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  1. #81
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    But Ando code-whores and does 5 out of 7 jumping passes in the 2nd half (getting 10% bonus).

    I see the following as realistic results from USA:

    Czisny - 6th
    Flatt - 8th
    Ladies - 6+8 = 14 (2 spots - just missing 3 spots)

    Bradley - 15th
    Dornbush -12th
    Miner - 20th
    Men = 15+12 = 27 (*barely* getting 2 spots - dangerously close to 1 spot)

    Y&C 7th
    E&L 8th
    Pairs = 7+8 = 15 (2 spots)

    D&W 1st
    Shibs 8th
    C&Z 13th
    Dance = 1+8 = 9 (3 spots)

    To be honest, Hersh is right. It sounds "doom and gloom", but he is just being a realist and speaking honestly.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex View Post
    I am wondering how well Ryan's freeskate will go over with the international judges...
    The Base Value of the planned program is somewhere around 85 points. If he executes everything as planned, the international judges will respect it well enough, notwithstanding his less than stellar skating skills. If he botches both of his quadruple toe loops and both of his triple axels, it will not go over very well at all.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twilight1 View Post
    I still remember the 1996 Olympics and the chanting U.S.A when they weren't on the floor for gymnastics and I'm not not sure if it was the Romanians or Russians on the beam. I actually found that somewhat revolting. If their is some unrest in the world about the US and sports, in some cases, it is warranted. I am not saying that is always the case, but the media in the US really play up their athletes even when it isn't warranted, so for this reporter to undervalue the US skating team really comes as a surprise to me.
    Reminds me of Vancouver when the crowd was chanting "Canada! Canada!" right before D/W skated their free dance.
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  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by shuilee View Post
    But Ando code-whores and does 5 out of 7 jumping passes in the 2nd half (getting 10% bonus).
    I agree with that, I was just refuting the likelihood of a 7-triple performance, as was suggested by another poster.

  5. #85
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    Ando does 6 triples and 2 double axels in her FS, 5 out of 7 jumping passes are in the 2nd half, and two of those passes are big point getting combos - 2a-3t, 2a-2lo-2lo. So she really can get huge TES easily, she may not be attempting 7 triples but the way her program is constructed she can really rack up the points.

  6. #86
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    If Bradley goes to worlds and lands quads in both programs he'll probably finish in the top 10. At Nationals his quad looked very consistent in practice. The one in the SP was a beauty but he fell out of both attempts in the LP. He needs more practice time and he'll get it with worlds not for another 7 weeks. Is Bradley any worse than Menshov? I don't think so and Menshov finished what 3rd in the LP at Europeans by landing 2 quads. Obviously the medals are going to come down to Chan and the 3 Japanese guys and Joubert should be top 5 if he skates well but after that its a real crapshoot. Bradley has the technical ability to be in the 7-10 range with 2 solid skates.

    I really don't expect Bradley to finish where he did last year. He was injured at worlds and was unprepared for it. This year is a different story. Just because a guy's been to 2 worlds and finished 12th and 18th doesn't mean that's where he always going to finish. Going in as US champion should help him politically somewhat as opposed to being the 3rd US guy.

    Also for the US Richard Dornbush is a wonderful young skater. He dominated on the JR gp circuit this season. If he can keep his nerves and skate well a 10-12th place is very likely for him.

    On paper it does appear that the US will lose a spot for next year though but getting 2 won't be a problem.

    BTW, Russia apparently is sending Grachinski to worlds instead of Menshov! I bet he doesn't make top 10 thus giving Russia only 1 men once again for 2012.

  7. #87
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    The US has an excellent chance at a medal in dance. Unfortunately, that won't increase US viewership and therefore competitive skating on broadcast or cable TV. It didn't with B/A. Pairs? Yeah right. I'd be thrilled if there's a top 10 finish, but I wouldn't bet one penny of vcash. Men, top 10 maybe, but doubtful. I think one spot will be gone. Hopefully we can get it back by 2013 so we have 3 spots for the Os. Ladies: I really can't guess. Frankly, there's no consistent female skaters anywhere. It could be anything from a medal to out of the top 10. It wouldn't have been any different if Mirai had gone rather than Alissa or Rachael. Ladies is totally up in the air.

    Medals to matter in regards to funding, advertising, and TV (which is a huge revenue booster to the USFSA). They may not matter to international fans, but they do matter to the home country federations just like Olympic medals matter.
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  8. #88
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    The US has an excellent chance at a medal in dance. Unfortunately, that won't increase US viewership and therefore competitive skating on broadcast or cable TV. It didn't with B/A. Pairs? Yeah right. I'd be thrilled if there's a top 10 finish, but I wouldn't be one penny of vcash. Men, top 10 maybe, but doubtful. I think one spot will be gone. Hopefully we can get it back by 2013 so we have 3 spots for the Os. Ladies: I really can't guess. Frankly, there's no consistent female skaters anywhere. It could be anything from a medal to out of the top 10. It wouldn't have been any different if Mirai had gone rather than Alissa or Rachael. Ladies is totally up in the air.

    Medals do matter in regards to funding, advertising, and TV (which is a huge revenue booster to the USFSA). They may not matter to international fans, but they do matter to the home country federations just like Olympic medals matter.
    Adelina Sotnikova defeated the curse of Esta She is indeed the Greatest Of All Time!

  9. #89

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    Quote Originally Posted by topaz View Post
    I agree but it is a hard pill for many figure skating journalists, US journalists to accept. Hard for some fans too. Especially in the ladies and Men's field. The US haven't been strong in pairs in over a decade. The sport that the US will likely to get a medal doesn't get the praise or notice, i.e. Dance. That's why Dance is my favorite discipline. It never fails to excite me and the competition is always at a high level.
    Ice dance isn't my favorite, but clearly it is very popular amongst many skating fans. Personally, I don't think that the USFSA or ISU has tried to market it properly...

  10. #90

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    You just never know, they are all capable of anything.

    Czisny - between 3rd - 10th
    Flatt - between 6th-15th


    Bradley - 7-15th
    Dornbush -5th - 18th
    Miner - 12th-24th

    Y&C 8th-12th
    E&L 8th -12th

    D&W 1st or 2nd
    Shibs 8th -12th
    C&Z 10th -14th


    So only 2 medal shots IMO, one guaranteed.
    I think it makes things interesting.

  11. #91
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    the picture for worlds will become a bit clearer at 4cc's.
    it does depend on how men, ladies skate at worlds--mistakes.

  12. #92
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    The men will do fine. Definitely 2 spots and I would bet on them getting their 3 spots. I feel like most of Worlds Men's LP pbp threads from the last couple of years have been filled with " The US men are going to lose a spot unless X# of skaters bomb" and they always manage it in the end. In 2008 they scraped by with a 3rd and 10th and in 2007 with 5th and 8th.

    Only the Japanese men and Chan are guaranteed to be at the top. The European men this season are not in good form. I do hope Joubert can keep up with his 5-year World medal streak at least. Dornbush's score at US Nats was 225.56 vs Amodio 226.86 at Euros and I don't think Dornbush's scores were that inflated considering he skated early. I see him getting into the penultimate group after his SP and then moving up to around 6th overall. Miner or Bradley are capable of pulling off 7th place with clean skates. Dornbush could also pull a Brezina '10/Oda '06 and finish as high as 4th.

    Pairs - Don't see the US being higher than 7th, but should have at least 1 in the top 10, possibly both. So two spots.

    Ladies - Don't really care, but I think Alissa could medal and Rachel will probably be top 10.

    Dance - No problem keeping 3. Even if D&W place 3rd which is the lowest they can possibly place, Shibs are solid for top 10. I see them pulling a V&M and finishing 6th in their debut. So technically perfect and oh so boring and uncontroversial.

  13. #93

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    I'd be thrilled if Alissa made the final flight for ladies.

    And if it hasn't been addressed, the US doing well at worlds = more TV $$ over time, so that's why we care

    Phanuef's skating is looking better than ever, I'm actually starting to root for her.

    If all goes to form, final flight for ladies should be Kim, Asada, Ando, Kostner, Czisny and Phaneuf.

    Men's is kind of scary, but I don't think USFSA is too worried simply because this is their MOVE ON year. They don't see Jeremy in Sochi, so why hold down a youngster at this point. I feel really bad for Rippon, though Please god, let the men keep 3 spots somehow!!!
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  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by shuilee View Post
    But Ando code-whores and does 5 out of 7 jumping passes in the 2nd half (getting 10% bonus).

    I see the following as realistic results from USA:

    Czisny - 6th
    Flatt - 8th
    Ladies - 6+8 = 14 (2 spots - just missing 3 spots)

    Bradley - 15th
    Dornbush -12th
    Miner - 20th
    Men = 15+12 = 27 (*barely* getting 2 spots - dangerously close to 1 spot)

    Y&C 7th
    E&L 8th
    Pairs = 7+8 = 15 (2 spots)

    D&W 1st
    Shibs 8th
    C&Z 13th
    Dance = 1+8 = 9 (3 spots)

    To be honest, Hersh is right. It sounds "doom and gloom", but he is just being a realist and speaking honestly.
    Agreed. At least in ladies, the only reason I see it being any different is if Czisny steps up to the plate (fat chance) and delivers- AND many of the other Euro and Japanese ladies stumble. This might put her on the podium which would require Flatt only to stay in the top 10 to get 3 spots back. But that's just one scenario that is unlikely to happen.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by TanithandBenFan View Post
    Reminds me of Vancouver when the crowd was chanting "Canada! Canada!" right before D/W skated their free dance.
    Truth.

  16. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coco View Post

    If all goes to form, final flight for ladies should be Kim, Asada, Ando, Kostner, Czisny and Phaneuf.
    A clean Korpi, Murakami and Makarova would probably beat a couple of those ladies in the Short. Every single name mentioned here, could have a splatfest. Who knows what's going to happen.

    Murakami is probably the most consistent this year...

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by poths View Post
    Murakami is probably the most consistent this year...
    Possible, but so far she just doesn't do it for me. She's got a killer 3T-3T, but other than that... meh.

  18. #98

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    Poths, if all goes to form, Korpi will fall or pop something in the SP.

    I know that Murakami will probably make the final flight, but I'm pulling for Kostner and the two north americans to get in there. If politics makes it happen, for once I won't be upset.
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  19. #99

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coco View Post
    Poths, if all goes to form, Korpi will fall or pop something in the SP.
    Has she missed a SP this season though? TEB- clean, Finlandia- clean, Nationals- clean, Europeans- clean...


    The LP is where the pops and splats take place.

    However, I do admire her for having every triple in her program.

    If politics makes it happen, for once I won't be upset
    So politics are acceptable if they are favouring your skaters?

  20. #100

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    Quote Originally Posted by poths View Post
    So politics are acceptable if they are favouring your skaters?
    Isn't that always the case in figure skating?

    I think Murakami is awesome, if she skates clean she'll rightfully get good PCS. Her speed, edging and personality on the ice are a joy to watch.

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