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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by attyfan View Post
    Does getting 3 spots require combined placements of less than 13, or combined placements of 13 or better? Curious if Shibs getting 11th and DW getting silver will be enough for 3 spots.
    Has to combined placements of 13 or lower.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by haribobo View Post
    Weaver/Poje got a bit of a reputation boost by making the GPF.
    If W/P had beaten one of the top teams at the GPF, they might have gotten a 'reputation' boost. But the only team they beat was Hoffmann/Zavozin. Last year, Cappellini/Lanotte went to the GPF, but didn't benefit from it.

    Canada potentially has 3 top 10 teams now, and US has 2 or so. Chock/Zuerlein are probably just outside of top 10 this year.
    Aren't you forgetting Samuelson/Bates? They will be back next year, and the US will have 3 top teams again.

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    I guess I'm more optimistic than a lot of you -

    Ladies: I see Czisny as a definite medal threat. Ando may be the biggest gold-medal threat depending on what shape Mao and YuNa are in. But I think Czisny will be up there with them. And I don't think Euro Ladies or Murakami are as a big a threat to Czisny as some of you are making them out to be. Did anyone see Korpi, Kostner, Makarova, Leonova at Euros?

    I also don't get the lack of love by Int'l judges for Flatt that some are supposing - she beat Kostner and Murakami in the LPs this Fall on the GP series while 1) injured 2) w/ no 3-3s, and 3) downgrades. She's ditched the crap SP for what some are arguing is a much better / more passionate program to EoE, too. She was practicing 7 triple practice runthroughs of the LP at nats, so I'd say her chances are bright



    Great shot for 3 spots for 2012 IMO.

    Men: I'm under no illusion that we'll keep 3 spots for '12. I just would like to see Dornbush [new uber here] go out and kick a$$. I have no expectations for Bradley and Miner. Dornbush and Miner just need to get the experience and go forward towards 2014, and hell, 2018!

    It will be interesting to see who the USFSA chooses to promote as 'anchor': Bradley who's got to be on the verge of retiring, or a hot up-and-comer like Dornbush.

    Pairs: Better than in recent years. No medals, but outside shot at 3 spots for 2012. Botth Y/C and E/L would have to bring their A-Game and both hope to pick off Moore/ Towers - Moscovitch and T/T in JPN. Tall order and unlikely, but I'm happy with the state of US pairs these days.

    Ice Dance: Least dramatic. D/W will medal and likely silver, maybe Gold. S/S are a great couple and should get top 10. 3 spots for 2012

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by attyfan View Post
    Does getting 3 spots require combined placements of less than 13, or combined placements of 13 or better? Curious if Shibs getting 11th and DW getting silver will be enough for 3 spots.
    The combined placements have to add up to 13 or less. So if the Shibs finish 11th, D/W only have to come in 2nd to maintain 3 spots. Russia only has 2 entries in dance at worlds, so R/T won't be there. I expect the top 3 to be V/M, D/W and P/B in some order, with the next tier probably consisting of I/K (who were great at Euros but inconsistent on the GP), the Kerrs (lost training time due to injury), F/S (inconsistent this year), C/P and B/S. I think the Shibs could challenge to get into this group.

    I think if the US ladies both skate their best, 3 spots is definitely within reach. Go Alissa!

  5. #25

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    Right now I think that Pairs could turn out something like this:

    1. Savchenko / Szolkowy
    2. Kawaguti / Smirnov
    3. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    4. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    5. Bazarova / Larionov
    6. Moore-Towers / Moskovich
    7. Yankowskas / Coughlin
    8. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    9. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    10. Berton / Hotarek

    However, I don't know who's on the Chinese team or whether Volosozhar / Trankov will actually go to World's.

    Note to skategods: This is pure speculation on my part. I am not saying this is how I want it to turn out.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

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    Nomad don't forget that the 2nd ranked Canuck team, definite possibility that they can place in top 10 for pairs

    I don't really take the results of at home advantage, for the result with Shib's and W&P. I am more interested in 4CC's in a neutral country and the result there.

    At 4 CC's I see, V&M or D&W in 1-2 (either order), 3rd C&P, 4th/5th Shib's or W&P. My mistake on the point total, I thought it was less than 13 not 13 and lower. US will definitely get 3 teams to World's next year then so long as no disaster happens.
    Last edited by Twilight1; 02-01-2011 at 06:07 PM.
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  7. #27
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    99% that V/T will be at worlds (they are scheduled at Mont Blanc trophy in February to get the required minimum score). U.S. pairs with outside chance at 3 slots next year, if all the stars align.

    Love the folks thinking that Elene G. is such a threat to Alissa (or even Racheal). Um, yeah, right. Ladies has probably the largest number of headcases, as well as usually solid but occasional headcase skaters. Anything, but ANYTHING, could happen.

    Mens has it's fair share of headcases as well. With the exception of Chan, I don't think anyone is a lock for the podium, or even top 5. I agree with those who think Dornbush will be the top U.S. finisher, although would be happy if Bradley surprised me (yet again). Total crapshoot on whether 3 spots are held.

    Dance is pretty safe, in terms of U.S. spots.
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  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by euterpe View Post
    Aren't you forgetting Samuelson/Bates? They will be back next year, and the US will have 3 top teams again.
    I was talking about Worlds 2011, which they will not be attending. I'm pretty sure that's what this thread is about. So I deliberately "forgot" S/B.

  9. #29
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    i think only the dance has the losely term lock on 3 spots.
    i would prefer d/w 1st no lower than 2nd with v/m 2nd, p/b 3rd-4th, b/s 3-4 and kerrs 6th.
    i would prefer shibs 7th, i/k 8th, c/p-9th -but i think those 3 would switch and maybe f/s 10 or crashing 7th. so that leaves even if d/w finishes 2nd and shibs 9th or 10th they still have 3.
    the ladies has a decent shot at 3-it depends on how everyone skates.
    but i think alissa has a decent shot at 3rd with rachel outside at 6th, but skates well can finish higher, badly i see no lower than 9th.

    the pairs i see 1 or 2 spots, i see p/t, s/s, k/s the top 3. than 1-2 canadian, other russian team, ukr team, japanese team and sui han in all fighting for 4-9th spots. that leaves 10th and lower for us.

    men i see 1-8 already take by chan,3- japanese, two french,two czech men that leaves a russian, italian and the 3 us men fight for the spots of 8-10. for me that leaves two.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    Right now I think that Pairs could turn out something like this:

    1. Savchenko / Szolkowy
    2. Kawaguti / Smirnov
    3. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    4. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    5. Bazarova / Larionov
    6. Moore-Towers / Moskovich
    7. Yankowskas / Coughlin
    8. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    9. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    10. Berton / Hotarek

    However, I don't know who's on the Chinese team or whether Volosozhar / Trankov will actually go to World's.

    Note to skategods: This is pure speculation on my part. I am not saying this is how I want it to turn out.
    Unless Hao Zhang's finger fell off, I can't imagine why Zhang/Zhang wouldn't be at Worlds, challenging for a top 5 finish. Duhamel/Radford and maybe Hausch/Wende also have a chance at top 10, depending how they and the others skate, but other than that, there's not much there. Still, many things will have to go their way for the US to get three spots... It'd be really surprising if it happens.

  11. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by stjeaskategym View Post
    Unless Hao Zhang's finger fell off, I can't imagine why Zhang/Zhang wouldn't be at Worlds, challenging for a top 5 finish. .
    Counting the seconds until judgejudy responds to this...

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seerek View Post
    Men - I expect Dornbush to be the highest finisher and see him only behind Chan, Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka for sure and competing well vs. Verner, Joubert and Amodio (so anywhere from 5th-8th). Miner and Bradley are in the next tier competing against Contesti, Sawyer, Gachinski/Menshov, Brezina, Van Der Perren, Fernandez...
    Joubert is a tough competitor with good skating skills and a quad and I don't see the American men placing ahead of him.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    Joubert is a tough competitor with good skating skills and a quad and I don't see the American men placing ahead of him.
    Depends on which Joubert shows up...

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kasey View Post

    Love the folks thinking that Elene G. is such a threat to Alissa (or even Racheal). Um, yeah, right. Ladies has probably the largest number of headcases, as well as usually solid but occasional headcase skaters. Anything, but ANYTHING, could happen.
    Elene shouldn't be a threat to Alissa or Rachael but if they bomb and she skates pretty well she could end up higher in the standings (case in point 09 Worlds, Elene was 10th, Alissa 11th).

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    Joubert is a tough competitor with good skating skills and a quad and I don't see the American men placing ahead of him.
    Joubert just skated a wonderful LP at european and hit a quad and 8 triples. If he does a same performance + a clean SP, he will be contender for the podium. Lets face it, Brian normally do well at world championship. The only question is which Thomas will show up??

  16. #36
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    the young japanese team of tahakashi/tran and sui and han beat out our US in grand prix events in scores. and placements sui/han qualified for senior gp final. takahashi and tran qualified for alternates but since qualified in junior division they went and won the junior gp final.
    so i see both the young teams from japan and china beating out the the US Teams at worlds.
    so

  17. #37

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    Y/C are currently 9th and E/L are 13th on the Seaon's Best List. Two of the pairs above them won't be at Worlds so that would put them 7th and 11th. To make 13 or less, 3 pairs above them would have to screw up. It seems to me, that the US will keep 2 pair teams.

  18. #38

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    Query- Who would you like in 5th spot for dance?

    I don't see C&P finishing lower than 6th again this year unless disaster strikes them but 9th seems awfully low for their technical ability...I actually see them going up a slot to be honest...into 5th
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  19. #39
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    Sui and Han are too young to compete at worlds.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwizzlerS View Post
    Y/C are currently 9th and E/L are 13th on the Seaon's Best List. Two of the pairs above them won't be at Worlds so that would put them 7th and 11th. To make 13 or less, 3 pairs above them would have to screw up. It seems to me, that the US will keep 2 pair teams.
    I will say that Y/C seemed to have upped the content in their LP at Nats, perhaps in an attempt to up their levels [SBS 3-2-2; different entrances to elements such as the DS], as well as having gone clean. So, it hasn't been graded internationally yet, but I'm interested to see how this small amount of revamping / cleaner performances effects their scores w/ intl. judges, and thereby gives them any 'movement' in the standings.

    E/L as well - by changing their not-so-well-received SP in the Fall, which was holding back their overall scores on the GP circuit, and hitting it right off the bat at Nats, they are also upping the ante. Perhaps that SP change can shake things up for them, too. Keep in mind their flawed LP @ CoR w/ a UR and Fall by Amanda in the SBS 3toes still garnered close to 111 pts. Like Y/C, they were better at Nats and look to improve overall.

    Under no illusion that we'll definitely get 3 spots, but I think the US has a very outside shot.

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