2012 World Politics - Taiwan (Republic of China) - Jan. 2012 Presidential Election
I haven't bothered to put up vBets for a couple of notable world elections lately because the outcome wasn't in doubt (Christina Fernandez de Kirchner's first-round win in Argentina; the Mariano Rajoy/PP absolute majority in Spain), but the upcoming race in Taiwan (a.k.a. Republic of China) looks to be a nail-biter.
Taiwanese politics always features a dose of volatility or comicality, depending on your persuasion. Taiwan's known for frequent mass fist-fights right on the lectern of the legislature. Also, in 2004, incumbent president Chen Shui-bian was trailing in the polls until an assassination attempt just before the election (true in some eyes; staged in others) helped trigger a wave of sympathy. He won by just 23,000 votes.
By the way, this vBet makes no judgment or editorial statement as to whether the place is called "Taiwan" or the "Republic of China" or whether it ought to be in the business of electing a president; it's just a vBet as to who will win the election. As such:
Who wins the January 2012 presidential election in Taiwan (a.k.a. Republic of China)?
Odds will be updated from time to time as developments warrant.
Kuomintang - Ma Ying-jeou - 6,891,139 - 51.60%
Democratic Progressive Party - Tsai Ing-wen - 6,093,578 - 45.63%
People First Party - James Soong Chu-yu - 369,588 - 2.77%
Total - 13,354,305 - 100%