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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbk View Post
    I...

    For the guys -- I'm hoping that Ryan goes back to Colorado Springs and works his patootie off building stamina and rechoreographing the middle of his LP. I like Ryan, but that looked more like an improv section, and was sloppy to boot. If Ryan can land a quad in the short (and stay upright on everything else) and can land two quads in the long (and stay upright or with most one fall/pop) I'd think he'd stay in the top 6. Clean, maybe 3-4.
    I don't think that will happen. Chan, Kozuka, Oda, Takahashi, Joubert, Amodio, Březina, Verner, and Gachinskii will be duking it out for the podium. I think that best case scenario, he could finish in the top 10 if he puts out two clean programs.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

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  3. #43
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    IMO, Alyssa has an outside shot at the ladies' podium at Worlds but a top 5 finish would be a very good result for her given her history at Worlds. Given Rachel's injuries and her scores in Beijing, a top 10 finish would be good. Frankly, I'll be surprised if she skates in the final warmup group.

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    OK, it's V/T in the place of M/T etc.,

    Quote Originally Posted by oleada View Post
    Yes, but Volosozhar/Trankov are going to be there, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch have improved and will be there, and Duhamel/Radford can certainly score similarly.
    With V/T in the place of M/T and two good new teams who could be in the top ten to replace the two that are gone, that still leaves a good probability of keeping E/L (or Y/C since their GP results are similar) in the top ten (probably somewhere between 8-10, but that seems to be the general consensus).

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    3 Chinese Teams? The only Chinese team that will finish ahead of Y/C and E/L is P/T.

    H/W ahead of them? I'll have to check but Y/C and E/L were ahead of them during the GP season

    Ditto Duhamel and partner. Were they ahead of Y/C and E/L on the GP circuit? If they vastly improved by CAN Nats, so did the 2 American Pairs. I'm under no illusion that they'll medal, but jeez it sounds like people are selling them short...

    Alissa and Rachael maybe in the top 10? Who will place ahead of them??
    Will Sui and Han not compete at Worlds because of her birthday? Because if they are competing there, they can definitely finish ahead of Y/C and E/L if they skate like they have been all season.

    The ladies field is so inconsistent for the most part that you never know what could happen. Ladies capable of finishing ahead of Rachael and Alissa are: Yuna, Miki, Mao, Kanako, Carolina, Kiira, Laura, Alena, Ksenia, Cynthia so that's 10 ladies right there but of course for 7 out of those 10 a bomb is very possible. So potentially, Alissa and Rachael could both be out of the top 10, but chances are everyone else I mentioned won't all deliver at Worlds, so they should be fine.

    As for Ryan, he is very comparable to Samuel Contesti so his chances are about the same as Samuel's - podium out of reach, slim chance for top 5 (Contesti was 5th in 09), should be comfortably in the top 10 if clean, if makes mistakes, could drop way down in the standings. The quad maybe gives Ryan an edge but Contesti maybe can get slightly higher PCS.

    The main competition for all 3 US men won't be the Japanese men and Chan, but mainly the European men. Amodio, Joubert, Verner, Brezina, Fernandez, Contesti, Gatchinski and then Sawyer, Menshov, and Denis Ten if he's back on track. That's 10 skaters there plus the 4 podium favorites. Of course, the condition of Brezina, Fernandez, Gatchinski could play a factor and they don't seem to be totally back to normal yet. And then Sawyer, Menshov, Ten can be headcases. There are a lot of good men this year, but like the ladies, a lot of them are unpredictable.

  6. #46
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    In GS I read that Bradley would prepare a Willy Wonka lp if he had time, that would be a very cool change of Lp.

  7. #47

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    I think Bradley should stick with the Mozart LP and work on polishing it up and getting the two quads consistent. Switching to a new LP this late in the game could be disastrous.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Will Sui and Han not compete at Worlds because of her birthday? Because if they are competing there, they can definitely finish ahead of Y/C and E/L if they skate like they have been all season.
    No. They are too young this year. With Zhangs injured, that leaves 1 CHN pair

    The ladies field is so inconsistent for the most part that you never know what could happen. Ladies capable of finishing ahead of Rachael and Alissa are: Yuna, Miki, Mao, Kanako, Carolina, Kiira, Laura, Alena, Ksenia, Cynthia so that's 10 ladies right there but of course for 7 out of those 10 a bomb is very possible. So potentially, Alissa and Rachael could both be out of the top 10, but chances are everyone else I mentioned won't all deliver at Worlds, so they should be fine.
    I have to disagree on the following - relatively clean Kanako and clean Kostner were beaten by relatively clean Czisny at the GPF. Rachael also beat Kanako and Kostner in the LP of SA w/ Rachael having various problems. I also don't see anything thus far from Ksenia, Alena and Cynthia that should scare either one of them at this point. Kiira doesn't appear to be able to skate a clean LP.

    As for Ryan, he is very comparable to Samuel Contesti so his chances are about the same as Samuel's - podium out of reach, slim chance for top 5 (Contesti was 5th in 09), should be comfortably in the top 10 if clean, if makes mistakes, could drop way down in the standings. The quad maybe gives Ryan an edge but Contesti maybe can get slightly higher PCS. The main competition for all 3 US men won't be the Japanese men and Chan, but mainly the European men. Amodio, Joubert, Verner, Brezina, Fernandez, Contesti, Gatchinski and then Sawyer, Menshov, and Denis Ten if he's back on track. That's 10 skaters there plus the 4 podium favorites. Of course, the condition of Brezina, Fernandez, Gatchinski could play a factor and they don't seem to be totally back to normal yet. And then Sawyer, Menshov, Ten can be headcases. There are a lot of good men this year, but like the ladies, a lot of them are unpredictable.
    I agree with you about Ryan, but for me it's all about Dornbush these days! He'll do fine

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    I think Bradley should stick with the Mozart LP and work on polishing it up and getting the two quads consistent. Switching to a new LP this late in the game could be disastrous.
    I know but i got excited with the idea, I think it would suit him great. ANyway since he has it for exhibition, exhibition is cool also.

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    I was actually hoping he would do a Willie Wonka LP at National's; I was a little disappointed to learn that he's be the Mozart LP again. Oh, well.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frau Muller View Post
    And P/T are also Russian, I see (like M-T/M).
    Moral of the story:Its never good to write skating when you should be working on the thesis.

    I have corrected the mistake.

  12. #52

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    I see that Menshov was mentioned and Russia will only have Gachinski for one their one spot. If Gachinksi does not place in the top 10 then only one spot again for Russia in 2012.

  13. #53

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    If Gachinksii skates reasonably clean he can pull off a top 10 finish. I think he's a long shot for a medal, though.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twilight1 View Post
    I still remember the 1996 Olympics and the chanting U.S.A when they weren't on the floor for gymnastics and I'm not not sure if it was the Romanians or Russians on the beam. I actually found that somewhat revolting. If their is some unrest in the world about the US and sports, in some cases, it is warranted. I am not saying that is always the case, but the media in the US really play up their athletes even when it isn't warranted, so for this reporter to undervalue the US skating team really comes as a surprise to me.
    But, it is the US media. Do other countries media not play up their athletes?

  15. #55

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    If Gachinksii skates reasonably clean he can pull off a top 10 finish. I think he's a long shot for a medal, though.
    He is a long shot for a medal. I believe the second to last skating group is where he will be in the free skate. So 7-12 for a final ranking could be likely. He does seem to have a strong SP and then fall down the standings-except for Russian nationals.

    I have no idea where to place Dornbish and Miner. I mean both of them did not seem like medal contenders at US nationals with their SPs but then of course would win silver and bronze. So they could go up from wherever they land. Possibly also the third to last group or second to last group.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Ladies capable of finishing ahead of Rachael and Alissa are: Yuna, Miki, Mao, Kanako, Carolina, Kiira, Laura, Alena, Ksenia, Cynthia so that's 10 ladies right there but of course for 7 out of those 10 a bomb is very possible.
    I think, in the highly unlikely event that all of the ladies you listed and the two American girls were to all skate their very best, Czisny and Flatt would both finish somewhere in the middle of the above group. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that a clean Czisny is better than all of the above except for a clean Kim, Asada, and possibly Ando.

  17. #57

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomad View Post
    I don't think that will happen. Chan, Kozuka, Oda, Takahashi, Joubert, Amodio, Březina, Verner, and Gachinskii will be duking it out for the podium. I think that best case scenario, he could finish in the top 10 if he puts out two clean programs.
    I'd be shocked if they all went clean. If Chan, Kozuka, Oda and Takahashi all go clean or relatively clean it will be interesting to see the podium -- but even with minor flaws, I'd expect at least three of them to score ahead of the rest of the pack -- the other guys are more likely than not to have some significant problems. Three quads from Ryan would make a big difference.

  18. #58

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    I think at least half of them will skate cleanly enough to keep Bradley off the podium, though. I like Bradley, but what he lacks in speed and spins, plus his tendency to make errors in big events, will hurt him in a deep field like this.
    My job requires me to be a juggler, but that does not mean that I enjoy working with clowns.

  19. #59
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    I think the US men are at a disadvantage, not sending their world team to taipei for 4CC to stack themselves against the men from CAN and JPN is such a disadvantage. This would give them valuble points for their ranking as when it comes to drawing for positions for worlds for their short program. The US men will probably be draw early to skate, they may not be able to benefit themselves to comparing them to the medal contenders/top 12 who skate later in the competition. We all know how the judges tend to judge earlier in the competitions, pretty conservatively, even when skated cleanly.

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    I don't think the US men have any chances to keep three spots. The minimum condition is at least one of them to place within the sixth, which probably requires 230+ points. Their US nationals level performances won't be enough for that purpose. Three Japanese men, Chan, Joubert and Amodio are likely to make the top six. Joubert could be the weakest among them but he's usually well prepared for worlds and he has good track records in Japan. I guess even the USFSA is not caring about three spots. If so, they can't afford not to send their men to 4CC. Bradley's PCS is in the same league with the Chinese men. Dornbush has no senior international experiences. Miner is... too minor to be reckoned. Granted keeping two spots, it may be better to give chances to young skaters to prove themselves. Sending the "best" US men, Abbott and Rippon (in terms of PCS) is not a guarantee anyway.

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