View Poll Results: Who will medal?

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  • Gracie Gold

    65 72.22%
  • Anna Shershak

    35 38.89%
  • Samantha Cesario

    70 77.78%
  • Risa Shoji

    75 83.33%
  • Yuki Nishino

    6 6.67%
  • Arina Petrova

    2 2.22%
  • Gerli Liinamae

    3 3.33%
  • Juulia Turkkila

    3 3.33%
  • Monika Simancikova

    1 1.11%
  • Isabelle Olsson

    1 1.11%
  • Natalia Popova

    1 1.11%
  • Amelia Schwienbacher

    1 1.11%
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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipso1 View Post
    1. Gracie GOLD USA
    2. Risa SHOJI JPN
    3. Samantha CESARIO USA

    Shoji (26) and Cesario (22) into the JGPF (Cesario would beat Korobeynikova & Agafonova on the points tiebreak, methinks).
    No, Cesario would not qualify. Korobeynikova would qualify over Cesario because she is ahead on the first tiebreaker - a higher finish. Her silver in Romania would outrank Cesario's two bronze medals.

    I agree, however, with your predictions.
    Adelina Sotnikova is the 2014 Olympic champion!

  2. #22
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    As much as I adore, Polina K. I'm really hoping that does not happen. I think that's a silly tiebreak rule to begin with - points over placements, please. Some fields are deeper than others. Samantha was placed in, arguably, the two deepest fields of the entire JGP series.

    This is Cesario's last shot, and with everything she's been through in the past 12 months, this would be a really awesome break for her - lots of WR points so she could possibly get a Senior GP next year.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jenna View Post
    As much as I adore, Polina K. I'm really hoping that does not happen. I think that's a silly tiebreak rule to begin with - points over placements, please. Some fields are deeper than others. Samantha was placed in, arguably, the two deepest fields of the entire JGP series.

    This is Cesario's last shot, and with everything she's been through in the past 12 months, this would be a really awesome break for her - lots of WR points so she could possibly get a Senior GP next year.
    Well let's just hope Samantha is 1st or 2nd then, because even if Risa is 3rd, they'd both be in the final and Polina K would be 1st alternate. And I'm not so convinced Gracie is going to win it all, I like her, but Cesario and Shoji are really good too and have more international experience. But even if Gracie does win, both Risa and Samantha will be in if Samantha is 2nd and Risa 3rd. Or Risa could win and Samantha come in 2nd and Gracie 3rd and then they'd both be in too. Or Samantha wins and Gracie is 2nd and Risa 3rd, or Samantha wins and Risa is 2nd and Gracie 3rd. There are lots of ways both girls can get to the final. I guess it gets trickier if Shershak manages to medal though...

  4. #24
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    In the bottom part of the post, there are some scenarios concerning Risa, Samantha and Anna medaling and where that would put them in the JGPF

    http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2011...eview-jgp.html

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    In the bottom part of the post, there are some scenarios concerning Risa, Samantha and Anna medaling and where that would put them in the JGPF
    Interesting that Gracie Gold isn't considered a "potential spoiler" factor.

    For those who may not have watched Gold's videos from the 2011 summer competition season...
    Skate Detroit SP (56.58): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjTDnBzu3SQ
    Skate Detroit FS Final (109.62): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEG7zOTuiSU

    Gold sometimes will make mistakes in her SP (including when she won her Novice pewter medal at 2010 Nationals); it has been her free skates this summer where she has really been consistent, scoring 99-100+ points 6 different times by my count.
    Last edited by Sylvia; 10-11-2011 at 06:09 PM.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    Interesting that Gracie Gold isn't considered a "potential spoiler" factor.

    For those who may not have watched Gold's videos from the 2011 summer competition season...
    Skate Detroit SP (56.58): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjTDnBzu3SQ
    Skate Detroit FS Final (109.62): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEG7zOTuiSU

    Gold sometimes will make mistakes in her SP (including when she won her Novice pewter medal at 2010 Nationals); it has been her free skates this summer where she has really been consistent, scoring 99-100+ points 6 different times by my count.
    Like I said I think she'll medal but Samantha and Risa are also both capable of and usually post FS scores in the same range, so if they all skate well, who knows what will happen.

    Shershak was clean in her FS in Milan and her PCS were quite high (though deserved, I think potentially they could be a few points lower here just due to there being different judges who might not hand out big PCS so handily as they did in Milan), so she's looking at 100 points max if she's totally clean and gets really high PCS again, realistically it could be more low-mid 90s.

    Risa and Samantha both scored just over 100 for the FS at their last events. For Risa that was with 2 UR triples, an edge call, one level 3 spin that was probably meant to be level 4, and only 2 combos. And her PCS there were lower than what she's gotten at some other junior international events before, so if totally clean, she could probably score around 110 (she scored 106+ last year in the Czech Skate JGP with an edge call, 1 UR triple, and a level 3 spin). Also she does not always get edge calls, so it is possible it won't get called here.
    For Samantha, that score was with 1 UR triple, an edge call, and a level 2 spin and a level 1 spin that were probably meant to be level 4s. Her PCS were quite high and the only comparison we have is her one JGP last season where her PCS were much lower. So again, if she's totally clean, probably around 110 points, even though her flutz will undoubtedly get an edge call.

    So this is why I have trouble saying that I think Gold will definitely win if she skates well. She could, but her chances are about as good as Cesario or Shoji's, and maybe not even as good because she's an unknown competing at her first international event. And though she's been very consistent this summer, she didn't qualify for nationals last season after all, so I'm wary of her consistency at big-deal events right now.

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipso1 View Post
    1. Gracie GOLD USA
    2. Risa SHOJI JPN
    3. Samantha CESARIO USA

    Shoji (26) and Cesario (22) into the JGPF (Cesario would beat Korobeynikova & Agafonova on the points tiebreak, methinks).
    Oops, I meant that Korobyenikova would qualify since her 2nd+4th would beat Samantha's 3rd+3rd place finishes.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    So this is why I have trouble saying that I think Gold will definitely win if she skates well. She could, but her chances are about as good as Cesario or Shoji's, and maybe not even as good because she's an unknown competing at her first international event. And though she's been very consistent this summer, she didn't qualify for nationals last season after all, so I'm wary of her consistency at big-deal events right now.
    I think this will be the biggest factor. She's an unknown coming in at the very last competition of the season. This is Risa's second year on the JGP, 4th at the JGPF and 5th at junior worlds. Her reputation will more than likely be considered when it comes to her scoring. I'd say she's the favorite coming into this...

    Samantha had a good showing and a medal at her first event so that will help her case. Anna will probably receive a little push from the judges if she does well b/c of her results last week.

    I think Gracie is good but her lack of time in front of the judges will hurt her, especially if everyone else skates very well. If Risa and Samantha make big mistakes that will open the door for Gracie. But if it comes down to everyone skating well, I don't think the judges will give her gold here...

    Then again, I could be (and probably am) wrong...

  9. #29
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    Lack of reputation didn't hurt Lipnitskaia or Miyahara at their first events, it didn't hurt Sotnikova last season as well. I think reputation is more important in seniors, but at JGP it's possible to get high scores if you skate really well even if the judges see you for the first time.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Autumn_girl View Post
    Lack of reputation didn't hurt Lipnitskaia or Miyahara at their first events, it didn't hurt Sotnikova last season as well. I think reputation is more important in seniors, but at JGP it's possible to get high scores if you skate really well even if the judges see you for the first time.
    This is true, but they also had great results at their respective nationals whereas Gracie was not even at nationals last season. I'm more worried she skates really nervously and makes mistakes because it's her first international event, not so much that her PCS are going to blow, though if she does skate nervously and make mistakes, they might not be that high.

    I see this situation as very similar to the one in Austria where 3 very talented skaters, Lam, Li, and Agafonova, each with their own strengths but essentially evenly matched, were vying for the gold. In Austria these 3 ladies all ended up on the podium, and who won gold ended up coming down to who skated a clean FS (Lam) that day.

    I think arguably the 3 frontrunners here, Cesario, Shoji, and Gold, are maybe even a little stronger than the 3 frontrunners in Austria, but I wouldn't be surprised if the placements come down to who skates the best FS (or if someone takes herself out of the running in the SP) like they did there. Shershak is like the Sato or Kulgeyko in Austria, she has a chance to spoil and land on the podium/win, but I don't really expect her to. That being said, I didn't think Lam was going to win in Austria because her jumps are tiny and she has no 3-3, but she did because she has all the other qualities and skated a clean FS which the other ladies couldn't manage (and this really was the case because the PCS among the top 3 were all comparable).

    It's sort of a similar situation here, Risa is elegant and has difficult tech content but smallish jumps, Samantha has comparable elegance and huge jumps but not the most difficult content, Gracie also has huge jumps and difficult content but IMO is not nearly as elegant or polished as the other two. I assume the PCS will be comparable if all 3 skate well so I think it will really come down to execution in deciding who the winner is.

  11. #31
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    I'm impressed with Golds jumping ability. How old is she?

  12. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I'm impressed with Golds jumping ability. How old is she?
    16.

  13. #33
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    Just saw the starting orders. Sam skates 2nd and Risa skates dead last. Gracie skates 2nd in Risa's flight. I just hope they don't hold back on the PCS for Sam. Too bad the SP isn't seeded...I think a head-to-head comparison would be more fair.

  14. #34
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    How about this?

    Gracie Gold is in 1st place with 60.18! Risa in 2nd (55.19), Samantha 3rd (54.74), Yuki Nishino in 4th (50.04) and Anna Shershak in 5th (49.85).

    Wow. If Gracie is that good, why did she only get one assignment this year? IIRC, that 60+ is the second highest SP of the season...

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post

    Wow. If Gracie is that good, why did she only get one assignment this year? IIRC, that 60+ is the second highest SP of the season...
    Yeah Gracie!!! and that's what i'm also wondering, even though the battle is only half over, the fact that she was able to put up such a monster SP score in her first Int. competition is very impressive, she should've definitely received two assingments, but oh well, hopefully she kicks butt again in the LP and walks away with the gold medal

  16. #36
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    it seems that gracie is on a good track to getting gold at this event with a 5 point lead. but, i really want cesario and shoji to make it to the final. would they both make it still if cesario got silver and shoji got bronze?

  17. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by icellist View Post
    would they both make it still if cesario got silver and shoji got bronze?
    Yes, both would have 24 points (1 silver, 1 bronze) and that would be enough for them to qualify in 5th & 6th position.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by icellist View Post
    it seems that gracie is on a good track to getting gold at this event with a 5 point lead. but, i really want cesario and shoji to make it to the final. would they both make it still if cesario got silver and shoji got bronze?
    Yes. So even though I'd ideally want Risa to finish higher than 3rd, this seems like the best way for things to pan out, because I really love Samantha too and want to see them both in the final. Given the field at this event and the one at Samantha's first, I can see both girls faring quite well in the final despite being the last two qualifiers if that is what ends up happening. But ice is slippery, so we will see what happens. Gracie has a good lead but it's not huge, and we did see Lam overcome a 6 point deficit from the SP to come from behind and win it all in Austria, as did Shelepen in Latvia. Great field though, the top 3 are all incredible in their own unique way.

  19. #39
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    thanks, i just checked the standings on isu.org interesting fact, if gerli or nishino win gold. they're in the final but i'm am very impress in gerli's technical prowess

  20. #40
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    Will Gracie have to go through sectionals to qualify for Nationals next year? Forget skating as a Junior there i hope she can skate with the Seniors. Considering the head cases that some of the top US ladies are someone like Gracie who can jump would put a bit of a scare into some of them.
    Last edited by Jammers; 10-14-2011 at 06:14 PM.

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