Worlds 2012 Ladies Predictions

[RumbleFish]

If Carolina Kostner wins the worlds with current jump layout, she will become the ladies champion with easiest series of jumps since Jill Trenary.

So much for 70% value for cheated triples pushing the technical difficulty higher.

[burntBREAD]

Ashley Wagner will finish in the top 5. Kostner will choke and finish 3rd. A Japanese Skater will finish 2nd, maybe Akiko. Who knows with Alissa, either 1st or 4th or 6th or 11th. Throw a dart on that one. I luv Mao's long program this year. I hope that she skates well. Maybe Leonova will finish top 6 or 7.

1. Mao
2. don't know (could be US skater)
3. Akiko or
3. Kostner
5. Alissa or 2.
6. Ashley
7. Leonova
8. Nagasu ? or European TBD
9. Gedevanishvilli

No way Flatt will make the World team. Splatt. Splatt. (but i luv her, really. just not her year for competition.)

There's only 2 spots for US ladies this year...

[olympic]

Some more things to think about -

After watching ladies at TEB, I think judges are appreciating Czisny more, and I believe she could challenge for Gold. Although, I still think the challengers will be Asada, Czisny, Kostner and Suzuki, it will be interesting to see what happens when Kostner's clean but less ambitious jump content is measured against Asada and Czisny, who are going for lutzes [and maybe a 3x on Asada's part] and who also score big in PCS. Furthermore, will ISU judges put 2 Japanese ladies on the podium if everyone skates well? ie - any 'trading' among National feds?

Of the top ladies, the biggest question mark will be Nagasu [if she makes top 2 at US Nats and goes to Worlds]. Will the happy free Mirai show up who can ? or will the intimidated Mirai show up?

I also want to see what is going on with Sr. ladies in Russia. They have 3 spots, but could it be Leonova, Biryukova, and Shelepen, and who will get the full backing of the Russian Fed? Whoever does, will probably make it to the final warm-up group.

Korpi usually gets the benefit of the judges even when she skates poorly. She could factor. Gedevanisvhili is looking the best that I can remember since '06. Will Phaneuf turn herself around with Orser?

[topaz]

If Carolina Kostner wins the worlds with current jump layout, she will become the ladies champion with easiest series of jumps since Jill Trenary.

So much for 70% value for cheated triples pushing the technical difficulty higher.

I still think Carolina will add in the 3lutz, she has a beautiful lutz jump. Even she does not, she can do the other jumps in triples.

I don't recall Jill Trenary doing a 3toe/3toe combo and Caro's spins, speed and fw are better that Ms Trenary. So I would say she's a better skater.

[topaz]

p?

I also want to see what is going on with Sr. ladies in Russia. They have 3 spots, but could it be Leonova, Biryukova, and Shelepen, and who will get the full backing of the Russian Fed? Whoever does, will probably make it to the final warm-up group.

Korpi usually gets the benefit of the judges even when she skates poorly. She could factor. Gedevanisvhili is looking the best that I can remember since '06. Will Phaneuf turn herself around with Orser?

Is Sofia B eligible?

[blue_idealist]

I think Czisny is more a contender for gold this year than Murakami or Helgesson are for the podium. Murakami and Helgesson have done nothing that indicates they are podium threats this year.

I just can't see Czisny winning the whole thing.. I think she'll make like one mistake that'll take her out of contention for gold.

Maybe Murakami and Helgesson don't have the biggest chances to podium, but they have more chance than a lot of the OTHER skaters. Helgesson did medal at Skate Canada, and Murakami skated really well last season even though she hasn't been the same this season. She might be back in good form by Worlds.

[judgejudy27]

I dont see Czisny winning gold at Worlds either. However she has more chance to win gold at Worlds than Murakami and Helgesson have to even win a bronze at Worlds this year. That I am sure of.

[dinakt]

I agree that main contenders will be Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny. All of them are so very deserving ( and I want all four to medal so very badly... guess I'll be heartbroken for at least one of them)
Leonova and Nagasu ( provided they go to Worlds) have a decent chance at podium, as well- both peak later in the year and when "on" can be very effective ( in their own very different ways).
Shelepen can play a spoiler, but will have to jump her way to the podium. With the PCS that Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny get- and deserve!- they would need to have subpar performances to let Polina S. in.

[judgejudy27]

I agree that main contenders will be Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny. All of them are so very deserving.
Leonova and Nagasu ( provided they go to Worlds) have a decent chance at podium, as well- both peak later in the year and when "on" can be very effective ( in their own very different ways).
Shelepen can play a spoiler, but will have to jump her way to the podium. With the PCS that Asada, Suzuki, Kostner and Csizny get- and deserve!- they would need to have subpar performances to let Polina S. in.

Totally agree with that assessment.

Asada, Suziki, Czisny, Kostner- only contenders for gold and most likely medalists

Leonova, Nagasu- moderately good chance at a medal, but not gold contenders

Shelepen, Korpi (I added her)- very outside chance of a medal, maybe a bronze. I guess you could add Murakami to this group too.

[RumbleFish]

I still think Carolina will add in the 3lutz, she has a beautiful lutz jump. Even she does not, she can do the other jumps in triples.

I don't recall Jill Trenary doing a 3toe/3toe combo and Caro's spins, speed and fw are better that Ms Trenary. So I would say she's a better skater.

Adding a 3Lz doesn't neccesarily mean that she will land it cleanly.
I compared Caro's current jump layout to that of Jill Trenary's, not other elements or components.

BTW, Jill Trenary had lots of great qualities that made her a world champion.

[vodkashot]

BTW, Jill Trenary had lots of great qualities that made her a world champion.

She certainly had impressive hair.

[masofs]

My hope:

Mao Asada
Akiko Suzuki
Carolina Kostner

[longingfornia]

1 Mao Asada
2 Carolina Kostner
3 Alissa Czisny
4 Akiko Suzuki
5 Ashley Wagner

Cheers

My new order
1 Carolina Kostner
2 Mao Asada
3 Akiko Suzuki
4 Alena Leonova
5 Alissa Czisny

[Vash01]

My hope:

1.Asada
2.Kostner
3.Suzuki
4.Czisny
5.Wagner


My gut feeling:

1.Kostner
2.Asada
3.Suzuki
4.Nagasu
5.Czisny

[judgejudy27]

I will be surprised if Nagasu ends up as high as 4th at Worlds this year. She isnt exactly building momentum right now. In fact it wouldnt surprise me at all if Wagner makes it over her this year (Czisny, Nagasu, and Wagner are the only ones who can make the U.S team this year IMO with Czisny almost a lock).

Then again many were predicting Nagasu not to make the team in 2010 and she ended up having a spectacular Olympics. You can never tell with her it seems.

[kwanatic]

^^Nagasu has been known to surprise on occasion. She wasn't building momentum heading into nationals in 2010 either and we all saw the back-to-back performances she put together. Mirai is a hot and cold skater which means you never know which one you're going to get until you get her.

If she gets out of her own way at nationals, she has a good shot at the title. I do think the judges will reserve a spot for Czisny on the team...unless she mega implodes in which case even they will have a hard time justifying her scores. I think Nagasu and Czisny are the best bet for a team. Czisny has the judges' respect which should help her even if she has a rough time. Mirai, even on a bad day, can still make the top 6 so I say send her.

I'd like to see Ashley go but she doesn't exactly have the pull with the judges yet. BUT if she outskates Mirai or Alissa, I'll be pretty upset if she gets left off of the team...she's worked really hard and, more than anyone, you can tell she wants it.

[Coco]

Carolina should try a 2z-3t combo. That would be totally respectable combined with two 2a and 5 more triples.

[Seerek]

Carolina should try a 2z-3t combo. That would be totally respectable combined with two 2a and 5 more triples.

Not a lot of incentive to do this unless perhaps it's done in the 2nd half of the program. Anyways, she already has 2a-3t scheduled in the 2nd half.