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    Examples: Expected big drops in standings by leaders going into Free Skate

    The Kristina Wegelius example from the 1982 World Championships Thread (1 after SP to 9 after FS) brings up an interesting question:

    What are other examples of leaders who dropped a lot after the free skate, but this decline down the standings was actually expected?

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    Anytime Sasha Cohen took the ice.

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    Laura Lepisto dropped from first in the short to seventh overall at 2007 Skate Canada. I can't remember if quite that drop was expected at the time, but I don't think very many observers expected her to remain ahead of Asada, or even Nakano and Rochette.

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    How about Julia Sebestyen at 2009 Cup of Russia?

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    Well, except during her last competitive season, Nancy Kerrigan was usually pretty reliable in that regard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by neptune View Post
    Well, except during her last competitive season, Nancy Kerrigan was usually pretty reliable in that regard.
    Not as far as the overall standings were concerned. From 1991 to the end of her career, she remained on the podium on every occasion but one, and I get the impression that her below-third finish in Prague was something of a surprise (though not to everyone, I'm sure). Perhaps I'm interpreting the OP too narrowly, but I'd say that to have "dropped a lot after the free skate" is to have missed winning a medal altogether.

    1990-1991

    Nationals: 3rd in both phases
    Worlds: 5th to 3rd

    1991-1992

    Nations Cup: 1st overall (I don't know how she fared in the short.)
    Trophee Lalique: 4th to 3rd
    Nationals: 2nd in both phases
    Olympics: 2nd to 3rd
    Worlds: 3rd to 2nd

    1992-1993

    Skate America: 4th to 2nd
    Nationals: 1st in both phases
    Worlds: 1st to 5th

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    Sasha Cohen epitomizes this.

    Before this season, I'd say Carolina Kostner. But then I can't quite recall if it was the sp or lp she usually blew?

    Kiira Korpi.

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    I didn't really *expect* Sasha to fall in the standings. I wasn't surprised when it happened though. She had the ability and had the potential to deliver and we could at least hope that she would.

    Kristina Wegelius, who the OP referenced, was expected to drop because she clearly didn't have the content to maintain the lead even before she stepped on the ice.

    Sasha Cohen could have won just about every competition she entered. It's a shame she never became a World Champion.

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    When Nagasu led the 2010 worlds I didn't expect that to last.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiruwater View Post
    Sasha Cohen epitomizes this.
    With respect to expectations that she'd place lower in the FS, perhaps (though Ares makes a very good point).

    With respect to sharp declines in her overall placements after "winning" the short programs, no.
    Last edited by falling_dance; 12-19-2011 at 11:08 AM.

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    Berezhnaya and Sikharulidze's first World Championships.. 2nd in the SP.. and 9th in the FS I think?

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    Joannie Rochette at 2006 Worlds.

    Laetitia Hubert at 1992 Olympics.

    Surya Bonaly at 1998 Euros (IIRC, she was 2nd entering the FS, and 6th overall)...

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    This was pretty much Kira Ivanova's entire 85-88 quad!

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    I'd be surprised if anyone expected Bobek to maintain her lead in 1995 over Chen and Bonaly at Worlds. As a big Nicole fan, I definitely hoped she would hold on to her lead, but I definitely didn't expect it to happen. She was lacking in experience, confidence under pressure, and consistency. I'm sure being in the lead after the SP must have surprised her and everyone else and unfortunately added more pressure to her than she could deal with.
    Last edited by museksk8r; 12-19-2011 at 04:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    I'd be surprised if anyone expected Bobek to maintain her lead in 1995 over Chen and Bonaly at Worlds. As a big Nicole fan, I definitely hoped she would hold on to her lead, but I definitely didn't expect it to happen. She was lacking in experience, confidence under pressure, and consistency. I'm sure being in the lead after the SP must have surprised her and everyone else and unfortunately added more pressure to her than she could deal with.
    Olga Markova was 2nd after the SP, and she finished in 5th. It really was a special World championships !

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    This happened a lot more often during the figures era where several of the leaders after figures were expected to drop once the free skating started, and vice versa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by berthesghost View Post
    This happened a lot more often during the figures era where several of the leaders after figures were expected to drop once the free skating started, and vice versa.
    It happened, but to a lesser extent than one might imagine, and mostly during the period when Wegelius and Deborah Cottrill, who had a similar sharp drop in the standings, finished just behind her at 1982 Worlds, happened to skate.

    Earlier, using factored placements and total points tended to favor those who were strong in the Compulsories. This is why Beatrix Schuba was able to win the 1972 Olympic Gold Medal even though she was only seventh in the Free Skate. This was true even after the introduction of the Short Program in 1973. For example, Isabelle de Navarre was first in the Compulsories at the 1976 Winter Olympics, eleventh in the Short Program (at which point she was third overall), twelfth in the Free Skate, and still finished fifth.

    Had De Navarre been marked under the system that went into effect in the early 1980's, she would have had a pronounced drop in the rankings after both the Short Program and Free Skate, with a much lower final placement.
    Last edited by Vagabond; 12-19-2011 at 11:15 PM.

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    Volchkova for a few years there. Also Sebestyen pretty much her entire career. Gedevanishvilli in her junior and early senior years as well, though it's funny because now she is generally a stronger FS skater.

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    Quote Originally Posted by maharbabackward View Post
    Berezhnaya and Sikharulidze's first World Championships.. 2nd in the SP.. and 9th in the FS I think?
    IIRC they were 3rd in the SP at the 97 worlds, but under 6.0 they could have won the competition if they had skated a very good LP, so that's almost like being 1st in the SP. They did drop a LOT in the LP (4 falls total; 2 by each).

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    Ksenia Makarova all last season unfortunately . Her team always seems to pick good SPs and crappy FSs for her.

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