Will Russia bounce back to win at least 1 gold medal at the Sochi 2014 Olympics?

[Cherub721]

I think Plushenko would be on another level in Sochi if he makes it as well; unfortunately, not the elevated, celestial level that you seem to be thinking he'll master. He will be quite "figure skater old", he will have undergone multiple surgeries for injuries, and he will be up against a younger and possibly stronger generation. I could see Plushenko being the "still trying to hold on to glory Stojko" in his final Olympics, and that just wasn't a pretty sight.

That was my feeling about Plushy going into Vancouver. I was amazed that he skated as well as he did, and nearly won. It would be too much to ask for that lightning to strike twice.

[Macassar88]

I'm kind of hoping that Plushenko can bring back the triple axel half loop triple flip. It's worth the same as a quad toe triple toe, but it's just so much cooler.

[misskarne]

I'm kind of hoping that Plushenko can bring back the triple axel half loop triple flip. It's worth the same as a quad toe triple toe, but it's just so much cooler.

I'd love to see him do it again too - that was amazing, that combination. I'd also like to see him do an Ina Bauer into 3A (Kulik-style) but that's mostly because I've never seen Plushy do an Ina Bauer.

I hope he goes full-out with the 4T-3T-3Lo and I'll be interested to see if he keeps working on the 3A-4T combination. I definitely think he's more than capable of beating everyone else in the field...if his body holds out.

[Vash01]

I'd love to see him do it again too - that was amazing, that combination. I'd also like to see him do an Ina Bauer into 3A (Kulik-style) but that's mostly because I've never seen Plushy do an Ina Bauer.

I hope he goes full-out with the 4T-3T-3Lo and I'll be interested to see if he keeps working on the 3A-4T combination. I definitely think he's more than capable of beating everyone else in the field...if his body holds out.

Kulik was doing spread eagles (not Ina Bauer) into triple axel, as eligible.

I too loved the 3A-0.5loop-3f combination. I don't think he can do the 4t-3t-3R combination now, but if he does the 4-3-2 even that will be amazing.

[judgejudy27]

That was my feeling about Plushy going into Vancouver. I was amazed that he skated as well as he did, and nearly won. It would be too much to ask for that lightning to strike twice.

The caliber of the mens event come 2014 will be much higher than 2010. One just has to compare the level Lysacek was skating at and able to win big events to the level Chan is skating at now to see the enormous difference.

[Cherub721]

The caliber of the mens event come 2014 will be much higher than 2010. One just has to compare the level Lysacek was skating at and able to win big events to the level Chan is skating at now to see the enormous difference.

Agreed but then again Takahashi and Joubert in 2007 were skating at a much higher level than Lysacek in 2010. Even Buttle's quadless performance from 2008 would beat Lysacek because of the transitions, IMO. The level could drop back down again as it did leading up to 2010, for whatever reason. Still doesn't mean Plush medals, obviously.

[judgejudy27]

True, it was sad how mens skating went backwards so much leading into Vancouver. It is also probably a large part of the reason Plushenko returned at all, since he was already well below his former best due to his knee surgeries in Vancouver.

Seeing Evan go on to win a surprise World and Olympic gold also makes me sad Jeff didnt continue. Then again Jeff was inconsistent so who knows if he would put it together to win or not, but a clean Jeff would always crush a clean Evan if both were quadless.

[orbitz]

I'm kind of hoping that Plushenko can bring back the triple axel half loop triple flip. It's worth the same as a quad toe triple toe, but it's just so much cooler.

But the flip looked force, because Plush was basically taking off from a standstill after the half loop. I would've given it 0 or -GOE if it was done under IJS. A jump sequence must have good flow in and out of its multipe connecting jumps. An excellent jump sequence was Ito and Browning's 2A-.5L-3S. A really bad example was Maria's 3T-.5L-3S.

[Vash01]

But the flip looked force, because Plush was basically taking off from a standstill after the half loop. I would've given it 0 or -GOE if it was done under IJS. A jump sequence must have good flow in and out of its multipe connecting jumps. An excellent jump sequence was Ito and Browning's 2A-.5L-3S. A really bad example was Maria's 3T-.5L-3S.

You are comparing 2A-0.5L-3S sequence with a 3A-0.5L-3f?

Midori was a great jumper, but that sequence was not all that difficult. How many men have even attempted the 3A-0.5L-3f?

[Vash01]

The caliber of the mens event come 2014 will be much higher than 2010. One just has to compare the level Lysacek was skating at and able to win big events to the level Chan is skating at now to see the enormous difference.

I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now. We don't know if Kozuka will develop, if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well), if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules. By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

Evan won the 2009 worlds because Joubert made a tactical error during his LP. IMO both Joubert and Takahashi were contenders for the OGM, at least on paper. Also Abbott was skating very well. I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys. He almost did, but partly because Joubert had his Olympic meltdown, Takahashi fell on the quad while Lysacek wisely eliminated the quad from his programs, and IMO Oda was never as strong artistically as these skaters. Abbott skated poorly too, but on paper the field was pretty strong.

[FarFarAway]

I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now. We don't know if Kozuka will develop, if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well), if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules. By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

Completely agree. But, I think we can't even be very much sure about Chan at the moment - there are 2.5 seasons before the Olympics.

I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys.

I don't think this was the primary reason for his return in 09-10 season.

[judgejudy27]

I have to disagree with this. Other than Chan, I don't see a man skating at a really high level right now.

Chan already is enough to make the sufficient difference on his own. To put it bluntly neither Lysacek and Plushenko have a hope in hell to compete with Chan at his current level, and I dont even like Chan (and actually do like Plushenko). Chan skating as he did now would have won the Olympics in Vancouver by about 40 points.

We don't know if Kozuka will develop

No we dont how he will develop, but we do know he already posted a 180 LP at Worlds, much higher than the career PB of either Plushenko or Lysacek, both whom never even reached a 170 and didnt in Vancouver either. In just one year the scoring isnt that advanced, in fact in the ladies, pairs, and for most of the men the scores were much lower than last year. I would my money on Kozuka over an aging champion returning anyday at this point, although I think he has a long way to go to challenge Chan.

if Takahashi will be around (and still skating well)

I dont think he will either. He falls into the same group as Plushenko and Lysacek, old veterans with lots of wear on their bodies who will be swept away as non contenders by 2014 if he is even skating. He wasnt even much a contender this season.

if Oda will ever learn to follow the COP rules.

I dont see him as being a big factor in the coming years either. It will be Chan, Kozuka, and some of the current younger skaters who still have alot of improvement until 2014.

By the time 2014 rolls around, we may see a strong field but right now I don't.

It is already strong enough Evan or Evgeny at their Vancouver level definitely could not win. That is the point. It will only get stronger from here.

Evan won the 2009 worlds because Joubert made a tactical error during his LP. IMO both Joubert and Takahashi were contenders for the OGM, at least on paper. Also Abbott was skating very well. I think Plushy came back because he missed competing, and also because he believed that he could beat these guys. He almost did, but partly because Joubert had his Olympic meltdown, Takahashi fell on the quad while Lysacek wisely eliminated the quad from his programs, and IMO Oda was never as strong artistically as these skaters. Abbott skated poorly too, but on paper the field was pretty strong.

Joubert was past his prime by that point. 2009 Worlds was high last real shot of a big title. I never saw him as a threat for the 2010 OGM. At Worlds soon after the Games he had a pretty good competition and won the bronze in a field with 4 of the top 6 out, well behind a quadless/3 major error Chan. Takahashi was out with injury in 2009, and fighting to come back from it along with the major consistency issues he had his whole career in 2010. Abbott is a huge headcase who has never proven anything in major events.

[Zokko!]

Of course! Two, Ice Dance and Pairs for sure!

[misskarne]

Kulik was doing spread eagles (not Ina Bauer) into triple axel, as eligible.

I too loved the 3A-0.5loop-3f combination. I don't think he can do the 4t-3t-3R combination now, but if he does the 4-3-2 even that will be amazing.

Oh? Oops. I could have sworn he did the Ina Bauer. Oh well. Not my fault Ilia did so many fantastic jumps

[Proustable]

Falling on a 2A is tactical error?

[Vash01]

Falling on a 2A is tactical error?

I was referring to the jump he skipped toward the end, thinking he had done enough to win. That was a tactical error.

[Proustable]

I know he did that in 2008 with Buttle, doing a 2A+1t instead of.... anything else. Which jump did he skip in 2009?

[aliceanne]

The 2010 Olympics were a disaster for Russia compared to previous Olympics. They came away with just one silver and 1 bronze. From 1976 - 2006 (as the Soviet Union, the Unified Team, and Russia) they won at least 2 gold medals in each Olympics except 1984 when they won 1. From 1964 - 1972, they won 1 gold in each Olympics in an era when there were just 3 events with no Ice Dance. Hence, 2010 was there worst Olympics since 1960 when they came away with absolutely nothing (1960 was the Squaw Valley Olympics which were a triumph for the United States - winning 2 Gold and 2 bronze - at the height of its supremacy just before the tragedy of the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961). In essence, ever since the Sabena Flight 548 air disaster in 1961, Russia has dominated figure skating for the most part right up to 2006. At the 2010 Olympics, however, Asia and North America shared the spoils with 2 Gold Medals apiece (the United States and China topping the medal table with a Gold and a Silver each)

Accordingly, with the Olympics coming up in Sochi in 2014, will Russia bounce back to take at least 1 Gold Medal?

I don't know if you are just talking about skating, but overall I would say yes. Their government is putting a lot of money and effort behind their athletes. That is half the battle for amateur sports. They fired the sports minister after Vancouver, so I think they will leave no stone unturned.

Given all of the economic turmoil in the U.S, the fact that the olympics are not being held in the U.S., and that winter olympic sports are not that popular with the public, I don't think there will be much government support here.

[pani]

Hope V-T will win competition in pair skating.
Cant see how some os russin teams could compete against D-W and Shibs. But i think they have very good chance to take bronz medal. (after two teams from USA).
But we have long way to go. Maybe Sotnikova or Tuktamisheva will show there best at home OG?

[FarFarAway]

I don't know if you are just talking about skating, but overall I would say yes. Their government is putting a lot of money and effort behind their athletes. That is half the battle for amateur sports. They fired the sports minister after Vancouver, so I think they will leave no stone unturned.

That is all very disputable. Despite all seemingly hard efforts the competition results in most of the winter sports still leave much to be desired. The situation with the figure skating improved, yes, but I guess, this is not only due to the reason of financing. If you take the biathlon results of the last season, you will see that almost nothing has changed.