Who Will Win American Idol Ten?

[Allskate]

tak, next week, you will see what we just saw this past week.

Jeez louise! I'm sure she didn't mean she wanted EVERY song on Idol to be a rock song. I'm just saying she didn't sing rock on Idol, and then busts some rock-like vocals on tour, did it well, and I was surprised. With that, I think I'm done with this conversation. Really not sure why this is evoking such a strong response, but okay.

Sorry if I came across too strong. Didn't mean to. I've clearly evoked a strong response from you. (I wrote my college application essay on how much I like to debate, but I realize not everyone finds it as fun. Where's cailuj? ) I didn't say anything even suggesting that Katie wanted to make every song on Idol a rock song. You said that Katie claimed that she wasn't allowed to sing rock on the show and then you basically disagreed with me when I said I didn't believe her. I was just responding to what you said.

I think there is some manipulation on Idol. I also think that's part of what encourages some conspiracy theories and myths. For example, this theory that this week Jordan was required to sing OMG and had no choice. (And I think there are still some Claymates convinced that Clay really won.) We'll never know for sure what is true, but I find it's fun debating it.

[Kruss]

Sorry if I came across too strong. Didn't mean to. I've clearly evoked a strong response from you. (I wrote my college application essay on how much I like to debate, but I realize not everyone finds it as fun. Where's cailuj? ) I didn't say anything even suggesting that Katie wanted to make every song on Idol a rock song. You said that Katie claimed that she wasn't allowed to sing rock on the show and then you basically disagreed with me when I said I didn't believe her. I was just responding to what you said.

I think there is some manipulation on Idol. I also think that's part of what encourages some conspiracy theories and myths. For example, this theory that this week Jordan was required to sing OMG and had no choice. (And I think there are still some Claymates convinced that Clay really won.) We'll never know for sure what is true, but I find it's fun debating it.

I hate debating. LOL That's why I stay out of the PI thread.

[cailuj365]

(I wrote my college application essay on how much I like to debate, but I realize not everyone finds it as fun. Where's cailuj? )

LOL! Although I can't help you out here. I know nothing about Katie Stevens and have no interest in finding out more.


I've only seen one performance by Pia, and I have no idea what kind of back story she has, but I wasn't that impressed to be honest. Nice performance, decent voice, but boring and generic. That song was also total cheese. And what was up with those hand gestures in the beginning? She even has a generic "pretty girl" look. zzzzz.... Obviously, these are early days, but I feel like if she got a contract after Idol, she'd only have a career like Katherine McPhee's.

I think James Durbin is a lost cause simply due to the fact that having a high rock scream is going to make audiences and the media think that he's the poor man's Adam Lambert every week. The comparisons started from day 1 (which James didn't help when he implied that he was doing things like Adam and then sang a rock version of "A Change Is Going to Come"), and it might be way too hard for him to escape that and escape from it favorably. He has the unusual vocals but doesn't have the weird charisma or the socially relevant gay scandal to get America gossiping. Even if he won the season, he's still a lost cause because apparently he wants to be a heavy metal artist. *snort* Good luck getting that to work after American Idol.

You may debate that as you wish, Allskate.

[LuckyCharm]

I have to say ITA agree with cailuj regarding Pia. Regarding Kat McPhee, I think she did have a lot of "It factor," and had the looks and talent to be much more successful had she gotten a hold of some decent material. Unfortunately, her album was mostly dreck in terms of songwriting and production.

[Allskate]

You may debate that as you wish, Allskate.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. That's no fun.

Maybe Pia will show more range in her performances than Kat and improve her stage presence? And maybe they'll find some better contemporary pop material for her to record?

[PeterG]

I don't think Carrie has done better than Kelly when you look at the total internationally. Plus, I think Carrie has much more crossover appeal than Scotty. But, I can see Scotty having a great country career regardless of whether he wins.

From wikipedia (US sales only, they don't list international sales):

Carrie Underwood – 12 million albums and 11 million singles
Kelly Clarkson – 11 million albums and 6 million singles

I'm not sure about Scott. He might have Kellie Pickler sales or Danny Gokey sales...

Casey James starts his gig opening for Sugarland tonight. I'll be really curious to hear about his new music.

I predict Casey James will sell more records than his competitors Lee DeWyze or Crystal Bowersox. I know I'm really going out on a limb here...

It's way too early for me to pick a winner.

It's good that you are playing it safe. For we will hold you accountable for all AI predictions that you make!!!!

I couldn't disagree more. Taylor Hicks was cute & cuddly? I thought he was very corny & was probably the least talented in that year's top 10. When he did A Thing Called Love I actually cringed.

Well, in regards to Mr. Hicks being "cute and cuddly", I did say "relatively speaking"! What I meant was that he engaged the audience whereas I think Casey Abrams somewhat challenges the audience (both in his personality and his song selections and performance style). Some people will not like being challenged, while others will love it! (Myself included.)

Taylor Hicks walked down the middle of the road, smiled for the camera, used the "Soul Patrol" line over and over to get his fans voting. Casey Abrams enjoys wise-cracking and being flippant/silly. Smart people will get it (and enjoy it) while others will feel alienated and put off.

[Kruss]

It's good that you are playing it safe. For we will hold you accountable for all AI predictions that you make!!!!

Okay, you want a prediction? I know my favorite so far, Naima, won't win because she's not the chosen one. Yes, Lauren will take it all because that's what Nigel wants, being that she's possibly getting her sound enhanced, and after all, as Nigel puts it, we're all just morons anyway.

So who wins? Do the voters get to choose, or does Nigel get his way? After all, apparently Lolita Lauren is the only one to "command the Idol stage", so congrats in advance to her.

[Aceon6]

Just noticed something. I guess everyone has Ashthon in 13th as she's not even in the poll.

[taf2002]

Just noticed something. I guess everyone has Ashthon in 13th as she's not even in the poll.

I don't know, I wouldn't be surprised if Haley goes home 1st. Here's my list as I wish it would happen:

(IMO no hope of making a music career; i.e. can't imagine anyone but family buying a ticket to see them)
13. Jacob Lusk (he makes my ears bleed & not in a good way)
12. James Durbin (ditto)
11. Ashthon Jones (good voice but no star quality)
10. Scott McCreery (goofy looking & I hate country)
9. Haley Reinhart (good voice but no star quality)
8. Lauren Alaina (not as wonderful as SHE thinks she is, comes off as entitled brat)
(Has a shot at the big time, in some cases, a small shot)
7. Stefano Langone
6. Karen Rodriquez
5. Pia Toscano
4. Paul McDonald
3. Thia Megia
2. & 1. Casey Abrams & Naima Adedapo in either order (yes I know, dream on)

[BigB08822]

From wikipedia (US sales only, they don't list international sales):

Carrie Underwood – 12 million albums and 11 million singles
Kelly Clarkson – 11 million albums and 6 million singles.

Also remember that Kelly came out before the huge boom in single sales and the surge in popularity for iTunes. If her Breakaway singles came out NOW I guarantee you that you could add another 3-5 million single sales to her column. She also would have had more Billboard #1's on the Hot 100, IMO.

I will try to find international sales, I have seen them before but can't remember.

[Cheylana]

Also remember that Kelly came out before the huge boom in single sales and the surge in popularity for iTunes. If her Breakaway singles came out NOW I guarantee you that you could add another 3-5 million single sales to her column.

But fewer album sales on the flip side of things.

[DarrellH]

Idol voters don't always vote for talent. Votes go to the cutest guy, or girl...the one who just sang my favorite song...the one that the judges were harsh with...

[PeterG]

Did Lauren sing any country songs before this week? I don't think of her as a country artist. Scott says that his early audition was with a John Mayer song. Maybe they've both realized that they can get more votes and have a better chance at a career if they go the country route.

You're right, I don't remember Lauren doing country songs before last week. Starting out the live part of the competition with a Reba song was a strong statement, and Lauren looks country to me. And did she audition in Nashville?

Maybe because that's where a majority of people who actually vote live. I suspect a lot of people watch who never actually vote. Like me. I have to really, really like someone before I'll bother.

So what you are saying is that you take full responsibility for Taylor Hicks?

One thing to remember about song choice is that, no matter what the judges say about how important it is to choose the right song, oftentimes there are only a few songs on the list that the contestants can pick from. An article from last year said there was something like 12 songs for 8 contestants one week - something like that.

This is a good thing (IMHO). A good singer needs to have a large selection of songs to come up with a good performance. A great singer can sing anything (I think Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood could make any song sound good). So a limited selection of songs separates the good from the great. This makes for an exciting competion (and TV show)!

[Allskate]

2. & 1. Casey Abrams & Naima Adedapo in either order (yes I know, dream on)

It's a lovely dream. The two of them and Paul seem to be the most interesting. I don't think any of those three is going to win, but I hope they stick around for quite some time or things will get boring. I'm hoping that Casey can sneak in some bass playing. Even his bass playing seems to be imbued with personality. Most of his videos have been removed from Youtube, but here's one of him playing bass. His solo is a few minutes in:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoxsGOZJwsM

This is a good thing (IMHO). A good singer needs to have a large selection of songs to come up with a good performance. A great singer can sing anything (I think Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood could make any song sound good). So a limited selection of songs separates the good from the great. This makes for an exciting competion (and TV show)!

It makes for bad performances. I don't think the contestants need to be able to sing anything and everything. Most successful singers don't sing a broad range of songs and don't need to. They need to be able to sing their own genre really well. Plus, even really good singers may have a hard time finding a song on a small list where they can make a 90 second arrangement that works. Crystal and Casey James, who both have musical talent, said that was the toughest thing.

Just noticed something. I guess everyone has Ashthon in 13th as she's not even in the poll.

I didn't even notice that, though I did predict that she's be the first to go. It's interesting that the contestants all have been given twitter accounts. Some of them know how to use them. Some of them don't. And some of the probably shouldn't use them. I put Ashthon in that last category, along with Karen, because they don't come across as particularly appealing in their tweets. OTOH, Paul is fun and quite informative.

[PeterG]

Any thoughts about vote-splitting? Which people will have the some part of the audience voting for them, meaning they are more likely to be in the bottom three? Here are some of my thoughts:

Ashthon and Naima (and James) split the urban/diva votes?

Casey and Paul split the quirky vote?

Haley, Karen, Pia and Thia split the pop princess votes, with probably Haley and Karen suffering early on.

Lauren and Scott split the country votes.

James has no rockers competing with him unless Paul is hiding a tougher side we haven’t seen yet. And Stefano doesn’t have anyone doing the male pop thing to compete with, so I’m thinking I’ve made a mistake predicting Stefano will go out second - he could possibly make the top six. Although Stefano did not get the votes to make the top 10 on his own, so who knows!

I think James Durbin is a lost cause simply due to the fact that having a high rock scream is going to make audiences and the media think that he's the poor man's Adam Lambert every week.

I think only the ubers will judge him against Adam Lambert. The majority of the population will take him on his own merits (or lack of them, if you're not a fan). And he's strictly focussing on rock, whereas Adam was all over the place. That will help James in some ways, and hurt him with the non-rockers. Plus he's straight, which is important to some voters.

Yes, Byrd is still there and has been since S1. Of course, I remember her from the mid-70s when she was part of Lady Flash, Barry Manilow's backup singers.

Cool bit of trivia. I never knew that!

[Allskate]

Any thoughts about vote-splitting? Which people will have the some part of the audience voting for them, meaning they are more likely to be in the bottom three? Here are some of my thoughts:

Ashthon and Naima (and James) split the urban/diva votes?

Did you mean Jacob? I actually think that Ashthon and Karen will compete against each other for the "annoying contestant singing soaring GFBs worse than the original" vote. I see Naima maybe splitting votes with Jacob or maybe even Casey if they both get jazzy.

Casey and Paul split the quirky vote?

And the white guy with instrument vote.

Haley, Karen, Pia and Thia split the pop princess votes, with probably Haley and Karen suffering early on.

I don't see Haley playing the pop princess role. I think she's going to try to do the hot, sultry thing -- and be quite bad at it.

Lauren and Scott split the country votes.

Once they make the tour, I think they'll both branch out and try to appeal to broader audiences for votes.

And Stefano doesn’t have anyone doing the male pop thing to compete with, so I’m thinking I’ve made a mistake predicting Stefano will go out second - he could possibly make the top six. Although Stefano did not get the votes to make the top 10 on his own, so who knows!

He might have had amongst the top ten highest vote totals. He didn't compete against the girls. I think he's got a great shot at outlasting Karen and Haley, who made it into the top ten based on the voting for the girls. FYI, though, Stefano says he's going to go back to more soulful songs, which might not be a wise choice.

We'll see if James starts to try to appeal to a broder audience. If he only does hard rock he'll run into problems eventually, especially if he insists on screaming every week.

[rfisher]

So what you are saying is that you take full responsibility for Taylor Hicks?
:

I think I voted once or twice for somebody that year. Was that Daughtry's year??? Whoever they were, I quit watching when they left so I take no responsibility for Mr. Loser.

[BigB08822]

Lauren Alaina is definitely a country slanted singer. Her very first song ever on Idol at the auditions was a country song. She then sang the Aerosmith song which is what everyone remembers but she first sang some country song that escapes me, maybe Martina McBride or Faith Hill, I dunno. The video is easily searchable on youtube.

[taf2002]

I don't think in the early days vote splitting will be a problem. I plan to vote for both Casey & Naima & no one else. I imagine the country fans will vote for both Lauren & Scotty, etc. When it gets down to 5 or 6 people, then voters will probably just vote for one person. That's when the tweens really make themselves heard.

[KikiSashaFan]

Lauren Alaina is definitely a country slanted singer. Her very first song ever on Idol at the auditions was a country song. She then sang the Aerosmith song which is what everyone remembers but she first sang some country song that escapes me, maybe Martina McBride or Faith Hill, I dunno. The video is easily searchable on youtube.

FWIW, our satellite radio at work is set to a country station (don't get me started on that) and they reguarlarly play Aerosmith.