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  1. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    PD - I never said the US didn't have a lot of paperwork, I said that I think China has more, because China keeps track of its population more. China also has all the paperwork you listed.
    as a matter of fact, you'll be surprised how much i know about China, and what kind of connection i have with China. But for privacy, i don't reveal it on here.

    I know people buying houses both in China and US. and they all told me China has no paperwork compare to the amount of paperwork required in the US.

  2. #482

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yukari Lepisto View Post
    I know people buying houses both in China and US. and they all told me China has no paperwork compare to the amount of paperwork required in the US.

    We're talking about people's birth records, not people buying a house. The amount of paperwork for one has nothing to do with the amount of paperwork for another.
    You should never write words with numbers. Unless you're seven. Or your name is Prince. - "Weird Al" Yankovic, "Word Crimes"

  3. #483
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    Quote Originally Posted by benedict_david View Post
    ("12" was from Dan Zhang and "1997" is from wikipedia, no source specified)
    Off-hand, and I have not looked specifically in this case, when Wiki says so-and-so teamed up in a year, that's usually from the ISU bio notes section. You can review previous versions of ISU bios through the Wayback Machine (isufs.org/bios url for before they switched over to isuresults.com/bios)
    The Junior Grand Prix: Where skaters who "come out of nowhere" come from.

  4. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by benedict_david View Post
    This is interesting, there could be two completely different time coordinate.

    Let's go with what you seem to believe in first:

    They paired up in 1997.
    Hao Zhang was 12 then.
    Their age difference is unclear.
    [Conclusion, that'd be early 1997. Dan Zhang would be either 11 or 9]

    And their first international competition was in 1999 (correct me if I'm wrong)

    They are supposed to be 14 and 13 as of July 1, 1999 if their ISU bios are correct. That means they were 12 and 11 when they paired up. That seems to be totally reasonable. Then both of them shouldn't have any age problems.

    But there's a parallel universe. Now let's go with what the reporters seem to believe in:
    They paired up in 1998, and won their first international competition 10 months later in 1999.
    Dan Zhang was 10 in 1998.
    There is 5 years difference in their age.
    Hao Zhang was born in 1982. He was 1.78m tall when they first paired up, and he end up 1.83m.

    These numbers happen to make sense to me, unfortunately.


    So basically if we keep "12" and "1997" and throw away "5 years difference", "10 months training", and "1998", we get a result consistent with ISU bios and shows that Zhang/Zhang are innocent, the listed birthdays are errors.

    But if we throw away "12" and "1997" and keep everything else, we get a totally different conclusion.

    ("12" was from Dan Zhang and "1997" is from wikipedia, no source specified)
    unfortunately we can't throw away 1997 as they won their first Junior Grand Prix Gold medal Oct. 1998 in Beijing, which means they paired up at the end of 1997, and isu bio also said they paired up in 1997. So the first scenario appear correct. Then I wronged Dan Zhang according to your analysis. What a mess. I need to go back to see what I did wrong.
    As for the source of "12", it was from the reporter reporting what Dan Zhang said, and as I reasoned in earlier post, should be reliable as she was the person who experienced it and recalled it under no pressure. She was defending herself being short comparing to Hao Zhang, as being too tall for his age, not she was to short.
    Last edited by Ilvskating; 02-17-2011 at 01:59 AM.

  5. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ilvskating View Post
    unfortunately we can't throw away 1997 as they won their first Junior Grand Prix Gold medal Oct. 1998 in Beijing, which means they paired up at the end of 1997, and isu bio also said they paired up in 1997. So the first scenario appear correct. Then I wronged Dan Zhang according to your analysis. What a mess. I need to go back to see what I did wrong.
    As for the source of "12", it was from the reporter reporting what Dan Zhang said, and as I reasoned in earlier post, should be reliable as she was the person who experienced it and recalled it under no pressure. She was defensing herself being short comparing to Hao Zhang, as being too tall for his age, not she was to short.
    Yes you are right, the isu bio shows they paired up at 1997. Likely in December if the "10 months" is correct.

    But Hao Zhang can't be 12 as of December 1997, he would be about 13 yrs 6 months old. I think she was more likely to refer to herself, if she was born in 1985 then she would be 12 then. But I'm not sure, the translation is barely readable for me.
    Last edited by benedict_david; 02-17-2011 at 01:52 AM.

  6. #486
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  7. #487

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    Because I can't be bothered and I don't think it would change people's opinions. If I thought it would make a difference, I would, but I think it's clear, people will believe what's published on the internet over anything else in this case. What evidence would satisfy you (collective you)?
    Angelskates, the issue here is that the Chinese have a documented history of actually changing ages. Look at the 2000 team. Yes paperwork can be murky but the fact of the matter is that when you have a history of lying about a situation like this, you lose credibility.

    Its documented they've changed ages before. And the "pattern" is awfully advantageous for China as well.

    And its not just the age eligibles who lose out on medals that get screwed about this. What about the experience that the age violators get over the age ineligibles. That's hardly fair either. That's why skaters should be banned for every year they competed ineligibly.
    Last edited by bek; 02-17-2011 at 02:06 AM.

  8. #488

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    Quote Originally Posted by bek View Post
    Angelskates, the issue here is that the Chinese have a documented history of actually changing ages. Look at the 2000 team. Yes paperwork can be murky but the fact of the matter is that when you have a history of lying about a situation like this, you lose credibility.

    Its documented they've changed ages before. And the "pattern" is awfully advantageous for China as well.
    I agree with you. So, bek, what evidence would satisfy you? Is there a way now that China could prove they haven't cheated this time? Or do you think, with the evidence presented in this thread, that China cheated, without a doubt? I think the information presented, like Benedict_david said, warrants investigation, but I don't think it says that without a doubt, there was cheating. I'm not sure I trust ISU to investigate anymore than I trust the Chinese Federation, because there is always politics involved.

  9. #489

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    I agree with you. So, bek, what evidence would satisfy you? Is there a way now that China could prove they haven't cheated this time?
    The only evidence that could possibly satisfy me with the Chinese at this point is if they present consistent records. Sure you might have a newspaper account say something wrong. It happens though way to much and its way to convenient. But seriously wrong data on a website. I think the Chinese should have to register their athletes ages, and those ages should have to stay the same. Period.

    Its the Chinese federation's own fault that people can't take their word. They've got no one to blame but themselves there.

    I mean the way Chinese skaters ages have changed defies "systematic problems." Wasn't Bing Shu one age, and then suddenly another age. And this happens all the times. Its hard to imagine its all just bad paperwork. It would be like if the Russians had reported Adelina, Elizaveta, and all of them has one age and then suddenly all said oh no they are really older and perfectly eligible.

    I mean I'm sorry but the Australian federation doesn't have a history of saying their athletes are one age, and then are conveniently another. And I'm sure there was evidence of Cheltzie being the right age, a lot earlier than when the "age change became convenient."

  10. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by benedict_david View Post
    Yes you are right, the isu bio shows they paired up at 1997. Likely in December if the "10 months" is correct.

    But Hao Zhang can't be 12 as of December 1997, he would be about 13 yrs 6 months old. I think she was more likely to refer to herself, if she was born in 1985 then she would be 12 then. But I'm not sure, the translation is barely readable for me.
    If it was for Dan Zhang being 12, suppose that Hao Zhang was born in 1982, and he would be 15 at that time. He would have 6 good years to explore the Junior field, more than enough to go to senior if the fed belived that they were that good, and that made it right to the 2002 olympic year. Why would he have changed his bd? It just confused me.

  11. #491

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    Quote Originally Posted by bek View Post
    The only evidence that could possibly satisfy me with the Chinese at this point is if they present consistent records.
    I don't understand. How can they present consistent records when we've already seen inconsistent ones presented in this thread? Would you believe records presented by the Chinese federation now, or would you think they were doctored?

  12. #492

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    I don't understand. How can they present consistent records when we've already seen inconsistent ones presented in this thread? Would you believe records presented by the Chinese federation now, or would you think they were doctored?
    No, what I mean is the Chinese should have to to send in paper work for their athletes years in advance. This is after all a country that has a sports machine system, so they can register their kids. The ages they report at that time are their children's ages.

    I mean I'm sorry but He Kexin the gymnast was reported as 14 literally six months before she became 16. Essentially they will have to change ages of every single child in their sports system.

  13. #493

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    Quote Originally Posted by bek View Post
    No, what I mean is the Chinese should have to to send in paper work for their athletes years in advance.
    But that doesn't answer my question about this case. Do you believe 100% just based on the information we have, that they cheated this time? Is there any evidence the Chinese Federatin could provide now that will change your mind?

    Do you think that only the Chinese should send in paperwork for their athletes years in advance? What happened then to having the same rules for everyone? China should have to have to abide by the same rules as everyone else, not have rules just for them.

  14. #494

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    ^ Re: He Kexin. I totally remember hearing about her before Beijing, like 2007, and hearing, oh, it's a shame she's too young to compete in Beijing. Then all of a sudden whoops, guess she was old enough all along!

  15. #495

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    But that doesn't answer my question about this case. Do you believe 100% just based on the information we have, that they cheated this time? Is there any evidence the Chinese Federatin could provide now that will change your mind?

    Do you think that only the Chinese should send in paperwork for their athletes years in advance? What happened then to having the same rules for everyone? China should have to have to abide by the same rules as everyone else, not have rules just for them.
    They've already proved that they are willing to falsify age information, so what they say has little credibility. You validate the information by going back to source documents and inspecting them for consistency and data. I do genealogy work as a hobby, and there is a plethora of data out there, often with conflicting information. You sort your way through it. Some records are better than others -- obviously data captured closer to the time of birth and recorded in written (not electronic) form in a register or something similar is going to be more authoritative than an entry in a spreadsheet. Information captured earlier in a skater's competitive career is going to be helpful. The key is that the Chinese federation (which is the same as the Chinese government) can't exactly be relied upon to do this research, and that's the challenge. It is doable, but the Chinese federation simply announcing that all paperwork is accurate is, imo, inadequate.

  16. #496

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    So, again, I ask barbk, what evidence would satisfy you? Would you consider an ISU investigation independent and adequate? (They would likely get all their information from the Chinese government, too). I don't actually think much government information is kept on hand written forms, most - if not all - is computerized across several (very poorly connected IME) departments.

  17. #497
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    Quote Originally Posted by brina View Post
    ^ Re: He Kexin. I totally remember hearing about her before Beijing, like 2007, and hearing, oh, it's a shame she's too young to compete in Beijing. Then all of a sudden whoops, guess she was old enough all along!
    Same here. And I don't get why the Chinese got off so easily on that. There really wasn't any evidence?

  18. #498

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    So, again, I ask barbk, what evidence would satisfy you? Would you consider an ISU investigation independent and adequate? (They would likely get all their information from the Chinese government, too). I don't actually think much government information is kept on hand written forms, most - if not all - is computerized across several (very poorly connected IME) departments.
    I suspect a decent team of genealogists from Taiwan could get the job done. There are more corroborating sources of evidence than people often imagine, and I'd be surprised if good researchers couldn't find it. I don't think that the ISU is able to investigate the way out of a paper bag, so no, I wouldn't particularly think they'd be good at it.

  19. #499

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    But that doesn't answer my question about this case. Do you believe 100% just based on the information we have, that they cheated this time? Is there any evidence the Chinese Federatin could provide now that will change your mind?

    Do you think that only the Chinese should send in paperwork for their athletes years in advance? What happened then to having the same rules for everyone? China should have to have to abide by the same rules as everyone else, not have rules just for them.

    The Chinese and any federation that has a history of falsifying ages in Olympic sports in recent memory should be forced to preregister.

    And as for it being the same rules for everyone. There are consquences and punishments foractions. Nations that have a history of following the rules, earn the benefit of the doubt. Nations who have a history of breaking the rules, have to be held to higher standards until they have earned the Sporting worlds trust again. The alternative is saying "we won't play with you at all."

    And as for how do I know that this time they are cheating. I don't know if every Chinese athlete who is being accused of being age ineligible is ineligible. If it was just one or even two, I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. But come on Angelskates, the pattern here is just way too obvious. IF this was the case of just error, than we would see more than just one kind of error. We'd see athletes who were really age eligible, having documents that say they aren't age eligible, and being left behind. Etc. All we have is variations that are favorable to China.

    Its not like China is just being picked on because they are China. They are being picked on because they've done this in the past, and have thumbed people's nose in it. If they are innocent in this case, well its still a boy who cried wolf scenario.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelskates View Post
    So, again, I ask barbk, what evidence would satisfy you? Would you consider an ISU investigation independent and adequate? (They would likely get all their information from the Chinese government, too). I don't actually think much government information is kept on hand written forms, most - if not all - is computerized across several (very poorly connected IME) departments.
    Unfortunately, in the court of public opinion China has been tried and found guilty. The ease with which they are able to produce paperwork on a whim makes any document they produce suspect.

    Fortunately for them, the only opinion that truly matters is that of the IOC and ISU and they will accept their documents and call it a day. Realistically speaking, what else can they do?

    I don't expect anything to come out of this beyond an oops "clerical error." Until the next time...

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