One random fall and that's it.

[kwanfan1818]

I don't see where anyone was expecting gold, but one random fall in IJS score does not mean instant , and team scoring is on a single point/inverse-to-placement system, which means that a skater or team that drops a place loses on point, not the difference in absolute program score.

[bek]

New article in USA Today entitled 'U.S. Figure Skating seeks to win new Olympic event'. It reads:-

That one I don't get.. We are likely to get creamed in Pairs...

[Proustable]

Yeah and depth actually has slightly less meaning then breadth here.

[l'etoile]

Sorry for being ignorant, but is this team competition supposed to be held only in Olympics or would it be a regular in Worlds, too?

[kwanfan1818]

The US is most likely to be fifth in Pairs, behind Russia, Germany, China, and Canada. I don't think the US has a shot at gold, which should be between Russia and Canada, assuming the strongest skaters skate, but the US should be a favorite for bronze.

The Team Event is currently scheduled for the Oympics only. World Team Trophy has been held in Japan, and I doubt the ISU would risk pissing off the Japanese Fed and TV people to consolidate it into Worlds. The participation criteria for WTT are more stringent than for the Olympic Team event, where there are no sanctions against top-ranked skaters who don't participate.

[bek]

Its actually too bad Italy doesn't have some good men because they could maybe challenge for a medal. They have a good dance team, a good pairs team, a great lady (and a good lady).. I'm thinking the US could be sixth in pairs.

[kwanfan1818]

Berton/Hotarek could beat Denney/Coughlin if they skate the way they did at Euros. Their 2013 Euros score was nearly 20 points higher than their Worlds 2012 score and nearly 30 points higher than their Euros 2012 score, showing a huge improvement. It's only a couple of points higher than Denney/Coughlin's high score at 4C's last year, but it's certainly doable. It should be close, especially with Denney/Coughlin playing catch-up, health-wise.

The same could be said of Japan -- if they only had a mid-level Pairs team, they could be challenging for a medal, since they have great Ladies and Men and a lowish-level Dance team (likely behind CAN, RUS, USA, ITA, FRA, possibly GER) -- or France -- if they only had a competitive Ladies skater, since they've got a great Dance team, two Men who can be great, and a decent, improving Pairs team.

[Cherub721]

Its actually too bad Italy doesn't have some good men because they could maybe challenge for a medal. They have a good dance team, a good pairs team, a great lady (and a good lady).. I'm thinking the US could be sixth in pairs.

They should have coughed up the money for Contesti's training costs.

US will do fine in pairs. China and Germany might not make it to the final, so US would probably slot 3rd in pairs behind Russia and Canada; France and Japan (if they put together a team) are beatable for them.

[julieann]

I'm really starting to warm up to this team competition. One bad skate by one person can take a team right out of the medals.

[kwanfan1818]

I think the final two teams will come from ITA, FRA, CHN, and JPN. I don't think Germany will make it, since their only strong discipline is Pairs, and China has stronger Ladies and Men.

Since points are cumulative, the advantage to a weaker participant in the FS/FD is that last is six points instead of one (in the SP/SD). The biggest obstacle to gold for the US should be the points gap after the SP/SD, and that's where Pairs is likely to come in, with USA behind RUS, GER, CAN, CHN, and possibly ITA.

For the US best case scenarios for each individual discipline aren't the best for the total; for the gold, +/-/neutral is how each could impact the distance between the US and RUS or CAN:

• FRA: + for Dance, - for Men, neutral for Ladies. P/B should put space between D/W and either I/K or B/S, however, Amodio or Joubert should put space between Chan and the US Man.
• CHN: neutral for Ladies, Dance, and Men, - for Pairs. P/T should put space between V/T and D/C, and possibly between D/R and D/C.
• ITA: - for Pairs (potentially) and Ladies, neutral for Dance and Men. B/H could put space between V/T and D/C and D/R and D/C.
• JPN: - for Men and Ladies, neutral for Pairs and Dance. [Japanese woman] could put space between [Russian woman] and Wagner. [Japanese Man] could put space between US Man and Chan.

D/W are likely to place ahead of a Russian Dance team, and could place ahead of V/M, but I wouldn't count on it; without FRA in the final, it will only be a one-point gain in the FD.

vs. RUS: +2 in the SD, +1 (no FRA) or +2 in the FD.
vs. CAN: Oh, who knows. Maybe they'll split it and the points will come out equal.

D/C are likely to place behind [a Russian team], S/S, P/T, D/R, maybe B/H. Without GER in the final, it's likely they'd be 4th. Without GER and ITA in the final, it's likely they'd be 3rd.

vs. RUS: -5 if V/T in 1st and B/H ahead in the SP. -3 if V/T in 2nd and D/C ahead of B/H in the SP. -4 if [Russian pair] win and ITA and CHN are in the FS. -3 if [Russian Pair] win and ITA or CHN is in the FS, -2 if [Russian Pair] win and ITA and CHN not in FS.
vs. CAN: -2 in SP, -2 in the FS if ITA in, -1 if ITA out.

Assuming Wagner is the US woman, at this point, if Kostner doesn't crumble in the Olympics, Wagner could very well be behind Kostner, Asada, and one of the Russian Ladies -- maybe Sotnikova is the stronger SP skater. Without a very bad skate, she's unlikely to be behind FRA, CHN, GER, CAN (although, who knows, especially in the SP), FIN?, UKR?, ESP?, whoever the last two teams are.

vs. RUS: -1 to -3 in the SP, -1 if JPN and ITA don't make the final, -2 if either don't make the final.
vs. CAN: +1 to +3 in SP and FS. I think, unless FIN is in the final and Korpi skates well in the SP, Osmond could be Top five in the SP.

I have no idea who US man will be for each program. Abbott, of all the US Men, has the potential to medal, but has yet to skate two programs to his potential. I'm not sure it matters, placement-wise, if it's Abbott or Miner. (Or, possibly, Farris). Of all of the disciplines, this is probably the biggest crap shoot: If ESP is somehow one of the last two teams, Fernandez could skate a blinder, as could Han Yan, if the Chinese Fed decides to send him. Will Plushenko be okay for Sochi, and, if so, and Kovtun gains two places in London, will he skip the Team Event? It could be -2 for the US if Fernandez and Han Yan skate and skate well. JPN, Chan, and FRA have great shots at going ahead of a US Man, as does Fernandez, if Spain competes. If CZE is in, Brezina could, too.

vs. RUS: +1 to -3, depending on whether there is a strong Plushenko or Kovtun in the SP and whether Fernandez skates, and +1 to -1 if JPN or FRA does not make the final.
vs. CAN: -3 in the SP, and -2, if JPN or FRA does not make the final.

I think CAN has an advantage over the US in everything but Ladies -- I don't see D/W winning both the SD and FD segments over V/M -- and that the advantage isn't that great, because there won't be three Ladies from Japan and Russia, just one. The US will have a small advantage over RUS in Dance, smaller if FRA doesn't make the final, but a big disadvantage in the Pairs SP and a possible, small disadvantage in Men, depending on who shows up in what condition.

[Theatregirl1122]

I actually didn't think of how weird it will be for D&W and V&M to face off in Sochi before the actual competition. I feel like it isn't as weird in other disciplines, but in dance... It'll be interesting to see if they split, if it terns out to be telling as far as how the eventual results go, or if it comes out totally different.

[kwanfan1818]

If the US is serious about the Team Event, they'll assign D/W. If the team is very solid for bronze, but has no real chance for the gold or silver, then maybe C/B would do the FD, depending which five teams were in the final. However much Skate Canada is all over Gilles/Poirier, they will automatically lose points to the Russian team, and only V/M can give Canada a three-point advantage over Russia after the SD, which Canada will need to compensate for a disadvantage in Ladies and Pairs. Skate Canada in the hunt for the gold after the SD will need V/M again.

I wonder what Moir thinks about the team event. It would give him a chance to be a three-time Olympic gold medalist, something only Plushenko has a chance at, and that's a very long shot at this point, unless he can heal before next year.

[Theatregirl1122]

If the US is serious about the Team Event, they'll assign D/W. If the team is very solid for bronze, but has no real chance for the gold or silver, then maybe C/B would do the FD, depending which five teams were in the final.

I'm not sure if this is a reply to me, but if it was, I didn't mean split in terms of one or both of them only doing one program. I meant split in terms of one of them winning one program and one winning the other.

I don't think there's any way that USFSA or Skate Canada let V&M and D&W out of the team event and I don't think either team would elect not to compete for an Olympic medal they have a great shot at.

I wonder what Moir thinks about the team event. It would give him a chance to be a three-time Olympic gold medalist, something only Plushenko has a chance at, and that's a very long shot at this point, unless he can heal before next year.

I think Tessa will also have a shot.

[Frau Muller]

Sorry if this question has been asked and answered earlier (I read posts and could not find it easily):

Must the competitors in the Olympics Team Event come from a country's pool of skaters already assigned to one of the four traditional disciplines...or can a country's federation assign skaters just to the Team event? I ask because of something Evan Lysacek quickly stated in yesterday's NBC telecast of the Nat'ls Men's finals: "I hope to be in Sochi to help the USA win the Team Event." (paraphrase)

This made me wonder if USFS could assign Evan (or any other skater) to only the Team Event if he/she fails to qualify for the traditional singles/pairs/dance events?

[kwanfan1818]

A skater/team can be assigned to the team event only if the country hasn't qualified at least one for the individual event through London Worlds or 2013 Nebelhorn. (If it's the host country who hasn't qualified one, the host bye is one person for both the team [if applicable] and individual competitions.)

Lysacek would have to qualify for the Men's event to skate the team event.

The question is what the alternates policy is. I think there are no substitutions after the first official practice. Does anyone know the actual policy? Also, if it's the first official practice, is this for all disciplines or just the applicable discipline? It seems they'd want a provision to replace someone who is injured during the team competition for the individual competition, and, depending on the policy, someone could skate the team competition and then be injured or "injured" and have someone else skate the individual discipline.

[NadineWhite]

Like I said previously, the Team Event is going to be the most interesting. The first time ever held, bound to be some glitches here & there, and also some controversial results imho. Already the rules are kinda hazy. What the actual competition will look like will be anybody's guess.