US World team: chances to medal and keep spots for next year

[Marco]

In the ladies, Czisny and Flatt will / should be up against Kim, Asada, Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, (Lepisto?), Makarova, Leonova, Helgesson, Elene G. and Phaneuf in the final two groups.

If Kim and the Japanese ladies bring their A game, Czisny's medal chances are slim, but a strong skate can perhaps put her 4th or 5th, depending on how Murakami, Kostner and Korpi skate. A clean / decent showing by Flatt can earn her a place in the bottom half of top 10, but I honestly don't see her cracking into top 6 again unless there is a major disaster from most of the top Euro ladies.

Overall, I think medal chances for the ladies are not high, and chances to regain the third spot will depend on how the Europeans skate.

In the men, Bradley, Dornbush and Miner will face 3 Japanese men, 2 French men, 2 Canadian men, 2 Czech men, and 2 to 3 other European men. Bradley has a very very outside chance at top 6, but only if he hits all 3 quads and the rest of his jumps, and Dornbush may have a Brezina moment. But overall it is most likely that US men will drop to 2 spots next year because of PCS. I don't even think there is an outside chance for any of the three to medal.

In the pairs, Y&C and E&L will face one Chinese pair, one German pair, three Russian pairs, one Canadian pair and perhaps the Italian pair. No medal chances but they have an outside chance to have a third spot, but wil most likely just maintain 2 spots for next season. To be honest I believe a top 6 placement will already be a major accomplishment for either team.

In the dance, D&W should have no problem with a top 2 placement, and the Shibs with a top 10. 3 dance spots should be quite safe.

Thoughts?

[JerseySlore]

IMO only ladies who have prayer of beating clean Czisny are equally perfect Kim, Asada, and Kostner with full arsenal of triples. I now it's a tall order for Czisny to recreate another clean long program, but it's unlikely all of the aforementioned three ladies will skate error-less. I think bronze is very doable for Czisny, and Flatt can easily place top 10. Chance is actually looking greater than ever since 2007.

As for pair, I definitely expect S/S, V/T, K/S, P/T, and probably B/L to place ahead the Americans, but M/M and B/H are more or less on equal footing. If lucky, our pairs will bring three spots.

I'm resigned to the fact that we will be down to two spots as far as men's discipline goes. But even with Abbott and Rippon, chance wouldn't be that great anyway. I hope Dornbush and Miner will make the most out of this experience and Bradely will end his competitive career on high note.

I can't even bother to worry about Ice Dance with D/W being pretty much invincible so far and Shibs poised to become next big thing, even though neither is exactly my cup of tea.

[barbk]

I think that the ladies are a huge puzzle because there are so damn many headcases, and trying to figure out which ones will hold it together at Worlds and which won't is a crapshoot.

Of the ladies you listed, Kim, Asada, Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, (Lepisto?), Makarova, Leonova, Helgesson, Elene G. and Phaneuf, only Kim, Ando and Murakami seem more likely than not to deliver two relatively clean (one fall or pop) performances. I'd expect to see those three in the top 6. Who else joins them is a mystery, and I suspect that the answer would vary significantly if the competition was run a second or third time. They're that flakey. And IMO, Alissa is still in the flakey category, and Rachael (and Lepisto and Kostner) are all coming off of injuries, so that's more added to the mix.

It will be interesting. I'm hoping that it won't be a splatfest.

[oleada]

I think that if Alissa skates clean, she'll definitely challenge for a medal. She won the GPF beating Ando, Murakami, Kostner, etc. Mao is a wild card, but obviously if she skates clean she'll podium. But Alissa definitely has a shot at a medal.

I can't see Flatt higher than 7-10th place.

As for pairs, they should keep two spots but a medal is beyond reach. Savchenko/Szolkowy, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Volosozhar/Trankov, Bazarova/Larionov and Pang/Tong are more than likely to be top 5, which means the highest the US pairs are likely to finish is 6th, and that's a long shot. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch are having a strong season, so they'll probably take that spot. They'll have to contend with Berton/Hottarek and Duhamel/Radford, I think.

Men's unlikely for 3 spots. It was with Abbott and even more so now.

[Squibble]

I think the men have an outside shot at retaining three spots. Dornbush has the ninth highest Season's Best Score, and that was with a Junior program. One of the eight above him, Rippon, won't be at Worlds. The next three in the rankings, Reynolds, Abbott, and Mroz will not be there either. If Dornbush polishes his SP between now and then, he might finish about sixth or seventh, and so too might Bradley if he executes all of his planned elements properly. If they don't, it will not be the end of the world. It will just give the men next year's Nationals more incentive to finish in the Top Two.

[pinky166]

IMO only ladies who have prayer of beating clean Czisny are equally perfect Kim, Asada, and Kostner with full arsenal of triples. I now it's a tall order for Czisny to recreate another clean long program, but it's unlikely all of the aforementioned three ladies will skate error-less. I think bronze is very doable for Czisny, and Flatt can easily place top 10. Chance is actually looking greater than ever since 2007.

Miki Ando can beat a clean Czisny if she's clean as well. In Japan her PCS will be high enough and she gets good GOE on her jumps. I'd also say a clean Korpi has a shot at beating a clean Czisny just where she has a 7 triple FS and we all know her PCS can go through the roof when she skates well. Same for Lepisto, although her form is a question mark at this point. I'd throw Kanako in the mix as well, she has 7 triples and two 2as planned in her FS and will be skating on home ice.

Clean Asada and Kim beating a clean Alissa is pretty much a given, although that may be a big ask considering Kim has been clean once in her senior career and will be competing for the first time at worlds, and Mao seemingly still has a lot of work to do. If Alissa is perfect and those two aren't, there is a chance she could beat them, but I don't see it happening.

Then I'd group Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, and a healthy Lepisto in with Alissa in the sense that if they were all to go clean, the outcome would likely be very close and could go either way. So Alissa has 5 direct competitors really, and most of them, save Ando, are quite inconsistent. If Alissa has mistakes though, she'll be competing against Flatt's main competitors.

Flatt I could see finishing as high as 4th behind Kim, Asada, and Ando if Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, Lepisto, and Alissa all have mistakes and she is clean. She'll have to be wary of Makarova, Leonova, and Phanuef, but I think a clean Rachael could probably edge all those girls out (save Cynthia maybe), and the chances of Rachael going clean are much higher than those of the other 3 going clean.

Gede can be in the top 10 but I say she's only really competition for Flatt if Rachael has mistakes and she is on, and only competition for Alissa if Alissa bombs/semi-bombs (Elene beat Alissa at the 09 worlds).

[Domshabfan]

Alissa can finish in top 3, but compettion could be tight with Kim, Ando, Murakami and possibly Asada. Japanese girls should be reasonably fired up since the competition is in japan. Next set will comprise of Carolina, Korpii, Makarova, Phanteuf, Leonova and Flatt. So gaining an extra spot could be tricky. They will defiently hold on to 2 spots.

Mens, US is likely going to finish with 2 spots. Bradley , could end up outside the top ten. Dornbush seems to be more reliable of the 3 that will compete at the worlds.

Pairs: maintain 2 spots, Y/C and E/L are likely to finish between 7-12. They are good but there are lots of enough good teams to beat them.

Ice dance: D/W will medal and Shibutanis will finish between 7 -10 ensuring 3 spots. Top 3, P/B, D/W, V/M. 4-5: B/S(RUS), C/P(Can). 6-10: Kerrs(GBR), I/K(RUS), Shibutanis(USA), F/S(ITA), W/P(CAN). So, USA and CAN should get 3 spots, Russia may gain an additional spot.

[Jaana]

I wonder how Czisny and Bradley will succeed as the US National champions, as there seems to have been a curse in recent years, LOL?

It is very likely that in men´s discipline USA will lose at least the third spot and in ladies´ discipline USA may not get a third spot, actually it may even lose one spot. But I sure hope to be wrong!!! So surprising that Abbott is not in the team. Now he apparently tried to peak at Worlds and this happened to him, I´m very sad for him. Maybe he was just too relaxed now that Lysacek is not competing? I´m also surprised about Mroz not making the team.

[ryanbfan]

I have to agree with the above person on the Mens/Spots discussion...

If they don't, it will not the end of the world. It will just give the men next year's Nationals more incentive to finish in the Top Two.

And it's not like we have a big slump coming in our Mens skating. We could lose the 3 spots this year but gain them back in Worlds 2012. It's not Olympic 'year' or anything either.

[Extranjera]

US world team is so unexpected I wish I could watch Mirai at Worlds, but I'm also happy US Nationals was a TRUE competition, and judges gave spots skaters who were the best, not the ones with the biggest names.

About medals: i think Czisny can medal ONLY if Ando, Kanako or/and Asada make serious mistakes, otherwise I'm sure Kim and two japanese skaters will be on the podium. And even if two japanese skaters make mistake, then Czisny has to face Kostner, Lepisto (?), Korpi , Leonova and Makarova, so it won't be easy thing to do. I cross finger for her though, this season she proved she's a true fighter

I don't see any chances for US men to medal in Tokyo. Too strong rivals. I think Chan will win and Kozuka & Takahashi will be 2nd and 3rd

[Twilight1]

I don't know if it is a given that the US will get 3 teams in ice dance, IF V&M go, the Shib's still have other good teams to compete against. I am interested to see where they stack up against W&P from Canada at the 4CC's. If they get beaten by W&P then a top 10 won't happen for them IMHO but they could still place 11th. If they place 11th, D&W have to win for the US to get their 3 spots.

Medal contenders will be V&M, D&W, P&B and the Kerr's, B&S and I&K mixed in there somewhere and definite dark horses to medal. After that, there are F&S, R&T, C&P and W&P. (I really think that W&P have made enough growth that they could place 10th but if they are beaten by the Shib's... then the Shib's round of the top 10)

I doubt that the combined totals for the pairs and men will get 3 slots to World's next year. Ladies it is possible. I wish the best to Czisny.

[leafygreens]

I'm also happy US Nationals was a TRUE competition, and judges gave spots skaters who were the best, not the ones with the biggest names.

The only reason RF got a spot is because she's a big name! Her skate wasn't worthy, IMO.

[Frau Muller]

Ladies - IF the following ladies flop, the USA stands an outside chance at medaling: Kim, Asada, Murakami, Ando, Meier, Korpii, Kostner

Men - Dornbusch or Miner may make top 10. (I love Ryan but I doubt that int'l judges care for Buggle Boy & Crazy Conductor programs.) IF the following men flop, an American may step on the podium: Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka, Oda, Amodio, Joubert, Verner

Pairs - The "Great Skating Wall of China" and Savchenko/Szolkowy and all 3 Russian teams will mean that the top US and Canadian pairs will be duking it out for 8th place.

Dance - HERE WE CAN SPARKLE. I look to Davis/White AND the Shib Sibs to step onto the podium, along with a Canadian team (be it V/M or C/P) or P/B of France.

Hence, I predict a total of two medals for the USA, at very best case; one medal most likely.

[haribobo]

Dance - HERE WE CAN SPARKLE. I look to Davis/White AND the Shib Sibs to step onto the podium, along with a Canadian team (be it V/M or C/P) or P/B of France.

Shibutanis on the podium? Did you just start watching skating a week ago? That's not how things work, dear. Besides, their FD is just a snore, despite their technical prowess.

Our men have as good a chance as anyone outside of the Japanese team, Amodio, Verner, and Chan. I rewatched Dornbush's skate today, and OMG. Miner too. Our US men's team is amazing. I bet Shawn Sawyer ends up in top 10 also. It will be very difficult to maintain 3 spots, but that's how it would have been anyway. Abbott, Rippon, and Mroz were no surer bets IMO.

Pairs hasn't changed too much- swap out Mukhortova for Volosozhar and D/D and L/H for MT/M and D/R and we're looking at the same scenario as last year minus Shen/Zhao. Berton/Hotarek and Hausch/Wende have stepped it up a little. Only other variable is the Zhangs and whether he is recovered from the finger thing. Our teams are very nice and I'll be proud of them even if they only finish 11th and 12th, though I think they could probably do a little better than that.

Ladies- who knows.

I think based on Nationals, every US member was the correct selection for the team.

[euterpe]

I don't know if it is a given that the US will get 3 teams in ice dance, IF V&M go, the Shib's still have other good teams to compete against. I am interested to see where they stack up against W&P from Canada at the 4CC's. If they get beaten by W&P then a top 10 won't happen for them IMHO but they could still place 11th. If they place 11th, D&W have to win for the US to get their 3 spots.

The Shibutanis already beat W/P at Skate America, by 2.5 points.

[haribobo]

Weaver/Poje got a bit of a reputation boost by making the GPF. Canada potentially has 3 top 10 teams now, and US has 2 or so. Chock/Zuerlein are probably just outside of top 10 this year. Tough to call how it will all play out..

[Seerek]

Pairs - Pang/Tong, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Volosozhar/Trankov, Kawaguti/Smirnov and Bazarova/Larionov are out of reach... everyone else including Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Berton/Hotarek, Duhamel/Radford, and Hausch/Wende are within reach...

Men - I expect Dornbush to be the highest finisher and see him only behind Chan, Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka for sure and competing well vs. Verner, Joubert and Amodio (so anywhere from 5th-8th). Miner and Bradley are in the next tier competing against Contesti, Sawyer, Gachinski/Menshov, Brezina, Van Der Perren, Fernandez...

Ladies - Czisny should be in the medal hunt but she'll need to be relatively clean with no downgrades in both programs. Rachael Flatt will likely be in the next tier competing alongside Korpi, Makarova, Leonova, Phaneuf, Helgesson(s), Vannut(?)

Dance - Davis/White probably are the gold medal favourites, helping to keep 3 spots.

[wonderlen]

I think that if Alissa skates clean, she'll definitely challenge for a medal. She won the GPF beating Ando, Murakami, Kostner, etc. Mao is a wild card, but obviously if she skates clean she'll podium. But Alissa definitely has a shot at a medal.
.

She barely beats Ando, Murakami and Kostner. Ando had a fall and downgrade on SP, Murakami has a downgrade/poped jumps and Kostner has a few wobbles and not even attempting the 3Flip or 3Lutz. Question is can Alissa handle the weight of the whole world?? She is going as a GPF champ and US champ and no doubt she will be on the spot light along with Kim and japanese ladies. And we all know how the NBC will hype and trash a skaters I say Kim and Asada can get away with one mistake (fall or pop) and a minor wobbles, and still be on the podium.

[Frau Muller]

Shibutanis on the podium? Did you just start watching skating a week ago? ....

Absolutely possible. Huge sudden shifts up or down are possible under new scoring system. And the Shibs have already been on a G-P event podium, beating W/P. They've been highly scored by int'l judges. Wait and see.

[attyfan]

I don't know if it is a given that the US will get 3 teams in ice dance, IF V&M go, the Shib's still have other good teams to compete against. I am interested to see where they stack up against W&P from Canada at the 4CC's. If they get beaten by W&P then a top 10 won't happen for them IMHO but they could still place 11th. If they place 11th, D&W have to win for the US to get their 3 spots.
...

Does getting 3 spots require combined placements of less than 13, or combined placements of 13 or better? Curious if Shibs getting 11th and DW getting silver will be enough for 3 spots.