Yu na Kim
Virtue & Moir
I can't answer !
I have absolutely no idea of how well all those Olympic champions will skate this year...so, I can't see anything in 3 years !
I think nobody. 2010 OG champions have so many injuries - Yu-Na have problems with her back (if she were healthy i amd sure she will fight with Mao for gold in Sochi again), Tessa-legs, Evan - so many problems...
And who knbow, what will happened during next 3 years?
I think Yuna has a great chance if she gets her back in the game. I like Evan, but I am not sure he can compete with some of the current skaters. He is know as a hard worker so maybe he can.
I don't think Yuna will come back for next Olympic. I saw her exhibition skating of this year's Worlds. I think I have never seen such an absent-minded skating before even at exhibitions. Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing, so don't me. It's just my impression, and I felt she had no intention to interpret the music there. She was just skating through the music and she looked like she had no interest in how the audience was feeling and how the audience would respond. She looked like she was just doing her duty. I felt that her passion for figure skating might have been decreasing.
Yuna was fantastic at Vancouber Olympics. She was the queen back then. But IMO she peaked at the Olympics and is now going downhill little by little. Maybe she is too busy outside the rink. Maybe she is interested in many other things than fs. Even her show programs are not so impressive. (again it's MO, so don't me.) For me it's hard to predict that we will see her again at the next Olympics. But that's just my impression, people, so don't me.
IIRC, Opening skater's injury to public before competition had never helped him/her/them in any case in skating history.
This too will pass away.
if virture and moir goes i see them repeating, as first
however i can also see none make it to the next olympics 2014
so it would be
1) virture and moir provided they go
2) none -most likely none will go to the olympics,
evan-doing tours, and whatnot.
virture and moir doing the same
yu-na -doing skating shows, charity events, etc
3j) evan winning if he goes.
Virtue/Moir if nothing slows them down and they choose to go for a second Olympics.
Yuna seems to be out of shape but most of all she seems to have lost her competitive drive.
Evan can't possibly win unless Chan and others don't make it to Sochi.
About Chan, I agree, but who are the 'others'? I don't see anyone on the horizon right now that can be good and consistent. Evan won because he did not make a mistake (omitting the quad certainly helped). I am not convinced yet that Chan can handle the Olympic pressure. May be he can, may be not. IMO Evan has as much chance of winning as other skaters in the field, and I am not anywhere close to being his fan.
Also if the field was so weak by Sochi that 28 year old Evan were even one of Chan's biggest competitors Chan wouldnt need to worry about Olympic pressure since that would just mean he still has the same 5 or 6 fall cushion he has now. You may think Evan has as much chance to win as the others on this list but you are in the vast minority as the poll indicates.
If V&M are motivated and remain healthy they have the most potential of the three choices but three years is a long time so I don't think there'll be any repeats.
Also think it's far too early to be even debating men. The wear and tear on their bodies over the next three years skating CoP programs AND trying to add quads the 2014 OGM is just as likely someone not even on our radar yet, will probably meet him some time in 2013.
Tessa and Scott: Thank you
I did not realize Lysacek would be 28 by 2014. That is 'old' for FS, though Plush did fine at age 27.
Sure we can build all sorts of scenarios such as Chan won't be able to handle the pressure, Kozuka won't confirm, Gachinski will catch a flu like Yagudin in '98 and so on but in my understanding, this poll is about which of the 2010 champions might win a new gold based on what we saw last season, our own perceptions of their levels and how much we think they and other skaters can grow and improve. In other words, it isn't anything like a crystal ball, so maybe if you start a new poll on the topic next summer, you will get different results.
V&M are winning this poll by a huge margin, and I voted for them too, but I just have a feeling that they may not even be around in 2014. If they lose the 2012 worlds, they may decide not to stick around, particularly if the injuries are persistent.
I dont expect Evan to even bother trying to compete in Sochi anyway. If he even follows through in his comeback this season he will bail after this season of mediocre results and finishing behind Chan by 40 points in any head to head meetings. If he isnt right up with Chan (and he wont be) he isnt going to sacrifice Stars on Ice and his current life of luxury when he already has all the major amateur titles.
PS- While I do expect Chan to win the next Olympic Gold (and not because I am a fan since truthfully I dislike him even more than Lysacek, I just a realist on things regardless if I am a fan), I do agree he isnt a mortal lock. Things can change in 3 years. All I know is that if someone does beat him it will likely be a young up and comer (eg- probably not even Kozuka either, but someone as young as Chan or younger). It wont be a skater with a clearly inferior skill set to someone like Chan in every respect, who is aging and already peaked (eg- Lysacek).
Last edited by judgejudy27; 08-27-2011 at 10:55 PM.
With each quadrennial it seems to become less and less likely for a former Olympic champion to win again. I can't imagine any former gold medalist winning in 2014, but here's what I think about the chances anyways:
- Kim: Perhaps. She certainly has the skills set, and at her best she'll probably still be at the top. She may be slightly uninspired recently, but that says little about her state before the Olympics.
- Virtue/Moir: Perhaps. The Russian teams have a huge home advantage by 2014, and Davis/White are still in the picture. The Shibs too.
- Lysacek: Unlikely. There's no sentimental feeling for him to win in 2014 (which factors greatly), especially with many of the skaters already having much higher base scores. Chan's scores, in particular, have been astronomically high.
- Shen/Zhao: Virtually impossible. In 2010 they did face supposedly stiff competition from S/S, but they skated poorly that season and S/Z had the sentimental advantage. They still won pretty deservedly in Vancouver. But in 2014, 1. they'll have much stronger competition from S/S and V/T, 2. they're WAY too old, 3. I don't see why they'll want to go for the Olympics again.