View Poll Results: Can Ilinykh and Katsalapov win Olympic Gold in 2014?

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  • Yes

    38 21.97%
  • No

    70 40.46%
  • Too early to tell

    65 37.57%
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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by julieann View Post
    You're assuming D/W and V/M will be still be around in 2014.
    More likely to be than P/B.

    Actually no, S/S didn't get the bronze medal over P/B because of their superior skills. They got the medal because Fabian had an unfortunate 'fluky' fall and took his painter with him
    The fact in a previous thread you dismissed my saying Savchenko & Savchenko losing to Dube & Davison and Mukhortova & Trankov at Eric Bompard was basically a fluke since they had their worst competition ever, and have never come close to losing to either team any other time; yet now are calling P/B losing to the Shibutanis a fluke because they fell, is quite amusing at least, hypocritical at best.

    P/B making costly mistakes in high profile competitions is also far from a fluke. It is pretty much their history.

    P/B won gold in every competition last year except a silver in the GPF, and a 4th a worlds. How did the Shibs do?

    Did they win a gold in anything last season?
    Which team came in with a high entry seed and had the benefit of weak fields with no higher ranked teams to compete against in their grand prix assignments. Which team is brand new on the scene, and has a huge margin of potential improvement still.

    How many events would Pechalat & Bourzat have won if Davis & White were in the field with them, as was the case in both of the Shibutani's grand prix events. How many years of senior competition did it take Pechalat & Bourzat to finally win a senior event gold medal. Yeah I thought so.

    Sure, they have time to break up and get hurt.
    Anyone could break up and get hurt. More likely an older team that has just had a coaching split, gone through years of frusteration, and has alot of mileage on their bodies, than a very young fresh team of siblings who medalled at their first Worlds.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domshabfan View Post
    The most puzzling or your statement is D/W superior to A/P. A/P is one of the most innovative and one of teh most wonderful team to skate. D/W are good technically but not artistically.
    P/B have not been within about 3 falls of points of D/W in a head to head competition since the 2008 Worlds. From a competitive standpoint a discussion which team is better is pointless, irregardless of style preferences from a viewing standpoint.

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by Domshabfan View Post

    The most puzzling or your statement is D/W superior to A/P. A/P is one of the most innovative and one of teh most wonderful team to skate. D/W are good technically but not artistically.
    I find D&W artistic, and not just technical. In ice dance you don't win medals without having artistry. It is the most artistic/creative discipline out of the 4. D&W skating to Bollywood music was very innovative.

  4. #64

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    DW had a free dance the past season that was totally void of anything other than tech. Talking about their 09/10 OD is sad. V/M were so much on the level of their OLympic season but D/W was all tech because their program was a failure. But it was better to keep that failure of a FD because changing is a sign of weakness and their tech didn't suffer.

    S/S still would have been 4th at worlds without PB fall. So that's all you need to know. I/K placed 10th in the FD!

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domshabfan View Post
    The most puzzling or your statement is D/W superior to A/P. A/P is one of the most innovative and one of teh most wonderful team to skate. D/W are good technically but not artistically.
    I totally agree. A/P are totally in a different league than D/W. D/W are great technical skaters, but I feel a lack of chemistry, emotion, and artistry when I see these two skate.

    Two and a half years is a long time. Lots of unexpected break-ups, injuries, and retirements may happen. Expect to see some European teams really challenging V/M and D/W for the top spots. Never underestimate the power of politiking.
    Last edited by a56; 08-20-2011 at 10:45 AM.

  6. #66
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    1. Yeah, it's definitely more likely that V/M and D/W stick around to Sochi before P/B.

    2. That said, only D/W are "guaranteed" to be there (knock on wood). F/S intended to come back this season but an injury to her made that less likely and Scali seems to be enjoying Detroit as a coach. V/M are in the "one-season-at-a-time" mode, but I suspect both have Sochi as a goal, but if they miss it, they won't care much. P/B are the only extant team that has been to Turin (!). I suspect what matters to them is just how competitive they can be. If they medal in a close race for third in Nice, I just don't see them sticking around to be surpassed by the next generation the way the Canton quartet did for them.

    3. DomShabfan, I question your assertion that because it happened to D/W (and A/P in Nagano, K/P in Sarejevo, I might add) we can't rule it out for P/B. But I would be surprised to see them continue after Nice.

    4. I tend to think that the circumstances that allowed V/M and D/W their rise can't be replicated in the run-up to Sochi. I also wonder how much political capital is going to be expended in dance, when I suspect that Russia wants ladies and pairs more than the other two (the former because they've never had an OGM, the latter because of that epic 40 year run).

    5. How do you dump the Olympic champions anyway? Particularly if they don't skate poorly (a la Plushenko or Petrenko). I tend to think that V/M practically act as insurance for D/W. They're viewed so closely together that one would dump both, and I don't think that would realistically happen for V/M. That said, if V/M retire and the Shibs do close the gap (a la D/W on B/A, which again, circumstances)

    6. a56, I was startled to see that the gap between the Canton quartet and the rest of the teams remained virtually unchanced between 2010 Worlds and 2011 Worlds, and that change was likely to the collapsing of two events into one. If the gap doesn't close substantially by 2012 Worlds, I'd almost say game over. Which would be foolish, admittedly, but that wouldn't stop me from saying it.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Proustable View Post
    Certainly, it's unlikely any of these teams retire before Sochi, the way Dubreuil/Lauzon did (allowing V/M to take the top spot in Canada without a fight).
    I respect Dubreuil/Lauzon and their achievements but how long did it take them to get to the top and how long V/M? So perhaps it was clever of D/L not to try to fight for the top spot in Canada back then. Just like Jeffrey Buttle versus Patrick Chan if Buttle hadn't retired.

    It's a bit different I think with B/S because they are still young and have time to grow. However, I/K strike me as having higher potential than B/S but I could be wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I loved A&P but technically they would be blown away by both V&M and D&W, even if artistically they would stand a decent chance..

    While I too loved A/P and still do, I have to agree with you D/W and V/M are better as technicians of ice dancing. It would be enough to compare A/P's OD of 2002 with V/M's and D/W's of 2010. I don't necessarily mean the difficulty of their elements but how those programs were executed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mayra View Post
    Did I spell easily wrong?

    'To soon to tell' would be the right option for now IMO. Unless you have a crystal ball that helps you see easily and far into the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by a56 View Post
    Never underestimate the power of politiking.

    Oh I never do, especially when it comes to ice dancing.

  8. #68

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    My two cents: Yes, they can!
    "I'm not in this world to live up to your expectations and you're not in this world to live up to mine."

    Bruce Lee

  9. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by a56 View Post
    I totally agree. A/P are totally in a different league than D/W. D/W are great technical skaters, but I feel a lack of chemistry, emotion, and artistry when I see these two skate.

    Two and a half years is a long time. Lots of unexpected break-ups, injuries, and retirements may happen. Expect to see some European teams really challenging V/M and D/W for the top spots. Never underestimate the power of politiking.
    It's hard to compare skaters from the 6.0 era to the COP era. The requirements force the skaters to skate a certain way. Now they don't have have a choice of music (it MUST be upbeat, and not sad!).

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    More likely to be than P/B.
    You can't say anything for sure, look at S/Z

    The fact in a previous thread you dismissed my saying Savchenko & Savchenko losing to Dube & Davison and Mukhortova & Trankov at Eric Bompard was basically a fluke since they had their worst competition ever, and have never come close to losing to either team any other time; yet now are calling P/B losing to the Shibutanis a fluke because they fell, is quite amusing at least, hypocritical at best.

    P/B making costly mistakes in high profile competitions is also far from a fluke. It is pretty much their history.
    What thread? Those teams haven't been mentioned here. But S/S meltdown at TEB was quite different the P/B, Fabian's foot slipped and he fell and took his partner partner down with him, they only lost by 1/4 of a point, they lost the medal, the Shibs didn't win it, they is a difference. If he didn't fall how many points would they have won by? S/S messed up 7 out of 12 elements that was far more than a skate coming out from under you. The two programs aren't even comparable in terms of mistakes.

    Which team came in with a high entry seed and had the benefit of weak fields with no higher ranked teams to compete against in their grand prix assignments. Which team is brand new on the scene, and has a huge margin of potential improvement still.

    How many events would Pechalat & Bourzat have won if Davis & White were in the field with them, as was the case in both of the Shibutani's grand prix events. How many years of senior competition did it take Pechalat & Bourzat to finally win a senior event gold medal. Yeah I thought so.
    So you use the weaker field arguement...typical, how many golds would the shibs have won last season if they were at the same competition as P/B? Would they have won euros?

    Anyone could break up and get hurt. More likely an older team that has just had a coaching split, gone through years of frusteration, and has alot of mileage on their bodies, than a very young fresh team of siblings who medalled at their first Worlds.
    Dube and Davison medaled once at worlds too. And I would bet more on a team who is re-energized with a new coaching change than a team who is third best with a group whose coaches a spread quite thin already.

    I'll say it again because you seem quit thick, you have no idea what will go on this season much less in 2014.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vash01 View Post
    It's hard to compare skaters from the 6.0 era to the COP era. The requirements force the skaters to skate a certain way. Now they don't have have a choice of music (it MUST be upbeat, and not sad!).
    I agree here. I'm A/P uber and for me, they're the best couple ever, but that doesn't mean I can't admire D/W or I/K or any other couples. COP changed the ice dancing incredibly, so yes, now, the dances are doing the programs that are harder technicaly. A/P didn't have to do such a difficult choreographies, they still were technicaly far the best couple of their generation, they concentated on another things. I'm sur if they skated now, they would be able to do COP difficult programs. But in their era, the difficulty and not even execution wasn't what really counted...just look at 2001 worlds, they had incredibly difficult Beethowen FD and still lost to F-P/M with quitte easy dance and got such a ridiculous marks as 5,6 for technical merit.
    D/W are for me clearly one of the best couples ever. They're technicaly great but I don't agree they're weak artisticaly.I find them much more interesting than V/M, for example. Compared to A/P, they lack that incredibly chemistry between them, but there are clearly programs of theirs I will always remember, such as Bollywood OD, Samson and Dalilah,...

    As for I/K, they're very talented, but for me, appart their OD from this season, their programs aren't very good. I think anything can happen, it depends on their competitors, on their programs, on their ability to fight with the stress, but one think I'm sur...they will have a big big big political support in Sotchi

  12. #72

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    Quote Originally Posted by julieann View Post
    And I would bet more on a team who is re-energized with a new coaching change than a team who is third best with a group whose coaches a spread quite thin already.
    Either way, it'd be foolish to make a bet now 3 years before the Olympics.
    "Corporation, n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility." - Ambrose Bierce

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by julieann View Post
    I'll say it again because you seem quit thick
    Before you spread around insults you should be careful you are using first spelling and grammar while doing so.

    Also funny how nobody in this thread agrees with you on P/B, and most have noted they also expect them to retire altogether by 2012. I guess the rest of us are just in a dream World to not realize a veteran team who has never medalled at World isnt going to medal at the next Olympics 3 years away with 2 much younger teams light years beyond them, and a slew of other much younger teams also coming up.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    .....

    P/B making costly mistakes in high profile competitions is also far from a fluke. It is pretty much their history.

    Which team came in with a high entry seed and had the benefit of weak fields with no higher ranked teams to compete against in their grand prix assignments. Which team is brand new on the scene, and has a huge margin of potential improvement still.

    How many events would Pechalat & Bourzat have won if Davis & White were in the field with them, as was the case in both of the Shibutani's grand prix events. How many years of senior competition did it take Pechalat & Bourzat to finally win a senior event gold medal. Yeah I thought so.

    ......
    Unfortunately it is true that P&B had/have had a history of messing up when it counted but for a while it looked as if they had overcome that. I do feel that Nathalie and Fabian are messing up less than they had in the past but sadly when they do miss it has been at a major event rather than a GP event.

    As for P&B only winning GP events because D&W weren't around, well we could use that reasoning for many a dance couple. In fact part of D&W's rise (as well as the Shubutani's and other couples) and continued top or near top rankings could be attributed to the fact that for the first time since forever the icedance field was dramatically depleted after the last Olympics. In the past there were always a number of very strong teams who were "waiting their turn" and who perhaps had been marked down because they were not the number one team in their country.

    Heck, D&W and even V&M were able to benefit from an injured Maxim Shabalin. Had Max and the Russian Federation not made the choices they did in regards to when Max returned from his first surgery, V&M (as much as I love them) probably wouldn't be the reigning Olympic champions and D&W might "only" be Olympic bronze medalists.

    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    P/B have not been within about 3 falls of points of D/W in a head to head competition since the 2008 Worlds. From a competitive standpoint a discussion which team is better is pointless, irregardless of style preferences from a viewing standpoint.
    That doesn't necessarily mean they shouldn't have been. Every few years it seems there is a shift in which coach and team of skaters is viewed as the top banana by the judges and at the moment it seems to be Igor's/Canton's turn. I think as a group Canton is overrated. Except for a clean (and at 100%) V&M and despite what message the judges have been sending I don't think the rest of the Canton teams are that untouchable. It's probably true that D&W can stay ahead of the current field as is except for V&M but with some finetuning I'm still (perhaps stubbornly) feeling that I&K can compete head to head with them.

    I'm not sure why there is such a rush to dismiss P&B and especially I&K. Also why assume that I&K in particular will remain the same team they were last season. It's probably a longshot for I&K to win the gold but IMHO not impossible. No one knows what the future holds.

  15. #75
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    I agree Davis & White are a bit overrated by the judges at times, and perhaps all the Canton teams are to a degree at the moment, but there is no indication that will change soon. Ice dancing even today is very political. Judges develop their favorites, and it usually takes something drastic for them to fall out of love with particular teams.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by a56 View Post
    .....
    Two and a half years is a long time. Lots of unexpected break-ups, injuries, and retirements may happen. Expect to see some European teams really challenging V/M and D/W for the top spots. Never underestimate the power of politiking.
    IMO some of the European/Russian teams who will/may challenge D&W and V&M can challenge even without politicking.

    It is funny that when/if European and Russian teams do well it's due to powerful politicks but the NA's continue to be seen who don't play the game. The atmosphere in icedance hasn't changed a bit; it's just accepted and ignored because NA's teams are at the top right now.

    IMO everyone plays the game, it's only that certain federations get called on it more than others.

    eta:
    a56, I wasn't directly attackly you. Just putting down what what in my head and thinking that many people still feel that way when it comes to only the Russian/European couples.
    Last edited by Carmen Ovsiannikov; 08-21-2011 at 04:02 AM.

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by VIETgrlTerifa View Post
    Either way, it'd be foolish to make a bet now 3 years before the Olympics.
    Yes, that is the point I'm trying to make no matter if it's D/W, S/S, I/K, P/B, V/M or whoever.

    Quote Originally Posted by julieann View Post
    I'll say it again because you seem quit thick, you have no idea what will go on this season much less in 2014.
    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Before you spread around insults you should be careful you are using first spelling and grammar while doing so.
    My spelling is fine, so is my grammar, if you need to insult the fact I forgot to press an 'e' at the end of a word; I'm going to let you have that.

    Also funny how nobody in this thread agrees with you on P/B, and most have noted they also expect them to retire altogether by 2012.
    I don't need to have anyone else agree with me, I'm ok with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    I agree Davis & White are a bit overrated by the judges at times, and perhaps all the Canton teams are to a degree at the moment, but there is no indication that will change soon.

  18. #78

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Ovsiannikov View Post
    IMO some of the European/Russian teams who will/may challenge D&W and V&M can challenge even without politicking.

    It is funny that when/if European and Russian teams do well it's due to powerful politicks but the NA's continue to be seen who don't play the game. The atmosphere in icedance hasn't changed a bit; it's just accepted and ignored because NA's teams are at the top right now.

    IMO everyone plays the game, it's only that certain federations get called on it more than others.

    eta:
    a56, I wasn't directly attackly you. Just putting down what what in my head and thinking that many people still feel that way when it comes to only the Russian/European couples.
    I agree with this. There are politics in FS- not just ice dance- and they apply to all parts of the world.

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    So other than Torvill & Dean, Klimova & Ponomarenko, and Gritschuk & Platov, who are all probably superior at this point, and maybe Pakhomova & Gorshkov and Krylova & Ovsiannikov, who is left that was better.
    Usova and Zhulin.
    "The team doesn't get automatic capacity because management is mad" -- Greg Smith, agile guy

  20. #80

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Ovsiannikov View Post
    IMO some of the European/Russian teams who will/may challenge D&W and V&M can challenge even without politicking.

    It is funny that when/if European and Russian teams do well it's due to powerful politicks but the NA's continue to be seen who don't play the game. The atmosphere in icedance hasn't changed a bit; it's just accepted and ignored because NA's teams are at the top right now.

    IMO everyone plays the game, it's only that certain federations get called on it more than others.
    Exactly my thoughts.It seems that now that NA teams are on top, everything is ok and nobody ever complains about the results.It's only bad Europe that fixes results to win.

    I think it's too early to predict Sochi.I/K may win,as B/S,R/T,S/S,P/B and the usual suspects D/W and V/M can win .I don't think we'll know until that season.
    And no one can say that 21 year old teams have peaked,we can't say that even for P/B.With sports,you never know when an athlete peaks,until you see him/her peak.
    It's perfectly ok to hate a team,but in B/S's case in particular sometimes it seems that they've either slaughtered the entire family of some posters or are a danger for mankind.As I can see,I/K are becoming a public threat as well,and P/B are on their way.
    It's ok, don't worry,they will wait until all of the other teams have retired and get their titles at 50. Plushenko can do it, why can't they?
    Last edited by zotza; 08-21-2011 at 12:22 PM.

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