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  1. #101

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    Quote Originally Posted by starryxskies View Post
    I was saying Japan will make it through to LP. You're talking about countries as a whole and 5 make it through. Please don't tell me you think Italy will make it through over Japan. Even with only 1 man and 1 lady, Japan still tops all the countries with the 2012 WTT results if we use the 2014 Sochi placement point system (1-10). Very close with Canada and the US, but they still top it nonetheless. There's tons of wiggle room for them to still be top 5. With Tran, we'll see when we see. It's controversial so I wouldn't even touch up upon it. Last time I heard, the Liberal Democratic party was supporting Tran.

    Countries are allowed to participate with just 3 disciplines, not sure if you know. So they won't really be "forfeiting" so to speak, just disadvantaging themselves.
    The thing is Zhenya already has an olympic gold. Competing in Sochi, he wants the mens title and men's gold. 2 olympic golds is out of the question if he participates in the team event (which is held before men's singles). He really only has the stamina to go at 100% for 1 competition at 31 years old. With how deep the Men's field is atm, he'll need his 100%. There's the possibility that he won't even podium if he exerts himself too much. That's basically what I'm trying to say and I truly believe his priority is the Men's gold. With that, I'm just not gonna be surprised if he doesn't do team event, this man won't even compete at 2013 Worlds to get that 2nd spot for Russia.
    Yes, I think italy with a top 3 placement in Ladies, a top 6 placement in Dance, and a top 6 placement in pairs will make it over Japan with a top 2 placement in mens, a top 3 placement in Ladies and possibly a last place in dance and no points at all for pairs (provided Takahashi and Tran do not get citizenship which is the most likely outcome).

    And yes, I know that you can compete without a man. But competing and winning a medal are two very different things. And whether or not Plush cares about a team medal, I suspect Russia does.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by NadineWhite View Post
    Hmmm, I really think it will be close for gold because I'm not as confident that Russia will easily win gold over Canada. Yep, they got the edge on pairs, but Canada's got the edge on both men & dance! And if Joannie Rochette comes back, or Osmond (whom has it all) keeps skating the way she has been then she'll put up a high score for ladies as well. Whereas Russia only truly has the edge in two disciplines, pairs, and mens to a lesser degree, depending on how they score Zhenya against Patrick? But that's it, dance is top 5 for them, but ladies is the biggest question mark. They are *unproven* in this regard. Even though I still prefer Adelina over Liza, each one is still young and growing, and anything can happen. That said, I would definitely have Liza skate the FS, Adelina the SP. I'll know more after 2013 Worlds, that's where I want to see how they do against Osmond.
    If I were to bet on who has a stronger team in the ladies discipine, Russia or Canada - I'm going with Russia.
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  3. #103

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    I calculated the team placements based on season best scores. I couldn't find 10 teams that had skaters in enough disciplines but I found 8 that had at least 3: USA, CAN, JAP, RUS, FRA, ITA, CHI, GER.

    Italy and Germany would have to field a junior man or forfeit the slot. I didn't use any skater that hasn't competed this season (Plushenko, Kostner) and I also assumed that Japan would forfeit the pairs slot.

    If you rank order the scores from the short programs by country, the following 5 teams would advance in this order:
    USA, CAN + RUS (tied), JAP, AND FRA.

    Then, if you rank order the scores from the best long programs by country, here is the standings:
    USA, CAN, RUS + JAP (tied), and FRA. I believe the tie-breaker would go to JAP.

    There were some cases in which the skater from a specific country who had the best short program score was not the same as the skater who had the best long program score. For example, Julia L (RUS) has the best short score and Eliza T (RUS) has the best long. Also, Jeremy Abbott has the best short score from USA whereas Ross Miner has the best long program score. Finally, it wouldn't matter whether the US sent D/C or C/S. The rankings would stay the same.

  4. #104
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    If the Russian man who skates in London does not earn a second spot, then if Plushenko gets the Men's spot, which is expected if he physically can, he either skates the team event, or Russia forfeits the men's event, which would make it extremely difficulty for them to win the team gold.

    Will Japan even compete in the team event if Tran doesn't get citizenship?

    ETA:

    The points system is an aggregated 10-1 placement system (1st place gets 10, 2nd place gets 9, 3rd place gets 8...10th place gets 1), not an aggregated program total system.

    As of now, before championships, the top scores for each country all the disciplines are, with guesses for who will not have enough participants (3 min) for a team:

    Dance:
    USA
    CAN
    FRA
    ITA
    RUS
    AZE -- may not qualify a team
    GER
    GBR
    JPN
    CHN

    Ladies:
    JPN
    USA
    RUS
    KOR -- the worst I think Kim will place.
    (ITA) Kostner hasn't skated, and if she does as planned, I'm guessing she'd be here at worst.
    FIN -- no team
    CAN
    CHN
    FRA
    GEO -- no team
    SWE -- no team
    EST -- no team?
    GBR


    Men:
    JPN
    CAN
    ESP -- no team
    USA
    CZE -- no team
    RUS
    FRA
    KAZ -- no team
    CHN

    Pairs:
    RUS
    GER
    CHN
    CAN
    USA
    ITA
    FRA
    ISR -- no team

    Assuming that RUS, USA, and CAN are in, leaving two spots, I count FRA and JPN with 21, assuming JPN has no pairs and places second in Ladies and Men and 8th in Dance. (It doesn't matter that the Reeds, now healthy, might place 18th at championships when there are multiple teams from USA, RUS, CAN, ITA, FRA, for example, in front of them. In team competition, there's only one competitor from each country.) I count CHN with 18, although Han Yan could beat a USA man or Amodio or Joubert in the SP and score a few more points, however, that's placing CHN 3rd in Pairs, which is iffy in itself unless P/T have time to heal. I count ITA with 20, with ITA filling in a man if they don't qualify one directly for Men's competition. I wouldn't expect that man to place higher than 9th or 10th; the 20 includes a 9th place skate.

    I don't expect big strides in Dance or Ladies for CHN, or Ladies and Pairs for FRA, given who is ahead of them. I'm counting 5th for Joubert or Amodio, although a USA man could drop lower, and I can't see James/Cipres in normal circumnstances beating out RUS, GER (if they have a team), USA (if it's D/C or maybe C/S by next year), or CAN. They might catch up with Berton/Hotarek by next year, or B/H could be stronger with another year under their belts.

    I don't think it's a given that JPN will not be skating the FS without a pair. It will be tough, but there are four countries that should be very tight.

    And, no, there's nothing in the announcement that indicates any on-ice competition or that a country must skate its highest-ranked skater/team, if the country qualifies more than one per discipline.
    Last edited by kwanfan1818; 12-13-2012 at 09:33 AM.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by stjeaskategym View Post
    Can we think of any instances where a country would want a different skater doing the long? (aside from maybe fatigue) Seems kind of weird.
    Quote Originally Posted by lavenderblue View Post
    But as an ice dance fan first and foremost, and someone with more interest in the other disciplines in choreography than jumps, it is the artistic and emotional component that I wonder about, as far as achieving that height. I wonder what Mahler, for example, may have looked like in a team-event Olympics.
    If I were USFSA or Skate Canada, I would put D/W or V/M in for the SD, and then put a different team in for the FD. Dance is definitely one of disciplines where an Olympic worthy FD just wouldn't be the same if skated twice in such close succession.

    ETA: And yes, I do get that the second team does end up having to skate their FD twice, but that's what happens when your second string. Hopefully the second team's chance to be first happens in the next Olympics.
    Last edited by sap5; 12-13-2012 at 06:20 PM.

  6. #106
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    Team strategy-wise, substituting D/W in the FD could very well depend on which of the four teams likely to be fighting for the last two spots make it into the final. For example, were CHN and JPN to make it, the Shibs would likely go down two spots to be behind RUS and CAN, were D/W to beat V/M in the SD segment; otherwise, they should drop a single spot. Were the last two teams in the final to be ITA (with Kostner) and FRA, with P/B and C/L skating, then, given recent results, the Shibs would end up 3-4 points lower than D/W. Similarly, if V/M do the SD, but not the FD, W/P could drop anywhere from 1-4 places, depending on which countries are in the final and whether D/W skate the FD.

    Some factors are: whether Zoueva has a common strategy for both teams, either having them go head-to-head in one or both programs or having each do one program to get the bugs out and to avoid an early confrontation, if the teams themselves have different strategies or preferences, Federation strategy and pressure, and, possibly, which five teams make it into the final.

    If the US is a significant amount behind RUS and CAN after the SP/SD but looking very strong for a bronze, they might substitute the Shibs in, for example. (Unless Chan or V/M, for example, doesn't skate the free. I haven't seen a schedule.).

    It's hard to tell at this point who is gung-ho to do both aspects. I could see Moir being gung ho about a Team Canada gold, but I can't see him competing happily in the FD if he felt that it could hurt V/M's chances for a repeat gold.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

  7. #107

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    I would have very much preferred if the team competition took place after the individual. The team competition is not well developed the way it is in gymnastics and it may not carry as much weight as gymnastics. It could be a big distraction to top skaters.

  8. #108
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    I think it could be especially distracting if Federations don't decide on the FD/FS skaters until after the SD/SP. There's little precedent for skaters to be on hold that way, knowing they'll definitely skate for the individual event, but on hold for the team event, especially for Ladies and Dance, the second week events. The Olympics is a big prize for the contenders, and it's an odd place to start the experiment.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

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    By now, I think we have a unanimous viewpoint that the team event should be after the individuals and pairs. It does hurt medal contenders' chances at an individual Gold (or a medal at all), especially when there are medal contenders that will not even skate in the team event at all. What comes to mind right now is the Men's field with Spain's Javier, one of Japan's 3 medal contender in the mens won't be doing it. And then we have skaters that won't be able to skate up to their full 100% potential when it comes to their own event aka their main priority. I can definitely see Moir throwing a fit considering he's not exactly WTT's biggest fan to begin with.

    Which is why I'm hoping the Federations are making noise to oppose against this scheduling. We haven't heard any news about it publicly but I hope they're doing it behind closed doors. I really hope the skaters are aware of the fact that the team event is before their individuals/pairs events so they can complain as well to their respective Federations.

  10. #110

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    They can have the SD/SP portion take place on the last Saturday (short track ends on the last Friday) and the FD/LP portion take place on the last Sunday (as well as the gala). The ladies will be exhausted.

  11. #111

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    So, if it's one per discipline, then only the skaters that participate get a medal. However, if they were to switch skaters between the SP and LP, then could a country with a lot of depth try to have more of their skaters get another Olympic medal by doing that? Could we potentially have a team with 12 skaters (since pairs and Ice Dance skate in pairs) representing one team and another country with 6?

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    I haven't been able to really get enthusiastic about the team competition. Associate it too much with fluff competitions.

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    So, if it's one per discipline, then only the skaters that participate get a medal. However, if they were to switch skaters between the SP and LP, then could a country with a lot of depth try to have more of their skaters get another Olympic medal by doing that? Could we potentially have a team with 12 skaters (since pairs and Ice Dance skate in pairs) representing one team and another country with 6?
    No country can only make 2 changes to the team so maximum size of the team is 10.. Answer to your second question is yes , there can be team with 6 athletes as well.

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    There can be a team of four as well, since any team can participate in three of four disciplines. If Tran doesn't get citizenship -- a likely scenario -- and Japan doesn't put together a team by then to get at least a point (and maybe more, since not all teams will have Pairs), then they can two singles skaters and the Reeds, if they decide to use the same singles skaters for both phases (if they make it to the final).

    It still isn't clear whether there will be any minimum scores required for the Olympics, since there's a separate qualifying process for that which automatically limits participants. If there are no minimum scores, it could mean if there were an age-eligible team of Japanese citizens put together for the purpose of scoring something in the SP, they could garner some points that way. A Pairs team might place 7th if there were few enough teams, earning more points than the Reeds, who likely face more dance.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

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    This seems so ridiculous. So a country can possibly score high enough to make the finals with one missing discipline over a country that's represented in all four disciplines? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of a team event?

    That's like a gymnastics team qualifying for a team final without having anyone compete in one of the apparatuses.

    I mean I know there are countries that are excellent in three disciplines and a country that may be average or below in all four, but having the former be able to place higher without some sort of score a fourth discipline seems to defeat the spirit of the competition. Unless the spirit of having this is just for more exposure and money for the ISU/IOC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starryxskies View Post
    By now, I think we have a unanimous viewpoint that the team event should be after the individuals and pairs. It does hurt medal contenders' chances at an individual Gold (or a medal at all), especially when there are medal contenders that will not even skate in the team event at all. What comes to mind right now is the Men's field with Spain's Javier, one of Japan's 3 medal contender in the mens won't be doing it. And then we have skaters that won't be able to skate up to their full 100% potential when it comes to their own event aka their main priority. I can definitely see Moir throwing a fit considering he's not exactly WTT's biggest fan to begin with.

    Which is why I'm hoping the Federations are making noise to oppose against this scheduling. We haven't heard any news about it publicly but I hope they're doing it behind closed doors. I really hope the skaters are aware of the fact that the team event is before their individuals/pairs events so they can complain as well to their respective Federations.
    Since you feel it's inappropriate to schedule the team event before the individual/pairs events (and I completely agree) why characterize Moir as "throwing a fit" if he actually speaks up about this, which would potentially benefit all medal contenders?

    He and Tessa are well aware of the plan, they said in an older interview that they felt it would make more sense to have the team event after the individual events, but that Marina had argued it was best to do the team event first (trying to persuade her teams to see a negative as a positive?)

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    This seems so ridiculous. So a country can possibly score high enough to make the finals with one missing discipline over a country that's represented in all four disciplines? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of a team event?

    That's like a gymnastics team qualifying for a team final without having anyone compete in one of the apparatuses.

    I mean I know there are countries that are excellent in three disciplines and a country that may be average or below in all four, but having the former be able to place higher without some sort of score a fourth discipline seems to defeat the spirit of the competition. Unless the spirit of having this is just for more exposure and money for the ISU/IOC.
    Yes, the QUALIFICATION SYSTEM FOR XXII OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES, SOCHI 2014 announcement (3.1) says,

    Each Team must participate in at least 3 disciplines (Ladies/Men/Pair Skating/Ice Dance) of the Figure Skating Team Event. NOCs/ISU Members who according to the procedure as per paragraph 2 above would have qualified for the Figure Skating Team Event but who are unable or unwilling to compose a Team with Skaters/Couples competing in at least 3 disciplines will not be allowed to compete in the Figure Skating Team Event.
    You have to think they were considering Japan in the formulation of these rules, and, considering JPN has a good chance of placing first or second in two of the singles disciplines, unlikely for ITA, FRA, and CHN (their likely rivals for two spots in the top five), they could make it. The Reeds, if they get back into shape, could pass Coomes/Buckland, although I don't think they'd pass Zhiganshina/Gazsi. I don't know if AZE will be able to field a team, either.

    The ten teams are determined by taking the top two placements from each country for each discipline from a subset of competitions starting with 2013 Worlds (if none, 2013 Euros, 2013 4C's, or still if none, 2013 Jr. Worlds) and going through the 2013-14 GP season (if none, the 2013-14 JGP season). Then points from the standard WS table are assigned to the placements, and the countries with the ten highest totals are offered spots, which they can decline if they don't field a team of at least three disciplines. When they say "each" of the two groups, I think they mean one score from GP's and another from the Worlds/championships group.

    For example, if this were happening this year, based on 2012-13 GP's and 2012 Worlds, then JPN would get

    720 for Takahashi's GPF silver
    400 for DT's of his GP wins
    972 for Hanyu's World bronze
    1080 for Takahashi's World silver
    720 for Suzuki's GPF silver
    400 for Suzuki's (or Asada's) GP win
    213 for the Reeds placement at a GP
    If there was a Jr. team from JPN last year at a JGP that earned points, those points.

    And, since there's nothing to say that the skaters/teams whose points are used have to be Olympic eligible to count,

    972 for T/T*'s Worlds bronze
    472 for T/T's placement at a GP

    *They won't have a placement at Worlds this year, from what I know, but they should have a GP score from next year, assuming she heals.

    That should easily place them in the Top 10 teams to qualify.

    It would seem that GP assignments next year are going to be important for teams outside the Top 12 in each discipline and the Top 24 SB and Top 24 WS, but I don't know for whom this would apply, since, for example, I'm not sure Israel could scrape together three disciplines, assuming no minimum scores.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

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    I think the decision to have team event at the beginning if the competition is the correct call. IOC approved the team event for not all the sports that applied for the event. Alpine skiing, Bobsleigh, Luge all wanted an olympic team event for their disciplines, IOC refused both skiing and Bobsleigh's proposal, and only Luge and FS got the team events. Luge technically had created a new relay, and is very interesting relay event hence they got the event.


    Team event in FS to work needs the event to be exciting and LESS predictable. This is very hard in a sport where results rarely change between the competitions. Having team event after the individual event will mean that results are already available from Individual event, why bother to have a team event final anyway (especially for sports like Ice dance). The event becomes really predictable and less exciting. If the event needs to succeed some amount of uncertainty in the result needs to built otherwise IOC will be more than happy to scrap the event.


    I agree with Kwanfan1818, a team can be made of just 4 members as well, provided they score high enough to qualify.

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    Are there opposing voices for the team event in gymnastics to be held before the individual events too? (sorry not a fan of gymnastics and have no idea whatsoever)

    Quote Originally Posted by stjeaskategym View Post
    Can we think of any instances where a country would want a different skater doing the long? (aside from maybe fatigue) Seems kind of weird.
    If Wagner continues to be strong like in her GPs but just can't get her 3/3, it might not be a bad idea to have a Gold or a Nagasu to skate the short and just to have Wagner skate the long.


    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    There can be a team of four as well, since any team can participate in three of four disciplines.
    Which means technically a team of a man and a lady would suffice if they are strong enough on their own and can combine together as a strong pairs and/or dance team.

    Quote Originally Posted by kwanfan1818 View Post
    If the Russian man who skates in London does not earn a second spot, then if Plushenko gets the Men's spot, which is expected if he physically can, he either skates the team event, or Russia forfeits the men's event, which would make it extremely difficulty for them to win the team gold.
    In that situation, can't they have Plushenko skate the men's event, and have a Kovtun skate the men's competition in the team event?
    Last edited by Marco; 12-14-2012 at 04:14 AM.

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    ITA might make it over JPN, or they might not -- Berton/Hotarek can be terrific, but they are also inconsistent, and Kostner hasn't done well at the Olympics so far -- but will two of CHN, ITA, and FRA make it over JPN? Amodio can come in 7th if he implodes or he can come in 2nd, if the field implodes: the only shoe-in for FRA would be P/B, unless they are politiked to 4th/he gets nervous. If there are no minimum TES standards, then it's possible for ITA to have a man skate under the provision if a skater doesn't make it through normal qualifying (London or Nebelhorn), one can be appointed for the team event*. It depends, obviously on the SP, whether in particular a Japanese woman can do the job. On the other hand, Hanyu might break another SP WR, and the Reeds should be able to beat UKR -- I don't think Heekin-Canedy has UKR citizenship-- and they beat Coomes/Buckland and Huang/Zheng at NHK. If they ended up in 7th, they'd be two only points behind C/L, whom I don't expect to fall below 5th. (Yes, folks, a team expected to be ranked 10-15 at Worlds can be two places behind a team that's slated to come in Top 5.)

    I think the ISU make be smoking something strong to expect a field of 10*, unless they want the first group at the Olympics to be weaker than the weakest first group at a GP, and they can kiss it goodbye if there are high TES minimums.

    *The text is this:

    NOCs/ISU Members who do not have qualified Skaters/Couples in an individual OWG competition/discipline (Single Lady, Single Man, Pair Skating, Ice Dance), may enter into the Figure Skating Team Event 1 Skater/Couple per competition/discipline plus one Stand-by Skater/Couple per discipline. The Stand-by Skaters/Couples will remain on stand-by and will not be accredited/allowed into the Olympic Village unless the initially entered Skater/Couple has been confirmed as withdrawn due to injury, illness or other serious reasons as accepted by the IOC/ISU.
    Since there is no limit to the number of non-originally qualified skaters/teams that can be assigned, if the country places high enough to be one of the 10. If there are no high TES minimums, were SWE to get a Pairs and/or Dance team in the fall based on V. Helgesson's and Majorov's GP and World standings, they could appoint a Pair and a Dance team.

    The top teams at this point are RUS and CAN in some order, then USA, then ITA, FRA, JPN, and CHN in some order. The next group would be those who can field a complete team with at least one strong discipline or a couple of solid ones: GBR, GER -- each might have to appoint a skater who hasn't qualified for the Olympics individual event, like ITA might for a man. I don't see Pairs for POL or UKR, but the 9th and 10th nations may be ones that cobble a team together.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

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