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  1. #61

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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    ... Bradley's PCS is in the same league with the Chinese men. Dornbush has no senior international experiences. Miner is... too minor to be reckoned. Granted keeping two spots, it may be better to give chances to young skaters to prove themselves. Sending the "best" US men, Abbott and Rippon (in terms of PCS) is not a guarantee anyway.
    Just out of curiosity, how much senior international experience did Lysacek have when he medaled at the '05 Worlds? While I also doubt that Bradley will do all that well (he is the US champ and so, I think he's jinxed), I think that Miner and Dornbush may really make a good impression.

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    Quote Originally Posted by attyfan View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how much senior international experience did Lysacek have when he medaled at the '05 Worlds? While I also doubt that Bradley will do all that well (he is the US champ and so, I think he's jinxed), I think that Miner and Dornbush may really make a good impression.
    "Good impressions" are enough for their future but not for 3 spots. I must say men's event of 2005 WC is the worst (lowest standard) competition since early 1990s. That won't be a good example for the question.


    Lysacek 2004-2005 season
    Skate America 5th
    Cup of Russia 5th
    Four Continents 1st

    Obviously better than Miner and Dornbush.
    Last edited by NMURA; 02-04-2011 at 03:11 PM.

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    "Good impressions" are enough for their future but not for 3 spots. I must say men's event of 2005 WC is the worst (lowest standard) competition since early 1990s. That won't be a good example for the question.
    ...
    I'm not so sure. Good impressions now can easily pay off big time in a year or two ... as opposed to having "newbies" trying to make their splash closer to the Olys, when there is less time to regain the three spots. Also, there was no idea going in to 2005 Worlds that it would be so bad ... and there is no way of knowing whether 2011 will be the same.

  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigB08822 View Post
    Honestly, I wish people would quit posting his articles.
    I don't. It invites and encourages discussion and and . FSU THRIVES off of that stuff. Without it, we'd be as dull as dishwater.

    Or GoldenSkate .

  5. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex View Post
    I don't. It invites and encourages discussion and and . FSU THRIVES off of that stuff. Without it, we'd be as dull as dishwater.

    Or GoldenSkate .




    I think/hope the men will do better than expected. Honestly, if Dornbush skates like he did last weekend, I could see him in the top 10.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by mgobluegirl View Post
    I think, in the highly unlikely event that all of the ladies you listed and the two American girls were to all skate their very best, Czisny and Flatt would both finish somewhere in the middle of the above group. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that a clean Czisny is better than all of the above except for a clean Kim, Asada, and possibly Ando.
    I say if all went clean or almost clean, including both TES and PCS and GOE, the order will be:
    1.Kim, 2.Asada, 3.Ando, 4-6.Kanako/Kostner/Cizney, 7.Flatt, 8+ the two Russians, Finishs, Elene etc.

    And because of the limited 2A, no ladies seem to have any sizable TES advantage, except Ando if she goes for 7 triple with 3Lz+3Lo (even with < it will bank her 9 points) and Asada if she goes for 2 triple Axels. But I say Ando is more likely to hit the 7 triples than Asada, but Mao can get more GOE on non jumps elements so it kind of even out.

    Kim still win if she hit a clean SP and LP (6 triples) bc of her PCS and GOE on jumps, but the gap will not be like a skyscraper margin. Question is will she hit a clean LP. All her 4 previous world LP, she at least pop jumps or falls. A big question mark. Also will she bring back 3Loop and how consistent is her 3S?

    The next three Kanako, Cizney, Kostner, anything can happen. Kanako is the most consistent of the three, follow by Cizney (so far), but if Kostner goes clean the judges will place her a head of the former two. But in term of PCS, Cizney can get the highest and what going cost her is the downgrade and pop/fall on jumps if she flater.

    Flatt has been up and down this season. Her cleanest skate so far is at SA, but she got < on jumps and her PCS is getting worse. But she still way better than the European ladies.

    The rest of the ladies, they have the highest chances of bombing.

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    Davis/White are my favorites, but after viewing Grand Prix Final, and attending Nats, I'm not certain they can snatch World Gold whether V/M are there, or not. I believe that those two teams from the same stable really pushed each other and V/M's absence this season has had a telling effect on D/W. While the D/W Olympic FD was breathtaking and honed to perfection, the same cannot be said for this season. Something is missing....they lack a crispness and refinement....and yes, they lack V/M breathing down their competitive necks!

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domshabfan View Post
    There is no guarantee of them winning it especially if V/M returns. The GPF champion does not mean you automatically win the title.
    And being OGM means you automatically DO win the title after injury, lack of practice and lack of experience this season? In what world is that fair?

  9. #69

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    No one is saying the title will be handed to V&M, but assuming that they are going to be a hot mess come World's isn't exactly accurate either. Never mind that D&W have to stay on their feet.

    I think P&B, D&W and V&M will be on the podium but who knows what will happen. If P&B sneak up for the win, I wouldn't be surprised
    ~I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% how I react to it.~ (Charles R. Swindoll)

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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderlen View Post
    I say if all went clean or almost clean, including both TES and PCS and GOE, the order will be:
    1.Kim, 2.Asada, 3.Ando, 4-6.Kanako/Kostner/Cizney, 7.Flatt, 8+ the two Russians, Finishs, Elene etc.

    And because of the limited 2A, no ladies seem to have any sizable TES advantage, except Ando if she goes for 7 triple with 3Lz+3Lo (even with < it will bank her 9 points) and Asada if she goes for 2 triple Axels. But I say Ando is more likely to hit the 7 triples than Asada, but Mao can get more GOE on non jumps elements so it kind of even out.

    Kim still win if she hit a clean SP and LP (6 triples) bc of her PCS and GOE on jumps, but the gap will not be like a skyscraper margin. Question is will she hit a clean LP. All her 4 previous world LP, she at least pop jumps or falls. A big question mark. Also will she bring back 3Loop and how consistent is her 3S?

    The next three Kanako, Cizney, Kostner, anything can happen. Kanako is the most consistent of the three, follow by Cizney (so far), but if Kostner goes clean the judges will place her a head of the former two. But in term of PCS, Cizney can get the highest and what going cost her is the downgrade and pop/fall on jumps if she flater.

    Flatt has been up and down this season. Her cleanest skate so far is at SA, but she got < on jumps and her PCS is getting worse. But she still way better than the European ladies.

    The rest of the ladies, they have the highest chances of bombing.
    Decent analysis.

    I would say at this point though that Czisny has an advantage over Murakami and Kostner:

    Czisny over Murakami because I have a feeling that Murakami will be held down PCS-wise at Worlds due to the fact that 1) she is the #3 JPN lady, and 2) She is a newcomer with overall juniorish presentation.

    Czisny over Kostner because while Czisny appears to be technically improving at every competition since TEB, Kostner hit a rut at Euros and is even more capable than Czisny of disastrous performances at this point.

    A relatively clean Czisny already beat a clean Kostner and relatively clean Murakami at the GPF in China.

    Czisny also still has the highest ISU score this season [180+ pts.]. BUT, I still think her medal chances will depend largely upon what shape Ando, Kim and Asada will be in.

    Czisny beat Ando as well at the GPF, but Ando was breaking in a new and better SP there and wasn't at her best, so I wouldn't bank too much on that one competition. Ando has been killing it in the LP this season, too. Asada appears to be following the same path as in '09 - '10. We will get a good preview of both at 4CCs in a couple of weeks.

    Kim is a complete mystery to me: Debuting at Worlds after a coaching change with the pressure of being #1 for someone that is not infallible is risky. She should be on the podium somewhere but who knows.

    I also have a feeling that Flatt will be somewhere from 5th - 9th, depending on 1) a 3-3 or 2)Kostner, Phaneuf or Korpi holding it together or not. I'm not sure how relevant the Russians Leonova and Makarova are at this point because they've been sub-par in the majority of their competitions. I hope Flatt finally feels confident to put in a 3-3 by 4CCs or Worlds, because that would boost her. She's smartly changed the SP, which was weak for her this last Fall.

    US has an excellent chance of 3 spots for 2012, but I'm afraid to jinx it.
    Last edited by olympic; 02-04-2011 at 11:27 PM.

  11. #71
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    I was about to say that a clean Czisny could threaten a clean Ando and Kostner.

    You didn't hear anything, skategods.
    "Nature is a damp, inconvenient sort of place where birds and animals wander about uncooked."

    from Speedy Death

  12. #72
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    Mark Ladwig posted this on FB in regards to this article:

    Thank You Philip Hersh, You give me great motivation heading into Worlds this season.

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    But what if Hersh has a valid point?
    I am wondering how well Ryan's freeskate will go over with the international judges...

  14. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex View Post
    But what if Hersh has a valid point?
    I am wondering how well Ryan's freeskate will go over with the international judges...
    Probably about as well as any of his freeskates have gone over with them
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  15. #75

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    Rex, the free skate of Bradley did not go over well with the judges last season so I doubt it will at Worlds. International judges, I've noticed don't really enjoy Bradley's style.

    Who know if Dornbush can handle the pressure of worlds. He's probably the best chance of a top 10 finish. Either way the US men are gonna be hard pressured to secure a top 10 finish, imo. I do think that the Japanese men will do very well at Worlds. The Japanese team usually excels at competitions in Japan.

    Ladies -Its very unpredictably, I think Mao will defend her title, she usually skates well in Japan. There is an excellent chance that all Japanese women will finish above Alissa and Rachel; I expect a "rusty" Ya Na Kim will still be a top 3 or 4 finisher.

    Pairs - Are Sui/Han competiting? Even not, the US may be able to finish a top 10. As mentioned 3 Russian teams, German, 1 or 2 Chinese Team and Canadian team. However isnt T/T competiting for Japan? Pairs, they'll probably be able to secure 2 spots, 3 spots would be very aggressive thinking.

    Dance - Danger of not retaining 3 spots. I don't know of S/S and C/G would be able to finish top 8. That will be hard, imo.
    Last edited by topaz; 02-05-2011 at 02:53 AM.
    "“My bronze feels like gold,” said the bronze medalist Carolina Kostner

  16. #76

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    Probably about as well as any of his freeskates have gone over with them
    Quote Originally Posted by topaz View Post
    Rex, the free skate of Bradley did not go over well with the judges last season so I doubt it will at Worlds. International judges, I've noticed don't really enjoy Bradley's style.

    Who know if Dornbush can handle the pressure of worlds. He's probably the best chance of a top 10 finish. Either way the US men are gonna be hard pressured to secure a top 10 finish, imo. I do think that the Japanese men will do very well at Worlds. The Japanese team usually excels at competitions in Japan.

    Ladies -Its very unpredictably, I think Mao will defend her title, she usually skates well in Japan. There is an excellent chance that all Japanese women will finish above Alissa and Rachel; I expect a "rusty" Ya Na Kim will still be a top 3 or 4 finisher.

    Pairs - Are Sui/Han competiting? Even not, the US may be able to finish a top 10(
    And like the Roman Empire, so goeth the age of dominance of US figure skating.....I'm skeert!

  17. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex View Post
    And like the Roman Empire, so goeth the age of dominance of US figure skating.....I'm skeert!
    I agree but it is a hard pill for many figure skating journalists, US journalists to accept. Hard for some fans too. Especially in the ladies and Men's field. The US haven't been strong in pairs in over a decade. The sport that the US will likely to get a medal doesn't get the praise or notice, i.e. Dance. That's why Dance is my favorite discipline. It never fails to excite me and the competition is always at a high level.
    "“My bronze feels like gold,” said the bronze medalist Carolina Kostner

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by topaz View Post
    Dance - Danger of not retaining 3 spots. I don't know of S/S and C/G would be able to finish top 8. That will be hard, imo.
    Who said anything about top 8? If by chance Davis and White win, the next best US team only has to finish 12th.

  19. #79

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    Quote Originally Posted by mgobluegirl View Post
    Who said anything about top 8? If by chance Davis and White win, the next best US team only has to finish 12th.
    Shhhhh.....

    The Shibs and C/Z finished 8th and 9th (I think?) in the GP standings and each medaled in both of their events. Yes, some teams were out (Kerrs) but there may be other teams that finished ahead of them (Nora/Max) that they might beat at Worlds. I think at least one of them (maybe both) could finish top 10, especially if they skate the way they did at Nats.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderlen View Post
    I say if all went clean or almost clean, including both TES and PCS and GOE, the order will be:
    1.Kim, 2.Asada, 3.Ando, 4-6.Kanako/Kostner/Cizney, 7.Flatt, 8+ the two Russians, Finishs, Elene etc.

    And because of the limited 2A, no ladies seem to have any sizable TES advantage, except Ando if she goes for 7 triple with 3Lz+3Lo (even with < it will bank her 9 points) and Asada if she goes for 2 triple Axels. But I say Ando is more likely to hit the 7 triples than Asada, but Mao can get more GOE on non jumps elements so it kind of even out.
    Ando hasn't done a 3flip in her lp for years now. She isn't even attempting 7 triples.

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