Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

[RumbleFish]

There are still Liza, you know. She has the cleanest jump technique in the World right now and is going to do 3A. I expect (and hope) a good rivalry between her and Adelina

I like Tuk a lot, but this statement just isn't true. She doesn't have THE cleanest jump technique in the world. I also doubt that she will ever have a consistent 3A.

[Jenna]

Yup. Sotnikova/Tuktamisheva, Plushenko, or V/T. Possibly I/K but, they'll have a better chance in 2018.

[olympic]

Who do you expect to win gold in Sochi if not Sotnikova. Kim seems bored and not even wanting to compete anymore. Mao is a big question mark at this point. The Americans arent likely to produce the gold medalist.

I will say that the US dry spell has been going on for quite some time and can't last forever considering the deep talent here, both Jr. and Sr. I just have a hunch that at least one of them will be a gold medal challenger in a couple of years

[pinky166]

Sotnikova wasn't perfect either, and it was Zawadzki's best competition in the whole season actually... To see how dominating Adelina is we should wait at least for Grand Prix and see her scores as a senior competing with seniors. Right now I would say the judges really like what they see.



There are still Liza, you know. She has the cleanest jump technique in the World right now and is going to do 3A. I expect (and hope) a good rivalry between her and Adelina

13 points is a large margin of victory IMO, and Adelina had a mistake in both of her programs at Junior Worlds, which wasn't her best competition of the season, unlike Agnes who made more mistakes at all her other events. Adelina won every competition she entered last season and only fell once! And this was as a 14 year old in the midst of puberty - she grew 5 centimeters over the course of the season and was still reeling off the money combos like they were doubles! If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.

As for Liza, I don't think she will surpass Adelina, at least not any time soon. She has good technique, but her jumps are not very big even now and she does not look anywhere close to full grown. Also, she is not as consistent as Adelina, her 3-3 is often MIA and a lot of her good results last season were due to PCS she was lucky enough to receive for error ridden performances. If she is having such issues now, I fear for what happens when she finishes puberty. Yes, she has 3a, but she hasn't even done it in competition and when you are competing against someone who has no 3a but everything else, it won't make a difference - at least it didn't for Mao. Adelina is comparable to Yuna (jumps are as big if not bigger) but has potential to be even better because she points her toes and has a more balletic presence on the ice, something Yuna never had. Liza I think will fare more like Mao if she continues to be inconsistent and does not get her 3-3 down solid.

I think Adelina will most likely win in Sochi barring injury or a severe growthspurt/body change, but where she grew 5 cm last season I tend to think that won't happen. Also, there are so many talented pairs in Russia that I could definitely see them winning that discipline too. And who knows, maybe I&K will finally skate up to their potential, if they do they could spoil for gold. In any event, I expect Russia to be a major factor at the 2014 games, regardless of if they end up winning any gold medals or not.

[Vash01]

Pressure is a big factor in big competitions and particularly in the Olympics. We don't know yet if any of these young skaters has the ability to handle pressure. Yu na clearly has it, but she may not even be competing by then. It will be interesting to see if we see (once again, like in 2002) a lady with the least amount of pressure win the gold, or if we will see a tough as nails (like Yu na) lady win. She could be from any country.

[julieann]

Who do you expect to win gold in Sochi if not Sotnikova.

Who do you expect to win gold in Nagano if not Kwan? Because it's too early to make predictions...that's why.

At the end of the 08-09 season S/S were gold medal favorites and ended up winning the bronze and it had nothing to do with S/Z coming back, they just had a bad season. So you just never know what can happen.

[Autumn_girl]

I like Tuk a lot, but this statement just isn't true. She doesn't have THE cleanest jump technique in the world. I also doubt that she will ever have a consistent 3A.

Then which lady skater has the cleanest technique in the World right now if not Liza?

Who do you expect to win gold in Nagano if not Kwan? Because it's too early to make predictions...that's why.

True. And after Mao's win at GPF 2005 I think pretty much everyone were sure they saw an Olympic champion 2010, but we all know what happened. The rivalry between Liza and Adelina reminds me a lot of Mao and Yuna. Right now Adelina is a clear winner, but it still can change

[Vash01]

It's nice to have that kind of rivalry in your own country. It makes both skaters stronger. Classic example: Yagudin and Plushenko.

[FarFarAway]

What an interesting discussion, but somewhat rather suprising, actually.

I voted yes, it looks like at least V/T and Sotnikova will be contenders for gold.

What I really cannot still understand is why people think that Liza and Adelina will surely have a claim for gold by 2014. If someone explains me this idea, I will be just very much obliged. They are both very young, they will start on Euros and Worlds only the NEXT season due to age reasons and in this season they are able to participate only at the GP cups. So no one actually have seen them performing at the serious senior competitions so far, but everyone is sure the gold in Sochi is almost theirs. But they will be right in the middle of the growing up process by that timeNo one knows yet how it will influence the jumps and all the other things in their skating.

As for me, I believe we need to first see them at Euros and (hopefully) Worlds, but this will happen only in 2012-2013 season.

I think it's too early to predict anything now. I just hope Russia learns that they need to train all the athletes in case something happens to their "stars" that they didn't anticipate.

I guess all the athletes are trained. What we really need is to crash that veni-vidi-vici stereotype.

Yup. Sotnikova/Tuktamisheva, Plushenko, or V/T. Possibly I/K but, they'll have a better chance in 2018.

Plushenko again
We actually still don't know if he is going to have any starts this season and you still firmly believe he is one of the candidates for gold?

For winning gold in Sochi he will need to have a lot of work to be done. The skating changed and changed greatly since he last skated. If he returns with the programs of the same type, he will surely secure himself a place in the top 15, but definitely not in the top 3.

[julieann]

I guess all the athletes are trained.

I guess I should have said trained 'equally'

I'm hoping Stolbova/Klimov and Iliushechkina/Maisuradze are going getting the same attention as Volosozhar/Trankov and Kavaguti and Smirnov. So no matter who gets sent they are top form.

[Jenna]

Plushenko again
We actually still don't know if he is going to have any starts this season and you still firmly believe he is one of the candidates for gold?

For winning gold in Sochi he will need to have a lot of work to be done. The skating changed and changed greatly since he last skated. If he returns with the programs of the same type, he will surely secure himself a place in the top 15, but definitely not in the top 3.

This thread is about predictions, NOT certainties. If Plushenko is skating in 2014 and he skates like he did in Vancouver, yes, I do believe he has a shot at the gold. I don't "firmly" believe anything, though. It's two and a half years out. That's just you putting words in my mouth.

[RumbleFish]

Then which lady skater has the cleanest technique in the World right now if not Liza?

You would have to define cleanest technique first. Do you mean take-off edges? speed in and out of her jumps? or abilities to begin and finish rotations in the air?

I saw Tuk skate at the Jr Worlds and was somewhat disappointed at her jumps. She seems to have correct take-off edges but her jumps were smaller than I had expected, and didn't have great flow on landings.

It might have been her off day, but I certainly didn't see signs of THE cleanest technique. If you had said ONE OF cleanest techniques, I wouldn't have challenged your statement though.

[justAfsfan]

I'm fine with any Russia's win except men or silver (if gold is locked for Chan!!!).

As I cannot stand the fact that Artur Gachinski might get on podium just because he land all jumps regardless of how his program will be.

[FarFarAway]

If Plushenko is skating in 2014 and he skates like he did in Vancouver, yes, I do believe he has a shot at the gold.

If he skates in Sochi like he did in Vancouver he has a shot at the bronze at the maximum under the best possible circumstances. I would give the gold to Chan in this case definitely.

Plushenko's jumps are great, but since not long ago skating is not only about jumps

[Autumn_girl]

You would have to define cleanest technique first. Do you mean take-off edges? speed in and out of her jumps? or abilities to begin and finish rotations in the air?

I saw Tuk skate at the Jr Worlds and was somewhat disappointed at her jumps. She seems to have correct take-off edges but her jumps were smaller than I had expected, and didn't have great flow on landings.

It might have been her off day, but I certainly didn't see signs of THE cleanest technique. If you had said ONE OF cleanest techniques, I wouldn't have challenged your statement though.

All of these actually. Liza has it all. She was nervious in the LP at JW and it was visible, her landings were a bit shaky, but when she's on her jumps are gorgeous. Look at her jumps in SP for example, great flow and speed, fully rotated, beautiful 3Lz-3T combo, tano 2A, and I especially liked her 3Lo landing. And she jumps really high considering how tiny she is.
I really don't know which nowdays lady skater has cleaner technique. Kim? Her toe jumps are great, but edge jumps - not so much, and she didn't do 3Lo for a while now. Other ladies have problems with edges and/or rotation of their jumps

[babayaga]

What an interesting discussion, but somewhat rather suprising, actually.



What I really cannot still understand is why people think that Liza and Adelina will surely have a claim for gold by 2014. If someone explains me this idea, I will be just very much obliged. They are both very young, they will start on Euros and Worlds only the NEXT season due to age reasons and in this season they are able to participate only at the GP cups. So no one actually have seen them performing at the serious senior competitions so far, but everyone is sure the gold in Sochi is almost theirs. But they will be right in the middle of the growing up process by that timeNo one knows yet how it will influence the jumps and all the other things in their skating.

Of course I wasn't trying to say that "the gold in Sochi is almost hers" and I agree with the rest of what you say. Let me rephrase my statement a bit more carefully: given what I see from her today I think she could be a contender for gold in 2014 if everything goes well. She is not there yet but she has what it takes.

[RumbleFish]

All of these actually. Liza has it all. She was nervious in the LP at JW and it was visible, her landings were a bit shaky, but when she's on her jumps are gorgeous. Look at her jumps in SP for example, great flow and speed, fully rotated, beautiful 3Lz-3T combo, tano 2A, and I especially liked her 3Lo landing. And she jumps really high considering how tiny she is.
I really don't know which nowdays lady skater has cleaner technique. Kim? Her toe jumps are great, but edge jumps - not so much, and she didn't do 3Lo for a while now. Other ladies have problems with edges and/or rotation of their jumps

Please don't get me wrong. I love Tuk's jumps, and I have repeatedly said on this board that either her or Sot has great chance of winning the GPF.

My problem is crowning her with title of having The Cleanest Technique. Don't you think it is a little premature since she has shown so little?

As for which skater has the best technique, I can only determine by looking at who did the best in a given day.

[miki88]

Because I like Adelina's skating, I will not predict her to get the gold in Sochi, since we all know what tends to happen when we start crowning people four years in advance. But I'm unsure if Adelina really has the advantage over Liz in terms of jumps. Liz's jumps aren't as big but she does have better technique. I wonder if the judges will start scrutinizing Adelina's lutz more after she becomes a senior. It's borderline at least to me. Adelina has advantage over Liz in consistency and presentation at this point, but these things can change in the future.

[Autumn_girl]

Please don't get me wrong. I love Tuk's jumps, and I have repeatedly said on this board that either her or Sot has great chance of winning the GPF.

My problem is crowning her with title of having The Cleanest Technique. Don't you think it is a little premature since she has shown so little?

As for which skater has the best technique, I can only determine by looking at who did the best in a given day.

You talk about an execution of the jumps on one given day or competition and I mean an overall quality of the jumps. Everything about Liza's jumps is just fine: entrances, air positions and landings. Maybe Yuna has better 3Lz-3T and Adelina has better 2A-3T combo, etc., but when it comes to the full set of triples Liza has an advantage because of her great basics, and I don't think it's premature to say she has the cleanest technique.
Of course, having good technique itself doesn't guarantee her anything, there are still nerves, pressure, puberty... But she already has solid basics and don't have to worry about fixing her take-off edges or anything and other girls have to.

[blue_idealist]

I really don't know about ladies, because anything could happen with the 'wonderbabies.'

For the men, Gachinski could be a contender, but it's too early to say. I guess Plushenko would still have a chance if he comes back too, depending on how well he's skating. Something tells me Plushenko nor Gachinski will actually win the GOLD in Sochi, though.

Volosozhar and Trankov are a strong possibility for gold in Sochi. I think it'll be them up against Savchenko and Szolkowy, although other teams could become a factor and Pang and Tong will probably be in the mix if they stick around.

In ice dance it's hard to say. Ilinykh and Katsalapov are pretty good, but it's hard to picture them becoming a #1 team by 2014, especially if Davis and White are still competing.