As for Kaitlyn Weaver - I really, really hope that's not true. It would be very sad and disappointing for them and also for many ice dance fans . As for me - I so wanted to see the improved version of their FD, and whether they would manage to regain their last season position with that.
Kaitlyn, no! Gosh this sucks really bad. I hope its just some horrible mistake.
Really too bad for Kaitlyn and Andrew! I hope they take the time to heal so they can come back with great gusto and pizzazz in the Fall, fully healed, with fantastic programs that sparkle and show their great skills and are super entertaining and/or mesmerizing and emotional. They definitely have the "it" factor in that respect. The chemistry between these two is stunning, and they have the skills and presentation to factor into the podium with the right vehicles.
As for rest of this season, I have to think besides the obvious with V/M in first place in Canada (by a country mile now), the next spots should be Paul/Islam and Gilles/Poirier in whatever order. On the international stage, given the current season trajectory, training environment, foundations in skating, etc of both teams, I think Paul/Islam probably have a better chance of finishing in the top 10 with clean skates than Gilles/Poirier. But there is a lot of traffic in the top 10, so we shall see.
Thinking in groups, I think the top 5 in the world will be: V/M, D/W, P/B, C/L, B/S
The next 5 will be: I/K, S/S, Z/G, H/D or C/B, R/T
Then likely: Z/S, P/I, G/P
It is possible that with clean and sparkling skates, P/I can slip into the place of the 3rd US or 3rd Russian team. That would get the job done to retain 3 spots for the Olympics for Canada - they have to finish no lower than 11th or 12th, depending on where V/M finish at Worlds.
Here's how Paul/Islam's and Gilles/Poirier's scores this season stack up against the #2 and #3 US teams, the #3 Russian team, Zhiganshina/Gazsi and Zlobina /Sitnikov:
161.34 RIAZANOVA / TKACHENKO GOLD SPIN 2012
154.56 SHIBUTANI / SHIBUTANI NHK 2012
150.30 HUBBELL / DONOHUE FINLANDIA 2012
149.54 CHOCK / BATES COC 2012
148.90 ZLOBINA / SITNIKOV GOLD SPIN 2012
147.79 CHOCK / BATES NEBELHORN 2012
146.90 GILLES / POIRIER US INTL CLASSIC 2012
146.03 RIAZANOVA / TKACHENKO TEB 2012
145.23 HUBBELL / DONOHUE TEB 2012
143.76 PAUL / ISLAM US INTL CLASSIC 2012
143.59 ZLOBINA / SITNIKOV NEBELHORN 2012
143.39 RIAZANOVA / TKACHENKO SC 2012
142.00 ZHIGANSHINA / GAZSI NEBELHORN 2012
140.91 SHIBUTANI / SHIBUTANI COR 2012
140.54 ZHIGANSHINA / GAZSI COR 2012
140.30 ZLOBINA / SITNIKOV TEB 2012
139.84 CHOCK / BATES US INTL CLASSIC 2012
137.92 PAUL / ISLAM NEBELHORN 2012
136.74 GILLES / POIRIER SC 2012
135.77 GILLES / POIRIER TEB 2012
135.16 HUBBELL / DONOHUE SC 2012
132.80 ZLOBINA / SITNIKOV SC 2012
132.57 ZHIGANSHINA / GAZSI SA 2012
It might be tight, but G/P and P/I have a shot at 11th and 12th. There are eight teams definitely ahead of them: V/M, 3 RUS teams (assuming B/S, I/K, and R/T again), D/W, Shibs, P/B, and C/L. It's only going likely to be one of Hubbel/Donohue and Chock/Bates fighting for the third spot. That leaves four spots in the Top 12 for Z/G, Z/S, G/P, P/I, possibly C/J and the Reeds. Papadakis/Cizeron might be more formidable competition than Carron/Jones. Kolbe/Caruso scored in the same range as these teams at Golden Spin, but Z/G were 11th last year, and GER has only one spot. Heekin-Canedy/Dun seem to be doing comparatively better this year. Euros will be telling for them. Huang/Zheng seem to be doing worse this year.
I don't think it's inconceivable for one or both Canadian teams to make Top 12.
Did we have more information or this is just rumors?
We don't have it directly from Team W/P or Skate Canada. We have the following tweet from PJ Kwong:
I have not spoken to Kaitlyn directly but have it on good authority that it's true - more details if/when I hear
Of course, it's possible that her source is misinformed or that there has been a later/different medical diagnosis; however, she would not have tweeted had her source not been a good authority.
Wishing Katlyn a speedy recovery.
I am gutted for them. Also bit misty for me too, as I was so hoping to see them meet their goals in London and for them to have personal best skates in front of a supportive home crowd. Hoping they will do what is necessary for Kaitlin to heal completely and most effectively in order to be at their best for the Oly season. Hoping they will not lose their funding, esp if they can't skate at Nationals. Well on the flip side their loss may serve as an incredible learning experience for another Cdn ice dance team to get some unexpected international world experience and exposure, hoping that whoever becomes 2013 national silver and bronze medalists can both quickly step up to the challenge and the rare opportunity being presented, so that Canada can still have 3 teams in Sochi...
If Guignard has French Italian citizenship in time, then they should be formidable competition. P/C still have to make the leap into Seniors, which is a different kettle of fish. I like them a lot, much more than G/P, and hope they do well.
G/P and P/I (or O/W) will be fighting for their spot at the Olympics in London, so it will be interesting to see how they do. Any of ITA's will be behind C/L. Skate Canada might have its hands full with V/M, especially if D/W beat V/M at 4C's (which I don't think will happen, but it is possible.)
Last edited by kwanfan1818; 12-17-2012 at 11:25 PM. Reason: Many thanks for the correction!
One must remember that Canada does not have a judge at 2013 worlds except for pairs, so all the Canadian skater's will be underdogs (esp the dancer's where Euro teams are normally favored).
Does anyone know if Tobias is planning to apply for Lithuanian citizenship? If she is, they'd have a good shot of qualifying in London (19 spots less 3 ea for RUS, CAN, USA and 2ea for ITA, FRA, maybe AZE or GER) with all in the Top 19 should mean Top 16 should get in, and T/S are close to the bubble. If not, they should be able to qualify at Nebelhorn easily. If she isn't trying the citizenship route, then what LTU's stake is, I'm not sure.
I think all three RUS teams will be above CAN 2 and 3 with W/P out, and I think it would take an epic disaster for any of them to surpass V/M. I'm not sure if Russia is still pissed that Z/S sat out and are skating for AZE, but they did give Zhulin B/S, so they're not holding it against their coach. I suspect as long as Z/S are safely behind the Russian teams, Russia won't have a problem with Z/S moving past anyone else.
It is to Russia's and the US's advantage for Canada to be down to two teams next year at Sochi and Worlds going into the Olympic season, because it keeps the younger teams aiming for the next Olympic cycle from getting experience and exposure, although it's hard to say which of the Russian teams would retire voluntarily: I/K are 18/21, B/S are 22/23, and R/T are 21/25. I know it's hard work, but if they like what they are doing and get the kind of training and material support they have now from their Federation, I can't see why they wouldn't continue as long as their bodies hold up. R/T are likely most vulnerable to the pack of juniors and Monko/Khaliavin nipping at their heels, with Sinitsina/Zhiganshin quite close score-wise with junior programs.