Adelina Sotnikova is the 2014 Olympic champion!
As much as I adore, Polina K. I'm really hoping that does not happen. I think that's a silly tiebreak rule to begin with - points over placements, please. Some fields are deeper than others. Samantha was placed in, arguably, the two deepest fields of the entire JGP series.
This is Cesario's last shot, and with everything she's been through in the past 12 months, this would be a really awesome break for her - lots of WR points so she could possibly get a Senior GP next year.
For those who may not have watched Gold's videos from the 2011 summer competition season...
Skate Detroit SP (56.58): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjTDnBzu3SQ
Skate Detroit FS Final (109.62): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEG7zOTuiSU
Gold sometimes will make mistakes in her SP (including when she won her Novice pewter medal at 2010 Nationals); it has been her free skates this summer where she has really been consistent, scoring 99-100+ points 6 different times by my count.
Last edited by Sylvia; 10-11-2011 at 06:09 PM.
Shershak was clean in her FS in Milan and her PCS were quite high (though deserved, I think potentially they could be a few points lower here just due to there being different judges who might not hand out big PCS so handily as they did in Milan), so she's looking at 100 points max if she's totally clean and gets really high PCS again, realistically it could be more low-mid 90s.
Risa and Samantha both scored just over 100 for the FS at their last events. For Risa that was with 2 UR triples, an edge call, one level 3 spin that was probably meant to be level 4, and only 2 combos. And her PCS there were lower than what she's gotten at some other junior international events before, so if totally clean, she could probably score around 110 (she scored 106+ last year in the Czech Skate JGP with an edge call, 1 UR triple, and a level 3 spin). Also she does not always get edge calls, so it is possible it won't get called here.
For Samantha, that score was with 1 UR triple, an edge call, and a level 2 spin and a level 1 spin that were probably meant to be level 4s. Her PCS were quite high and the only comparison we have is her one JGP last season where her PCS were much lower. So again, if she's totally clean, probably around 110 points, even though her flutz will undoubtedly get an edge call.
So this is why I have trouble saying that I think Gold will definitely win if she skates well. She could, but her chances are about as good as Cesario or Shoji's, and maybe not even as good because she's an unknown competing at her first international event. And though she's been very consistent this summer, she didn't qualify for nationals last season after all, so I'm wary of her consistency at big-deal events right now.
Samantha had a good showing and a medal at her first event so that will help her case. Anna will probably receive a little push from the judges if she does well b/c of her results last week.
I think Gracie is good but her lack of time in front of the judges will hurt her, especially if everyone else skates very well. If Risa and Samantha make big mistakes that will open the door for Gracie. But if it comes down to everyone skating well, I don't think the judges will give her gold here...
Then again, I could be (and probably am) wrong...
Lack of reputation didn't hurt Lipnitskaia or Miyahara at their first events, it didn't hurt Sotnikova last season as well. I think reputation is more important in seniors, but at JGP it's possible to get high scores if you skate really well even if the judges see you for the first time.
I see this situation as very similar to the one in Austria where 3 very talented skaters, Lam, Li, and Agafonova, each with their own strengths but essentially evenly matched, were vying for the gold. In Austria these 3 ladies all ended up on the podium, and who won gold ended up coming down to who skated a clean FS (Lam) that day.
I think arguably the 3 frontrunners here, Cesario, Shoji, and Gold, are maybe even a little stronger than the 3 frontrunners in Austria, but I wouldn't be surprised if the placements come down to who skates the best FS (or if someone takes herself out of the running in the SP) like they did there. Shershak is like the Sato or Kulgeyko in Austria, she has a chance to spoil and land on the podium/win, but I don't really expect her to. That being said, I didn't think Lam was going to win in Austria because her jumps are tiny and she has no 3-3, but she did because she has all the other qualities and skated a clean FS which the other ladies couldn't manage (and this really was the case because the PCS among the top 3 were all comparable).
It's sort of a similar situation here, Risa is elegant and has difficult tech content but smallish jumps, Samantha has comparable elegance and huge jumps but not the most difficult content, Gracie also has huge jumps and difficult content but IMO is not nearly as elegant or polished as the other two. I assume the PCS will be comparable if all 3 skate well so I think it will really come down to execution in deciding who the winner is.
I'm impressed with Golds jumping ability. How old is she?
Just saw the starting orders. Sam skates 2nd and Risa skates dead last. Gracie skates 2nd in Risa's flight. I just hope they don't hold back on the PCS for Sam. Too bad the SP isn't seeded...I think a head-to-head comparison would be more fair.
How about this?
Gracie Gold is in 1st place with 60.18! Risa in 2nd (55.19), Samantha 3rd (54.74), Yuki Nishino in 4th (50.04) and Anna Shershak in 5th (49.85).
Wow. If Gracie is that good, why did she only get one assignment this year? IIRC, that 60+ is the second highest SP of the season...
it seems that gracie is on a good track to getting gold at this event with a 5 point lead. but, i really want cesario and shoji to make it to the final. would they both make it still if cesario got silver and shoji got bronze?
thanks, i just checked the standings on isu.org interesting fact, if gerli or nishino win gold. they're in the final but i'm am very impress in gerli's technical prowess
Will Gracie have to go through sectionals to qualify for Nationals next year? Forget skating as a Junior there i hope she can skate with the Seniors. Considering the head cases that some of the top US ladies are someone like Gracie who can jump would put a bit of a scare into some of them.
Last edited by Jammers; 10-14-2011 at 06:14 PM.